Darmashkian's Post-Poll analysis of Bihar 2015
Firstly I sincerely & with a bowed head apologize to one & all for posting wrong predictions last week regarding Bihar & misguiding all of you. I m very sorry for my wrong predictions & hope you can forgive me for getting it wrong.
This time I can say with full & total confidence that this analysis is way more accurate than my previous analysis & by a better margin. I can say this after checking Praveen Patil's articles one again after his predictions turned out to be tru & also checking/confirming with some twitter accounts of "some" good psephologists who were pessimistic & closer to the final outcome.
I also read some articles, checked the reactions of all sides after the results came out & read it b/w the lines & applied my logic & common sense.
This time I guarantee you that this analysis is more accurate
Just 1 week back, the results for the Bihar Assembly Election came out, results which one could say shocked the NDA & the pollsters & which came as a delight for the MGB & it's constituent parties especially the RJD & the Congress.
The Mahagathbandhan won 178 seats with a Vote-share of 41.9% & the NDA-58 seats a voteshare of 34.1.
A voteshare difference of 7.8%, this HUGE difference in voteshare b/w both side would lead to the decimation of the BJP & a grand victory for the MGB.
Few of the prominent pollsters could believe their eyes on seeing this result. Even the BJP whose leaders where expecting 130-140 seats were horrified & baffled. I can say that even many in the MGB must have been surprised & shocked on seeing such results!
One of my predictions was proved correct, the MGB is a strong but highly volatile combination. If it works it will be highly effective & trash the opposition. If it doesn't the MGB will be destroyed
The seats of the individual parties are below:-
1)MGB:-
RJD-80
JDU-71
Congress-27
2)NDA:-
BJP-53
LJP-2
RLSP-
HAM-1
-
CPI(ML)-3
Independents-4
BUT how did the MGB do so well?? I will explain below with points & after that an explanation . I will also dispel a few myths which are spreading through social media on why the BJP did so bad.
What worked for the MGB:-
1)Caste,Caste & Jati
This has been proved by the fact that Lalu Prasad Yadav'RJD got 80 seats & 14 of his nominated/chosen candidates won on a Congress ticket.
If you ask me this is the Biggest Reason behind the victory of the MGB. The vote-transfer of Muslims, Koeris,Kurmis & Yadavs etc i.e. the traditional vote-banks of the parties in the MGB between each other was all but complete & took place without any hitches, which was highly surprising.
The Muslim consolidation towards the MGB was the largest of any community & close behind it was the Yadav community which desired the return of "Yadav Raj" (under lalu).
Also let me point out that a good portion of the election rhetoric from the MGB & it's leaders was purely on caste lines & especially from Lalu Yadav who made caste & abusing UCs the core of his campaign.
Lalu campaigning from village to village(for the Yadav dominated villages) played the caste card to the maximum, whether it be playing the emotional card, abusing upper castes, yadav pride etc
He made this a do or die election for the Yadav community & he succeeded in doing so.
Even the youth were more interested in voting based on caste lines & not on developmental/job lines.??.
Wherever he went he made the election a case of "Forwards vs Backwards" & played the banner of Yadav pride. He reminded the people of Upper caste atrocities of the past to make them emotionally charged to vote for a "pichdon ki parti".
Another interesting line RJD karyakartas used was:- "Nitishwas Dilli challa jayega kuch he samay mai, tab Lalu Bihar mai he rahega To is bar vote do Nitish ko"
I will not post some of the stuff which I suspect RJD karyakartas said/must have said due to lack of proof
Add to that the absolutely little leverage of the PM's backward origins from the BJP.
& all this worked brilliantly in one of the most casteist states of India.
Pappu Yadav himself said that one of the reasons MGB did well was because of a caste-wave that engulfed most of Bihar.
2)Reservation
"Aarakshan khatre me hain" was more or less one of the popular slogans of this alliance. Nitish & Lalu both used this to the maximum.
The controversy began after Mohan Bhagwat talked twice of the need of a review in the reservation system. This was taken by the MGB to the people as -"RSS wants to get rid of reservation, Modi is a puppet/chamcha of RSS. Just see how his party depends on them!!"
This was the biggest message of Nitish Kumar throughout the election that Modi wants to get rid of reservation & that thus, it is an Upper Caste Party.
This was one of the biggest reasons why the BJP was on the backfoot throughout the entire election! & when they finally responded it was too late. The message had already been taken to the people by the MGB leaders & karyakartas.
Lalu lead an excellent whisper campaign throughout Bihar on reservation especially in the rural areas. This was a truly excellent campaign by him
[Quoting Praveen Patil:- What is no longer a mystery is how RJD-JDU tapped the issue brilliantly. Just 48 hours before polling day, across all villages, many of the backward caste groups began meeting secretly to discuss “rumors” which indicated that if BJP came to power, they are not averse to “tinkering with the reservations because RSS has commanded the party to do so”. Upper Caste youths bragging about how BJP, once in power, would create a more level playing field in “Reservations” did not help matters at all.]
RJD karyakartas held many meetings among the OBCs about how reservation was in danger
Many OBC,EBC & SC Youth still depend on reservation to get a job in Bihar . Bihar is still a largely rural state,sadly. We all know how many Biharis leave Bihar to get a job.
[According to Praveen Patil- "Our estimates suggest that nearly half a million WhatsApp/Facebook messages on the “Reservations” issue were circulated in Bihar in the last ten days."]
Many of the aforementioned communities view reservation as a matter of pride & honour & that losing it would hurt that pride & honour & also their descendants.
Thus they voted to save "their rightful aarakshan"
This was largely avoidable, the BJP truly screwed up on this all because of one RSS maha-purush.[Also one must wonder what was Mohan Bhagwat thinking when he repeated this statement twice & when elections in Bihar were going on, was he sabotaging the BJP's chances??].
BJP leaders like Hukum Deo Yadav confirmed that this statement hurt them a lot after the results came out.
I can confirm that most SCs voted for the NDA, but most EBCs & OBCs for the MGB in large numbers.
3)Goodwill for Nitish Kumar:-
I have said this many times, there is a lot of goodwill for Nitish Kumar for the good work he did as CM. Some Biharis say he was possibly the best CM Bihar ever had since independence.
He is the most popular Bihari neta alive today! That is certain, one of my Bihar friends told me that there was no anti-incumbency against the JDU or most of it's MLAs as expected by everyone because of the good work done by Nitish Kumar.
Add to that the good work he did especially forKurmis,koeris, EBCs & Maha-Dalits who voted for his party JDU.
Even traditional NDA voters admit he did a good job as CM
Prashant Kishore leveraged his popularity heavily & tried to convince voters that JDU would control RJD(which any sensible mind should now is impossible). His PR & Election management skills were important towards the success of the MGB & more importantly the JDU. & all of it depended upon this one man
The above three are the primary reasons for the success of the MGB if you ask me.
4)One must note that MIM did very bad in Bihar in the 6 seats it contested. Muslim voters were clearly united for the MGB at all levels.
5)The third front hurt, but due to lack of cadre it couldn't hurt much as expected. Add to that the caste frenzy which lalu created across Bihar among Yadavs.
6)Lack Of Firm UC consolidation:-
The UC consolidation for the BJP was not as strong as the Muslims/Yadavs/Kurmis for the MGB. Maybe because of:-
(1)Infighting & what many saw as marginalization of UC leaders
(2)The local Bhumihar & Rajput chieftains in the JDU & RJD respectively got some votes for their parties
(3) The declaration of a non-UC will only be the CM candidate did help among some BCs & SCs, but further turned away some more UCs
Why the NDA Lost:-
1)Lack of good local leaders & failure in using them:-
The BJP campaign depended
heavily upon Modi & Shah with very little scope left for the other state leaders
Prashant Kishore used this opportunity to make this Nitish the CM-centric face of the campaign. TO remind people that NiKu would be the CM if they win while Modi would always remain the PM of India.
Also when ever Lalu made a retort in Bhojpuri, some local leader should have responded back with a Bhojpur/magadhi/maithli/any local dialect accent. I feel Modi's shuddh(pure) Hindi may not have been comprehendable by all, especially in rural Bihar
& the BJP depended heavily on the top-down style of approach i.e. in this case giving addressing large public rallies. Leaders like Manjhi,kushwaha & many local BJP leaders are NOT fit for such endeavors. The local nukkad sabha style rallies are more effective for such people. 5forty3 gives us an example by tellings us below WHY Manjhi wasn't used effectively:-
The same with RLSP & LJP & local BJP leaders..
I remember many people laughing at the lack of attendance in the MGB leader rallies & that they weren't half as big as modi.... Becuse they weren't supposed to be big in the first place!!
This nukkad style-local rally method which they adopted took them all over Bihar, they could address specific regions & castes & could appeal to them more without hurting other caste & areas(read what I said about Lalu above).
Their aim was to convince everybody in the small rally why to vote for them+a touch of aarakshan & caste.
ALSO
The BJP had a broad volatile social coalition ranged against it. Against that, what did it offer? Modi.
And that was it’s first and most cardinal mistake- a repeat of the same mistake it made in Delhi.
the Prime Minister cannot and will not win you every state election for the sake of god, especially in places where there are strong regional leaders.
BJP’s sweep of the Hindi heartland in the 2014 Lok Sabha election was powered by the assembling of a rainbow coalition of Hindus- the United Spectrum of Hindu Votes against a divided opposition.
This time the opposition united for the explicit version of defeating the BJP.
Like it or not it is the BJP Bihar Unit which will govern Bihar & Not Modi if they win & enough coverage wasn't given to the local leaders who would later rule Bihar.
Prashant Kishore & Lalu knew this & emphasized this point too. They repeated the point that Lalu & Niku would remain in Bihar & are of Bihar & Niku would be the CM.
I feel the Bihari vs Bahari tag must have played a role here
BJP should have propped up it's local leaders even more, but it wisely did not declare a CM candidate
2)Infighting & failure of Allies:-
There was tremendous infighting in the BJP.
About 20 seats were lost due to infighting & so were certain caste & regional groups who didn't vote for the BJP on voting day. In some cases BJP rebels won as independents.
I heard JP Nadda was responsible for the ticket distribution, if he was. He should be punished.
& by the way why was Ananth Kumar of all people made the Bihar incharge by the BJP?? Couldn't they find anybody better. This guy screwed up in Karnataka too by getting rid of Yeddyurappa whose end results we saw.
Allies miserably failed, possibly due to lack of cadre; no. of seats given to them; lack of knowledge about the symbol among the public. & also for the reason I highlighted above-lack of effective use.
3)Dal & Vegetable Prices:-
When arhar & tur dal is about 200 rupees, HOW can you expect people to come out & vote for you , especially the poor?
How can you talk about FDI, ease of business & GDP-terms which are incomprehensible to the common man when his basic needs like what he needs to eat to live -is becoming more & more expensive? & they feel Nothing is being done to address that.
& the agriculture minister instead of solving this crisis was campaigning in Bihar. Add to that the lack of clarification from the PM on what other state's had done by cracking down on hoarders & asking what NiKu had done.
Many people(even BJP voters) must have remembered this as they went to the polling booths.
4)Anger against the PM & overuse of Brand Namo:-
Like it or not there was a good number who were angry/disillusioned with the PM. Some due to propoganda spread by the opposition, some due to the high expectations they had(for which some of the blame falls on Modi) & some on parameters where they felt the Modi govt. has not done well on.
That 15 lakh rupees has made it's midst among the voters & so did reservation. People are now unhappy seeing the PM going on foreign trips. They think he is going to have fun & enjoy when he is actually doing a good job.
Also many people with a "socialist" mentality especially in the rural areas believe all this investments by big companies & factories won't help them much & will only help the rich.
Also some people are asking this question--> If Cong. party is really so corrupt? Why is there no case against them? Where are the chargesheets & the FIRs till now? Why aren't they in jail?
After a few years Congress party will repeatedly emphasize this point to prove that they are not corrupt & if anyone goes to jail after that, they will call Modi vindictive. -_-
Many people feel he has done nothing for them or for India either due to lack of knowledge or lack of publicity by the PM or the feeling that PM has not done this or that. Also the PM did not visit Bihar EVEN ONCE after LS-2014 till Bihar -2015 Even though Bihar gave him 32 seats. This was also a source of anger for many
Please read this brilliant article below by Praveen Patil which states how overuse of Brand Modi is hurting him now
Has The BJP Diluted Brand NaMo? | Swarajya
For almost every local issue, you use Modi's name. Then for every local problem the blame will be thrown upon Modi #factoflife
"Brand NaMo needs to be reinvented and reinvented fast. This whole top-down approach is now suffering the usual wear and tear of the law of diminishing returns. BJP as a party of governance needs to evolve into a more horizontal structure where in local faces can also be held accountable – what use is a towering leader like Chaudhary Birender Singh if he cannot command the presence of merely 1600 people for a public meeting?"
I was screaming this for a long time. Harbar Modi,Modi kekhe kuch nahin hoga. That will only work in the Lok Sabha Elections. In the state & municipal part Modi & Shah have to encourage local leaders & not weaken them as they did in Gujarat which is why there is no popular local leader in Gujarat today.
But who will explain this to
The Leader?
& the PM should focus more on bijli-sadak-pani-khana-ghar issues from now onwards & in the rural areas;for that seems to be the language understood by the people more appropriately & which could actually help them or get their votes
THESE are the Primary reasons for the defeat of the BJP if you ask me
CONCLUSION:-
Firstly this is a defeat of Modi first , then the BJP.
But as Yogendra Yadav said,the biggest loser of this election is Bihar & then the BJP. They have given Lalu Yadav 80 seats & the single largest party post ? Add to that 14 of his nominated candidates in the Congress also won.
I can understand giving JDU 95/105, & even Congress 35/41. But giving the Jungle Raaj party 80 seats out of 105?? The party which destroyed governance in Bihar & Bihar itself? THe party which gave a thrashing to Bihari pride & honour??
Let me put forward a few points here explaining what jungle raaj was like in Bihar as my friend told me.
1. 6pm was deadline for girls & all females to leave everything and get inside the house
2. Students were encouraged to study for IIT & other central exams as it was the only way to get out of Bihar
3. Central govt servants lobbied not to get Bihar posting
4. Doctors stopped coming to govt hospitals as they were not paid for over 5yrs. Private practice flourished
5. Doctors and engineers were target for kidnappers. So much so, a lot of them had their own armed guards
6. Many families had guns in the house to counter attack in case of a robbery
7. I was never allowed to go out on my own as I was a potential target for kidnappers
8. If your train is reaching post 8pm, at least 6-8 people came to pick up. Some had weapons
9. Weddings meant extra security required. No one, except couple of people, knew where cash and jewels were kept.
10. Post inter-caste wedding, 3 cars decorated as main car of bride and groom were arranged. All left together but in 3 directions. It was done to confuse a possible attack by Ranbir Sena or MCC or goondas.
11. You couldn't approach the police for help in a kidnapping case, cause they could either do nothing or they were friends with the kidnappers or the caste-card(Yadav)
& this was for an upper middle class, upper caste family Point of view. Imagine what life must have been for the poor & the weak. Imagine the fear they had to live in everyday especially if they were from rural India
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Seriously I personally still can not understand how RJD got 80 seats despite giving good reasons above. I thought the hatred/fear of Lalu who hasn't changed at all would work against him but it didn't.
The pollster in me tells that the most explainable reason of RJD's excellent performance is---> CASTE. The party which made life a living hell for the poor,the UCs & most of Bihar won because of caste.
Also let me dispel some myths here:-
1)BJP lost because of lack of emphasis on development & reforms:-
This is becoming very popular among too many centrists & those in he economic Right.
Excuse me? Okay Biharis wanted Vikas 
They wanted reforms & development & to show their anger they voted & made the JDU... No, the RJD the single largest party .. 
#okaythanksbye
Of course the fact that RJD destroyed Bihar is irrelevant, the fact that Lalu himself called Roads useless & upper-caste constructs is irrelevant, the fact the Lalu made a mockery of law & order is also irrelevant
The fact that Lalu's entire campaign rhetoric was abusive,divisive, threatening & focusing on the BCs,SCs & especially the Yadavs doesn't matter.
& Lalu is the enemy of development & progress... this guy didn't even bother to mutter one word about it or pretend to care about it. All his rhetoric was merely abuse , attacking Upper castes & "reservation khatre me hain."
So if the BJP wasn't focusin enough on development, how did the biggest enemy of Bihar's development -RJD become the single largest party?
BJP was the ONLY party talking about vikas. NiKu only talked about his good work when he was bashing Modi cause most of his good work consisted of cleaning up his present ally's mess which he didn't want to remind people about.
& reforms?? I agree reforms are important & should have been carried out a long time back for the efforts to come out in public. But even we urban educated guys have difficulty understanding reforms. How will rural illiterate people who just want to survive even know 1 word about them?
PLEASE spend less time depending upon the MSM for an understanding of politics
2)Bihar voted for peace & against BJP's communal rhetoric:-
Yes, because Lalu didn't threaten or attack Upper Castes or abuse anyone
or try to raise caste lines
Firstly, Bihar was divided on caste lines & casteism is dangerous & not a sign of peace.
Also let me point out 1 irony to you:-
Phases 1-3 where there was no mention of beef & pakistan, NDA got 26 seats.
Phases4-5, where the beef & pakistan campaign statements started NDA got 32 seats..
Also let me add the Phase-5 was a total MGB stronghold going by cadre no. & demographics, MGB should have got 50+ going by the results in the rest of Bihar & the reason I stated above, but it did not.
But yes Sakshi Maharaj should be asked to keep his opinions to himself, his followers & his constituency & not give punlic gyaan. He doesn't help in any manner anybody-vikas,hindutva,his party or our great nation.
Please point out any more reasons the BJP lost, if they re myths I will debunk them.
I will end this analysis by saying BJP needs to do serious introspection on Bihar, the Jaitley coteries surrounding Modi has to go or become sensible, BJP needs to have a cadre force independent of the RSS or have more co-ordination with it, BJP needs stronger local leaders especially from the BCs & SCs ALL OVER INDIA.
& BJP needs to stop driving away good talent like Arun Shourie & Prashant Kishore!
Also Caste did matter this election.Period & so did Prashant Kishore who helped the JDU a lot. But TBH the Lalu effect & the caste effect he created was stronger.
But BJP can rejoice with the knowledge that they got an increase in VS by 8% which is really good.(going by assembly results in 2010)
& finally Bhagwan Bachaye Bihar,
If you see TV visuals the day results came out you will see that
Lalu & Pappu were very arrogant & Nitish who should have been the happiest man alive after crushing the man because of whom he left the NDA & was humiliated & had the greatest reasons to be the most arrogant was just " satisfied" . you could say he was a little distressed, That tells us enough on what their expectations for the future are.
Lalu knows the alliance has won primarily because of his rhetoric & his cadre. The fact that RJD is th SLP+14 of his nominees in the Congress won proves it. He will now try to slowly take over this govt & take more than his pound of flesh.
He will even try to fill th pockets of his party which are almost empty by taking PWD,finance & revenue.
His daughter even wanted the CM post for herself just 2 days after the results came out after promising for more than 6 months that only NiKu would be the CM!!!
Nitish knows Lalu will do this & will now be planning/fearing for the future which is why he is only satisfied.
Lalu openly attacked JDU & it's electoral capabilities in a quite a few rallies & in front of NiKu himself!!! & Nitish Kumar didn't even bother to refute or counter-attack such charges whether it be on the same dais or later..
If before the election you can't even control him or stop him from attacking your party, how can u take him on when most of the MLAs in the MGB belong to him one way or the other??
& even if he can control Lalu & his MLAs,he cannot control the RJD goondas & local bahubalis who have finally attained power after 10 years of what they call "suffering"
Attacks & goondagardi has gone up in Bihar going by ETV-Bihar/UP. College girls are being threatened in patna by the frequent gang of eve-teasers that "Meri Rani, Hamari sarkar aa gayi hain. AB dekh lena kya hoga "
Police forces all over Bihar have been involved in clashes with RJD & JDU karyakarta. One businessman's son has been kidnapped & a ransom of 40 lakh has been demanded!!
& All this in less than 5 days!!!
It seems jungle raj will truly return if things go on like this
LET us all pray that Nitish ji succeeds & keeps goonda raj away. Trust me , he is a good man & the best Bihari Neta out there despite what many see as his opportunism. But he made a huge mistake by going with Lalu.
& Let us hope for the best for Bihar Too
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P.S:- Please post your feedback & comments below, I will also update this post whenever I see fit to do so
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