Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Do you have any idea of how many of the 2018 onward deliveres are without customers as of now ie could be picked up for the IAF's order? The IAF is going to order their 36 Rafales this year so would they come at the back of the queue?

Normally we will have the following production:
2016 : 9 (2 Store) ; 2017 : 4 ( 7 store) ; 2018 : 6 + (0*3) + (3*2) + 2 +7 = 21 ; 2019 3*11= 33 and so on.
For 2018 I think t-hey will produce 0 during June July and August, 1/month before and 2/month after, and you have to add the store plane.
For 2019 the rate will be 3/month.
So end of 2019 production will be 67
and engagements are Egypte 18, Qatar 24 France 10 ===> total 52
So there is 15 Aircraft possible for India at 2019 end, it could be 7 in 2018 and 8 in 2019 and after that we will share production between India and UAE.

 

[randomradio]

So there is 15 Aircraft possible for India at 2019 end, it could be 7 in 2018 and 8 in 2019 and after that we will share production between India and UAE.

Nothing for France after 2019?

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Nothing for France after 2019?

We will be at 152 Rafale and we want to reach 225 in 2032 so we need 6 Rafale /year but with flexibility: it could be 0 one year and 10 the next one.

 

[randomradio]

We will be at 152 Rafale and we want to reach 225 in 2032 so we need 6 Rafale /year but with flexibility: it could be 0 one year and 10 the next one.

That will leave more money for other stuff. But isn't 73 aircraft over 13 years too less?

I thought you said because of the exports ADLA/MN may buy more aircraft after the 225.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

For the record DPP 2016 is scheduled to be released in April 2nd 2016

Today i was researching DAC approvals for my office work and its impact on DPSUs future and this is what i got from ICICI research team.. below is a table which says a lot

If you see the first price thats the cost of Rafales and price is Rs 36000 Crs

Excitedly, this report on BEL was published by ICICI on Jan 27, 2016

Interestingly, i did have a discussion with ICICI research team on phone and they directed me to news links like this below

Government clears purchase of Rs 39,000cr Russian missile systems - Times of India

and this
Combat aircraft and daily mail UK also reported a $5Bn figure
India may seal $5bn Rafale deal next week | Daily Mail Online

and

France and India agree on Rafale fighter jet pact but debate price | News | DW.COM | 25.01.2016


and internal discussion with BEL officials who will do work with Safran for the Rafale work in India.. They also are doing M2K upgrade works plus weapons work plus different project works including proposed Maitri QRSAM. ..

Beyond this BEL outlook is this in terms of defense contracts

Is not all this interesting..

Did i finally found the true price of whats in offer,,?
Even If i add another some amount an example USD 2 Bn or say Rs approx 14000 Crs for only customization part, its still Rs 50,000 Crs at upper periphery.

This is far below the figures quoted in media and ICICI team is backing it saying look at other deals and how much we are projecting.. You can understand the zone of at least high probability with max +/- 10-15% deviation.

Its really interesting.. right.

If you look at Egypt and Qatar contract you find it cost :

• Qatar deal is quoted € 6.3 Billions
• Egypt deal is quoted € 5.2 Billions

That's a total of € 11.5 Billions

But when you look at the Dassault result, you find:

And there is only €7.9 Billions for export inclusive Egypt and Qatar and Thales and Safran participation.
If you substract the € 0.3 Billion that is the 2014 level you have € 7.6 Billions for 48 Rafale.

So there is € 4 billions extra. in those contracts

That will leave more money for other stuff. But isn't 73 aircraft over 13 years too less?

I thought you said because of the exports ADLA/MN may buy more aircraft after the 225.

After the MLU we will have to replace the older Rafale.

 

[randomradio]

After the MLU we will have to replace the older Rafale.

When will that happen? I thought they will at least survive past 2040.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

If you look at Egypt and Qatar contract you find it cost :

• Qatar deal is quoted € 6.3 Billions
• Egypt deal is quoted € 5.2 Billions

That's a total of € 11.5 Billions

But when you look at the Dassault result, you find:

And there is only €7.9 Billions for export inclusive Egypt and Qatar and Thales and Safran participation.
If you substract the € 0.3 Billion that is the 2014 level you have € 7.6 Billions for 48 Rafale.

So there is € 4 billions extra. in those contracts

if its Euro 7.6 Bn for 48 Jets + Support package+customizations then the average price of all these works out to be almost Euro 158 Mn..
with a discount on that price of 158x36 ~5.688Bn, India may end up much lesser.. With a ~15% discount on this, India may end up closer to Euro 4.8 Bn or $5.1 Bn price tag

With the suppose 25% better terms the price falls further and hence inclusive of weapons which should be around Euro 1Bn for us, the round figure may be limited to Euro 5-5.5 Bn

Whats interesting would be whats in Euro 4 Bn thats not accounted as per you and the figure in that SS
May be 1. Weapons 2. Bank interest on loans extended for these deals. 3. Proprietary work outside of Dassault which is part of the deal but will be executed by a third party.

Of course i understand the weapon deal portion in these both deals is much much larger as compared to perhaps india.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

if its Euro 7.6 Bn for 48 Jets + Support package+customizations then the average price of all these works out to be almost Euro 158 Mn..
with a discount on that price of 158x36 ~5.688Bn, India may end up much lesser.. With a ~15% discount on this, India may end up closer to Euro 4.8 Bn or $5.1 Bn price tag

With the suppose 25% better terms the price falls further and hence inclusive of weapons which should be around Euro 1Bn for us, the round figure may be limited to Euro 5-5.5 Bn

Whats interesting would be whats in Euro 4 Bn thats not accounted as per you and the figure in that SS
May be 1. Weapons 2. Bank interest on loans extended for these deals. 3. Proprietary work outside of Dassault which is part of the deal but will be executed by a third party.

Of course i understand the weapon deal portion in these both deals is much much larger as compared to perhaps india.

There is also training and formation for Qatar which need to create a squadron in France and is paid to French Air Force.

And one frigate for Egypt!
perhaps you could add simulators.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Did i finally found the true price of whats in offer,,?
Even If i add another some amount an example USD 2 Bn or say Rs approx 14000 Crs for only customization part, its still Rs 50,000 Crs at upper periphery.

This is far below the figures quoted in media and ICICI team is backing it saying look at other deals and how much we are projecting.. You can understand the zone of at least high probability with max +/- 10-15% deviation.

You figures certainly reflect the true cost of the Rafale more than some of the absurd prices being thrown around and show them up to be the absurd fabrications they are. To be honest, I am going to hold my breath on the final price until it is actually signed, I think it's an almost trivial detail now considering the seperate MII deal being worked on. Now the focus should be on getting the deal signed ASAP instead of getting lost in the weeds as MP seems to be doing a bit. His relentless focus to "prove" himself by getting some sort of "best price" for India for these 36 Rafale is coming at the cost of unacceptable time delays and he seems to have lost sight of this requirement entirely. If time is money then he is comprimising his own objective (saving money) by every day he delays. Just sign it for the love of God.

Leaving the Rafale aside for a moment,
-what are the "military planes" mentioned that the DAC has cleared for 13,000 crore?
-The DAC cleared 8 more P-8I? I thought the follow on was only for 4 with 8 already being in service with the IN. I would love this news to be true.

Is not all this interesting..

Incredibly interesting bro!

A contract for 5000 crore for new EVMs- wow!

Normally we will have the following production:
2016 : 9 (2 Store) ; 2017 : 4 ( 7 store) ; 2018 : 6 + (0*3) + (3*2) + 2 +7 = 21 ; 2019 3*11= 33 and so on.
For 2018 I think t-hey will produce 0 during June July and August, 1/month before and 2/month after, and you have to add the store plane.
For 2019 the rate will be 3/month.
So end of 2019 production will be 67
and engagements are Egypte 18, Qatar 24 France 10 ===> total 52
So there is 15 Aircraft possible for India at 2019 end, it could be 7 in 2018 and 8 in 2019 and after that we will share production between India and UAE.

So 2 SQNs of Rafale for India by 2020 assuming the MII line isn't in any position to start churning out Rafales for the IAF until at least 2021.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

There is also training and formation for Qatar which need to create a squadron in France and is paid to French Air Force.

perhaps you could add simulators.

I thought training and simulators come in the big figure

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

When will that happen? I thought they will at least survive past 2040.

Air force rafale are certified for 7500 hours and Navy Rafale for 6000 hours. But after several years Looking at the evolution of the airframe Dassault could certified Rafale B and C to 12000 hours and Rafale M to 8000 hours/

Rafale has to fly 250 h by year so we will have to replace Rafale M after 32 years. And the delivery of the first Rafale M was in 2001. Normally the first replacement will be in 2033.

I know your cost composition and definition picture.

 

[randomradio]

Air force rafale are certified for 7500 hours and Navy Rafale for 6000 hours. But after several years Looking at the evolution of the airframe Dassault could certified Rafale B and C to 12000 hours and Rafale M to 8000 hours/

Rafale has to fly 250 h by year so we will have to replace Rafale M after 32 years. And the delivery of the first Rafale M was in 2001. Normally the first replacement will be in 2033.

I know your cost composition and definition picture.

I didn't know the Rafale-Ms were that less. I thought that was only restricted to the F1 airframes. My mistake.

@PARIKRAMA @Abingdonboy

The $5B no longer applies, it is for a much older version, and without weapons. It is $9B for the version we are looking at.

The image with Dassault's exports that Picdel posted obviously doesn't cover the weapons expenses.

 

[Abingdonboy]

I didn't know the Rafale-Ms were that less. I thought that was only restricted to the F1 airframes. My mistake.

@PARIKRAMA @Abingdonboy

The $5B no longer applies, it is for a much older version, and without weapons. It is $9B for the version we are looking at.

The image with Dassault's exports that Picdel posted obviously doesn't cover the weapons expenses.

I can accept that as $5BN sounds too good to be true but $9BN sounds rather too extreme, $7.8-$8BN seems reasonable and the figure currently being debated.

 

[randomradio]

I can accept that as $5BN sounds too good to be true but $9BN sounds rather too extreme, $7.8-$8BN seems reasonable and the figure currently being debated.

I think the discussions are for 8B in Euros. That's $9B. Above Rs 60k Cr.

 

[Abingdonboy]

I think the discussions are for 8B in Euros. That's $9B. Above Rs 60k Cr.

60,000 Cr seems to be the most common figure but MP is pushing for some form of discount on even this.