IMF:Bangladesh GDP 249 Billion USD, Per capita 1,525 USD in 2017.

[Species]

@Species

What are you even talking about, these are estimates and projections, and they change.

According to the April 2016 WEO,

View attachment 391794

2016 Bangladesh Per capita GDP was $1400, and 2016 India per capita GDP was $1747, a difference of $347.

2017 Bangladesh per capita GDP was supposed to be $1511, and India's per capita was supposed to be $1874 a difference of $363.

However, according to the latest WEO, from April 2017,

View attachment 391795

2016 Bangladesh Per capita GDP was $1411, and 2016 India per capita GDP was $1723, a difference of $322.

2017 Bangladesh per capita GDP was supposed to be $1524, and India's per capita was supposed to be, $1850 a difference of $326.

These are estimates once again, they change, depending on the growth rate and exchange rates. You can not take estimates from one year and compare it to series of estimates from another year, and claim oh look the gap is widening, that's just retarded.

As you can see, even though little, given the almost identical growth rates, the gap between the two countries has still increased, from 2016 to 2017. However with the effects of demonetization behind us and with gst and other economic reforms in place, India's growth is expected to zoom ahead.

Unless Bangladesh achieves a growth rate significantly higher than that of India(not going to happen), or the Bangladeshi Takka strengthens significantly (again not going to happen given its effect on exports), I don't see Bangladesh closing the gap anytime soon if not never. In fact as I said earlier, India is poised to pull further ahead of Bangladesh, and the latest estimates from the IMF support my claims.

View attachment 391800




Yup,

Because of the ongoing IMF program with Pakistan, the series from which nominal exchange rate assumptions are calculated are not made public—the nominal exchange rate is a market-sensitive issue in Pakistan.

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/data/changes.htm

What I said is, IMF estimates for Bangladesh have always been on the lower side when the actual figures turn out to be higher than those estimates. On the other hand, estimates for India have been on the higher side. Take a look at the per capita income estimates for both the countries and you'd realize.

 

[INDIAISM]

Last year gap was 346 dollar,now it is 325.Although IMF projection showed widening of gap.You can cross check their projection vs actual per capita for last couple of years for Bangladesh.It showed widening of gap with India,but actually it decreased.
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/gdp-226-billion-usd-per-capita-1401.427551/

20 dollar gap can be attributed to the currency exchange rate....Most of the last year Taka was stable against Dollar on the other hand INR had lost 3% to 4% of its value to dollar...But this year things are different INR has already appriciated 5% to 6% to dollar on the other side Taka depreciated by around 4%....So you can understand that their are alot of ifs and Buts involve in this 20 Dollar Gap....

 

[Roybot]

What I said is, IMF estimates for Bangladesh have always been on the lower side when the actual figures turn out to be higher than those estimates. On the other hand, estimates for India have been on the higher side. Take a look at the per capita income estimates for both the countries and you'd realize.

So the increase in the gap between India and Bangladesh is less than what the IMF estimates, but the gap is widening nonetheless! its just not widening as fast as the IMF estimates.

As I said, the only way Bangladesh can cover the gap is by growing at a much higher rate than India, or if the Bangladeshi Takka strengthens significantly. The chances of either of that happening is a big fat 0.

 

[Species]

So the increase in the gap between India and Bangladesh is less than what the IMF estimates, but that still doesn't change the fact that the gap is widening, its just not widening as fast as the IMF estimates.

As I said, the only way Bangladesh can cover the gap, is by growing at a much higher rate than India, or if the Bangladeshi Takka strengthens significantly. The chances of any of that happening is a big fat 0.

Once, the megainfrastructural projects are completed, GDP growth for Bangladesh will shot up. The Padma Bridge alone will add up to 1.5 percentage points to the GDP growth.

On the other hand, we are using the 2004-05 base year, if we change it to 2011-12 prices like India, the figures will turn out to be significantly higher.

 

[Roybot]

Once, the megainfrastructural projects are completed, GDP growth for Bangladesh will shot up. The Padma Bridge alone will add up to 1.5 percentage points to the GDP growth.

On the other hand, we are using the 2004-05 base year, if we change it to 2011-12 prices like India, the figures will turn out to be significantly higher.

Coulda woulda shoulda, we ll talk about it when it actually happens. Right now according to the latest estimates the gap between Indian and Bangladesh is expected to widen, lets leave it at that.

And no one has stopped you from changing the base years, we have heard about it in the past well, base year change, underground economy, , all this mean nothing when comparing data.

 

[Species]

Coulda woulda shoulda, we ll talk about it when it actually happens. Right now according to the latest estimates the gap between Indian and Bangladesh is expected to widen, lets leave it at that.

And no one has stopped you from changing the base years, we have heard about it in the past well, base year change, underground economy, , all this mean nothing when comparing data.

You're right, changing base years mean nothing, it's just a magic that India's growth rates shot up after 2013, co-incidentally the same year when India changed it's base year from 2004-05 to 2011-12.

And the projections of higher GDP growth over the completion of infrastructural projects are facts.

http://www.thedailystar.net/round-tables/padma-bridge-new-lifeline-development-203326

Why do you think the govt. is so hell-bent in building that bridge?

 

[Roybot]

You're right, changing base years mean nothing, it's just a magic that India's growth rates shot up after 2013, co-incidentally the same year when India changed it's base year from 2004-05 to 2011-12.

And the projections of higher GDP growth over the completion of infrastructural projects are facts.

http://www.thedailystar.net/round-tables/padma-bridge-new-lifeline-development-203326

Why do you think the govt. is so hell-bent in building that bridge?

India changes its base year every 5 years because new industries and business worth billions of dollars are coming up and they need to be accounted for. What new type of industry has come up in Bangladesh? LAst time you guys changed the base year in 2013, this was the effect. How different do you think the result will be when the Bangladesh moves to the new 2015-2016 base year?

In India the implementation of GST alone is supposed to add 1.5-2% to the growth rate! The infrastructure push and spending is many times bigger in India than in Bangladesh, and its effects will be much more pronounced. If you think that India is not doing anything to increase the pace of its growth, then you have another think coming!

At best Bangladesh will be able to keep up with India, I don't see it outpacing India. And as long as it doesn't outpace India, it won't be able to overtake India. Having said that happy to see both India and Bangladesh growing at a decent pace.

 

[Species]

India changes its base year every 5 years because new industries and business worth billions of dollars are coming up and they need to be accounted for. What new type of industry has come up in Bangladesh?

Shipbuilding, ICT, Electronics, many more. And it's the prices that raises the figures. Prices of goods in 2011-12 was way higher than that in 2004-05.

 

[Species]

In India the implementation of GST alone is supposed to add 1.5-2% to the growth rate! The infrastructure push and spending is many times bigger in India than in Bangladesh, and its effects will be much more pronounced. If you think that India is not doing anything to increase the pace of its growth, then you have another think coming!

At best Bangladesh will be able to keep up with India, I don't see it outpacing India, as long as it doesn't outpace India, it won't be able to overtake India.

GST is a monetary/fiscal reform, not an infrastructural project. And you need to provide a source for the 1.5-2% addition to the growth rate. Such reforms are stated as high risks as they could go either way.

 

[GodToons]

Without going into details of numbers, I got chance to connect with 2 Bangaldeshi's in India who were here for medical treatment.
they were super optimistic about their economy and growth. Kudos to them since they are focusing on growth instead of stupid land and comparison.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

2016 Bangladesh Per capita GDP was $1400, and 2016 India per capita GDP was $1747, a difference of $347.

2017 Bangladesh per capita GDP was supposed to be $1511, and India's per capita was supposed to be $1874 a difference of $363.

However, according to the latest WEO, from April 2017,

2016 Bangladesh Per capita GDP was $1411, and 2016 India per capita GDP was $1723, a difference of $322.

2017 Bangladesh per capita GDP was supposed to be $1524, and India's per capita was supposed to be, $1850 a difference of $326.

These are estimates once again, they change, depending on the growth rate and exchange rates. You can not take estimates from one year and compare it to series of estimates from another year, and claim oh look the gap is widening, that's just retarded.

Latest estimate will always nullify previous projection.IMF projected BD and India's per capita for 2017 as 1511 and 1874 dollar back in 2016,but it turned around to be 1525 and 1850 dollar respectively in their most recent update.We can take their 2017 estimate in 2017 moe confidently than 2016 projection for 2017 as future is something which even IMF can't control.So instead of growing gap,it actually narrowed.It will happen again in 2018,as their estimate is more conservative for BD than for India.

 

[Roybot]

Latest estimate will always nullify previous projection.IMF projected BD and India's per capita for 2017 as 1511 and 1874 dollar back in 2016,but it turned around to be 1525 and 1850 dollar respectively in their most recent update.We can take their 2017 estimate in 2017 than 2016 projection for 2017 as future is something which even IMF can't control.So instead of growing gap,it actually narrowed.It will happen again in 2018,as their estimate is more conservative for BD than for India.

Good grief, but it also nullifies the data for the previous years not just for 2017! Agreed?

According to the April, 2017 WEO estimate,

The gap between India and Bangladesh in 2016 was $322, and the gap is $326 dollars in 2017, and it will be $347 in 2018. Now you tell me if the gap is narrowing or widening! Since these are estimates, the figures might not be exactly the same when the WEO is published in the next year, but I don't see any evidence of the gap narrowing.

What you are doing is, taking one figure from the WEO 2016, and another figure from WEO 2017, and saying look, the gap is narrowing!

 

[Homo Sapiens]

Good grief, but it also nullifies the data for the previous years not just for 2017, agreed?

According to the April, 2017 WEO estimate,

The gap between India and Bangladesh in 2016 was $322, and its $326 dollars in 2017, and it will be $347 in 2018, now you tell me if the gap is narrowing or widening! Since these are estimates, the figures might not be exactly the same when the next WEO is published in the next year, but I don't see any evidence of the gap narrowing.

What you are doing is, taking one figure from the WEO 2016, and another figure from WEO 2017, and saying look, the gap is narrowing!

I didn't took their backward or forward projection for comparing 2016 and 2017 per capita figure.346 and 325 dollar was taken from their respective current year estimation.So we can confidently say that,gap is narrowing.

 

[damiendehorn]

Lets keep calm and keep growing, hater are just gonna hate......

 

[Roybot]

I didn't took their backward or forward projection for comparing 2016 and 2017 per capita figure.346 and 325 dollar was taken from their respective current year estimation.So we can confidently say that,gap is narrowing.

Thought so, you were just cherry picking to score a worthless point. Still the fact remains and is for everyone to see that, the gap between India and Bangladesh is widening, and will continue to widen according to the latest IMF estimates.