Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Taygibay]

Reality check on a random train of thoughts :

What radar the Gripen now uses ( as of June 2016 ) :

​

What is coming for it ( Selex AESA Raven 05 ) :

​

What GaN based radar SAAB is actually selling ( Giraffe 4-8 ) :

http://saab.com/land/istar/multi-role-surveillance-system/giraffe-4a/

SO ...

... with a couple buddies, we shared brewskis trying to see how the latter would fit on the former ...
but even once fully plastered, we did not find it credible for a second and had to dismiss it.​

Only in a confused mind could this be the result :

​

Of course, on paper it made sense?

​

 

[randomradio]

I haven't seen it yet. Could you send a link?

http://www.business-standard.com/ar...k-turnaround-in-new-tejas-115102701594_1.html

You didn't understand my break-up.
HAL+MII -> two production lines churning out 32 jets per year.

That's even more ingenious. Then IAF will only purchase a lot of Mk1As because Mk2 will start coming in only after 2023 or 2024. If a private company is to set up a competing line, then even they need an order for 120 jets. IAF is not stupid enough to order the Mk1A in such large quantities.

And today there is no private company in India that can build a supply chain and deliver a jet from scratch, that's the purpose of the import JVs. The private companies cannot rely completely on HAL's expertise because HAL will be a direct competitor. HAL wants Parrikar to cancel the Rafale deal and order 300 LCAs by boosting production to 24 per year. There is no way HAL will allow the LCA to fall in the hands of a private company.

HAL wants to deliver all the LCAs to the armed forces and also to the export market. That's not going to change anytime soon.

Come on dude, start making sense. You and @Taygibay think the Indian aerospace industry that's not built a single jet on its own over the last 30 years will suddenly start churning jets out by the dozens every year? We will be lucky to manage 16 jets a year by HAL alone. We haven't even completely managed 16 MKIs a year with Sukhoi. The private industry has to build up its manpower from scratch, it has no chance of lasting against HAL's monopoly without help from foreign OEMs. A handful have only recently built up their capacities as Tier 1 subcontractors with OEM assistance. The Chinese have taken over 20 years and a lot of stealing to get to where they are today. We want to do that in 10.

I went through some documents again. What Thales/Dassault is suggesting is that the GaN modules can be miniaturized thereby using them to integrate arrays spread over the surface of the airframe (front, conformal, wings, rear etc) to give a 360deg view without any blind spots (Interestingly what IAF want in the FGFA)

It's not clear if we will go for this configuration.

 

[Stephen Cohen]

@randomradio

Mate ; Any news about Rafale deal

 

[randomradio]

Reality check on a random train of thoughts :

What radar the Gripen now uses ( as of June 2016 ) :

View attachment 313834
​

What is coming for it ( Selex AESA Raven 05 ) :

View attachment 313835
​

What GaN based radar SAAB is actually selling ( Giraffe 4-8 ) :

View attachment 313836​

http://saab.com/land/istar/multi-role-surveillance-system/giraffe-4a/

SO ...
​

... with a couple buddies, we shared brewskis trying to see how the latter would fit on the former ...
bu even fully plastered, we did not find it credible for a second and had to dismiss it.

Only in a confused mind could this be the result :

View attachment 313838​

Of course, on paper it made sense?

View attachment 313837

​

Read this
https://defence.pk/threads/dassault...ussions-thread-2.351407/page-262#post-8415816

@randomradio

Mate ; Any news about Rafale deal

It's with Parrikar apparently.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Some small snippets

1. Rafale deal final price file note pending with DM MP.
2. Internally MP note once forwarded will lead to 4-6 weeks more time before CCS will look into the approval and signing part of the contract. So July end to Aug middle or till August end seems more plausible option.
3. Among the other news
   • F16 line transfer is the most legitimate offer from USA side but DM MP not impressed.
   • In the words of DM MP it's a generation old technology and experts have suggested that it's running in lifeline of tech upgrades with no long term future prospects.
   • The same experts opined that instead of a fleet of 160 F16 India can very well buy 4 squadrons of F35 or 60 odd F35s as they will do more than enough instead of F16s. But such a small number won't give any kind of MII benefit at all.
   • The latest offer from Boeing does not have make in India plan. Instead it plans to build parts of the F18 in TASL like doing the work of Apache in TASL facility. This way Boeing has pitched in a deal for 80 jets directly supplied from USA. Boeing has assured delivery at the rate of 24+ jets a year and the whole delivery of the order in max 5 years with delivery starting from 1.5years of contract signing.
   • Again DM MP not impressed.
   • The much publicised campaign of Gripen E is also going nowhere. The blacklisting of Finmeccanica and replacement of its products by Israeli is going no place. The Saab has requested a last week of July date for submitting a new offer with such issues being sorted.
   • Saab has pitched Gripen E as LCA Mk2 and is saying technological know how can flow into Mk1A.
   • DM MP not impressed.
   • Eric Trappier has sent a verbal communication via some official (rumoured to be french ambassador) with careful words saying Dassault geared up for tranche 1 order of 90 jets. DM MP has reverted back that Dassault needs to give more under packaged deal and take not just tranche 1 but all 5 tranches.
   • A good news is F21 heavy water torpedo won't require major modifications in scorpene and Arihant. The modification will be very minor in nature.
4. FGFA internal date is now 2026 and beyond. A proposal to evaluate PAKFA is planned in 2020-21. If it meets the evaluation and if IAF agrees, between 2022-27 in 5 years a total of 100 PAKFA may be planned as a back up in case MII portions are delayed.
5. LCA review and status of progress in coming weeks.MP is seriously contemplating a private line under MII. Lead names - L&T, Tata Aero and Reliance Defence. Mahindra aerospace may also make the cut for evaluation. Serious names being L&T and TASLwith L&T as front runner.

 

[W@rwolf]

That's even more ingenious. Then IAF will only purchase a lot of Mk1As because Mk2 will start coming in only after 2023 or 2024. If a private company is to set up a competing line, then even they need an order for 120 jets. IAF is not stupid enough to order the Mk1A in such large quantities.

And today there is no private company in India that can build a supply chain and deliver a jet from scratch, that's the purpose of the import JVs. The private companies cannot rely completely on HAL's expertise because HAL will be a direct competitor. HAL wants Parrikar to cancel the Rafale deal and order 300 LCAs by boosting production to 24 per year. There is no way HAL will allow the LCA to fall in the hands of a private company.

HAL wants to deliver all the LCAs to the armed forces and also to the export market. That's not going to change anytime soon.

Come on dude, start making sense. You and @Taygibay think the Indian aerospace industry that's not built a single jet on its own over the last 30 years will suddenly start churning jets out by the dozens every year? We will be lucky to manage 16 jets a year by HAL alone. We haven't even completely managed 16 MKIs a year with Sukhoi. The private industry has to build up its manpower from scratch, it has no chance of lasting against HAL's monopoly without help from foreign OEMs. A handful have only recently built up their capacities as Tier 1 subcontractors with OEM assistance. The Chinese have taken over 20 years and a lot of stealing to get to where they are today. We want to do that in 10.

Competing lines? What are you taking about? The private company's production line is not competing with HAL's line, rather augmenting it such that more jets can be delivered per year. Also its not HAL's decision whether to hand over part of the production of Tejas to pvt players, its MoD.
If it is decided, then HAL will have no choice but to help the company set up a parallel production line. As i said earlier, HAL wont have any revenue losses because of this, since they'll be upto their necks with other projects.

The total order for Tejas would be 337 jets.
Tejas Mk-1 = 20+20
Tejas Mk-1A = 108
Tejas Mk-2 = 144
NLCA Mk-2 = 45

After Mk-1 production ends in 2019, Mk-1A production will begin.

This is one possibility of the production schedule.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

1. • Eric Trappier has sent a verbal communication via some official (rumoured to be french ambassador) with careful words saying Dassault geared up for tranche 1 order of 90 jets. DM MP has reverted back that Dassault needs to give more under packaged deal and take not just tranche 1 but all 5 tranches.

5 Tranches?
That's 90*5=450?
How does this comply with a second MMRCA and with a single engine new fighter?

 

[[Bregs]]

Some small snippets

1. Rafale deal final price file note pending with DM MP.
2. Internally MP note once forwarded will lead to 4-6 weeks more time before CCS will look into the approval and signing part of the contract. So July end to Aug middle or till August end seems more plausible option.
3. Among the other news
   • F16 line transfer is the most legitimate offer from USA side but DM MP not impressed.
   • In the words of DM MP it's a generation old technology and experts have suggested that it's running in lifeline of tech upgrades with no long term future prospects.
   • The same experts opined that instead of a fleet of 160 F16 India can very well buy 4 squadrons of F35 or 60 odd F35s as they will do more than enough instead of F16s. But such a small number won't give any kind of MII benefit at all.
   • The latest offer from Boeing does not have make in India plan. Instead it plans to build parts of the F18 in TASL like doing the work of Apache in TASL facility. This way Boeing has pitched in a deal for 80 jets directly supplied from USA. Boeing has assured delivery at the rate of 24+ jets a year and the whole delivery of the order in max 5 years with delivery starting from 1.5years of contract signing.
   • Again DM MP not impressed.
   • The much publicised campaign of Gripen E is also going nowhere. The blacklisting of Finmeccanica and replacement of its products by Israeli is going no place. The Saab has requested a last week of July date for submitting a new offer with such issues being sorted.
   • Saab has pitched Gripen E as LCA Mk2 and is saying technological know how can flow into Mk1A.
   • DM MP not impressed.
   • Eric Trappier has sent a verbal communication via some official (rumoured to be french ambassador) with careful words saying Dassault geared up for tranche 1 order of 90 jets. DM MP has reverted back that Dassault needs to give more under packaged deal and take not just tranche 1 but all 5 tranches.
   • A good news is F21 heavy water torpedo won't require major modifications in scorpene and Arihant. The modification will be very minor in nature.
4. FGFA internal date is now 2026 and beyond. A proposal to evaluate PAKFA is planned in 2020-21. If it meets the evaluation and if IAF agrees, between 2022-27 in 5 years a total of 100 PAKFA may be planned as a back up in case MII portions are delayed.
5. LCA review and status of progress in coming weeks.MP is seriously contemplating a private line under MII. Lead names - L&T, Tata Aero and Reliance Defence. Mahindra aerospace may also make the cut for evaluation. Serious names being L&T and TASLwith L&T as front runner.

some interesting news but still rafale deal is uncertain when it will be signed because price is still not decided as DM asking for more attractive package ?

 

[Taygibay]

DM MP has reverted back that Dassault needs to give more under packaged deal and take not just tranche 1 but all 5 tranches.

That's one of the most credible rumour in a while!
It would be advantageous for your DM as he signs the first order to force
Dassault to go all in and extending those tranches we had talked about
provides maximum leverage which would work for the Élysée too BTW!

If true, it's a proper poker play for once; let's see where it goes.

And good day all, Tay.

@Picdelamirand-oil

Those are the tranches you are wondering about :

subs - SSN and NG SSBN

Next Gen bcz present Arihant class of 3 subs are baby boomers..The next one will sport 12-16 VLS silos with the real deal of 12m length 2m width, 1 tonne warhead with 3 MIRV (200kt 270kg each) + possibly 2-3 Dummies in a flower shape.
Thats also the one which will sport the Brahmos NG LACM/AShM fired from torpedo tubes.



Thats the idea quicker induction.


+++

tagging @Abingdonboy too

Vstol says Rafale M may be there in IAC1. If it happens then surely 42-45 will be ordered from merignac as IAC1 will come by Dec 06,2019..

so effectively in Merignac - 36+18+ 27 (45-18) = 81 or may be fully 36+18+45 = 99

thus there should not be any surprise here..

If Merignac gets 100 jets, then multiply it with 3+ minimum and Indian line will get 300+ jets....

simply
IAC1 45 (30 jets on deck)
IAC1 follow on - 2 nos - (36 jets on deck) - 100
IAC2 - 1 numbers - 54 jets
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rafale M market - 45+100+54 - 199
Merignac line for Rafale M - 45+18 = 63
Indian Line for Rafale M= 136 Jets

IAF need 190 jets
------------------------------------------

Indian line potential - 326 jets

I am not considering IAC2 second ship but if such a ship is constructed parallely add another 54 jets either in Merignac or in India Or it may sport AMCA also if its not a parallel construction.

The important factor is the cost part when such a deal works out over time and how much localisation actually brings in benefits to MIC, skill development and cost reduction..

https://defence.pk/threads/dassault-rafale-tender-news-discussions-thread-2.351407/page-196
... and ensuing posts oeuf corse, Tay.

 

[BON PLAN]

it's true

prove it !

 

[C130]

prove it !

http://www.bga-aeroweb.com/Defense/F-18-Super-Hornet.html

USN bought 37 F/A 18 E/F in 2013 for $2.57 billion/37=$69 million each, but I read ASH mod would tack another 10% to 15% so that's about $8.5 million more to the cost so $77.5 million flyaway cost


http://aviationweek.com/defense/boeing-faces-march-decision-fa-18-ef-ea-18g

Boeing is currently producing 48 of the aircraft annually, with its portion at a flyaway cost of $37 million, Gibbons says. This excludes the price of two General Electric engines and electric warfare systems, both of which are government-furnished equipment. The total flyaway cost for a Super Hornet is roughly $50 million, he says. The Growler, which includes jammers and specialized avionics, costs about $9 million more per jet, he adds. The fiscal year 2014 budget request, yet to be enacted by Congress, requests enough aircraft to reduce that rate to 36 annually.

 

[Spectre]

That's one of the most credible rumour in a while!
It would be advantageous for your DM as he signs the first order to force
Dassault to go all in and extending those tranches we had talked about
provides maximum leverage which would work for the Élysée too BTW!

If true, it's a proper poker play for once; let's see where it goes.

And good day all, Tay.

@Picdelamirand-oil

Those are the tranches you are wondering about :



https://defence.pk/threads/dassault-rafale-tender-news-discussions-thread-2.351407/page-196
... and ensuing posts oeuf corse, Tay.

Nonsense Mon'amie. Couple of things in public domain and few in private one which negates this "rumeurs"

- Defense Budget allotments do not support this optimisitic projections unless there is a manifold percentage point increase which is unlikely due to the internal political situation such as major elections in '17. 18 and '19 which would would compel the Union Govt to dish out populist soaps and like. Infact the current budget was the best time politically speaking but the Govt shyed out and diverted money to Social Welfare schemes

- Package deal would require an Indian "agency" None except HAL are equipped financially or technologically to fill that role because of complete lack of skilled manpower and end to end aero-space fabrication and manufacturing experience. All this will make technological absorption impossible. HAL is not going to work out with DA - made clear in MMRCA. TATAs and L&Ts are competent sub system fabricators but would take atleast a decade to even get upto HAL level.

- Stronger alternative proposals from other vendors which would somehow mitigate the earlier problems. Deal by Americans is to establish a fully owned subsidiary in India which would assume all the risks and further do incremental transfers to HAL from Day Zero. Meanwhile stocks would be transferred to make up for the immediate shortage. The transferred stocks are transferred free or at nominal cost with only training, maintenance and support to be paid for.

- Push is there to close the 36, DA is for good or bad is in competition for the MII portion. There will not be two foreign MII firms. DA is not offering a cost effective solution and ancillary benefits as earlier expected when it comes to Naval technology and does not have credible options in UAV/UCAV which others are offering.

@PARIKRAMA Congrats on the new HAT!

 

[Agent_47]

Again DM MP not impressed.

@PARIKRAMA for the life of me i don't understand why we need more imported aircrafts. Considering + 90 rafale is fixed and LCA mk1(120) + mk2 (140) is good enough to fill remaining gap in the 42 sqd. Why do we need SH,F16 or Gripen. Why are we even thinking about it ?

 

[Taygibay]

No E at ami please, I could take offense old-school style!

Package deal would require an Indian "agency" None except HAL are equipped financially or technologically to fill that role because of complete lack of skilled manpower and end to end aero-space fabrication and manufacturing experience. All this will make technological absorption impossible.

No, Éric Trappier explained in details that each OEM of the Rafale GIE able and willing to outsource
would build their own industrials link & JVs to achieve that goal.
We are not talking about exporting the line as one whole here.

In essence, the 250 people strong composite/nanomaterial parts maker
could set up shop in india to produce your Rafale bits. To build around a
core of 10 French guys, he'll hire 90 Indians.
And he'll train them fully as he did with his French peeps back in France!

Because here's the fun part, when an engineer or doctor comes out of school
he or she is still years from being top notch on the terrain. In high tech industries,
job providers like adaptable youngsters yet unspecialized that grow on the job.

And not being racist, I refuse to admit to a reason why Indians would not do as
well as any other!

Stronger alternative proposals from other vendors

LOL, name one?

Have a great day mate, Tay.

 

[randomradio]

Competing lines? What are you taking about? The private company's production line is not competing with HAL's line, rather augmenting it such that more jets can be delivered per year. Also its not HAL's decision whether to hand over part of the production of Tejas to pvt players, its MoD.

No, it's not HAL's decision. But HAL has way too much power.

5 Tranches?
That's 90*5=450?
How does this comply with a second MMRCA and with a single engine new fighter?

I believe 300+ jets. That's the best case scenario.