In 7 years, the China story’s over

[tranquilium]

1. China's growth speed will eventually slow down, but it will be more due to the fact that Chinese economic structure shifting towards high tech and such, and the "slowed down" rate is still gonna be something most country can only dream about.

2. China is never about cheap labor. The southeast Asia and India always had a cheaper labor than China. China is all about cheap HIGH QUALITY labor. You won't get a worker with high education this cheap anywhere else in the world.

3. Since when did China has a low fertility rate? Low fertility implies a physical disability. China has population stability, this means the population is growing according to what the society can handle. Also, one child policy is a policy because it is good for China right now. It can easily be lifted if it is no longer good. I also guess you do not know that if both parents are the only child, they can have two kids.

 

[acid rain]

1. China's growth speed will eventually slow down, but it will be more due to the fact that Chinese economic structure shifting towards high tech and such, and the "slowed down" rate is still gonna be something most country can only dream about.

2. China is never about cheap labor. The southeast Asia and India always had a cheaper labor than China. China is all about cheap HIGH QUALITY labor. You won't get a worker with high education this cheap anywhere else in the world.

3. Since when did China has a low fertility rate? Low fertility implies a physical disability. China has population stability, this means the population is growing according to what the society can handle. Also, one child policy is a policy because it is good for China right now. It can easily be lifted if it is no longer good. I also guess you do not know that if both parents are the only child, they can have two kids.

You must be joking when you say china's cheap labor is costlier than others, china's only point is cheapest labor in the world where the majority population works 16 hour guelling shifts without a leave and a 5 minutes recess. You are insulting your biggest work force including all the children who sweat it out in the millions of sweat shops all over china. STOP insulting your millions of workforce for a meager 50 cents.

 

[jhungary]

Read my response below to another post. It answers your question as well. Simply put, if the US has kept the world's economy with its 330 million people....these Chinese have 1.5 billion and growing to feed, provide clothes, roads, homes, shows, cell phones, the internet, trains, etc, etc. So...the economy will take cycles like it does everywhere else. BUT, it won't slow down for more than a few year but then it'll pick back up for the next cycle 1.5 times of the pace. Until all housing, roads, food stores, hospitals, jobs, cars, etc, etc are provided for 90% of the 1.5 billion people. Then it'll saturate and by that time....it'll be 2040-2050. A few of the economy related forecasts even put the Chinese economy around 18-21 Trillion large by 2040. So that's only do-able if constant growth is there

You are saying only one part of a story actually.

For China to satruate their economy, first they need to find a way to pull closer the inequality gap between the rich and poor. The problem is, with the current model where people from everywhere just rush in to selected city, they will create a economic exclusion zone. That is like a mini country. Where they see Chinese from other county as an outsider.

The problem is. Even with the Chinese GDP run high, Individual, not government, is holding the sack. What you are saying is to feed, develope and building the country with no output and basically for free. Will the rich and famous in China would do that for free is really a question of judgment here.

If Chinese are on course as if today, 2 things will happen. Either they pull down the gap and what you say can happen. Otherwise The poor flood in the riches town and the economic system break down. As you cannot sell the same stuff with the same price in city like beijian as the city in Yunnan. And you cannot have 2 different prices for 2 different city in the same country.

Problem is, not all the Land in China are suitable to develope too. There are places lack of natural resource and places lack of Transportation and lack of basic infrastructure and also places just to harsh to develope. It maybe ok if you are looking at 10-20% of Residence in US (WHich is about 20 millions. But if the same precentage apply to China than you are looking at 300 millions. That will strain a lot of resource if Chinese governement wanted to get everything for them for free. If they do pull thru it, then it will be a straight sail from then on like you said, but if they can't, those people will drew down the other and the situation will spread to the whole China and the country will be collasped.

What will be the case is unknow, they may pull thru it, they may not, but one thing can be sure of, the time Chinese hit the first satruation, which is when their big city hit satrution, that is the time when China drop to hold. Will China bounce back is not only depending on China next move, but also what would the world move. Theoritically, China can be doom if the world shift their view on China if there are a bigger, cheaper market to occupy. Then China will be doomed.

 

[FaujHistorian]

1. China's growth speed will eventually slow down, but it will be more due to the fact that Chinese economic structure shifting towards high tech and such, and the "slowed down" rate is still gonna be something most country can only dream about.

2. China is never about cheap labor. The southeast Asia and India always had a cheaper labor than China. China is all about cheap HIGH QUALITY labor. You won't get a worker with high education this cheap anywhere else in the world.

3. Since when did China has a low fertility rate? Low fertility implies a physical disability. China has population stability, this means the population is growing according to what the society can handle. Also, one child policy is a policy because it is good for China right now. It can easily be lifted if it is no longer good. I also guess you do not know that if both parents are the only child, they can have two kids.

Agreed!

OP is a nincompoop thinking that China will lose its edge in 7 years. Heck we won't see that kind of drop even in 70 years (and perhaps 700 years).

China has many strengths going for it. Above all it is a nation of hard working and humble and socially tolerant people. (Unlike us Pakistanis who are not hard working and we are not socially tolerant people).

This is a unique combination that will continue pushing China forward for a very long time to come.


The best case scenario for China will be that it will become a nice combination of Germany and Singapore of today: Vibrant, dynamic, innovative, and very very orderly and clean.

The worst case scenario is that it will be a much bigger version of Japan of today: Rich and economically stagnant.


So what are the real weaknesses of China.


China in the past suffered because it quit being a nice global player. I can recall two instances but there could be more.

1. Right after the time of Zheng He. When Chinese emperor shut down the sea voyages and destroyed its naval fleet.

2. Opium wars: When Chinese emperor miscalculated and started a war with much stronger Britain



Looking forward, If Chinese government makes a miscalculation on challenging militarily or starting a military camping against other countries in the region, it will destroy Chinese economy.

I always say that we should learn from the military history because we only ignore it at our own peril.



However I think Chinese business class will be more dominant and thus keep the global trade going, AND will keep its military in check. So the Chinese military will be strong enough to defend its territory but careful enough to not start a war.


If that happens, Chinese people will (InshaAllah I have to add it. Afterall I am a Pakistani) have smooth economy for centuries to come: Prospereous, hard working, humble, and socially tolerant.




My hats are off to China.


peace

p.s. I wish Pakistani people become more like Chinese by dumptin our bad habits in the Sindh river.

 

[FaujHistorian]

You must be joking when you say china's cheap labor is costlier than others, china's only point is cheapest labor in the world where the majority population works 16 hour guelling shifts without a leave and a 5 minutes recess. You are insulting your biggest work force including all the children who sweat it out in the millions of sweat shops all over china. STOP insulting your millions of workforce for a meager 50 cents.

Funny to see an Indian giving Commie-Socialist lecture to an ex-Communist China.

--- Ultay baans Braily ko (Carrying coals to Newcastle)


I think you are disrespecting modern China because its workers are more efficient than a typical union-infested factory worker in India (and in Pakistan).

A man (and a working woman)'s job is to work until sweat pours out.

That's the sign of true hardwork eking out a living out on the farm or in a factory.


Only socialists and Communists look down at such hard working man and his sweat of labor.

Shame on you.

 

[PITA]

Just as i said, i don't see a collaspe China in the next 7 years, but i also would not see a "Fast growing" China in 7 years. In 7 years China will be half satruated and either have to change their form or shift their dynamic from on place to another, developemental of new city and new trading hub is a needed.

Mind you, even with Chinese'market overtake US market, Chinese will not be a Superpower with 1 :1 spending power with the American anytime soon. As China have a population about 5 times (1.4 billions vs 330 milions) the US population, it's only realistic to expect even China have a bigger trade figure than US, China only have 1/5 power of everything (Purchasing power, crediting and Military expenditure) unless China turn into a North Korean Style Regime and totally ignore their citizens, China will need to take care of 5 time what american taking care of. Yes, there maybe people richer tha nthe American, but as the ratio concluded, there will be 5 times more people living in poverty in China than the United States. And Chinese need to deal with this issue before totally surpass the US with everything. And that i tell you, will not happen anytime soon.

The major difference I see in terms of how wealth is laid out in both countries is that, yes, Americans do possess greater overall wealth than their Chinese counterparts but people in China do tend to have a great deal of cash readily available. That gives some Chinese (obviously not all) people a lot of flexibility on where the investments will happen rather than resorting to collateral based loans.

 

[rcrmj]

You must be joking when you say china's cheap labor is costlier than others, china's only point is cheapest labor in the world where the majority population works 16 hour guelling shifts without a leave and a 5 minutes recess. You are insulting your biggest work force including all the children who sweat it out in the millions of sweat shops all over china. STOP insulting your millions of workforce for a meager 50 cents.

An tipical ignorant and brainwashed Indian who has never been out the slums..

Indians average labour cost is much cheaper than the cheapest ones in China..fact (my Indian leather suppliers factory, visiting quite often)

Indian has the world biggest child labour force, and China is one of those countries give hardest punishment to those people who dare to do so..fact

China is the world biggest high tech products end producer, and the worlds biggest high tech exporter, outpacing No.2 U.S with a margin of 33%... Whereas India is like 7% of China's...fact (check World Bank annual statistics of you are capable of reading)

Next time try to troll with facts, not usual Indian empty farts.

 

[LiberalAtheist]

China's economy is always a topic of interest off topic we're clawing our way back to stability slowly but surely. As long as we and the western world have a demand for cheaply manufactured goods China will be strong unless that demand falls and if there is alternate and cheaper source.

 

[HongWu]

You must be joking when you say china's cheap labor is costlier than others, china's only point is cheapest labor in the world where the majority population works 16 hour guelling shifts without a leave and a 5 minutes recess. You are insulting your biggest work force including all the children who sweat it out in the millions of sweat shops all over china. STOP insulting your millions of workforce for a meager 50 cents.

Keep deluding yourself. Indian wages are only 1/6 Chinese wages and you still can't compete because you don't even have a place to defecate. Funny to see Scatlanders talk about children when you sexually abuse most children and 5000 children die from starvation every year, far more than subsaharan Africa.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/180240-over-50-children-face-sexual-abuse-india.html

Almost 5,000 Indian Children Die Daily - India Real Time - WSJ

 

[gpit]

In 7 years, the China's story is over

...

1) there are too many instances that for too many people to claim China story over for too many decades. Nothing is new for this one.

2) even the story is "over", better than those who never had any story.


BTW, I don't know how this guy figured out the fudget number 7. The "demographic dividend"? Demographic dividend-less Japan is still having much high GDP per capita than China, and this fool definitely fails to see those countries with huge demographic dividend for centuries (such as many African countries) are far worse off. Uneducated demographic dividend only causes negative GDP, via such crime as murder, killing, gang raping....

 

[Viet]

Today everyone seems to be obsessed by China, especially India. Whenever you read newspaper or watch TV, China is in the news. Terrible. Everyone is obsessed?

No, as for Vietnam, China is so as far as Ecuador. The majority of is not interested in China.

 

[Okemos]

Today everyone seems to be obsessed by China, especially India. Whenever you read newspaper or watch TV, China is in the news. Terrible. Everyone is obsessed?

No, as for Vietnam, China is so as far as Ecuador. The majority of is not interested in China.

But there are so many comments made by Vietnamese members on China news in this forum. You don't see Thais, Cambodians, you see a couple of Philipines and Indonesians, but you do see swarms of Vietnamese comments. It's rather funny when you consider how tiny Vietnam is compared to its SE neighbors.

There is nothing wrong with India showing interest in China and actively seeking more interaction with China. You sound like this is something funny. False pride gets you nowhere. Good thing is you live in Germany and Vietnamese people living in Vietnam may have different attitude.

 

[Viet]

But there are so many comments made by Vietnamese members on China news in this forum. You don't see Thais, Cambodians, you see a couple of Philipines and Indonesians, but you do see swarms of Vietnamese comments. It's rather funny when you consider how tiny Vietnam is compared to its SE neighbors.

I wish there are more active users from other nations in Asia, such as Japan, Korea, Mongolia, Burma, etc... No clue why we don´t see then here on PDF. If we stop making comments in China´s threads, who else will raise voice for East Asia?

There is nothing wrong with India showing interest in China and actively seeking more interaction with China. You sound like this is something funny. False pride gets you nowhere. Good thing is you live in Germany and Vietnamese people living in Vietnam may have different attitude.

Trust me, there are not much differences between overseas and local Vietnamese. Most of us are more interested in Japan, Singapore, Australia or America. You cannot sell China news in Vietnam.

That stands in contrast to other regions in the world.

 

[beijingwalker]

Today everyone seems to be obsessed by China, especially India. Whenever you read newspaper or watch TV, China is in the news. Terrible. Everyone is obsessed?

No, as for Vietnam, China is so as far as Ecuador. The majority of is not interested in China.

that's good to hear,I hope you dont have mass mob take the street and burn our flags,we never burn your flags and no one talks about Vietnam in China.

 

[cirr]

In 7 years China's GDP will be 2.5 times the present level and the defence budget will probably be 3-4 times larger。