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Has Bangladesh Really Left India and Pakistan Behind in Per Capita Income?

Sorry, it is unfortunate that I have little time to read long posts and grasp their true meaning. However, I must say we better do not measure and compare our loin clothes in the open.

All the South Asian countries remain poor and impoverished. Why compare our small loin clothes with each other then? We should compare ourselves with other developing/ developed countries in our east.

All of us remain at the lowest rung of a ladder. All means BD, India, Nepal, Bhutan, SL, the Maldives, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. It seems modernity will not come over our faith matters and we are destined to remain as poor as we are now.

No modernization of thoughts and no modernization of the economy.
 
While not wishing to upset our Pakistani hosts, BD economy is on another level compared to Pakistan now.

After many decades of being behind in per capita PPP, BD is now equal with Pakistan in this metric and it will now take a lead next year.

Unfortunately the problem with Pakistan is that successive governments have not built their society towards the one unified goal of lifting their people out of poverty.

This is one common goal that all BD government’s have had since the 1980s.

Unless something radical happens in Pakistan very soon, then in 15-20 years we may see a 3rd world Pakistan on one side of India and a “middle-income” BD on the other side.

There seems to me to be a fundamental difference in mindset in BD of creating a modern prosperous secular state that is missing in Pakistan.
 
Pakistanis have more children than Bangladeshis this is an important reason behind the lower per capita GDP of Pakistan.
If x person earns 1 lakh in month and y earns 80 thousands. X has 1 wife and 4 children and y has 1 wife and 2 children. Per capita income of x persons family would be less than 17 thousands and y familys per capita income would be 20 thousands

There are many other factors (including HDI Factors) that are at play. You have to understand that rate of literacy for females in Bangladesh is higher, educated females have less fertility (number of babies per woman) and tend to raise healthier babies when they do have them. This trend of educating females in Bangladesh started more than three decades ago, and we are only reaping the benefits in the last two. Let me put in a MINT article (Indian media) published in 2013. In those days we were poorer than India (GDP per capita PPP) more than we are today, but our many HDI indicators were still higher than India's. In addition, @PoondolotoPandalum has explained that there are other factors (bottom-up development is the term I believe) which eluded India as a country. This article also talks about that in an indirect way but GINI coefficient (Inequality of wealth) and Gender Parity in Bangladesh is much higher than either India or Pakistan because of cultural reasons. Funnily enough, our nominal GDP per capita has exceeded India's now, and IMF predicts that this will remain so for the near future.


Lessons for India from Bangladesh
A file photo of clean-up work at the Rana Plaza building collapse in Dhaka. Photo: AFP (AFP)
A file photo of clean-up work at the Rana Plaza building collapse in Dhaka. Photo: AFP
(AFP)4 min read . Updated: 19 May 2013, 11:34 PM IST Manas Chakravarty

Despite being desperately poor, Bangladesh has done much better than India on many social indicators

Bangladesh has recently been in the news for all the wrong reasons. The collapse of the by now infamous Rana Plaza has focused the spotlight on the dangerous working conditions in the garment sweatshops there. The country is, of course, the sordid underbelly of globalization. But the garment industry has also lifted millions in the country, especially women, out of poverty. In the inimitable words of Joan Robinson, “The misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all."

Bangladesh is a much poorer country than India. Its per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity was $2,039 in 2012, compared with $3,830 for India, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Despite being desperately poor, the country has attracted international attention among development economists for the extraordinary improvement in its social indicators. Numerous studies have shown it has done much better than India when it comes to alleviating poverty, reducing child mortality, and on other such indicators of inclusive growth. This improvement has happened in spite of Bangladesh’s rate of GDP growth being well below India’s.

According to the latest United Nations (UN) Human Development Report, Bangladesh comfortably beats India on most such social indicators. It has lower infant and child mortality, higher life expectancy, and does better on gender equality. It has forged ahead of India on these social indicators despite the government spending little on health or education. Bangladesh’s public spending on health, as a proportion of GDP, is the same as India’s, while public spending on education is much lower. Unlike India, welfare programmes haven’t derailed government finances—Bangladesh’s fiscal deficit is much lower than India’s.


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A World Bank policy research paper points out that the most important factors for the decline of poverty in Bangladesh were higher real wages and higher productivity, while lower dependency ratios and a big increase in international remittances also helped.

Why are real wages rising in Bangladesh? It’s here that the garment industry comes in. Over the past few years, Bangladesh has successfully used its low-cost advantage to become a base for garment manufacturing. This has led to the migration of millions of people from rural areas into the manufacturing sector, with women being the biggest beneficiaries. Significantly, the share of employment in the formal sector in Bangladesh is 27.9%, well above that in India, and the proportion of working women in formal employment is even higher. India’s draconian labour laws have ensured that we miss out on the relocation of low-cost manufacturing out of China.

Also, the rise in non-farm employment, together with the increase in remittances from Bangladeshis working abroad (Bangladesh has a current account surplus thanks to them), has led to rising real wages in the countryside and a reduction in poverty rates. Jobs for the masses are the surest means of pulling people out of poverty. Contrast India’s jobless growth.

This is by no means the whole story. The improvement in social outcomes could not have happened without the country’s vast network of non-govern-mental organizations (NGOs), which have been at the forefront of improving health in rural areas. The country’s extensive microfinance programmes have also helped dent poverty. Microfinance is a contentious subject, with many claiming it does little for development and instead traps people in a cycle of debt. Other studies, however, have found significant welfare gains resulting from microcredit participation, especially for women. Research by S.R. Osmani (2012) found that in Bangladesh, “If microcredit had not existed rural poverty would have been almost 5 per cent higher than what it was in 2010."

In short, a combination of higher real wages, higher productivity in farms, the use of NGOs as agencies for social development, and remittances from abroad have all helped provide a measure of inclusive growth in Bangladesh.

In India, however, growth has been far less inclusive. The paper by Agarwal and Whalley points out that the elasticity of reduction in poverty, malnourishment, infant mortality, child mortality and maternal mortality with respect to growth of per-capita GDP is much less in India than for other countries and regions and even lower than sub-Saharan Africa (see chart). That means the impact on poverty and other social indicators of a percentage point growth in per-capita GDP is lower in India than for most other regions.


India’s GDP growth in 2012, according to the IMF, was lower than Bangladesh’s and is forecast to be lower in 2013 and 2014 as well. The IMF seems to believe that Indian rates of growth will be near that of Bangladesh in the near future. That will hurt our already-poor social welfare measures. It may be time we learnt something from Bangladesh.
Sorry, it is unfortunate that I have little time to read long posts and grasp their true meaning. However, I must say we better do not measure and compare our loin clothes in the open.

All the South Asian countries remain poor and impoverished. Why compare our small loin clothes with each other then? We should compare ourselves with other developing/ developed countries in our east.

All of us remain at the lowest rung of a ladder. All means BD, India, Nepal, Bhutan, SL, the Maldives, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. It seems modernity will not come over our faith matters and we are destined to remain as poor as we are now.

No modernization of thoughts and no modernization of the economy.

I understand that comparing Loin cloths and Langotis are futile.

But we should look at ways in which some formula has worked better in Bangladesh vs. other countries, which rest of them can use. There is common culture in South Asian countries, and we can take lessons in some things from each other, unless ego becomes an issue.
 
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This is one of the writeups about the Digital Consumer Class in Bangladesh...

Bangladesh on track to be top consumer nation by 2030
Tribune Report
  • Published at 08:06 pm December 14th, 2021
Shopping Mall

File photo of Bashundhara City Shopping Complex Mehedi Hasan/Dhaka Tribune

Today, the consumer class is global and increasingly Asian, with spending by the Asian middle-class exceeding that in Europe and North America combined, according to economists.

Despite Covid-19, the global consumer class, i.e., those who are in the middle-class or are rich, is growing fast.

The global consumer class can be defined as anyone living in a household spending at least $11 per day per person, of which the global middle-class ($11-$110 per day) represents the lion’s share with 3.75 billion people.

And Bangladesh is one of the top performers in that race as the country is forecast to have very large increases, in the tens of millions, in the consumer class numbers by 2030.

Bangladesh is expected to jump 17 notches from the 28th to the 11th biggest consumer class of 85 million people, according to World Data Lab MarketPro.

Although the country’s global share of consumer class was about 0.8% last year, it is expected to constitute 1.6% by 2030 — more than double.
Today, 35 million people in Bangladesh spend more than $11 a day, but by 2030, it would be 85 million, data shows.


The world is experiencing a truly secular shift in the size of this global consumer class, where Covid-19 is just a transitory setback of one or two years in this long-term shift, writes Homi Kharas and Wolfgang Fengler of the Brookings Institution.

Kharas is a senior fellow and a deputy director for the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution since 2005, while Fengler is the World Bank's lead economist for South Africa, Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia.

Top 30 Consumer Markets of this Decade
global-consumers-fig1-1639490562200.png

Source: World Data Lab’s MarketPro

“Since 2000, the global consumer class has grown by more than 4% each year, reaching a new milestone of 4 billion people for the first time in 2020 or 2021,” they wrote in an article in August.

At the beginning of this century, the middle class was mostly a Western phenomenon. Companies were selling their goods in OECD countries, especially the US and Europe. But today, the consumer class is global and increasingly Asian, the article reads.

And today, spending by the Asian middle-class exceeds that in Europe and North America combined.

Everyone is familiar with the consumer class growth in China and India. In Europe and North America, the numbers in the consumer class will stagnate and growth will come about only because households will become richer.

One of the other top five movers in the consumer class is Pakistan, which is expected to move up eight notches to the seventh position with 121 million consumers in 2030.

Vietnam is expected to move up seven notches to the 19th position with 56 million consumers, while Philippines expected to jump six positions to the 14th place with a 79 million-strong consumer class in 2030.

And finally, Indonesia is expected to go up two notches to the sixth place with 199 million people in its consumer class by 2030.

“The big message of this analysis is that the consumer class is spreading across the world, and that many emerging markets will have large consumer markets where supply-chain-scale economies, digital platforms, and local preferences will need to be better understood and developed,” the duo concluded.
 
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you picked up travel as a parameter to counter the argument? what about 30 other parameters he discussed ?

by the way, how does Bangladeshis travel ? they dont fly much, dont use railways often or dont have enough road network or cars for personal commute ? should we consider bicycle consumption ?

I remember in my pre-71 childhood whenever there was a reference to Bangal in any TV show or docu they played some Bangali person sailing in a boat singing "Machi ray, Machi ray" (i started to believe Bangali people can call fish (machi) to come out of river and land in their boat just by calling her)....maybe they use boats a lot?
 
For rail way case in India, large majority of the rail tract is inherited from British India, so comparing railway system in India and Bangladesh can create huge bias since BD is literally starting from zero.
Bold part: No, both Bangladesh and India inherited railways from British India. Every inch of it. I do not know the details of the present status of the Indian railway. But in BD, the length of railway tracks has shrunk by 200 km since 1947, the tracks are not well-managed and BD cannot produce railway components.

It imports them even from India also. It bought also a few old and used locomotives from India. As far as I know, The Indian railway system is way better than the BD one, and its factories can produce coaches, locomotives, steel lines, and all other components.

There is no way BD posters can brag about BD achievements in things railway. BD railway under the govt is a terminally ill patient.
 
As an example, if 100 crore of foreign money enters India, it'll most likely go to paying 1000 software engineers/tech folks in Indiia. Whereas in Bangladesh, that money would end up in 50,000 textile workers, or factory workers.
Well thats a legit point but smartphones are becoming a necessity and an integral part of our lives, and 4G subscriptions in India are mora than 3 times per capita.


4G users in BD: 21.5 Million (2019)(Source) x 8.38282208589 = 180 Million
4G users in India: 680 Million (2020)(Source) (Far more users than BD)

It doefinitely is a sign of increased purchasing power in families. Or else electricity consumption per capita is an even better meteic.


BD annual electricity consumption: 70,594 x 8.38282208589 = 5,91,776

India annual electricity consumption: 15,47,000

(GW-hour/year)(Source)
 
but also handouts from remittances, loans and aid from other countries.
India gives aid and loans to others as well, USA alone owes $216 billion of debt to India and this is not something some politician or stupid Indian Media channel has cooked up.


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I remember in my pre-71 childhood whenever there was a reference to Bangal in any TV show or docu they played some Bangali person sailing in a boat singing "Machi ray, Machi ray" (i started to believe Bangali people can call fish (machi) to come out of river and land in their boat just by calling her)....maybe they use boats a lot?
Bold part: I think you misunderstood the word "Machi"/ Mach, which in reality is "Majhi" or کشتی والا/ ناو والا in Urdu.

There is probably no poem on Mach or Fish in Bengali. At least I have not encountered such a poem. But there are sayings like, "Mache-bhate Bangali", It means something like .مچھلی اور چاول سے ھی بنگالی لوگ ھوتے ھیں .
 
Bangladesh GDP right now is North of US$400 Billion (Nominal) and US$966 Billion (PPP) per IMF. Growing at 6.5% plus per IMF/World Bank estimates.

Pakistan's GDP (PPP) is $1.1 Trillion (see last link).

Karachi's GDP (PPP) is $164 Billion per Wiki.

Dhaka's GDP (PPP) is $210 Billion per Wiki.

All figures are as of 2020/2021 but I don't deny that there may be some fudging on Bangladesh side, no idea about Pakistan.

Of course I could've missed something obvious...





Pakistan GDP PPP is $1.36 trillion.

 
I remember in my pre-71 childhood whenever there was a reference to Bangal in any TV show or docu they played some Bangali person sailing in a boat singing "Machi ray, Machi ray" (i started to believe Bangali people can call fish (machi) to come out of river and land in their boat just by calling her)....maybe they use boats a lot?

Bangladesh has 700 rivers large and small in the Ganges/Padma Delta, the whole place is floating on water. Yes, we make boats and sail them a lot.

Hundreds of years ago - we sent one of our Vanga (Bengal) Kingdom kings (King Vijaya) to Sri Lanka (Sinhala) to establish a Buddhist kingdom. That was the origin of the Sinhala royal bloodline. Vanga also had maritime connections with Burma and Thailand and that is how Buddhism spread there from Bengal.

But yes - we do sail boats, small and large, to transport, to fish, to entertain. The word "Dinghy" is a Bengali word, as are the roots of many maritime English terms. Bengal Built many British Navy vessels which participated in the Battle of Trafalgar.

"Majhee Ray" is a term that means "Hey Majhee". "Majhee" means boatman or boatswain. It is a philosophical term meaning "Mere Maola" who guides your boat (life) through stormy waters. Bangladeshis today are Sunni (Sufi) followers and Sufi philosophy of Islam preaches tolerance rather than militancy in Islam.

Here is a traditional Long-boat race video from Bangladesh which happens around the year. These are similar to Hawaiian/Thai/IndoChina racing boats. This is common across most Asian Buddhist countries where large rivers exist. They are also common in South India.


As far as maritime build traditions - local river transport - local large cargo carriers are built informally without any shipyard support and floated using inflatable rollers, Some of them are as big as coasters which can ply from our coast all the way down to Sri Lanka, along the coast if needed. This one below is a 5000 ton general cargo carrier.

Pakistan GDP PPP is $1.36 trillion.


Mine was 2020 figure I believe, yours is one year later.
 
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Bangladeshis are pretty humble and decent people from my experience. I think Bangladesh's recent successes stem from the fact that they, out of the South Asian countries, have most closely studied the East Asian model of industrialization and thus, have focused on building those labor intensive industries that served as the foundation of East Asian development for decades. It is a sound model.

Obviously, Bangladesh is just getting started and it still has overwhelming poverty, but if it continues on this path, it will become a successful country.
 
Bold part: No, both Bangladesh and India inherited railways from British India. Every inch of it. I do not know the details of the present status of the Indian railway. But in BD, the length of railway tracks has shrunk by 200 km since 1947, the tracks are not well-managed and BD cannot produce railway components.

It imports them even from India also. It bought also a few old and used locomotives from India. As far as I know, The Indian railway system is way better than the BD one, and its factories can produce coaches, locomotives, steel lines, and all other components.

There is no way BD posters can brag about BD achievements in things railway. BD railway under the govt is a terminally ill patient.

Yes the entire Railway Dept. is corrupt to the core. I am surprised they can keep things running. But I believe the punctuality and cleanliness has improved somewhat from two decades ago, and along with some railway line and Station rebuilds, new rolling stock from Indonesia and new locomotives from US and Korea were introduced. Still a long way to go to be anywhere near Indonesian standards.

Here is a video of a light trial of USA built New EMD Locomotive 6602 GT42ACL Broad Gauge Diesel of Bangladesh Railway

Here is a video of the container train being pulled by new Korean Hyundai Rotem 3000 series Meter Gauge Loco (The caption as described is wrong).
 
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