Debate this : Obama fears Pakistan’s disintegration

[Hyperion]

What about MAD, that has kept the whole world safe till this day? Like it or not, we are already there. We can't wish it away, when being pushed to a corner.

No one respects apathy. You know that. So why the vague comments?

I still find these options silly in the extreme.

It is unsettling thoughts like these that make the world wonder on what constitutes a responsible nuclear nation.

Do we hear of Russia or China saying that they will nuke the world if they go down ?

Instead of pondering of such options like nukeing the middle east ( they were the ones who helped Pak all the time and this is what Pak contemplates to do in return !), AF or India without any of them going to war with Pak it would be worth the while to remedy the reasons why anyone would like to take control of Pak's nukes.

Why should Pak allow itself to degenerate to a state that it fractures ?

 

[Screambowl]

a terror free secular Pakistan is what I would prefer. I am against killings and sufferings of innocents around the world who do not even know what hit them and why, just because of some bloody strategic planning.

 

[JonAsad]

PART A) Assumptions & Scenarios:

i. Let's say what the article is insinuating comes true or partly true.
ii. There is a build up of American forces in the Persian Gulf and our Western borders.
iii. Nuclear containment and snatch teams are onboard USN carriers and heliborne teams are being prepped to come in via Western flank.

Scenario1:
Ground buildup (PART A- Article ii)

Nuclear Bluff (Arm all the ballistic missiles with nuclear warhead and point them at important strategic target- Mainly Military Bases in- Persian Gulf- Western Borders- ME- A'stan- whole Israel)

Strategic Containment (PART A- Article iii)

This scenario is practically impossible even for Amrica to fully strip Pakistan of nuclear weapons-

Result: Standoff until some sane minds (other international powers- China- Russia- UN) resolves the issue-

 

[Fazlu]

These do not have to be the solutions, however. If Pakistan decides to cut ties with their home grown militants and systematically take them down, then the USA would naturally be forced to withdraw from engaging Pakistan in an open conflict.

This will leave you free to hold on to your nukes and be free of foreign aggression.

 

[newdelhinsa]

It's a height of hypothetical blabbering.

Pakistan is not going to disintegrate.

Being an Indian I would like to compete with a united Pakistan against whom I would have like to have an edge on all the social development and security markers.

 

[Contrarian]

yes we have been hearing this for the last 20 years........and the beat goes on!!!

Pakistans comprehensive national power vis a vis India has been declining consistently over the last 15 years.

I suggest status quo. status quo suits us due to the above mentioned reason.

 

[Hyperion]

Fatman, Isn't it better that we at least have a credible doctrine to act-upon, rather than being caught with our pants down?
When hostilities start, there won't be time to think. It will be simple and instantaneous. That is a deterrent - Isn't it?

yes we have been hearing this for the last 20 years........and the beat goes on!!!

 

[Screambowl]

add one more option for Indians

'a secular Pakistan'

 

[Hyperion]

Would love to do that, but at the moment seems unfeasible. Baby steps mate. Baby steps!

add one more option for Indians

'a secular Pakistan'

Mate, the whole purpose of the study is hypothetical!

It's a height of hypothetical blabbering.

Pakistan is not going to disintegrate.

Being an Indian I would like to compete with a united Pakistan against whom I would have like to have an edge on all the social development and security markers.

 

[The Deterrent]

Those People who dont have guts to shoot the drones must not speak about others.

It isn't about guts. It is about the policy.

If we (Pakistanis) are against US, it does not matters, because our leadership's policy for now is to maintain peaceful ties with US.
If Pakistan changes its policy like Iran did after the revolution, not only the UCAVs but also the RQ-170s will be coming down.

 

[Screambowl]

Would love to do that, but at the moment seems unfeasible. Baby steps mate. Baby steps!


Mate, the whole purpose of the study is hypothetical!

well then two nation theory will be discriminated. But I don't mind. Take your time. If Pakistan achieve and practices secularism in the constitution, many things will resolve automatically.

 

[Hyperion]

I wholeheartedly agree with you!

Just one edit: Your proposal of amended option 1 is not possible.

First of all, this is a very reasonable area to debate on, thank you. The desire is not to damage US but to build enough credible deterrent so that US refrains from trying such a misadventure. I will answer this in this context.

Technically, if Pakistan wants to avoid such a scenario it has several options:

1) Keep silent and allow US to seize Nukes. This is the option which will, at first glance, produce minimal infrastructure and human life losses. For most nationalists, of course this is not an option. Furthermore, if the regime in pakistan allows this, a) it is likely that there will be mass civil unrest against the regime and whole pakistan. b) Pakistan will, in all probabilities, be subservient to India in the future. It's western province may gain independence.

However, if any civil war results, the infrastructure/human life losses factor may be offset.

2) The second option is to "Engage them hand to hand and destroy all of our precious infrastructure?" Yes, but the idea here is to build up a deterrent. If Pakistani infrastructure is destroyed, this doesn't mean anything to US or has no strategic value. Would Pakistan be able to deter US from trying the misadventure by this option? I don't think this option would deter US. Pakistan would still be completely annihilated (since it is likely to use tactical/strategic nukes to engage US forces, which will invite full scale retailiateion).

3) "Take the whole scenario a notch up and enter the dooms-day category for the region?" Will still result in complete annihilation like option 2, but is the best option considering the deterrent factor. If Pakistan's nuclear doctrine states that it may nuke all US bases and slave Arabs in Middle East as well as in Afghanistan, US will have a stake, a damage to incur. Basically, US influence may be severely curtailed or finished in the Middle east/south asia if Pakistan can manage to target effectively, giving Russia and China a free hand. In return, Pakistan would be completely annihilated but the deterrent factor would be ensured. This will ensure that US does not have the courage to initiate the misadventure in the first place.

But this has to be made clear, by action or words, before hostilities start.

Mate, don't engage.

It isn't about guts. It is about the policy.

If we (Pakistanis) are against US, it does not matters, because our leadership's policy for now is to maintain peaceful ties with US.
If Pakistan changes its policy like Iran did after the revolution, not only the UCAVs but also the RQ-170s will be coming down.

 

[Gandhi G in da house]

What India wants -

1.Pakistan to leave its claim on Indian J&K . Convert LOC to International border

2. Quit supporting insurgencies in India

3.Get rid of all its terror groups , be they anti India , Anti sufi ,anti Shia , anti Afghanistan , anti Pakistan , Anti America or anti anyone else . If That needs Pakistan to be stable and prosperous then we would want that as well .

There is nothing else India wants from Pakistan

 

[ice_man]

What India wants -

1.Pakistan to leave its claim on Indian J&K . Convert LOC to International border

2. Quit supporting insurgencies in India

3.Get rid of all its terror groups , be they anti India , Anti sufi ,anti Shia , anti Afghanistan , anti Pakistan , Anti America or anti anyone else . If That needs Pakistan to be stable and prosperous then we would want that as well .

There is nothing else India wants from Pakistan

are we talking about INDIA or DALAI LAMA???? maybe mother teresa even? peace love harmony & ZEN!

besides WHO cares what india wants!!

 

[third eye]

What about MAD, that has kept the whole world safe till this day? Like it or not, we are already there. We can't wish it away, when being pushed to a corner.

No one respects apathy. You know that. So why the vague comments?

Which comment was found to be vague ?

MAD implies destruction of a power that attacks not unsuspecting targets like the middle east / Af who would never go to war with Pak.

Attacking them with nukes as retaliation to strikes from another power displays an immature streak which is not expected from a Nuclear nation.