I don't know about 200, but 170 still is achievable, since we are at 137 at present.
From what I know,
Frigates will rise to 22 from 15
Destroyers will rise to 10 from 9
Corvettes will decline to 16 from 24
Minesweepers will rise to 12 from 7
Amphibious assault ships will rise to 12 from 10
Submarine's will rise to 18 from 14
Aircraft carriers will rise to 3 from 2
FACs will remain at 20 while OPVs will decline to 9 from 11
Fleet auxiliaries will remain around 40.
So thats around 160
Taking into account future retirements and all current ships on order.
Navy will have to order 40 more ships than what it already on order,
in order to achieve the target