And that would be? Seriously I feel it is Rafale of bust. If the Rafale deal calls through for whatever reason the IAF is going to be stuck with the current situation- LCA trudging along, MKIs on order (maybe a few more SQDs if the Rafale deal is called off), FGFA under devlopment and the AMCA just on the horizon. Faced with a self-imposed 2019 deadline for all MIG-21 and 27 and many Jags to be phased out the IAF is facing a very acute SQD numbers crunch and unless the intake increases the SQD strength is going to plummet come 2019 and won't recover for a good 4-6 years to pre-2019 levels (which are already way below the sanctioned strength of the IAF).The IAF said it wanted and is planning for 45-50 fighter SQDs by 2027-30.
The EFT is a no go IMHO despite it being the L2 bidder.
Even if the EFT goes through you're looking at post 2019 deleiveries IMHO as it will take a good 2-3 years just to hammer out a deal and then another 3 years for first delivery. The case would be the same for additional MKI orders, you're not going to get delivers of these extra units for a good 4-5 years and then one has to ask what damage would an extension to HAL's MKI production lines do to the IAF's FGFA production as the FGFA is set to use the exact same MKI production lines and the FGFA's current production timelines are based on MKI prodcition coming to an end by the end of this decade for which re- tooling and expansion at Nasik has already begun. The knock-on effect to the FGFA program (an incredibly important project for the IAF) could be signifcant.
Then one has to say that neither the MKI nor EFT to adequately meet the IAF's vision for their Rafale's ie multi-role assets focusing primarily on the strike role. The MKI's is designated an "Air Dominace" fighter by the IAF. The EFT's A2G Capabilties or rather lack thereof have been clearly exposed and the all-solving Tranche 3 upgrade is a long way off and mostly unfunded by the partner nations as of now. The EFT too is designed to fight more in the A2A domain. The Rafale really is what the IAF wants and needs.
Like I said, it really is Rafale or bust for India/the IAF too (just don't tell the French that
).