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During 2014 elections, there was this video of Dalits who were clear about their priorities. They said they will vote for Modi for LS and Mayawati for Assembly. Even then her vote share was 20% or so of the whole. There has to be some workable solution to keep out the Yadavs. Her rule was any day better than Akhilesh Yadav's. Was she not the one who was willing to co-opt Brahmins in her fold?

Mayawati is a Serious Career Politician who like Modi has grown into power due to her own effort. She is also VERY ambitious and hungry and totally Amoral. It would be foolish to trust her.

If BJP can win enough power in UP they can probably form a govt. with BSP support, but if they tie up with her before elections there is a good chance She will Swallow up BJP.

She is also extremely casteist and any BJP alliance with her before election sends out a clear message to vote along Caste lines and that will Kill BJP in UP.

Its catch 22. Only one thing consolidates Hindu votes ....... and that is like Brahmastra. Too dangerous to be used regularly or loosely. The Ugly Truth.
 
Apart from all the negatives of Bihar elections, let us now look at the positive narratives...

1) Hope Modi and Shah has realised now that BJP cannot ride the 2014 Modi wave forever. they need to find and promote local leaders like Raman Singh or Vasundhara Raje.... This will take years but atleast, it won't be like the Delhi fiasco where the CM candidate joined the party 15 days before elections!!!

2) BJP has to look at the bigger picture... that is winning India in 2019. For this they might even have to play the second fiddle to small state level players if it means disallowing the Congress to form an unified opposition. They need to stitch up regional allies like AGP (in Assam), BJD (in orrissa) and make the existing allies feel more secure and more comfortable as partners (read Akalis or SS or TDP).

3) BJP must realise that vast majority of young voters or its hardcore supporters didn't elect Modi to pu$$yfoot Congress or play Gandhigiri. Go hard after the mother-son duo. Expose Vadra, Khurshid, Chiddu.... the Congress closet is so corrupt to the core that once it starts to stink... it will be a no go territory for any voters come 2019 elections. Congress had the Hindutva plank to play against BJP and they overplayed it. It was their last resort. Nothing else is left in their armory. When your enemy calls you Hitler and what not.... Gentleman's politics and Gandhigiri goes out the window.

4) Last but not the least, as much as we hate the presstitutes, BJP must realise in 21st century, its media management and marketing ploys that goes a long way in carrying forward your pov. If anyparty has serious corporate backing, it is the BJP. Like TV18, buy major media houses or influence them (go to any extent whatever deemed necessary). If Congress can play the game for 15 years, why not the BJP?

@ranjeet @Star Wars @magudi @SarthakGanguly @Marxist
I doubt the dynasty is corrupt. Why is there no prosecution? :azn:
 
How Modi set up a true role model for Muslims

"It is the non-Muslims who are the field of this Tabligh (propagation and conversion) of Islam and form the raw material for this splendid activity. We are opposed to Islam's right to missionary activity to a particular area," thus spoke Deobandi leader Maulana Hussain Ahmed Madani while opposing the formation of Pakistan in his speech before the 1945 Jamiat-e-Ulema-Hind conference in Delhi as quoted by author ZH Faruqi in his book The Deoband School and the Demand for Pakistan and later by reformist leader Hamid Dalwai in his book Muslim Politics in Secular India. On another occasion, Madani was even more unabashed in airing his views when he said: "If Dara Shikoh would have triumphed over Aurangzeb, Muslims would have stayed in India, but not Islam. Since Aurangzeb triumphed, both Muslims and Islam were here to stay."

As indicated by his above statements, Madani, a Deobandi preacher and Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Hind leader, was a pan-Islamist. But since a significant section of the Deoband movement opposed the partition and took part in the Congress-led freedom movement as part of its long-term religious strategy to safeguard the interests of puritanical Islam, Madani figures as a nationalist in history books written during the Congress period. This was one of the main tragedies that India’s post-partition history saw. It prevented true Muslim role models for the community from emerging and encouraged the projection of pan-Islamists as role models, thus hindering the integration of the Muslim community with the Indian nation.

Had it not been so, true Muslim heroes instead of pan-Islamists would have figured in our history and been role models – like Ibrahim Khan Gardi, hero of the Third Battle of Panipat in 1761 who as the artillery in-charge of the Marathas refused to join the Muslim coalition of Afghan invader Ahmed Shah Abdali and had to pay with his life as a result, or Brig Usman who died fighting against the Pakistanis in 1948 in Kashmir and is the only Brigadier to be decorated with Param Vir Chakra, or Havaldar Hamid of the 1965 Indo-Pakistan war fame and scores of others including Rana Khan, another Muslim hero who emerged out of the Panipat battle and became the life-long friend of the great Maratha general Mahadji Scindia. Even during the action against terrorists at Gandhinagar's Akshardham temple in 2002, one of the jawans of the Gujarat State Reserve Police (SRP) who died after killing the two Pakistani terrorists was a Muslim.

It is in the light of this that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's appointment of former Intelligence Bureau (IB) chief Syed Asif Ibrahim as his special envoy on counter-terrorism should be seen. Ibrahim’s track record makes him a role model at a time when some leaders of the Wahabi stream want Indian Muslims to get sucked into the vortex of pan-Islamism: they want to do so by maintaining a separatist streak and raising special demands in the name of minorityism.

Interestingly, Ibrahim was made IB chief by the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in 2012 as part of its political strategy with an eye on Muslim votes. He, in fact, superseded four IB officials to get that post and the then Union home minister Sushil Kumar Shinde had even boasted that the UPA government was the first to ever appoint a Muslim IB chief in India's history. The UPA game plan was to use the IB to trap Modi and his aide Amit Shah in the Ishrat Jahan case to prevent the then Gujarat chief minister from emerging as the prime ministerial candidate for the 2014 polls. For this reason, a number of pliant officers had been inducted in the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), which was investigating the alleged fake encounter cases in Gujarat, including the one relating to Ishrat Jahan. But Asif Ibrahim became the stumbling block for the UPA designs at great personal risk.

The CBI was reportedly directed in the middle of 2013 by the home ministry to prosecute an IB officer, Rajendra Kumar, who as a Gujarat IB unit chief had given the Ishrat Jahan tip off to the Gujarat Police in 2004. He was to be booked on the charge that he was hand-in-glove with Gujarat government and had given a false tip off. But Ibrahim put his foot down and strongly protested before the home ministry saying that it would demoralise the IB and severely affect its intelligence network. He reportedly argued that the sanctity of India’s premier intelligence agency had to be maintained at all costs by not dragging it into a political battle.


The Hindu-Muslim wrangling is one of the major hurdles today in India’s true progress. The fundamentalism of pan-Islamists, who oppose a uniform civil code and removal of Article 370 of the Constitution, giving special status to Jammu and Kashmir, is one of the causes that prevents the integration of Muslims in the Indian society and sows seeds of hatred for Muslims in Hindu minds. Ibrahim’s liberal and patriotic credentials make him an apt model for creating a moderate class of Muslims willing to become equal partners with Hindus in India’s progress.

Ibrahim, who is from the Madhya Pradesh cadre, has a commendable track record. He was private secretary to the late Madhavrao Scindia when he became Union minister of state for Railways in 1984. This was after Scindia saw his calibre and integrity during his stint in Gwalior as a police officer. Later, he joined the IB and performed very well in the area of counter-terrorism in various capacities. Modi’s riposte to pan-Islamists by appointing Ibrahim to the prime minister's office (PMO) is a significant development in his year-long tenure and for the emergence of a truly secular India.

@fsayed @SarthakGanguly

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@Tridibans what is your opinion about Prashant Kishore's role ?


I will give you a short and simple answer.

He is overrated.

No matter what, Modi was destined to win in 2014. And in Bihar, BJP was always behind if you go by the core vote share of each parties. It was a no contest to begin with (30% odd of BJP vs 50% odd of MGB). But it was to some extent due to Shahs' strategy that NDA could retain 35% of the VS.

You see, most of us right-wingers were mistaking the ground reality that Bihar voters will vote above caste lines or religious lines. It turned out to be a simple, Bihari casteist arithmatic at play. Nothing more nothing less.

Kind of a status quo. Upper castes/ EBC's and Dalits voted for NDA (totalling about 30% of Bihar population).... while Kurmis, Yadavs, Muslims, and others voted for MGB (About 50%).
 
I will give you a short and simple answer.

He is overrated.

No matter what, Modi was destined to win in 2014. And in Bihar, BJP was always behind if you go by the core vote share of each parties. It was a no contest to begin with (30% odd of BJP vs 50% odd of MGB). But it was to some extent due to Shahs' strategy that NDA could retain 35% of the VS.

You see, most of us right-wingers were mistaking the ground reality that Bihar voters will vote above caste lines or religious lines. It turned out to be a simple, Bihari casteist arithmatic at play. Nothing more nothing less.

Kind of a status quo. Upper castes/ EBC's and Dalits voted for NDA (totalling about 30% of Bihar population).... while Kurmis, Yadavs, Muslims, and others voted for MGB (About 50%).
@magudi
He gave a good boost to the JDU campaign.

But at the end of the day it was primararily caste that won it for the MGB+lalu's cadre. Lalu getting 80 seats +14 nominated chamchas in the Congress proves it.

TBH they could have won without him..

& I disagree on the EBCs, many EBCs voted for the MGB because of the reservation comment. But SCs & UCs voted for the NDA in large numbers but not as large as Yadavs & Muslims for the MGB.

By the way what do you think of the analysis which I posted just a few pages back??
 
I will give you a short and simple answer.

He is overrated.

No matter what, Modi was destined to win in 2014. And in Bihar, BJP was always behind if you go by the core vote share of each parties. It was a no contest to begin with (30% odd of BJP vs 50% odd of MGB). But it was to some extent due to Shahs' strategy that NDA could retain 35% of the VS.

You see, most of us right-wingers were mistaking the ground reality that Bihar voters will vote above caste lines or religious lines. It turned out to be a simple, Bihari casteist arithmatic at play. Nothing more nothing less.

Kind of a status quo. Upper castes/ EBC's and Dalits voted for NDA (totalling about 30% of Bihar population).... while Kurmis, Yadavs, Muslims, and others voted for MGB (About 50%).

Hi-

EBC and Dalit votes were divided- Upper cast voted congress in places like Begusarai and Bhagalpur- NDA lost 4-5% vote compared to 2014 LokSabha polls- Independents hurt them very bad in at least 20-30 winnable seats- MGB too lost 4% or so due to 3rd front-

You have to keep in mind that Nitish has been voted for the good work he did- That was the reason 18% stood by him even after joining hands with Lalu- Else Kurmis are only 4% or so in Bihar- It is another thing that this MGB might turn out to be another experiment gone ashtray- as has been the case with Bihar since 80s-

@magudi

& I disagree on the EBCs, many EBCs voted for the MGB because of the reservation comment. But SCs & UCs voted for the NDA in large numbers but not as large as Yadavs & Muslims for the MGB.

EBCs and OBCs(including Yadavs and Kurmis) have been unhappy with the Center as easy Govt- Jobs like Group-D in Railways have been stopped- Such is the craze for getting a Govt- Job in Bihar boys even want to clean shit on railway tracks-
 
I doubt the dynasty is corrupt. Why is there no prosecution? :azn:
That is the question people gonna ask in next election.

You see, most of us right-wingers were mistaking the ground reality that Bihar voters will vote above caste lines or religious lines. It turned out to be a simple, Bihari casteist arithmatic at play. Nothing more nothing less.
Why did people vote for BJP in 2014 then?
 
Hi-

EBC and Dalit votes were divided- Upper cast voted congress in places like Begusarai and Bhagalpur- NDA lost 4-5% vote compared to 2014 LokSabha polls- Independents hurt them very bad in at least 20-30 winnable seats- MGB too lost 4% or so due to 3rd front-

You have to keep in mind that Nitish has been voted for the good work he did- That was the reason 18% stood by him even after joining hands with Lalu- Else Kurmis are only 4% or so in Bihar- It is another thing that this MGB might turn out to be another experiment gone ashtray- as has been the case with Bihar since 80s-



EBCs and OBCs(including Yadavs and Kurmis) have been unhappy with the Center as easy Govt- Jobs like Group-D in Railways have been stopped- Such is the craze for getting a Govt- Job in Bihar boys even want to clean shit on railway tracks-

NDA l;ost 5 % vote share "COMPARED TO 2014"!!!

This is an important point everybody is missing out. Traditionally, BJP's hardcore VS + other small parties equals approx. 30% in Bihar.

In 2014, it was National Election and Modi was the PM candidate. Here, it was Nitish vs BJP (Modi was the campaigner but even a illeterate villager knew he was not to be Bihar CM).

EBC votes didnt get divided to that extent. It was mostly towards BJP+. Otherwise there is no chance in hell BJP+ would have got 35% VS.

To win Bihar, Yadav + Kurmis +Kushwahas' +OBC's were to be taken away from MGB where BJP failed miserably. All the Lalu votes got transferred to Nitish and Congress.

That is the question people gonna ask in next election.


Why did people vote for BJP in 2014 then?

For once, nobody voted because of Modi's caste or Beef ban.

Apart from the hardcore Hindutvadis, most of the youth voted against Corrupt and shameless dynasty of Congress. Add to that Modi had the Gujarat Model as an live example. It was a no brainier really for majority of voters (not counting self declared intellectuals like you or leftists) whom to choose . (40% voted NDA whose PM candidate was Modi).
 
NGO's mushroomed especially after '02...& each one of them with agenda of their own. It's about time prominent voices like the one above starts speaking out more on these sort of organisations & avoid bringing bad name to genuine ones. Then again...anything good coming out from people like Satyarthi will be confined to the middle pages of broadsheets. That's as far as it goes....
 
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