Nilgiri
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Prediction States that indian rupee will loose more value likely will hit 76rs that will be almost 25% loss in 18 months, given large CAD...
but crisis will not happen given independence of state bank..
Now state bank cheif has resigned (due to pressure?) and that's that ...
We will see....right now oil (large part of CAD widening in Q2) seems to be going to hold at relatively low price level for some time....more local production of previously heavy import items is also coming online (and helped by GST and IBC reforms)....let us see.
https://www.indiatoday.in/business/...india-s-solid-growth-story-1405911-2018-12-10
Yes Urjit Patel resigned...probably didnt like govt challenging for more local use of forex/capital buffers given RBI has for some time now has over-predicted inflation (thus more liquidity space has very likely opened up in larger economy compared to the modelling):
https://www.financialexpress.com/ec...al-math-liquidity-to-remain-in-focus/1401801/
combined with election year coming up (and govt wants to have enough wallet space).
He will be replaced hopefully by someone better. Interim guy I don't know much about him.
Pakistan shoild learn from this..had we keot state bank and rupee flexible in 2016 today everything would have been fine
Fundamentally there is no major flaw in economy it was artificially created by poor governance
Yes it was basically effectively subsidy transfer from capital to current account....to create some optics rather than improvement:
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/macro-adjustments-to-hurt-economic-growth.590569/#post-11002816
I.K govt/SBP needs to rectify this policy of level-pegging and introduce more free float for sure.