Depends on how brutal this upcoming war gets. But I would have expected the West are going to pressure Israel for some concession after this war when it finished. like you said, if they went in and take out Hamas, then there is no more excuse for Israel not to support a 2 states solution with at least PLO, the problem is, how long does this war going to last and what is the landscape in Gaza after this war, I would imagine after this war, Tent City will probably look better than Gaza, and I would seriously doubt Israeli nor the west will contribute to rebuild Gaza and Israeli most likely will wash their hand with Gaza, so no more food, water or any supply after this, so do people really want to go back? Unless Egypt takes it up as their business, I don't even think Gaza is going to livable after this.
But again, I may be wrong, and I hope I am wrong, but as I said, this all depends on how brutal this war is going to get.
Consider what that minister said, a sizable number of Palestinians will never leave, knowing they will not be allowed back in, no matter what is promised, if they leave. Having said that, the death toll of the people deprived of basic needs will keep going up.
To find the number of total dead due to Covid we counted the number of excess deaths over the numbers from the previous years. The longer this conflict drags on day after day, week after week, month after month, even in the absence of direct fighting, the death toll from people with chronic conditions, on dialysis machines, babies with no electricity in incubators, etc. will keep happening. They will all be attributed to the
siege. Now that the world’s attention is back on Palestine, and especially if Gaza is occupied with IDF troops with a Palestinian population there, there will be more deaths, on both sides, considering what the people are going through.
Long term, a PLO type government could work, because like Afghanistan, no outside power can nor wants to govern it, but only if it’s part of an actual two state solution (possibly with a tunnel between Gaza and the West Bank to make it contiguous). Concessions on the edges won’t work anymore. Israel hasn’t talked in any substantial manner, with the PLO for 10 years.
The risk of spillover to the region is also high. Deterrence can only be restored if the PLO can deliver a state, and the Iran back groups lose their main appeal.
For the west, the long this conflict continues, especially now that the unipolar moment is over, China is waiting in the wings to remake the global order as Xi told Putin. The reputation (and influence) of the US is also on the line, as an honest broker and balanced partner.
For the Palestinians, a tent city in their own country is better than being third class refugees in the surrounding countries. At least in Gaza they will be visible and the rebuilding funding from the GCC will come soon enough. If a PLO government is in charge, I could see the GCC could fund 1-2 desalination plant(s), a second power plant (with a certain amount of free oil/gas), and port that is run by the perhaps the UAE, covering the need for water, electricity, and the importing of food, medical products and consumer goods. Making them no longer dependent on Israel nor Egypt.
But all this will be for naught if the Palestinians don’t get a real state, not the Swiss cheese that was previously offered to them.
There is also the danger, the longer this goes on, of US forces getting drawn into this fight to take out Iranian backed groups in Syria and Iraq (and possibly Lebanon).
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