Indian Ocean Peaceful Geo-Political Pivot Or Contentious Source of Hedging

[Dalai Lama]

I sincerely feel, that navies of Pakistan and China should join hands to have complete dominance over the Indian ocean. If Indian navy tries to be funny or adventurous, they can be taught a lesson of their life. However Indian leadership in correct frame of mind is not expected to go for such an adventure.

I have a better idea, how about PN navy goes for complete dominance over the Indian ocean? And if poor old IN tries anything funny, PN can teach IN the lesson of their lives! Oh wait, nevermind...

The author makes some very interesting statements in this article, e.g. "Indian Navy which by 2015 is slated to become the 3rd largest two aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines navy in the world, would mainly remain a coercive force in being, providing anti-piracy support."
Would the strong Indian Navy merely become a coercive force in being, in view of the presence of powerful world navies. How would it operate in the Indian Ocean without confronting the interests of many others operating in the same strategic zone. Would it only resort to use of coercive force against shipping of countries like Pakistan in international waters.
There was a recent news that Indian Air Force will increase its force level in Andaman Nicobar Islands - and if so why do they need to enhance its strength, except for projecting its force in Southeast Asia. Would the Southeast Asian nations allow this to happen - or is it merely to launch anti-piracy operations in this area. Use of SU-30s against only sea pirates, it would certainly be surprising.
Interesting developments indeed.

Yeah, because Aircraft carriers and subs are of paramount importance when it comes to tackling pirates.

 

[Galaxy]

An interesting geopolitical environment is emerging for India. Its strong army can not exert its influence because of nuclear powers on either side and its strong navy can not exert itself due to presence of powerful world navies in indian ocean. It is left to do "chota mota" kaam for the Americans in this region. India's geopolitical influence has shrunk to almost nothing. It is likely to grow as an economic "doodh wala" to big Americans and destined to live the ignominy of not even a regional power.

India is very strong in Indian Ocean. U.S. navy has some presence but very small presence mainly due to commercial purpose and we have good terms with U.S. China or any other country don't have significant presence in Indian Ocean. May be in 10 years, China will have some presence. But We are improving quite a lot to be strongest one at any given of time. We will have 11 Naval Bases including 3 Major Bases, 3 Air Craft Carrier, 2 Big Islands, Many Nucl. Sub-Marines, 10-15 Destroyers, Multiple Frigates, 5 Naval Air Force bases with Sukhoi 30 MKI and MIG29UPG, 5th Generation will also come, Cruise Missiles like Brahmos, Nirbhav, Ballistic Missile like Agni-3,5, ABMS (Aad,Pad - AAD/PDV - AD1,2) and so on. Also, Our Coastal Force is also strong beside Navy. I am not considering IAF or IA. We are spending some 50 Billion $ for modernization of our Navy in next decade. At any given point of time, Our Navy will be 5-10 Times better than any Navy with various strategic location too including Andaman to Madagascar.

Our 97% Business is done through Sea. That's why it's very important for us to have very strong Navy. Strong Navy is not always for Defence but for many other reason. Strong Navy is needed when Business with other countries are big and strong.

 

[Jinx1]

The only other powerful navy in the Indian ocean is the USN and they're not bothering anyone else except the Chinese and maybe you guys.

Thats exactly what I am saying - they are not going to bother anybody unless bothered. It is for this reason that Indian navy will remain a second fiddle to the powerful US Navy. The US Navy may have some needle pricking with the Chinese Navy in the South China Sea in response to US hedging, but thats all. The big loser is India in this case - they can not become a big badmash in presence of bigger badmashes in the area.

 

[Dalai Lama]

Thats exactly what I am saying - they are not going to bother anybody unless bothered. It is for this reason that Indian navy will remain a second fiddle to the powerful US Navy. The US Navy may have some needle pricking with the Chinese Navy in the South China Sea in response to US hedging, but thats all. The big loser is India in this case - they can not become a big badmash in presence of bigger badmasges in the area.

The main aim of the IN is to safeguard our shipping lanes. The USN poses no threat to us as of now and are unlikely to in the near future. We are okay with US presence, we are okay with things the way they are right now. The only countries which may prefer things to be otherwise are Pakistan and China.

 

[EastWest]

China can never have a foot hold in Indian ocean without a naval base..

Pakistanis are as usual getting worked up.

Where will China build a base?? Srilanka? as much as Pakistanis want, Srilanka will not allow China to build a naval base on its land, and plz dont bring Hambantota.It is a seaport with Chinese investment and that is the max Srilanka will allow China to do.Because as much as India and Srilanka relation hits rock bottom, Srilankan gov knows indians have and will always have more cards to play.Bringing any hostile navy to india on Srilankan soil will only turn Srilanka into battlefield and india will throw everything in its covert arsenal at Srilanka.This is not a threat but a strategic requirement.
Only Pakistan will allow its bases for China.But now China is not interested in having bases in Pakistan..So Pakistanis dont get hyper as the author is just trying to feel good about himself as his wife had just heckled him for not doing chores.

 

[Galaxy]

Thats exactly what I am saying - they are not going to bother anybody unless bothered. It is for this reason that Indian navy will remain a second fiddle to the powerful US Navy. The US Navy may have some needle pricking with the Chinese Navy in the South China Sea in response to US hedging, but thats all. The big loser is India in this case - they can not become a big badmash in presence of bigger badmashes in the area.

You are wrong. US Navy has very small presence in Indian Ocean. India Navy is 5-10 Times stronger than any Navy in Indian Ocean Today or after 10 years. First you need to check the facts. India-U.S. having good relations same like India-Russia or India-France or India-U.K. or India-Israel. We are indeed, Buying C-130H, C-17, etc. from U.S. to improve our Navy Further. Also, We might Buy F-35 (5th Generation Air Craft) for Indian Navy Air Force. U.S. is more than willing to sell and we are not asking it also.

U.S. Navy is for commercial use and not for War. Even if War, they will move towards South China Sea. No Threat in Indian Ocean and India has no such problem with U.S.. They are some 1,000-2,000 KM away from our land. Economy is always 10 time more important than War. We have many naval bases outside India but it's only for commercial purpose.

By the way, Why you always think of War ?? Navy is not only for defence like Army or Air Force. Strong Navy is required due to Import/Export through Sea.

 

[Jinx1]

India is very strong in Indian Ocean. U.S. navy has some presence but very small presence mainly due to commercial purpose and we have good terms with U.S. China or any other country don't have significant presence in Indian Ocean. May be in 10 years, China will have some presence. But We are improving quite a lot to be strongest one at any given of time. We will have 11 Naval Bases including 3 Major Bases, 3 Air Craft Carrier, 2 Big Islands, Many Nucl. Sub-Marines, 10-15 Destroyers, Multiple Frigates, 5 Naval Air Force bases with Sukhoi 30 MKI and MIG29UPG, 5th Generation will also come, Cruise Missiles like Brahmos, Nirbhav, Ballistic Missile like Agni-3,5, ABMS (Aad,Pad - AAD/PDV - AD1,2) and so on. Also, Our Coastal Force is also strong beside Navy. I am not considering IAF or IA. We are spending some 50 Billion $ for modernization of our Navy in next decade. At any given point of time, Our Navy will be 5-10 Times better than any Navy with various strategic location too including Andaman to Madagascar.

Our 97% Business is done through Sea. That's why it's very important for us to have very strong Navy. Strong Navy is not always for Defence but for many other reason. Strong Navy is needed when Business with other countries are big and strong.

Sir Ji,
Ye sab kuch kis ke khilaf istimal karenge. To safeguard your Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOCs) - you dont need so much to protect your SLOCs. US 7th fleet in South China Sea - US 5th fleet in the Gulf (basically India Ocean) with Diego Garcia almost 2000 kms south of India - they have got the Indian Ocean covered well for India to take any Panga.
Currently India does not possess even a portion of what you write - this may come up in future. "Kon Jeeta Hai Teri Zulf Ke Sar Honay Tak". And by then even Pakistan may have some nuclear submarines. The Big Carriers are on their way out - these are a big ticket "Bhughana" (Punjabi word ) jiski hawa jaldi nikal jaegi due to coming of age of Anti Carrier Ballistic Missiles. Pakistan will have these in future and so would the Chinese off-course.
At the end of the day, as some one said earlier - Indian Navy will be all dressed up and nowhere to go.

 

[Galaxy]

China has no such presence in Indian Ocean as of now. Let's discuss once they will have such bases. 2 Years or 20 Years. In any case, we are improving our Navy a lot. So, Doesn't matter. We will be always strong.

 

[Galaxy]

Sir Ji,
Ye sab kuch kis ke khilaf istimal karenge. To safeguard your Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOCs) - you dont need so much to protect your SLOCs. US 7th fleet in South China Sea - US 5th fleet in the Gulf (basically India Ocean) with Diego Garcia almost 2000 kms south of India - they have got the Indian Ocean covered well for India to take any Panga.
Currently India does not possess even a portion of what you write - this may come up in future. "Kon Jeeta Hai Teri Zulf Ke Sar Honay Tak". And by then even Pakistan may have some nuclear submarines. The Big Carriers are on their way out - these are a big ticket "Bhughana" (Punjabi word ) jiski hawa jaldi nikal jaegi due to coming of age of Anti Carrier Ballistic Missiles. Pakistan will have these in future and so would the Chinese off-course.
At the end of the day, as some one said earlier - Indian Navy will be all dressed up and nowhere to go.

It will better if you post in English as not everyone understand your language.

I already said everything. Still, you failed to comprehend or may be you don't want to. Now, I will only say one thing which will be more than Enough - India-U.S. are Friends and not Enemies. I don't want to talk hypothetical situation.

 

[Jinx1]

China can never have a foot hold in Indian ocean without a naval base..

Pakistanis are as usual getting worked up.

Where will China build a base?? Srilanka? as much as Pakistanis want, Srilanka will not allow China to build a naval base on its land, and plz dont bring Hambantota.It is a seaport with Chinese investment and that is the max Srilanka will allow China to do.Because as much as India and Srilanka relation hits rock bottom, Srilankan gov knows indians have and will always have more cards to play.Bringing any hostile navy to india on Srilankan soil will only turn Srilanka into battlefield and india will throw everything in its covert arsenal at Srilanka.This is not a threat but a strategic requirement.
Only Pakistan will allow its bases for China.But now China is not interested in having bases in Pakistan..So Pakistanis dont get hyper as the author is just trying to feel good about himself as his wife had just heckled him for not doing chores.

Please read this ....... Sri Lanka: Indian Delegates go Home Empty Handed
Sri Lanka: Indian delegates go home empty handed
The article also indicates that ..... ^^^^US is not likely to obstruct Chinese entry into the strategic Indian Ocean zones and would even discourage India to counter such moves, provided the motive of such moves is primarily economic and not aimed at intrusive military presence. By not positioning its naval assets at ports it built in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar, China has attempted to reinforce its non-military intent and dispel international concerns. Also, taking a leaf out of US strategy, the Chinese are responding in a quid pro quo by shaping and hedging of their own while continuing to improve and refine its response capabilities.^^^^

 

[Jinx1]

China has no such presence in Indian Ocean as of now. Let's discuss once they will have such bases. 2 Years or 20 Years. In any case, we are improving our Navy a lot. So, Doesn't matter. We will be always strong.

Wishful thinking Sir.

 

[secure]

India must exert its sovereignty over whole Indian ocean coz its named after india like china exerts its sovereignty over whole south china sea coz its named after china.likewise Bangladesh must exert its sovereignty over Bay of bengal and saudi arab must exert its sovereignty over arabian sea.

 

[Galaxy]

Please read this ....... Sri Lanka: Indian Delegates go Home Empty Handed
Sri Lanka: Indian delegates go home empty handed
The article also indicates that ..... ^^^^US is not likely to obstruct Chinese entry into the strategic Indian Ocean zones and would even discourage India to counter such moves, provided the motive of such moves is primarily economic and not aimed at intrusive military presence. By not positioning its naval assets at ports it built in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar, China has attempted to reinforce its non-military intent and dispel international concerns. Also, taking a leaf out of US strategy, the Chinese are responding in a quid pro quo by shaping and hedging of their own while continuing to improve and refine its response capabilities.^^^^

It would be better if you start comparing when China will have 1/5th of Indian Navy strength in Indian Ocean. As of Now, Nothing is there. So, No point in discussing ifs and buts. There will be many such cases across globe. Stick with facts and not imagination.

 

[Jinx1]

It would be better if you start comparing when China will have 1/5th of Indian Navy strength in Indian Ocean. As of Now, Nothing is there. So, No point in discussing ifs and buts. There will be many such cases across globe. Stick with facts and not imagination.

Sir, the strength of the navies is not under discussion here. It essentially is the ability to use this force and take geopolitical or strategic advantage of having this force. The plain fact is that India does not have that advantage.

 

[Galaxy]

Sir, the strength of the navies is not under discussion here. It essentially is the ability to use this force and take geopolitical or strategic advantage of having this force. The plain fact is that India does not have that advantage.

No Advantage in Indian Ocean ? Yes, No Advantage as there is no competition till date. We don't compeitite with our friends. Hope some competition will emerge after 5-10 years so that our Strong Navy will have some work. Thanks for your suggestion.