How likely is the Iranian invasion of Iraq?

[Kompromat]

* ISIS has established a state
* Kurds are opting for seperation
* Noori Al Maliki isn't giving up
* Shia Militias are running major cities outside Baghdad and are busy fighting each other.

* Iranian RGs are already in Iraq though not in strong numbers.

If the political deadlock continues, Iran in my opinion will most surely invade Iraq in the name of protecting the Shrines in Karbala and other Holy cities.

Their real objective though would be to annex Shia majority areas in order to create a buffer state between ISIS's advance and Iran.

It also makes sense because being geographically close to Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Shia strongholds will boost Iranian capability to wage its hitherto unsuccessful proxy war against Sunni Arab states.

Please participate in the poll to say if such an invasion is likely or not.

Thanks

 

[KingMamba]

They can very much invade, but they will not. The shrines cannot be harmed the shias have all gathered around them, ISIS cannot defeat them all. The Askari mosque in Samarra is the most vulnerable mortars hit the area a few days ago yet you did not see Iran react so I doubt they will in the future.

 

[anHuman]

maybe Iran just send troops to secure some Iraqi town border near Iran , for example Qaneqein ( Khaneghein !? )

we don't want to drag to this war directly ...

 

[Serpentine]

* Shia Militias are running major cities outside Baghdad and are busy fighting each other.

No they aren't. There was just a small incident in Karbala where a lunatic with few followers declared war against Iraqi army and Maliki. The situation is settled now.

* Iranian RGs are already in Iraq though not in strong numbers.

It's only in form of advisers and perhaps very few drone operators. No foot soldiers yet.

Their real objective though would be to annex Shia majority areas in order to create a buffer state between ISIS's advance and Iran.

Iran's best interest is Iraqs territorial integrity, so invading Iraq and 'annexing' Shia areas is out of question. Iran will never ever invade Iraq, but it will indirectly help Iraqis to deal with ISIL.

It also makes sense because being geographically close to Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Shia strongholds will boost Iranian capability to wage its hitherto unsuccessful proxy war against Sunni Arab states.

What hitherto proxy war? We don't need additional land to be at war with anybody and there is no proxy war between Iran and the mentioned countries in their own soil.

ISIL's main advances has stopped, they can't go on any further to capture any more important areas. Now this is a war to take back the captured areas and it will happen eventually, because absolute majority of Iraqis despise ISIL.

 

[SOHEIL]

* ISIS has established a state
* Kurds are opting for seperation
* Noori Al Maliki isn't giving up
* Shia Militias are running major cities outside Baghdad and are busy fighting each other.

* Iranian RGs are already in Iraq though not in strong numbers.

If the political deadlock continues, Iran in my opinion will most surely invade Iraq in the name of protecting the Shrines in Karbala and other Holy cities.

Their real objective though would be to annex Shia majority areas in order to create a buffer state between ISIS's advance and Iran.

It also makes sense because being geographically close to Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Shia strongholds will boost Iranian capability to wage its hitherto unsuccessful proxy war against Sunni Arab states.

Please participate in the poll to say if such an invasion is likely or not.

Thanks

There is a point here ... We are not as dumb as Americans !

 

[IbnTaymiyyah]

Isn't this what Saudi would want. To get Iran involved.

 

[Sedqal]

IMHO Kurds are the most important part of the equation in Iraq. They have a history of resistance, a strong political ideology and established network. Their support will be the major trump card for either ISIS or Maliki govt. Seems like Kurds will sit silently till ISIS can bleed Maliki govt dry and then go for seperation. I can sympathize with Kurd cause, they have been through enough turmoil already.

 

[FaujHistorian]

Ayatullahs may become a tool in the hands of USA.

 

[SOHEIL]

Ayatullahs may become a tool in the hands of USA.

Another brilliant comment from a loser ...

 

[rmi5]

There is no need for an invasion. Iraqi army needs to be organized. after that, the situation would be different and they can wipe out ISIS by themselves. this process may take some time, but it is what would happen. Iraq has a big oil wealth and also good relations with most powerful countries to buy arms. So, what matters was blocking the first shock of ISIS invasion, which is pretty much done. Now, in the second phase, patience and getting organized is important.
@1000
What do you think?

 

[1000]

There is no need for an invasion. Iraqi army needs to be organized. after that, the situation would be different and they can wipe out ISIS by themselves. this process may take some time, but it is what would happen. Iraq has a big oil wealth and also good relations with most powerful countries to buy arms. So, what matters was blocking the first shock of ISIS invasion, which is pretty much done. Now, in the second phase, patience and getting organized is important.
@1000
What do you think?

I only see the US intervening as they have already based 5 warships in the Gulf, hundreds of SF personnel set up joint ops centers in the capital, fly drones/F18's above and Apaches are now at Baghdad airport.

Currently their generals/pentagon are advising direct action & air support while some of their politicians are against it, they're still fighting it out. I think they will eventually provide airpower & maybe even US combat forces as Dempsey said to help fight ISIS and reorganize everything.

People in Iraq from all religious groups ( except minority radicals ) have less a problem with the US intervening rather then any neighbor, Iranian troops here would cause more trouble then good, it serves good IS propaganda and all the religious scholars will start using the 'Iran is ruling you' phrase spreading their virus on the religious people that fall for it.

 

[Serpentine]

Ayatullahs may become a tool in the hands of USA.

How is that? So... fighting ISIL means serving U.S interests, right?

People in Iraq from all religious groups ( except minority radicals ) have less a problem with the US intervening rather then any neighbor, Iranian troops here would cause more trouble then good, it serves good IS propaganda and all the religious scholars will start using the 'Iran is ruling you' phrase spreading their virus on the religious people that fall for it.

Exactly. direct intervention by Iran won't help anything, we better help Iraq 'unofficially', if you know what I mean.

There is only one situation in which Iran will get involved directly and that's ISIL attacking us directly, which is unlikely. They won't even reach the border.

 

[Sedqal]

I think Iran will be dragged into this quagmire sooner or later. Timings depend on how much say elected government has on foreign policy issues because religious undertones of this mess can not be ignored.

 

[rmi5]

I only see the US intervening as they have already based 5 warships in the Gulf, hundreds of SF personnel set up joint ops centers in the capital, fly drones/F18's above and Apaches are now at Baghdad airport.

Currently their generals/pentagon area advising direct action & air support while some of their politicians are against it, they're still fighting it out. I think they will eventually provide airpower & maybe even US combat forces as Dempsey said to help fight ISIS and reorganize everything.

People in Iraq from all religious groups ( except minority radicals ) have less a problem with the US intervening rather then any neighbor, Iranian troops here would cause more trouble then good, it serves good IS propaganda and all the religious scholars will start using the 'Iran is ruling you' phrase spreading their virus on the religious people that fall for it.

Air support is really the only thing that Iraqi army needs. although you can provide it by buying some Russian attackers and hiring mercenary pilots, as well.

 

[1000]

Air support is really the only thing that Iraqi army needs. although you can provide it by buying some Russian attackers and hiring mercenary pilots, as well.

Air support is not the only thing.

That's why they sent USSF advisers to Iraq to get a better sight on the situation of the army. The training of the regular soldier is short and ineffective, they don't join because they dream of being a soldier but rather for the payroll or they are religiously motivated. This is why they don't aim when they fire, they spray, fall in enemy hands often, desert to avoid clashes. You could say many of the police and army are nothing but civillians in military clothes, they don't have the skills or physical power.
After all everything depends on the commanders, their decisions cause this.

They better put up a hard and longer training program, maybe copy that of the USMC or something to root out those payroll ones and turn the others into capable soldiers with confidence, by then we won't see them captured, killed and deserting often.