Well, I believe that the Israeli claims on their newest system, David's sling is a bit unrealistic. It is essential a heavy modification of the American Patriot PAC-3 system, who's success rate in interception was no more than 20% on a good day, to be realistic, how much improvement did they achieve on the Iron dome? 40%? To be optimistic 50%? Still not enough! With MRBM 50% is a disaster and won't justify the development coast! As for their Iron Dome, forget about how accurate it is, it coasts over $300,000 every time it is used, meaning to intercept a roughly $100-$200 rocket fired at israel it coasts them more than a 1000 times more to intercept it! That is a loosing proposition if you ask me, given the number of missiles that are available and can be fired at once, besides it would definitely overwhelm the system! Maybe that is why Russia and the United States never invested too much into such systems against small caliber rockets cause it simply doesn't make any sense!!! But again, don't underestimate the Israeli advances in Radars and ECM systems, they made some good advances in those fields, their stuff is actually decent, I read a lot about it and I like you I have to give credit where it belongs.
As for the S-300, the VM series is geared more towards the anti-ballistic missile role, more of a defensive system than the PMU series, although by numbers it sounds as capable, if not more capable than the PMU series, however, Russia refused to sell Iran the PMU and instead offered them the VM series, which leads me to believe that the PMU-2 specially is a more capable system against aircrafts, I read in Dr. Carlo Copps review of the S-300 family that the PMU-2 is more capable mainly because of the 30N6E TOMB STONE radar. However in 2008 a new radar, Nebo-M, an AESA radar all across the board (L, S\X and VHF bands) was introduced to the VM series, something which gives the VM series more capabilities like the PMU series, but that is in the VM-4 package which the Russian Air Defense ordered, I doubt it'll be available for export in the same configuration, plus the PMU series integrates way better with the legacy SAMs, of which most countries in the Middle East are still operating making it way more desirable. I believe the PM series are more capable.
As for Iran developing an equivalent to the S-400, I highly doubt that! Simply the technology is not there! Missile technology and their guidance are still behind that of Russia and China, they can upgrade older SAMs they have from the USA and Russia, but radars as advanced as the ones for the S-400, I don't think so! Simply no way, only Russia and China has those, and it wouldn't make any sense to assume that Iran acquired those from either Russia of China because that simply defeats the purpose, I don't know, but believe me for Iran to develop a system comparable to the S-400 is damn near impossible, they can't make an AESA radar yet, however I have to say they do have access to the Nebo-M radar, they even showed it in public, but for them to reverse engineer it, I don't think so. My best assessment is that they put together something out of foreign components they have, but I don't believe its gonna be as capable as the S-400 though, more of a hybrid Legacy style SAM with few modern components. They are trying but their claims are simply too ambitious.
Oh and the Israeli ICBM, it is intended I believe more for show, and for satellite launches more than being targeted towards an actual enemy. A technology achievement more than anything.
