My other thread, where "China canceled $30 billion in debt by 35 African countries," shows China's generosity towards cooperative countries. I'm actually surprised that Vietnam has not taken a more sophisticated approach in its relations with China.
Firstly, China discovered the South China Sea and islands 1,400 to 2,000 years ago. It is indisputable that the South China Sea and islands belong to China. China intends to assert its ownership to the South China Sea and islands to ensure that U.S. military vessels do not freely move along the southern coast of China.
Secondly, Chinese and Vietnamese interests are different in the South China Sea and there is an easy compromise. Vietnam is only disputing Chinese sovereignty over the Paracel Islands, because of the oil in the seabed. In other words, Vietnamese interest is primarily financial. Vietnam wants the oil revenue.
I am certain that the Chinese government is willing to offer a revenue-sharing agreement with Vietnam with regard to some of the overlapping claims (e.g. along the lines of the deal offered to Japan; see citation at bottom of post).
Thirdly, if Vietnam continues to pursue an unilateral goal of grabbing China's Paracel Islands and other nearby islands then the worst-case scenario is that the PLA will march on Hanoi and burn it to the ground.
China is currently primarily a land power. The U.S. is primarily a sea power in Asia. Vietnam is geographically connected to China. There is nothing the U.S. can do to stop the PLA from capturing Hanoi. That is just common sense.
Have you noticed the U.S. is unwilling to invade North Korea despite the North Koreans testing atomic weapons? Why not?
During the Korean War from 1950-1953, China had pushed the U.S. Army into a pocket. According to standard military doctrine, once you have pushed your enemy into a pocket, you annihilate the closely compacted enemy troops with heavy artillery. The only reason China did not annihilate the U.S. Army in Korea was to avoid being nuked by President Truman (see citation below).
Today, China has plenty of thermonuclear weapons. The United States can no longer deter China from using its full might in an Asian land war. Also, China's military technology has become a near-peer to the United States. With the weight of millions of Chinese soldiers behind Chinese military technology, the United States has practically no chance of stopping the PLA in a country neighboring China.
In other words, I'm saying Vietnam's attempt to seize the Paracel Islands will never work. Just ask the Georgians and their attempt to seize control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from the Russians.
Fourthly, the most rational approach for Vietnam is to negotiate with China and try to obtain the best deal that you can. Seek a revenue-sharing agreement along the terms of the Sino-Japanese agreement. Also, ask for overseas aid.
The Africans have already consumed $30 billion of forgiven Chinese debt. I don't think China would notice a few extra billions in foreign aid to a nation willing to cooperate with China. This is the best outcome that Vietnam can achieve.
If Vietnam continues to believe in the fantasy whispered by Uncle Sam of Vietnamese hegemony over the Paracel Islands, you will find the PLA at your door very soon. You will also find Uncle Sam nowhere to be found. Just ask the Georgians. Where was the U.S. Army?
It should be obvious that the United States will not directly fight the nuclear-armed Russians or the near-peer Chinese. China is not currently on a war-footing. However, if China feels threatened, it can produce massive numbers of Type 052C destroyers and other warships at will. China chooses not to do so and Uncle Sam prefers the status quo.
There are limits to the extent that the United States is willing to antagonize China. The United States will not actively intervene in a Sino-Vietnamese war.
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"
Retreat to Pusan Perimeter. American and South Korean forces end more than a month of retreat by establishing, finally, a stable defensive line outside the city of Pusan, at the far southeastern tip of the peninsula. The shattered remnants of the South Korean army and the entire American force in Korea crowd into the tiny area behind the so-called Pusan Perimeter; the entire rest of the country, more than 90% of Korea's land area, is now under Communist control. Over the next six weeks, North Korean forces will launch a series of ferocious assaults against the Pusan Perimeter, hoping to achieve a decisive victory to end the war. But the Americans hold the line, buying time for General MacArthur to organize a counterattack." (Source:
The Korean War Timeline of Important Dates)
America Threatens to Nuke China: A History - The Phora
"US generals actively considered the use of Atomic Bombs from the very beginning, even before China intervened. US presidents considered the use of the A-Bombs after PVA entered.
[From Blair]
On June 1950, Eisenhower met with Collins, Haislip, Ridgway, Ike suggested use of two atomic bombs in the Korea area.
In July 1950, MacArthur suggested plan to use atomic bombs to 'isolate the battle fields".
[From Hastings]
On November 30 1950, President Truman said in a press conference: "There had always been active consideration of its[Atomic Bomb's] use...".
On December 24 1950, MacArthur submitted a list of 'retaliation targets' in China and North Korea, requiring 26 atomic bombs.
In January 1953, US tested its first tactical nuclear weapon, and the JCS considered its use 'against military targets affecting operations in Korea.'"
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China-Japan Oil Deal
"
China-Japan Oil Deal
By Michael Lelyveld
2008-06-26
After years of discord, China has agreed to cooperate with Japan on developing a disputed offshore gas field. But major challenges lie ahead.
BOSTON—China’s decision to share a disputed gas field may mark a significant breakthrough with Japan, but analysts caution that major issues remain unsettled between the two Asian powers.
On June 18, China’s Foreign Ministry confirmed reports that it had agreed on joint development of the East China Sea gas field that has been at the center of border quarrels with Japan for the past four years.
Under the agreement, Japan will participate in exploiting the offshore Chunxiao field, which Japan calls Shirakaba, and will jointly explore nearby areas, the ministry said. While Japan will make “financial contributions” to the gas field project, “profits will be distributed on favorable terms to China,” said the Tokyo daily Yomiuri Shimbun.
The two countries have been at odds over the undersea resources since China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) started drilling in 2004 near waters claimed by Japan.
Tokyo charged that CNOOC was tapping into gas on Japan’s side of a median line in an area known as the Xihu Trench.
China claims a wider economic zone, based on the extent of its continental shelf."
