Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Jai Bharat]

Where the US is concerned, I would steer well clear, they are barely offering high end tech, are not accepting India's demands and every single defence deal would be subject to their messy internal politics. As it stands their government is effectively paralysed for the next 18 months with the elections and bedding in process of the next POTUS. India can't afford to wait 2+ years.

We will see about that. US presidents are actually debriefed and prepared for their role even before election date, right after they are confirmed for the ballot which is little more than a month away from today. Hilary, the front-runner, is already very well experienced with executive leadership and has an ex-president Husband plus his advisors, I doubt she requires much time.

F-16/18 fighter lines are nearing their end, so cards will be with DM and private Cos. US almost certainly asked for some military sales as part of their diplomatic push for India.

I suspect the current tousle is between F-16 and Gripen to complement Tejas LCA. LM offering the F-16/F-35 combo, with Saab offering Gripen/Co-operation with Tejas Mk2 and AMCA. While F-18 seems nowhere to be found, perhaps quietly bowed out like Eurofighter. Saab wouldn't be lobbying so hard if they had no chance, DM and IAF can tell them off anytime, they have chosen not to do so.

 

[SR-91]

I think India is still quite some distance away from joining the NSG and I expect the Rafale deal MUCH sooner (mext few weeks if Parrikar stops messing around).

Where the US is concerned, I would steer well clear, they are barely offering high end tech, are not accepting India's demands and every single defence deal would be subject to their messy internal politics. As it stands their government is effectively paralysed for the next 18 months with the elections and bedding in process of the next POTUS. India can't afford to wait 2+ years.


I don't agree with your assessment of Parrikar brother. IMO he is putting his personal political ambitions in front of his country. I don't think Modi will put up with this nonsense for much longer especially when other ministries are performing flawlessly. There isn't much to show for Parrikar's tenure thus far.

Think about it for sec bro, he was new at this position. It's natural for him to some time to understand this extraordinary position. Even then he was able to produce policies like OROP n DPP. He doesn't have a dozen of procurements but hundreds of them.

I wouldn't call him slow in decision making process but careful and calculated. Rafale deal is MASSIVE, just the planes will cost us close $30 billion. Who wouldn't wanna be a little more careful with that kind of money besides June is not done yet bro.

 

[Abingdonboy]

We will see about that. US presidents are actually debriefed and prepared for their role even before election date, right after they are confirmed for the ballot which is little more than a month away from today. Hilary, the front-runner, is already very well experienced with executive leadership and has an ex-president Husband plus his advisors, I doubt she requires much time.

F-16/18 fighter lines are nearing their end, so cards will be with DM and private Cos. US almost certainly asked for some military sales as part of their diplomatic push for India.

I suspect the current tousle is between F-16 and Gripen to complement Tejas LCA. LM offering the F-16/F-35 combo, with Saab offering Gripen/Co-operation with Tejas Mk2 and AMCA. While F-18 seems nowhere to be found, perhaps quietly bowed out like Eurofighter. Saab wouldn't be lobbying so hard if they had no chance, DM and IAF can tell them off anytime, they have chosen not to do so.

The MoD has told the US they have no chance after SECDEF Carter's visit to India a couple of months back. The key issue of ToT, private Indian production partner tie ups and end user agreements were not resolved and it is now game over for them; they know that. The US hasn't even been able to get the highly watered down LEMOA signed thus far.


As for US presidential functioning, they won't be sworn in until Jan 20 2017, it will take 6-12 months to fully settle in and have their staff in place (from what I hear) and Indian defence deals will hardly be their first priority no matter who it is. Either way congressional approval will be a cog in the wheel any time India purchases from the US.


And have no doubt, the Gripen would kill off the LCA of it ever entered Indian service, no GoI would allow this now.

Think about it for sec bro, he was new at this position. It's natural for him to some time to understand this extraordinary position. Even then he was able to produce policies like OROP n DPP. He doesn't have a dozen of procurements but hundreds of them.

I wouldn't call him slow in decision making process but careful and calculated. Rafale deal is MASSIVE, just the planes will cost us close $30 billion. Who wouldn't wanna be a little more careful with that kind of money besides June is not done yet bro.

Other ministers with equally large remits (if not more so) have performed FAR better. No sector was performing well when inherited from the UPA and whilst many (power, coal, railways, telecom, roads etc etc) have seen a HUGE uptake in their performance, defence is still lagging pathetically behind brother. The cost for the Rafale project is high but the issue is Parrikar is stalling on the G-G deal for 36 to be procured off the shelf, not the much larger MII deal (one can only imagine how delayed that deal would be under him) when it has been ready to be ordered for weeks (if not months ) now. IMO Parrikar is milking the most high profile deal he has (the Rafale) for all the publicity he can get to further his own ambitions. Look at the likes of minister Prabhu who is performing almost flawlessly with little fanfare or attention requested (he signed the $10BN USD GE and ALSTOM deals and is in the verge of signing the $30BN USD HSR project but there is almost no hype in the media or undue scrutiny because of the way he is operating).

Every day/week/month he delays the enemy grows stronger and the IAF grows weaker. I am yet to see the fruits of his technocratic nature thus far.


And don't get me started on the clearly political decision that was his blanket blacklisting of the entire Fin group that has hurt multiple mega defence projects badly.

 

[BON PLAN]

I would wager that something sweet is cooking b/w LM and India, otherwise the delay serves no purpose.

As for French! Ils ont merdé quelque chose de bien. Their loss, our gain

Stop dreaming. LM is only there as a greyhound in the bargaining between India and DA/France.
You are politically too instable (UAE didn't have the permission to use their F16'60 to fight in Lybia !), specially with a Donald Trump in the white house competition, to rely on.

 

[Piper]

Stop dreaming. LM is only there as a greyhound in the bargaining between India and DA/France.
You are politically too instable (UAE didn't have the permission to use their F16'60 to fight in Lybia !), specially with a Donald Trump in the white house competition, to rely on.

Have a look at how many major defence deals we have closed with India in past 10 years and how many France has closed. That's the problem with Europe, you guys are too stubborn and lack that final push and leverage. US on the other hand as huge portfolio of economic, political and defense levers which present a irresistible bouquet to it's customers.

By the time deal for 36 Rafaels are done, if it is done, we would have sold many multiples in dollar amount of products to India including frontline fighter jets, logisitics and early warning platforms, drones, artillery, gunships, reactors among others. If India dithers then we simply pull the plug on it's greater geo-political aspirations.

 

[randomradio]

If India dithers then we simply pull the plug on it's greater geo-political aspirations.

Like you have tried to do for the last 50 years and failed?

 

[Piper]

Like you have tried to do for the last 50 years and failed?

Did we? All India has, it has thanks to US. Without US there would be no nuclear waiver at NSG, No MTCR. All the UNSC and NSG hopes would not even have been born. Where was India before it's rapprochement with US? Dependent on aid and a minor league player even below Pakistan in almost all of development indicators.

You don't have to like it, but India derives it legitimacy in Geopolitical arena largely due to US patronage behind the scenes. Soviets did just about enough to keep you barely alive, US is helping India thrive. Indian leaders know it and that is why your PM has dutifully visited four times in last two years, more than he has visited any other country.

But remember, what US giveth, US can taketh away.

 

[randomradio]

Did we? All India has, it has thanks to US. Without US there would be no nuclear waiver at NSG, No MTCR. All the UNSC and NSG hopes would not even have been born. Where was India before it's rapprochement with US? Dependent on aid and a minor league player even below Pakistan in almost all of development indicators.

India has never actually needed these in the first place. But no doubt it is nice to become a legitimate nuclear power.

India was as it is today before all of this. Nothing's changed on the ground.

You don't have to like it, but India derives it legitimacy in Geopolitical arena largely due to US patronage behind the scenes. Soviets did just about enough to keep you barely alive, US is helping India thrive. Indian leaders know it and that is why your PM has dutifully visited four times in last two years, more than he has visited any other country.

You do realize that India is using the US because of the China-bogey, right?

But remember, what US giveth, US can taketh away.

India is already part of MTCR, what will US taketh away? In case even the NSG deal is done, US cannot taketh away that either. Sure, we are grateful for what the US is doing, but you need to remember first and foremost that US is doing it out of its own geopolitical interest. The US wants a counterweight to China, you think Japan is your answer? Both India and the US need each other, what the US is doing is not charity. So the US cannot taketh away anything from India or the US will giveth away stuff to China. You never know when a new Cold War might start.

Even though India doesn't want it, the US is already treating India as an ally. So it's important to consider where your interests lie. The US cannot taketh away anything from India.

 

[BON PLAN]

Have a look at how many major defence deals we have closed with India in past 10 years and how many France has closed. That's the problem with Europe, you guys are too stubborn and lack that final push and leverage. US on the other hand as huge portfolio of economic, political and defense levers which present a irresistible bouquet to it's customers.

By the time deal for 36 Rafaels are done, if it is done, we would have sold many multiples in dollar amount of products to India including frontline fighter jets, logisitics and early warning platforms, drones, artillery, gunships, reactors among others. If India dithers then we simply pull the plug on it's greater geo-political aspirations.

What your main customers buy appart weapons is your umbrella.
But India is not not Denmark, Korea or even Australia. They don't need your umbrella.

 

[Dash]

The Rafale deal has nothing to do with the NSG membership.

May be there is. What if India is trying to assess what US could do for her? Orfor that matter anybody will?

 

[randomradio]

May be there is. What if India is trying to assess what US could do for her? Orfor that matter anybody will?

The NSG has nothing to do with Rafale. CNC will be finishing negotiations this month and submit a report to Parrikar.

As for the US, Parrikar has asked the US companies to get all the tech they need to transfer cleared by the Congress first, and then talk to India. This way the Korean F-35 fiasco can be avoided.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Have a look at how many major defence deals we have closed with India in past 10 years and how many France has closed. That's the problem with Europe, you guys are too stubborn and lack that final push and leverage. US on the other hand as huge portfolio of economic, political and defense levers which present a irresistible bouquet to it's customers.

By the time deal for 36 Rafaels are done, if it is done, we would have sold many multiples in dollar amount of products to India including frontline fighter jets, logisitics and early warning platforms, drones, artillery, gunships, reactors among others. If India dithers then we simply pull the plug on it's greater geo-political aspirations.

The US has some truly world class weapon systems but none of the equipment India has procured from the US has been "strategic" in nature. A frontline fighter jet is a VERY strategic asset, especially a MMRCA that is to be the IAF's premier STRIKE asset. There is no confidence within India that the US is a reliable enough partner to source such critical equipment from and thus the French (Rafale) is an easy solution. Considering the fact that part of the Rafale fleet will be dedicated to nuclear strike at any one time and there is ZERO chance US fighters would be sanctioned to do this it is a pretty clear cut case. There is no market in India for the US fighters and both sides now understand this thanks to the US's unwillingness to "play ball" earlier this year.

Yes, in dollar terms the US is probably only behind Russia in defence sales to India but that is a very superficial analysis.


The US needs India almost as much as India needs the US, you aren't going to bully them into doing what suits you of that you can be certain. Push too hard and India will push back.

.

You don't have to like it, but India derives it legitimacy in Geopolitical arena largely due to US patronage behind the scenes. Soviets did just about enough to keep you barely alive, US is helping India thrive. Indian leaders know it and that is why your PM has dutifully visited four times in last two years, more than he has visited any other country.
.

What kind of American exceptionalism drivel is this? India's entire legitimacy on the global arena is thanks to America? Yeah okay. Have fun convincing yourself of that.

If this is the kind off attitude US officials show India then no wonder they are returning home empty handed every single time they visit India despite huge bluster and hype in the lead up to their visits.


India can do just fine on its own, it is taking advantage of US "patronage" as it expedites India's interests but have no doubt everyone understands this is quid pro quo, the US is not doing anything with benevolent Intent. India is simp,y using the US's fears of China to further its own agenda.

Stop dreaming. LM is only there as a greyhound in the bargaining between India and DA/France.
You are politically too instable (UAE didn't have the permission to use their F16'60 to fight in Lybia !), specially with a Donald Trump in the white house competition, to rely on.

EXACTLY. India doesn't have to look any further than its neighbour to see what a mess it would be getting itself into if it signed up for Aemrican fighters. The US is a useful partner to have but is FAR too unreliable to depend on for critical tech. Conversely France stepped up to the plate to support India during the 1999 kargil war, literally on a war footing.

India knows who its friends are.

 

[Piper]

The US has some truly world class weapon systems but none of the equipment India has procured from the US has been "strategic" in nature. A frontline fighter jet is a VERY strategic asset, especially a MMRCA that is to be the IAF's premier STRIKE asset. There is no confidence within India that the US is a reliable enough partner to source such critical equipment from and thus the French (Rafale) is an easy solution. Considering the fact that part of the Rafale fleet will be dedicated to nuclear strike at any one time and there is ZERO chance US fighters would be sanctioned to do this it is a pretty clear cut case. There is no market in India for the US fighters and both sides now understand this thanks to the US's unwillingness to "play ball" earlier this year.

Yes, in dollar terms the US is probably only behind Russia in defence sales to India but that is a very superficial analysis.


The US needs India almost as much as India needs the US, you aren't going to bully them into doing what suits you of that you can be certain. Push too hard and India will push back.


What kind of American exceptionalism drivel is this? India's entire legitimacy on the global arena is thanks to America? Yeah okay. Have fun convincing yourself of that.

If this is the kind off attitude US officials show India then no wonder they are returning home empty handed every single time they visit India despite huge bluster and hype in the lead up to their visits.


India can do just fine on its own, it is taking advantage of US "patronage" as it expedites India's interests but have no doubt everyone understands this is quid pro quo, the US is not doing anything with benevolent Intent. India is simp,y using the US's fears of China to further its own agenda.


EXACTLY. India doesn't have to look any further than its neighbour to see what a mess it would be getting itself into if it signed up for Aemrican fighters. The US is a useful partner to have but is FAR too unreliable to depend on for critical tech. Conversely France stepped up to the plate to support India during the 1999 kargil war, literally on a war footing.

India knows who its friends are.

India is using US fear of China? While on planet earth - China is next door to India and US is continents away. Worst case scenario for US- We leaves you guys to fend for yourself. Worst case scenario for India - combined Sino-Pak invasion kicking Indian butt! and there is nothing India can do about it.

US is unreliable partner? Ask Taiwan! China is not able to gobble up that little fish just because of US umbrella. Ask Europe! We protected Europe for all of 4 decades from Soviet Juggernaut. Ask Ukraine! Had it not for shadow of US, Russia would have annexed all of Ukraine instead of a tiny piece of 90% Russian speaking Crimea and there is nothing they could do about it. Ask S. Korea! Why they sleep peacefully despite having a nuclear armed crazy next door!

As for US weapons and their reliability. Ask the saner members of Pakistan- There is a reason they swear by F-16s despite all said and done and the reason is that it is the fear of F-16 which keeps 100s of sukhois firmly on their side of the border.

Problem of being a smartass is that in the end you end being just an a*s.

 

[randomradio]

Worst case scenario for US- We leaves you guys to fend for yourself.

It won't make a difference. We have always fended for ourselves. Did you know the US planned on attacking India in 1971? The British and American fleet backed off because the Soviet fleet had already reached India.

Worst case scenario for India - combined Sino-Pak invasion kicking Indian butt! and there is nothing India can do about it.

We call that a two front war. China will have to invade India with more than 12 million men if they are to be successful. Mountain warfare is not easy.

US is unreliable partner? Ask Taiwan! China is not able to gobble up that little fish just because of US umbrella. Ask Europe! We protected Europe for all of 4 decades from Soviet Juggernaut. Ask Ukraine! Had it not for shadow of US, Russia would have annexed all of Ukraine instead of a tiny piece of 90% Russian speaking Crimea and there is nothing they could do about it. Ask S. Korea! Why they sleep peacefully despite having a nuclear armed crazy next door!

All those countries are American allies. India is not.

As for US weapons and their reliability. Ask the saner members of our Pakistan- There is a reason they swear by F-16s despite all said and done and the reason is that it is the fear of F-16 which keeps 100s of sukhois firmly on their side of the border.

A more advanced version of that aircraft did not even clear IAF trials. And both sane and insane members from Pakistan claim it's their nukes which keep 100s of Sukhois at bay, not the F-16s.

Problem of being a smartass is that in the end you end being just an a*s.

You started it.

 

[Perpendicular]

China is next door to India and US is continents away. Worst case scenario for US- We leaves you guys to fend for yourself.

There is no such thing as continents away, the moment chinese close that gap they are there, right at your door. US is here cause it doesn't want China to knock on its door first.

US is unreliable partner?

Well, no body can answer that question of reliability better then our fellow pakistanis, year 1971, reliable seventh fleet.

This ain't pakistan or britain, America will learn it slowly, it takes time to adjust to new realities.