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There has been some blunders and It needs to look into it- arithmetic will not be in favor always as was the case in 2014 with UP and Bihar- to control the cow belt in long run- BJP will have to get Yadavs to vote for them- There's no passing around it- Its too strong a community to ignore-

I agree with this.

The Man from Dwaraka must win over the Yadavs First if he wants to will the Mahabharat in 2019 :P

Lord Krishna had used a series of Alliances to make his claim strong. Lalu has done it. Its time Modi does it too.
 
But congress was not a factor in Bihar, so let me ask you again and hopefully you won't pussyfoot this time by usual ad hominem which comes to you guys naturally - Why did people in Bihar not vote as per their caste in 2014?


Lol who told you Biharis didn't vote as per caste in 2014? :lol:

Typical NRI Modi baiter with no clue of desi politics or ground realities

@Tridibans this guy is no leftie , he's a 'peaceful bong' and that's what motivates his bias.
 
Lol who told you Biharis didn't vote as per caste in 2014? :lol:

Typical NRI Modi baiter with no clue of desi politics or ground realities

@Tridibans this guy is no leftie , he's a 'peaceful bong' and that's what motivates his bias.

His name is Abir. I remember at one time I believe he said he is a Bengali Muslim. But there are Bengali Hindus too with that name.

At some other time, his replies were far too left leaning. So yeah... even I am confused. BTW Most bongs are confusing including me :lol:

PS: I find Indian Bengali Muslims (mind you not the Bangaal type aka BD pole vaulters) to be the most rational among Indian Muslims.
 
His name is Abir. I remember at one time I believe he said he is a Bengali Muslim. But there are Bengali Hindus too with that name.

At some other time, his replies were far too left leaning. So yeah... even I am confused. BTW Most bongs are confusing including me :lol:

PS: I find Indian Bengali Muslims (mind you not the Bangaal type aka BD pole vaulters) to be the most rational among Indian Muslims.

He is a Bengali Muslim but claims he is "enlightened" and do not follow islam blindly, just like Jamahir. :P
 
But congress was not a factor in Bihar, so let me ask you again and hopefully you won't pussyfoot this time by usual ad hominem which comes to you guys naturally - Why did people in Bihar not vote as per their caste in 2014?

They did.

Bihar Result.jpg
 
Look Up the pie-chart of 2014 election from Bihar- people voted on cast lines even then- only leaderless castes in the EBC tilted towards NDA and UCs united since they were fedup with UPA-

Here's the priority table- cancel out the one which does not apply depending on caste and religion- and you'll get the picture-

Hindus-

1- Caste factor
2- Development
3- Religion
4- Region

Muslims-

1- Religion
2- Religion
3- Religion
4- Religion
-------------
-------------
1000000000- Development

This case applies for Bihar and most cow belt-

Make no mistake in every major communal riot in Bihar the main fight has always been Yadavs vs Muslims but in voting they are united as an army behind Lalu-



If I get the gist of you post correct yes NDA was unable to stop the expected- But with Modi and prominent leaders of the Yadav community like I mentioned before It was expected to do much better- let me remind you MGB only had there Yadav leaders- Lalu, Sharad and JPN while NDA had four+Pappu-

There has been some blunders and It needs to look into it- arithmetic will not be in favor always as was the case in 2014 with UP and Bihar- to control the cow belt in long run- BJP will have to get Yadavs to vote for them- There's no passing around it- Its too strong a community to ignore-


Again my point is this.

Arithmetic was not with BJP even in 2014. Imagine a UPA with all the opposition parties united..... BJP would have struggled to cross even 150. So nothing has changed much on the ground. Only thing is the opposition is getting united.

BJP needs a new strategy. It has to involve more allies. Has to get back the narrative from media presstitudes and paid intellectuals (ghar wapasi et-al). Time is running out but be rest assured.... we won't give it away on a platter.

BJP will fight it out. Hope for the best. Try to make inroads in Bengal/ Kerela/ Orissa etc.
 
BJP should try to court Mayawati. Sometimes Ego should take back burner when in competition.

Amit Shah should learn from Bihar mistakes. BJP needs genuine allies.

Mayawati in state and in 2019 as an ally will help BJP retain its LS tally plus additional state government with BJP.

If it takes such allies to have CONgress MUKT India...then do it.

What matters is result and not the route taken.

Hello bhai log kya haal hai? Swagat nahi karoge humara? :-)

good to see you back. Don't get banned again. We need your expertise.
 
Again my point is this.

Arithmetic was not with BJP even in 2014. Imagine a UPA with all the opposition parties united..... BJP would have struggled to cross even 150. So nothing has changed much on the ground. Only thing is the opposition is getting united.

BJP needs a new strategy. It has to involve more allies. Has to get back the narrative from media presstitudes and paid intellectuals (ghar wapasi et-al). Time is running out but be rest assured.... we won't give it away on a platter.

BJP will fight it out. Hope for the best. Try to make inroads in Bengal/ Kerela/ Orissa etc.

Arithmetic was in NDAs favor in 2014 hence they won 105 of 120 in UP and Bihar- lets not assume things here- JDU, INC, BSP, SP, RJD all have inter-rivalry among them find It use it to create the cracks in their alliance whenever possible- 2014 happened such that all stars favored BJP and their votes got divided right to the booth level ensuring victory-

Yes new strategy is needed like aligning traditional allies like BJD and get one the Dravidian biggie from TN in its fold if possible the lesser corrupt one and try to get support from TRS at least at the center if needed-

However nothing substitutes the hard work- go to booth levels explain your policy to village elders and people make a party office in every assembly seat- Do occasional Ramdhunis and Sundarkands etc- after all Its the biggest political party and has the biggest NGO supporting it- You should've seen the communists working in Bengal and Jharkhand even in Bihar- Its another thing that their leaders failed them so badly-
 
I doubt the dynasty is corrupt. Why is there no prosecution? :azn:

We all know how twisted and turnarounds are there in play of politics and corruptions.

One case of NH and still we have judiciary who is kind of siding with them. Media is not ready to cover or highlight it like a corruption case. Plus add on, BJP doesn't even have a few media houses who will support them in doing 24 hrs expose of CONg and its allies. Mukesh bought IBN and got rid of Sardesai's. What happened? Nothing, they ain't even supporting NDA cause to any extent.

BJP needs to pamper people now who can influence aam admi. 30% votes will not win elections in 2019.

Chetan Bhagat has written a blog on TOI today about this.
 
BJP should try to court Mayawati. Sometimes Ego should take back burner when in competition.

Amit Shah should learn from Bihar mistakes. BJP needs genuine allies.

Mayawati in state and in 2019 as an ally will help BJP retain its LS tally plus additional state government with BJP..

Let me make this clear this has been done in the past- without much strategic vision and just for immediate advantage- what happened-

1- Mayawati became CM at the cost of BJP-
2- Did rampant corruption-
2- BJP came down from 50+ to barely 10 seats in UP even congress got more at 21-
3- Mayawati booted out of power-

Now you want to see the cycle again ?
 
even though there is very little conclusive evidence for anything :enjoy: )
Whoa!
Other than giving me a few historum links to read you have not provided any evidence. 8-)
For example- you said Parishkrit is the oldest proven character from mahabharta. But where's the proof?

As far as my thread is concerned I have given proof to everything that I have written in the article.
I hope you do not doubt the proof provided by National institute of ocean technology, India.
If you want physical evidence then you might have to dive into the sea. Lolz

Kind Bharata who is mentioned in Rig-Veda, thus Mahabharata could not be older than Rig-Veda.
Gosh!!!
What's wrong with you??
If a character of mahabharta is mentioned in Rig-Veda then it definitely means mahabharta is older than rig-Vedas and not the other way around.
 
Darmashkian's Post-Poll analysis of Bihar 2015

Firstly I sincerely & with a bowed head apologize to one & all for posting wrong predictions last week regarding Bihar & misguiding all of you. I m very sorry for my wrong predictions & hope you can forgive me for getting it wrong.

This time I can say with full & total confidence that this analysis is way more accurate than my previous analysis & by a better margin. I can say this after checking Praveen Patil's articles one again after his predictions turned out to be tru & also checking/confirming with some twitter accounts of "some" good psephologists who were pessimistic & closer to the final outcome.
I also read some articles, checked the reactions of all sides after the results came out & read it b/w the lines & applied my logic & common sense.

This time I guarantee you that this analysis is more accurate

Just 1 week back, the results for the Bihar Assembly Election came out, results which one could say shocked the NDA & the pollsters & which came as a delight for the MGB & it's constituent parties especially the RJD & the Congress.


The Mahagathbandhan won 178 seats with a Vote-share of 41.9% & the NDA-58 seats a voteshare of 34.1.
A voteshare difference of 7.8%, this HUGE difference in voteshare b/w both side would lead to the decimation of the BJP & a grand victory for the MGB.


Few of the prominent pollsters could believe their eyes on seeing this result. Even the BJP whose leaders where expecting 130-140 seats were horrified & baffled. I can say that even many in the MGB must have been surprised & shocked on seeing such results!

One of my predictions was proved correct, the MGB is a strong but highly volatile combination. If it works it will be highly effective & trash the opposition. If it doesn't the MGB will be destroyed

The seats of the individual parties are below:-
1)MGB:-
RJD-80
JDU-71
Congress-27


2)NDA:-
BJP-53
LJP-2
RLSP-
HAM-1


-
CPI(ML)-3
Independents-4


BUT how did the MGB do so well?? I will explain below with points & after that an explanation . I will also dispel a few myths which are spreading through social media on why the BJP did so bad.

What worked for the MGB:-
1)Caste,Caste & Jati
This has been proved by the fact that Lalu Prasad Yadav'RJD got 80 seats & 14 of his nominated/chosen candidates won on a Congress ticket.

If you ask me
this is the Biggest Reason behind the victory of the MGB. The vote-transfer of Muslims, Koeris,Kurmis & Yadavs etc i.e. the traditional vote-banks of the parties in the MGB between each other was all but complete & took place without any hitches, which was highly surprising.

The Muslim consolidation towards the MGB was the largest of any community & close behind it was the Yadav community which desired the return of "Yadav Raj" (under lalu).

Also let me point out that a good portion of the election rhetoric from the MGB & it's leaders was purely on caste lines & especially from Lalu Yadav who made caste & abusing UCs the core of his campaign.

Lalu campaigning from village to village(for the Yadav dominated villages) played the caste card to the maximum, whether it be playing the emotional card, abusing upper castes, yadav pride etc
He made this a do or die election for the Yadav community & he succeeded in doing so.

Even the youth were more interested in voting based on caste lines & not on developmental/job lines.??.

Wherever he went he made the election a case of "Forwards vs Backwards" & played the banner of Yadav pride. He reminded the people of Upper caste atrocities of the past to make them emotionally charged to vote for a "pichdon ki parti".

Another interesting line RJD karyakartas used was:- "Nitishwas Dilli challa jayega kuch he samay mai, tab Lalu Bihar mai he rahega To is bar vote do Nitish ko"
I will not post some of the stuff which I suspect RJD karyakartas said/must have said due to lack of proof

Add to that the absolutely little leverage of the PM's backward origins from the BJP.

& all this worked brilliantly in one of the most casteist states of Indi
a.

Pappu Yadav himself said that one of the reasons MGB did well was because of a caste-wave that engulfed most of Bihar.


2)Reservation
"Aarakshan khatre me hain" was more or less one of the popular slogans of this alliance. Nitish & Lalu both used this to the maximum.

The controversy began after Mohan Bhagwat talked twice of the need of a review in the reservation system. This was taken by the MGB to the people as -"RSS wants to get rid of reservation, Modi is a puppet/chamcha of RSS. Just see how his party depends on them!!"

This was the biggest message of Nitish Kumar throughout the election that Modi wants to get rid of reservation & that thus, it is an Upper Caste Party.
This was one of the biggest reasons why the BJP was on the backfoot throughout the entire election! & when they finally responded it was too late. The message had already been taken to the people by the MGB leaders & karyakartas.

Lalu lead an excellent whisper campaign throughout Bihar on reservation especially in the rural areas. This was a truly excellent campaign by him
[Quoting Praveen Patil:- What is no longer a mystery is how RJD-JDU tapped the issue brilliantly. Just 48 hours before polling day, across all villages, many of the backward caste groups began meeting secretly to discuss “rumors” which indicated that if BJP came to power, they are not averse to “tinkering with the reservations because RSS has commanded the party to do so”. Upper Caste youths bragging about how BJP, once in power, would create a more level playing field in “Reservations” did not help matters at all.]
RJD karyakartas held many meetings among the OBCs about how reservation was in danger

Many OBC,EBC & SC Youth still depend on reservation to get a job in Bihar . Bihar is still a largely rural state,sadly. We all know how many Biharis leave Bihar to get a job.
[According to Praveen Patil- "Our estimates suggest that nearly half a million WhatsApp/Facebook messages on the “Reservations” issue were circulated in Bihar in the last ten days."]
Many of the aforementioned communities view reservation as a matter of pride & honour & that losing it would hurt that pride & honour & also their descendants.

Thus they voted to save "their rightful aarakshan"
This was largely avoidable, the BJP truly screwed up on this all because of one RSS maha-purush.[Also one must wonder what was Mohan Bhagwat thinking when he repeated this statement twice & when elections in Bihar were going on, was he sabotaging the BJP's chances??].

BJP leaders like Hukum Deo Yadav confirmed that this statement hurt them a lot after the results came out.

I can confirm that most SCs voted for the NDA, but most EBCs & OBCs for the MGB in large numbers.

3)Goodwill for Nitish Kumar:-
I have said this many times, there is a lot of goodwill for Nitish Kumar for the good work he did as CM. Some Biharis say he was possibly the best CM Bihar ever had since independence.
He is the most popular Bihari neta alive today! That is certain, one of my Bihar friends told me that there was no anti-incumbency against the JDU or most of it's MLAs as expected by everyone because of the good work done by Nitish Kumar.

Add to that the good work he did especially forKurmis,koeris, EBCs & Maha-Dalits who voted for his party JDU.

Even traditional NDA voters admit he did a good job as CM

Prashant Kishore leveraged his popularity heavily & tried to convince voters that JDU would control RJD(which any sensible mind should now is impossible). His PR & Election management skills were important towards the success of the MGB & more importantly the JDU. & all of it depended upon this one man

The above three are the primary reasons for the success of the MGB if you ask me.

4)One must note that MIM did very bad in Bihar in the 6 seats it contested. Muslim voters were clearly united for the MGB at all levels.
5)The third front hurt, but due to lack of cadre it couldn't hurt much as expected. Add to that the caste frenzy which lalu created across Bihar among Yadavs.
6)Lack Of Firm UC consolidation:-
The UC consolidation for the BJP was not as strong as the Muslims/Yadavs/Kurmis for the MGB. Maybe because of:-
(1)Infighting & what many saw as marginalization of UC leaders
(2)The local Bhumihar & Rajput chieftains in the JDU & RJD respectively got some votes for their parties
(3) The declaration of a non-UC will only be the CM candidate did help among some BCs & SCs, but further turned away some more UCs

Why the NDA Lost:-
1)Lack of good local leaders & failure in using them:-
The BJP campaign depended heavily upon Modi & Shah with very little scope left for the other state leaders

Prashant Kishore used this opportunity to make this Nitish the CM-centric face of the campaign. TO remind people that NiKu would be the CM if they win while Modi would always remain the PM of India.

Also when ever Lalu made a retort in Bhojpuri, some local leader should have responded back with a Bhojpur/magadhi/maithli/any local dialect accent. I feel Modi's shuddh(pure) Hindi may not have been comprehendable by all, especially in rural Bihar

& the BJP depended heavily on the top-down style of approach i.e. in this case giving addressing large public rallies. Leaders like Manjhi,kushwaha & many local BJP leaders are NOT fit for such endeavors. The local nukkad sabha style rallies are more effective for such people. 5forty3 gives us an example by tellings us below WHY Manjhi wasn't used effectively:-
CTqm0onUkAEr7XT.jpg:large


The same with RLSP & LJP & local BJP leaders..

I remember many people laughing at the lack of attendance in the MGB leader rallies & that they weren't half as big as modi....
Becuse they weren't supposed to be big in the first place!!

This nukkad style-local rally method which they adopted took them all over Bihar, they could address specific regions & castes & could appeal to them more without hurting other caste & areas(read what I said about Lalu above).

Their aim was to convince everybody in the small rally why to vote for them+a touch of aarakshan & caste.

ALSO

The BJP had a broad volatile social coalition ranged against it. Against that, what did it offer? Modi. And that was it’s first and most cardinal mistake- a repeat of the same mistake it made in Delhi. the Prime Minister cannot and will not win you every state election for the sake of god, especially in places where there are strong regional leaders.

BJP’s sweep of the Hindi heartland in the 2014 Lok Sabha election was powered by the assembling of a rainbow coalition of Hindus- the United Spectrum of Hindu Votes against a divided opposition.
This time the opposition united for the explicit version of defeating the BJP.

Like it or not it is the BJP Bihar Unit which will govern Bihar & Not Modi if they win & enough coverage wasn't given to the local leaders who would later rule Bihar.

Prashant Kishore & Lalu knew this & emphasized this point too. They repeated the point that Lalu & Niku would remain in Bihar & are of Bihar & Niku would be the CM.
I feel the Bihari vs Bahari tag must have played a role here

BJP should have propped up it's local leaders even more, but it wisely did not declare a CM candidate

2)Infighting & failure of Allies:-
There was tremendous infighting in the BJP. About 20 seats were lost due to infighting & so were certain caste & regional groups who didn't vote for the BJP on voting day. In some cases BJP rebels won as independents.
I heard JP Nadda was responsible for the ticket distribution, if he was. He should be punished.

& by the way why was Ananth Kumar of all people made the Bihar incharge by the BJP?? Couldn't they find anybody better. This guy screwed up in Karnataka too by getting rid of Yeddyurappa whose end results we saw.

Allies miserably failed, possibly due to lack of cadre; no. of seats given to them; lack of knowledge about the symbol among the public. & also for the reason I highlighted above-lack of effective use.

3)Dal & Vegetable Prices:-
When arhar & tur dal is about 200 rupees, HOW can you expect people to come out & vote for you , especially the poor?

How can you talk about FDI, ease of business & GDP-terms which are incomprehensible to the common man when his basic needs like what he needs to eat to live -is becoming more & more expensive? & they feel Nothing is being done to address that.

& the agriculture minister instead of solving this crisis was campaigning in Bihar. Add to that the lack of clarification from the PM on what other state's had done by cracking down on hoarders & asking what NiKu had done.

Many people(even BJP voters) must have remembered this as they went to the polling booths.

4)Anger against the PM & overuse of Brand Namo:-
Like it or not there was a good number who were angry/disillusioned with the PM. Some due to propoganda spread by the opposition, some due to the high expectations they had(for which some of the blame falls on Modi) & some on parameters where they felt the Modi govt. has not done well on.

That 15 lakh rupees has made it's midst among the voters & so did reservation. People are now unhappy seeing the PM going on foreign trips. They think he is going to have fun & enjoy when he is actually doing a good job.

Also many people with a "socialist" mentality especially in the rural areas believe all this investments by big companies & factories won't help them much & will only help the rich.

Also some people are asking this question--> If Cong. party is really so corrupt? Why is there no case against them? Where are the chargesheets & the FIRs till now? Why aren't they in jail?

After a few years Congress party will repeatedly emphasize this point to prove that they are not corrupt & if anyone goes to jail after that, they will call Modi vindictive. -_-

Many people feel he has done nothing for them or for India either due to lack of knowledge or lack of publicity by the PM or the feeling that PM has not done this or that. Also the PM did not visit Bihar EVEN ONCE after LS-2014 till Bihar -2015 Even though Bihar gave him 32 seats. This was also a source of anger for many

Please read this brilliant article below by Praveen Patil which states how overuse of Brand Modi is hurting him now
Has The BJP Diluted Brand NaMo? | Swarajya
For almost every local issue, you use Modi's name. Then for every local problem the blame will be thrown upon Modi #factoflife

"Brand NaMo needs to be reinvented and reinvented fast. This whole top-down approach is now suffering the usual wear and tear of the law of diminishing returns. BJP as a party of governance needs to evolve into a more horizontal structure where in local faces can also be held accountable – what use is a towering leader like Chaudhary Birender Singh if he cannot command the presence of merely 1600 people for a public meeting?"


I was screaming this for a long time. Harbar Modi,Modi kekhe kuch nahin hoga. That will only work in the Lok Sabha Elections. In the state & municipal part Modi & Shah have to encourage local leaders & not weaken them as they did in Gujarat which is why there is no popular local leader in Gujarat today.
But who will explain this to The Leader?

& the PM should focus more on bijli-sadak-pani-khana-ghar issues from now onwards & in the rural areas;for that seems to be the language understood by the people more appropriately & which could actually help them or get their votes

THESE are the Primary reasons for the defeat of the BJP if you ask me

CONCLUSION:-
Firstly this is a defeat of Modi first , then the BJP.
But as Yogendra Yadav said,the biggest loser of this election is Bihar & then the BJP. They have given Lalu Yadav 80 seats & the single largest party post ? Add to that 14 of his nominated candidates in the Congress also won.

I can understand giving JDU 95/105, & even Congress 35/41. But giving the Jungle Raaj party 80 seats out of 105?? The party which destroyed governance in Bihar & Bihar itself? THe party which gave a thrashing to Bihari pride & honour??

Let me put forward a few points here explaining what jungle raaj was like in Bihar as my friend told me.
1. 6pm was deadline for girls & all females to leave everything and get inside the house
2. Students were encouraged to study for IIT & other central exams as it was the only way to get out of Bihar
3. Central govt servants lobbied not to get Bihar posting
4. Doctors stopped coming to govt hospitals as they were not paid for over 5yrs. Private practice flourished
5. Doctors and engineers were target for kidnappers. So much so, a lot of them had their own armed guards
6. Many families had guns in the house to counter attack in case of a robbery
7. I was never allowed to go out on my own as I was a potential target for kidnappers
8. If your train is reaching post 8pm, at least 6-8 people came to pick up. Some had weapons
9. Weddings meant extra security required. No one, except couple of people, knew where cash and jewels were kept.
10. Post inter-caste wedding, 3 cars decorated as main car of bride and groom were arranged. All left together but in 3 directions. It was done to confuse a possible attack by Ranbir Sena or MCC or goondas.
11. You couldn't approach the police for help in a kidnapping case, cause they could either do nothing or they were friends with the kidnappers or the caste-card(Yadav)

& this was for an upper middle class, upper caste family Point of view. Imagine what life must have been for the poor & the weak. Imagine the fear they had to live in everyday especially if they were from rural India
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------


Seriously I personally still can not understand how RJD got 80 seats despite giving good reasons above. I thought the hatred/fear of Lalu who hasn't changed at all would work against him but it didn't.

The pollster in me tells that the most explainable reason of RJD's excellent performance is---> CASTE. The party which made life a living hell for the poor,the UCs & most of Bihar won because of caste.

Also let me dispel some myths here:-
1)BJP lost because of lack of emphasis on development & reforms:-
This is becoming very popular among too many centrists & those in he economic Right.

Excuse me? Okay Biharis wanted Vikas :) They wanted reforms & development :) & to show their anger they voted & made the JDU... No, the RJD the single largest party .. :) :lol: #okaythanksbye
Of course the fact that RJD destroyed Bihar is irrelevant, the fact that Lalu himself called Roads useless & upper-caste constructs is irrelevant, the fact the Lalu made a mockery of law & order is also irrelevant


The fact that Lalu's entire campaign rhetoric was abusive,divisive, threatening & focusing on the BCs,SCs & especially the Yadavs doesn't matter.

& Lalu is the enemy of development & progress... this guy didn't even bother to mutter one word about it or pretend to care about it. All his rhetoric was merely abuse , attacking Upper castes & "reservation khatre me hain."

So if the BJP wasn't focusin enough on development, how did the biggest enemy of Bihar's development -RJD become the single largest party?

BJP was the ONLY party talking about vikas. NiKu only talked about his good work when he was bashing Modi cause most of his good work consisted of cleaning up his present ally's mess which he didn't want to remind people about.

& reforms?? I agree reforms are important & should have been carried out a long time back for the efforts to come out in public. But even we urban educated guys have difficulty understanding reforms. How will rural illiterate people who just want to survive even know 1 word about them?

PLEASE spend less time depending upon the MSM for an understanding of politics

2)Bihar voted for peace & against BJP's communal rhetoric:-
Yes, because Lalu didn't threaten or attack Upper Castes or abuse anyone :) or try to raise caste lines

Firstly, Bihar was divided on caste lines & casteism is dangerous & not a sign of peace.
Also let me point out 1 irony to you:-
Phases 1-3 where there was no mention of beef & pakistan, NDA got 26 seats.
Phases4-5, where the beef & pakistan campaign statements started NDA got 32 seats..
Also let me add the Phase-5 was a total MGB stronghold going by cadre no. & demographics, MGB should have got 50+ going by the results in the rest of Bihar & the reason I stated above, but it did not.

But yes Sakshi Maharaj should be asked to keep his opinions to himself, his followers & his constituency & not give punlic gyaan. He doesn't help in any manner anybody-vikas,hindutva,his party or our great nation.

Please point out any more reasons the BJP lost, if they re myths I will debunk them.

I will end this analysis by saying BJP needs to do serious introspection on Bihar, the Jaitley coteries surrounding Modi has to go or become sensible, BJP needs to have a cadre force independent of the RSS or have more co-ordination with it, BJP needs stronger local leaders especially from the BCs & SCs ALL OVER INDIA.

& BJP needs to stop driving away good talent like Arun Shourie & Prashant Kishore!

Also Caste did matter this election.Period & so did Prashant Kishore who helped the JDU a lot. But TBH the Lalu effect & the caste effect he created was stronger.
But BJP can rejoice with the knowledge that they got an increase in VS by 8% which is really good.(going by assembly results in 2010)

& finally Bhagwan Bachaye Bihar,
If you see TV visuals the day results came out you will see that
Lalu & Pappu were very arrogant & Nitish who should have been the happiest man alive after crushing the man because of whom he left the NDA & was humiliated & had the greatest reasons to be the most arrogant was just " satisfied" . you could say he was a little distressed, That tells us enough on what their expectations for the future are.

Lalu knows the alliance has won primarily because of his rhetoric & his cadre. The fact that RJD is th SLP+14 of his nominees in the Congress won proves it. He will now try to slowly take over this govt & take more than his pound of flesh.

He will even try to fill th pockets of his party which are almost empty by taking PWD,finance & revenue.

His daughter even wanted the CM post for herself just 2 days after the results came out after promising for more than 6 months that only NiKu would be the CM!!!

Nitish knows Lalu will do this & will now be planning/fearing for the future which is why he is only satisfied.

Lalu openly attacked JDU & it's electoral capabilities in a quite a few rallies & in front of NiKu himself!!! & Nitish Kumar didn't even bother to refute or counter-attack such charges whether it be on the same dais or later..

If before the election you can't even control him or stop him from attacking your party, how can u take him on when most of the MLAs in the MGB belong to him one way or the other??


& even if he can control Lalu & his MLAs,he cannot control the RJD goondas & local bahubalis who have finally attained power after 10 years of what they call "suffering"

Attacks & goondagardi has gone up in Bihar going by ETV-Bihar/UP. College girls are being threatened in patna by the frequent gang of eve-teasers that "Meri Rani, Hamari sarkar aa gayi hain. AB dekh lena kya hoga "

Police forces all over Bihar have been involved in clashes with RJD & JDU karyakarta. One businessman's son has been kidnapped & a ransom of 40 lakh has been demanded!!

& All this in less than 5 days!!!

It seems jungle raj will truly return if things go on like this

LET us all pray that Nitish ji succeeds & keeps goonda raj away. Trust me , he is a good man & the best Bihari Neta out there despite what many see as his opportunism. But he made a huge mistake by going with Lalu.

& Let us hope for the best for Bihar Too

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P.S:- Please post your feedback & comments below, I will also update this post whenever I see fit to do so :)


@Rain Man @itachii @Nair saab @ranjeet @Tridibans @Abingdonboy @Echo_419[/USER] @Bitter Melon

Excellent post. Btw, are you from Bihar?

Developing credible local leadership and giving them charge to lead is very important for BJP, so is to develop links to the grassroots level. They have failed on both counts in Bengal also.

And post this analysis also in the 'Bihar election verdict' thread, here it will be lost among thousands of posts.
 
Let me make this clear this has been done in the past- without much strategic vision and just for immediate advantage- what happened-

1- Mayawati became CM at the cost of BJP-
2- Did rampant corruption-
2- BJP came down from 50+ to barely 10 seats in UP even congress got more at 21-
3- Mayawati booted out of power-

Now you want to see the cycle again ?

Yes agreed.

But we should understand that Mayawati lost in 2012.
Mayawati lost in 2014

Mayawati akin to Kejriwal has apologized to the people of UP before gram panachayat elections couple of weeks back and there you go, she came out with bumper lottery.

Everyone learns and hopefully she has also learned from that.

This alliance will give some credibility to NDA in terms of Dalit votes across India. Will help NDA maintain Dalit vote base against all sundry allies with CONg.

Goal is to retain NDA in 2019, sometimes some principles have to be compromised to stay in power.

We all know that.
 
I cannot post in that thread :/
Yes I know.
It's posted in senior's cafe to avoid trolls.
perhaps harappan era is a continuation of the same civ that existed at the time, or is itself a much older civ than previously thought.
The chances are that it is a continuation of a previous civilisation.
I doubt Harappa existed before 5000BCE, because in the pre-Harappan era the inhabitants were not using sophisticated tools and pottery.

I cannot post in that thread :/

Anyway, I'm not sure if you've seen this, but some of the objects there are very very similar to harrappan era stuff (Especially the part where the objects seemed like they were put through a lathe.), so perhaps harappan era is a continuation of the same civ that existed at the time, or is itself a much older civ than previously thought.


Goto 51:30, where he talks about drill bits used to create "carnellian jewellery" (among other things) and exported to places like mesopotamia, where they were highly prized.

The drill bits used made of a material called "ernestite".There is some confusion if this material is artificial or manmade, and a large amount of these drill bits are from Dholavira, where a lot of broken drill bits have been found indicating that it was part of industrial waste.

Stone Drills of Dholavira: A Multi-Faceted Analysis | Prabhakar Nandagopal - Academia.edu

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Going through the series of Michael Danino's lectures at IIT, is quite interesting.
I love Michel Danino's work.
Most of my threads about SSC are based on his work.
Thanks for the video, will watch it now.
 
We all know how twisted and turnarounds are there in play of politics and corruptions.

One case of NH and still we have judiciary who is kind of siding with them. Media is not ready to cover or highlight it like a corruption case. Plus add on, BJP doesn't even have a few media houses who will support them in doing 24 hrs expose of CONg and its allies. Mukesh bought IBN and got rid of Sardesai's. What happened? Nothing, they ain't even supporting NDA cause to any extent.

BJP needs to pamper people now who can influence aam admi. 30% votes will not win elections in 2019.

Chetan Bhagat has written a blog on TOI today about this.
Neither will appeasing Congress help. Stick and carrot. I can see the carrot. Where is the stick? The NH case is nothing in comparison. Probe everything. I am sure that even the toilet paper of the 'Gandhi' family is bought from hawala money.
 
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