Def.pk op-ed: Mutual Blackmail, ETO for Afg, Pak and Ind

[ashokdeiva]

America is bust. They want to send their companies in to make profits. They dont have any money to invest.

we exactly don't know that, they still have the richest Penselvania Oil fields that no one is allowed to lay hands on, they have the richest forex reserves. May be they are not having money to spend on defence any more as their defence ambitions and spending on R&D are huge.

 

[muse]

Aryan


Allow me to explain two very interesting and diametrically opposed ideas and their implications:

The Afghans, under tutelage (read US) argue that there are no problems in Afghanistan, All of Afghanistan's problems are manufactured in Pakistan -- The implication of course is that if you want to fix Afghanistan, you really have to be focused on Pakistan as as the source and location of the problem -- The US in these last 10 or 12 years has lost problem solving tools with the exception of it's hammer (military)

Now when Dr. Lodhi advises that Afghanistan’s stabilisation lies principally and fundamentally in actions taken within that country, you and I and most non-US readers will of course say, "well, that's obvious, why is she stating the obvious?" ---- Except that point 1 of this post is being and has been for the last 10 years pushed hard, for some it's Gospel -it's their "Aha, it all clicks" moment.

If point one makes it into any international agreement or undertaking, one of two things will have to happen, Pakistan as a serious player in the South/central Asia region, will simply be meaningless - and if it resists this, it will of course leave itself open to any number of sanctions --

See, the US don't want, do not seek, what you and I may understand as "withdrawal" , they are seeking a diplomatic mechanism that one, institutionalizes their Chaudry, institutionalizes Afghanistan as Tajik domain and ensures the Pakistan will be embroiled in conflict, this of course is an invitation for the US to re-enter as a "stabilizing" force, read (lets do Iran, while we are it) -

The role of our brother Turkiye's diplomacy is most disappointing.

 

[lem34]

Presidento it is imperative that india does get involved in afghanistan along with china pakistan and iran. It is imperative that we resolve our problems including Kashmir. Also china and india resolve their borders, We have no choice we are the neighbourhood.

America is not interested in improving the neighbourhood it has ulterior motives whether that be containing china or destroying iran

 

[ashokdeiva]

I never said it will be achieved without Pakistan's support. Support of Pakistan is imperative for peace and normalization of the region.

However, may I ask you why is it that we should give more importance to the regional countries, than we should to the US? I am not for or against it, just curious about your point of view.

About why should their companies come and benefit in TAPI - If it were not for the US, there would be no reconciliation process going on today. It would still be Taliban in Afghanistan, and a lot of other problems around.

However, if you are of the idea that now that the US is leaving, we should jump on whatever is there and not allow the US to come back, then it would be a gross misunderstanding. The US has a history of not letting its investments go in vain. Secondly, India is very much aware that without the US's presence, it barely stands a chance to gain any significant presence in Afghanistan.

Pakistan will never want India to have any sort of presence in Afghanistan. To make sure that the situation does not turn one-sided and gets ugly for all, it is very important for all the nations, and specifically the US, to have influence over the major economic activities taking place in the region.

Greater the number of participants, the better it will be for Afghanistan.

I concur with you, when a base point of stability and security is set and every thing from time to achive sustaniability of stable politics in Afgan there is a need for all stake holders presenece in Afgan that includes USA, Pakistan, India.
when that stability is achieved we should also return only leaving our Embasies and its staff there.

 

[lem34]

I never said it will be achieved without Pakistan's support. Support of Pakistan is imperative for peace and normalization of the region.

However, may I ask you why is it that we should give more importance to the regional countries, than we should to the US? I am not for or against it, just curious about your point of view.

About why should their companies come and benefit in TAPI - If it were not for the US, there would be no reconciliation process going on today. It would still be Taliban in Afghanistan, and a lot of other problems around.

However, if you are of the idea that now that the US is leaving, we should jump on whatever is there and not allow the US to come back, then it would be a gross misunderstanding. The US has a history of not letting its investments go in vain. Secondly, India is very much aware that without the US's presence, it barely stands a chance to gain any significant presence in Afghanistan.

Pakistan will never want India to have any sort of presence in Afghanistan. To make sure that the situation does not turn one-sided and gets ugly for all, it is very important for all the nations, and specifically the US, to have influence over the major economic activities taking place in the region.

Greater the number of participants, the better it will be for Afghanistan.

self delete sorry duplicate

 

[lem34]

Aryan


Allow me to explain two very interesting and diametrically opposed ideas and their implications:

The Afghans, under tutelage (read US) argue that there are no problems in Afghanistan, All of Afghanistan's problems are manufactured in Pakistan -- The implication of course is that if you want to fix Afghanistan, you really have to be focused on Pakistan as as the source and location of the problem -- The US in these last 10 or 12 years has lost problem solving tools with the exception of it's hammer (military)

Now when Dr. Lodhi advises that Afghanistan’s stabilisation lies principally and fundamentally in actions taken within that country, you and I and most non-US readers will of course say, "well, that's obvious, why is she stating the obvious?" ---- Except that point 1 of this post is being and has been for the last 10 years pushed hard, for some it's Gospel -it's their "Aha, it all clicks" moment.

If point one makes it into any international agreement or undertaking, one of two things will have to happen, Pakistan as a serious player in the South/central Asia region, will simply be meaningless - and if it resists this, it will of course leave itself open to any number of sanctions --

See, the US don't want, do not seek, what you and I may understand as "withdrawal" , they are seeking a diplomatic mechanism that one, institutionalizes their Chaudry, institutionalizes Afghanistan as Tajik domain and ensures the Pakistan will be embroiled in conflict, this of course is an invitation for the US to re-enter as a "stabilizing" force, read (lets do Iran, while we are it) -

The role of our brother Turkiye's diplomacy is most disappointing.

Muse I now realise why some members have blue for think tank status and some dont lol

I accept what you are saying. But I feel that it is unlikely they will get their way. Not least because there are two actors they can not bully that will play a part namelly russia and china

Even if they were to sanction pakistan cant see china being party nor iran to any sanction activity on pakistan and may well have the effect of loosening sanctions on iran

 

[President Camacho]

Presidento it is imperative that india does get involved in afghanistan along with china pakistan and iran. It is imperative that we resolve our problems including Kashmir. Also china and india resolve their borders, We have no choice we are the neighbourhood.

America is not interested in improving the neighbourhood it has ulterior motivces whether that be containijng china or destroying iran

Yes there are a lot of things, we should all do. A lot of jobs imperative for tranquility in the neighborhood. But at the same time, we all are a lot ambitious too.

Regarding the US's ulterior motives (or say India's)... I am yet to find a country that does not have one. But clear motives and obvious aims are not the pieces this game is played with. We have to dwell in the grey areas. Lose some, gain some, and in the process, progress some.

I some how feel you need to understand that TAPI will fetch Pakistan no less remunerations than would IPI(C) (may be more perhaps, if the US too comes into play in TAPI pipeline). At the same time, owing to all the sanctions on Iran, it will be very difficult to progress in any of the areas, be it the pipeline, or rebuilding of Afghanistan.

And with such passive play of Iran and absence of the US, India will not stand a chance in Afghanistan. It will be dominated by only two countries - China and Pakistan. How beneficial will that be for Afghanistan and rest of the region, I cannot talk more.

 

[muse]

Muse I now realise why some members have blue for think tank status and some dont lol

I accept what you are saying. But I feel that it is unlikely they will get their way. Not least because there are two actors they can not bully that will play a part namelly russia and china

Quite possibly, but Russia and China also went along for the ride in Libya - as did our brother Turkiye ---- Now lets focus on how and why of installing the Chaudry --And the very real problem of Afghanistan, namely that the Talib have thus far not entered reality of the modern world it really is a clash of cultures there - go to kabul, the suburban villages are populated by the Pashtun, almost exclusively, the university students are overwhelmingly Tajik, Hazara with a smattering of Uzbek and Turkoman - until the Talib leadership does not realize that Duniya is a real and valid part of the equation, they will continue to be sidelined, don't get me wrong, in the countryside the attitudes the Talib project are the norm, but even in the country side people want hope of better lives in this world, not the next.

So where does this leave Pakistan? The Istanbul conference is to lay the foundation for the Bonn conference and the Chicago, and it is not a coincidence that these conferences are to be held, where they are -- if indeed, the idea of a new regional security architecture wins wider approval, it will be a monumental event, an event that will change the lives of hundreds of millions and may doom the panjshiri to extinction - I just can't imagine that they will be left alive if such an architecture is imposed on the region.

 

[VCheng]

............................
If point one makes it into any international agreement or undertaking, one of two things will have to happen, Pakistan as a serious player in the South/central Asia region, will simply be meaningless - and if it resists this, it will of course leave itself open to any number of sanctions --

See, the US don't want, do not seek, what you and I may understand as "withdrawal" , they are seeking a diplomatic mechanism that one, institutionalizes their Chaudry, institutionalizes Afghanistan as Tajik domain and ensures the Pakistan will be embroiled in conflict, this of course is an invitation for the US to re-enter as a "stabilizing" force, read (lets do Iran, while we are it) -

The role of our brother Turkiye's diplomacy is most disappointing.

Muse I now realise why some members have blue for think tank status and some dont lol

I accept what you are saying..........................

So you accept the above excerpt as well, as well as its implications, considering that Muse one of the exalted Blue ones?

Please try to to answer that without claiming morality, fairness or lack thereof, for these concepts have no role to play in what Muse says.

 

[lem34]

Quite possibly, but Russia and China also went along for the ride in Libya - as did our brother Turkiye ---- Now lets focus on how and why of installing the Chaudry --And the very real problem of Afghanistan, namely that the Talib have thus far not entered reality of the modern world it really is a clash of cultures there - go to kabul, the suburban villages are populated by the Pashtun, almost exclusively, the university students are overwhelmingly Tajik, Hazara with a smattering of Uzbek and Turkoman - until the Talib leadership does not realize that Duniya is a real and valid part of the equation, they will continue to be sidelined, don't get me wrong, in the countryside the attitudes the Talib project are the norm, but even in the country side people want hope of better lives in this world, not the next.

So where does this leave Pakistan? The Istanbul conference is to lay the foundation for the Bonn conference and the Chicago, and it is not a coincidence that these conferences are to be held, where they are -- if indeed, the idea of a new regional security architecture wins wider approval, it will be a monumental event, an event that will change the lives of hundreds of millions and may doom the panjshiri to extinction - I just can't imagine that they will be left alive if such an architecture is imposed on the region.

Muse have some faith mate. Why would Russia and China accept this. I think that on libya russia was taking the lead and china seemed to back up the russians. I think that as we get nearer to Putin becoming president russia will get more negative on america and west. It could also be said that pronouncements from china and russia after the libyan farce suggest that they may be a bit more careful. Freindship aside Pakistan has been a relativly cheap investment for china to hold india down.

Would china trust and allow america and indians in control over major routes for resources?

What would america have to give to china for china to dump pakistan is the question?

 

[lem34]

So you accept the above excerpt as well, as well as its implications, considering that Muse one of the exalted Blue ones?

Please try to to answer that without claiming morality, fairness or lack thereof, for these concepts have no role to play in what Muse says.

Hey behave cheng dont take that bit out of context. You know I have the ability to wind you up so behave. On the exalted blues stop being touchy just put a blue avatar up with tt written on it. In any event he said if as in hypothetical. I dont think america is prepared to give china what china would want to dump pakistan simple as that. note am not saying chinese wont dump us cos they are our mates I am saying the chinese will not be given what they would want to dump pakistan

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Yes, I am aware of those offers of negotiation. Those offers came on the condition that first the US stops bombing, then the US provides the Taliban with evidence of Osama's direct involvement.

But that is not so relevant, as is the fact that the Taliban at first flatly refused to handover OBL, and that the offers came only after bombs began to rain in that area.

No, the offers to negotiate the transfer of OBL to a third country for trial came about before a full invasion of Afghanistan got underway.

And the Taliban demands of evidence and negotiations over OBL were completely justified - the party engaging in wrong doing was the US, arrogant, unwilling to listen to reason and demanding as always.

 

[muse]

Would china trust and allow america and indians in control over major routes for resources?

What would america have to give to china for china to dump pakistan is the question?

You must have heard of this joke but it's a truism of a sort, that the US military is now the protector of Chinese commercial interests -- look who has the largest commercial contract in Afghanistan ---it's a joke, of course. The Chinese have built a pipeline from Turkmenistan to China - iran feeds it's own oil and gas from Iran into Turkmenistan -- it would be a shame if that pipeline architecture suffered at the hands of the radical Muzlums, wouldn't it? Who better to protect, who better to take the heat?
Question number two is really interesting -- What's Pakistan got that India do not offer??? What kind of trade does Pakistan do with China? And India?? And what the potential net $$ trade that Pakistan could verses India with China?? And Pakistan hosts radical Muzlums and that radical ideology stuff and Pakistanis just can't agree on the rules of the political game, it's always teetering on the edge of some calamity or another Now, I'm not saying any of this is real but Pakistanis are predictable when it comes to abusing fiends and underestimating adversaries - just not enough hard lessons learnt

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

The Afghans, under tutelage (read US) argue that there are no problems in Afghanistan, All of Afghanistan's problems are manufactured in Pakistan -- The implication of course is that if you want to fix Afghanistan, you really have to be focused on Pakistan as as the source and location of the problem -- The US in these last 10 or 12 years has lost problem solving tools with the exception of it's hammer (military)

Now when Dr. Lodhi advises that Afghanistan’s stabilisation lies principally and fundamentally in actions taken within that country, you and I and most non-US readers will of course say, "well, that's obvious, why is she stating the obvious?" ---- Except that point 1 of this post is being and has been for the last 10 years pushed hard, for some it's Gospel -it's their "Aha, it all clicks" moment.

If point one makes it into any international agreement or undertaking, one of two things will have to happen, Pakistan as a serious player in the South/central Asia region, will simply be meaningless - and if it resists this, it will of course leave itself open to any number of sanctions --

And what do you think is the possibility of 'point one' making it into an international agreement on Afghanistan?

And how do you see 'point one' being worked into such an agreement, since it won't be an obvious declaration of any kind?

 

[lem34]

You must have heard of this joke but it's a truism of a sort, that the US military is now the protector of Chinese commercial interests -- look who has the largest commercial contract in Afghanistan ---it's a joke, of course. The Chinese have built a pipeline from Turkmenistan to China - iran feeds it's own oil and gas from Iran into Turkmenistan -- it would be a shame if that pipeline architecture suffered at the hands of the radical Muzlums, wouldn't it? Who better to protect, who better to take the heat?
Question number two is really interesting -- What's Pakistan got that India do not offer??? What kind of trade does Pakistan do with China? And India?? And what the potential net $$ trade that Pakistan could verses India with China?? And Pakistan hosts radical Muzlums and that radical ideology stuff and Pakistanis just can't agree on the rules of the political game, it's always teetering on the edge of some calamity or another Now, I'm not saying any of this is real but Pakistanis are predictable when it comes to abusing fiends and underestimating adversaries - just not enough hard lessons learnt

Possible but unlikely. Empires in decline and new empires do not accomodate each other. Would america give taiwan to china? lol sometimes we forget pakistan is a small cog with nukes btw in a much bigger game