So according to most information out there about the Egyptian Su-35 deal with Russia, the initial request for the F-35 came long ago, even before the EAF decided to go to France and make a deal for the Rafales. So if the F-35 was requested way in the beginning, it was another one of Sisi's & co.'s brilliant maneuvering since they must've known with 99.999% certainty that the F-35 would be denied. And by requesting it and being denied as the first move in the modernization process, that pretty much shifted the pressure off of Egypt as far as being able to pursue other alternatives including Russian aircraft as well. If the US starts bitching and hemming and hawing, Egypt can just say "hey, we asked you for the F-35 and you gave us the middle finger. What do you expect us to do now? We don't want anymore F-16's without essential elements in them (particularly the comms moreso than BVR weapons but the latter too, of course) and if the essential elements will always be excluded -- despite us signing the CISMOA -- that means that any of the F-15s, be it the SE, XE XYZ or whatever wouldn't be appealing either."
That was just perfect the way Sisi handled that and so I think it all comes down to the timing of the Su-35 deal and when CAATSA was put into practice by the US.
According to timelines, this is as much as we know:
In March 2019, it was reported that Egypt would procure "over two dozen" Su-35s from Russia in a deal valued about $US2 billion, finalized in late 2018. Deliveries were expected to begin as early as 2020 or 2021. Deputy head of the Rosoboronexport Sergei Kornev denied the signing of any contract to supply Su-35s to Egypt. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned Egypt against buying Su-35s, saying "...if those systems were to be purchased, the CAATSA statute would require sanctions on the regime."
On 19 May 2020, Russia began Su-35 production for Egypt
Look at all that crazy stuff lol.
- Negotiations were said to be concluded by late 2018
- The deal was reported in March 2019
- Sergei Kornev denies any signing of any contract to supply Egypt with Su-35s
- Pompeo threatens the CAATSA statute should those systems be purchased by Egypt.
So the timeline of signing the contract is key to know whether the US has a leg to stand on as far as the CAATSA statute and we simply don't know when that was for sure.
CAATSA was passed in the US senate and the orange baboon signed it into law on August 2, 2017. This is most likely way before any agreement was made between Russia & Egypt for the Su-35s and so that's why I'm thinking that we really have to wait and see if the US wants to push any sanctions against Egypt because I'm sure it doesn't want to put that kind of pressure as it sees Egypt being a vital ally in the stability of the region (particularly with Israel) and this would affect a lot of that. Also, I go back to Sisi's brilliant move of requesting the F-35 prior to starting any of the modernization process knowing it'll get denies and basically give him the green light and the leverage he needed. "We asked you for one of your better aircraft, you denied it to us and so we had no choice but to go elsewhere." Now he's protected by the laws of self defense and that any country can secure the weapons it needs to protect itself.
I think these few lines from this article's last paragraph pretty much describes the entire situation:
It began pursuing the recent Russian deal as well as French Rafale aircraft after Washington declined to sell Egypt F-35 fighter jets.
Last November, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mark Esper warned Egypt against concluding the purchase of Russia’s Sukhoi Su-35.
However, Cairo appears poised to proceed with the deal and will try to absorb the negative effects which the deal could have on its relationship with the US, knowing that Washington needs its security partnership with Egypt to promote stability in the Middle East.
https://thearabweekly.com/egypts-su...could-spark-tensions-between-washington-cairo
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Egypt, officially first client for the Sukhoi 35 in the MEA region
in
North Africa 14/05/2020
CAIRO / N / AF / ROSOBORONEXPORT / 2018/10 (P / 1781811151143) as of 19/03/2018, This is the title of the contract between Egypt and Russia for the supply of a number of Su-35 fighters from Sukhoi to the Egyptian air forces.
This title appeared today on tender published today on the official Russian website Zakupki with a clear mention of the contract and the production plant that produces the Su-35. This internal call for tenders was launched for the supply of electronic and connector equipment for the completion of the contract with Egypt.
The Egyptian Air Force has ordered 26 Su-35 fighters despite threats of sanctions by the United States against it under the CAATSA law. Threats that have been largely overlooked by India and Turkey after the purchase of S-400 Air defense systems.
The aircraft with serial number 06411, which is currently being assembled at the JSC Sukhoi factory in Komsomolsk sur Amour in the Russian Far East, should be destined for Egypt and would be part of the first batch to be delivered before the end of this year 2020.
Egyptian military aviation has experienced a major qualitative leap in recent years with the purchase of Rafales and Mig-29m2
and with negotiations for the acquisition of Leonardo’s M-346 advanced training aircraft. With this purchase, Egypt has taken a step closer to aerial domination in the middle-eastern region and for the first time acquires a very long range and long endurance fighter aircraft.
https://www.menadefense.net/north-a...t-client-for-the-sukhoi-35-in-the-mea-region/
You know,
@The SC , the Italian mega contract is equally as important in the grand scheme of all this modernization and particularly with the Leonardo M-346 advanced trainer aircraft because the current training is mostly done on also older aircraft, going from the Grob to the K-8 to the L-59E and then possibly Alpha Jets as well as moving into the F-16 for a few flights even if their eventual AC is a different model just to familiarize themselves with some of the latest avionics and this makes that M-346 Aermacchi a very attractive element in all of this as the academy needs a newer, state of the art trainer with the latest avionics etc. to teach the cadets and get them that much further in the process of readiness for their final spot.
That was why we kept hearing a potential contract with the Russian Yak 130 and how close they were to signing a deal for that trainer a couple of years ago. But now that Italy (or maybe even Egypt requesting that specific aircraft) adding 24 of them into the mega deal has become a must in order to maximize the potential of all these acquisitions. What do you think, sir? And
@Amun &
@ARCH٤R &
@Philip the Arab?