Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Abingdonboy]

The removal of HAL from Rafale has been very beneficial for the LCA program.

It has been very benefical for both the Rafale bid in India and the LCA, now HAL seems to have knuckled down and are pushing the LCA's development along with the DRDO at full steam.

So numbers can go anywhere in the future. And all these can have options for 50% more with LSA being the dark horse.

Defence News, India to make the most modern fighter plane in the country :: Parrikar
The 'most modern aircraft' reference is directed at the LSA.

If, and it's a big if, the LSA works out, it will swallow up all the other programs as a whole. Rafales may get capped at 90 or 126 along with LCA at 126 and the second MMRCA may get canceled outright.

Sir, how can we seriosuly be talking about the LSA when it has never even been seen in a mock up let alone being ready for fligth tests. The needs of the IAF are immediate to meet their needs by 2025, I don't think the LSA could even be in service before 2030 if started last year so it doesn't seem to even come into the equation.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Dassault results, Trappier speaks several time of Rafale and of India too:
(With translation in English)
2015 annual results - Questions/Answers

 

[randomradio]

It has been very benefical for both the Rafale bid in India and the LCA, now HAL seems to have knuckled down and are pushing the LCA's development along with the DRDO at full steam.

But the problem is AMCA is getting more priority. About 4000-5000 scientists are working on the AMCA right now. A far cry from LCA's beginnings where there were just a few dozen in total. The basic technologies for the AMCA already exist, completely different from LCA which started from scratch.

I don't see much of a future for LCA Mk2 because it will be ready around the same time AMCA is ready. The Mk2 can be exported, but I think it will be completely and obviously overshadowed by the LSA.

Sir, how can we seriosuly be talking about the LSA when it has never even been seen in a mock up let alone being ready for fligth tests. The needs of the IAF are immediate to meet their needs by 2025, I don't think the LSA could even be in service before 2030 if started last year so it doesn't seem to even come into the equation.

The 'sir' isn't necessary. The LSA's development and production cycle is apparently just 4 years after go ahead. Even if it takes 6 or 7, the plan is to make 54 jets a year. The volumes will take care of the rest.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Dassault results, Trappier speaks several time of Rafale and of India too:
(With translation in English)
2015 annual results - Questions/Answers

@PARIKRAMA @surya kiran @Blue Marlin @anant_s @randomradio Worth watching, India/IAF are mentioned throughout but the question at 18:00 is perhaps the most relevent.

"you have sold 36 Rafales to India"-journo

"Not yet, not yet, soon, soon"-Trappier

+ "The Indians always want more, which is understandable, they are a big country with big requirements"

"we are already preparing the second phase of the order that is an addtional order for some 90 aircraft" -Trappier


Speaking about the 90 MII

"we are looking to work with Indian industry, to develop a partnership and really settle in India"

"we are working on this order for 36 but our main activity is on this follow on order to make in India"

"I just got carried away by India"

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

One important information is that Dassault will manufacture only 9 plane in 2016 and 4 plane in 2017, because they set up new capacities to increase the rate of production, and they will produce more aircafts only in 2018: first 2 aircrafts/month then 3aircrafts /month. So it seems they are unable to deliver during the time they modify the assembly line.

A pretty fun item is when one speaker said that Dassault Rafale has no competitors, and Dassault answers: yes, even the F-35, if it worked, would not be a competitor of the Rafale, because its name was JSF where the S is for Strike, which shows that it is not intended to air defense and then it didn't get the same versability.

And the speaker said that in fact the Rafale is very stealth andTrappier replied that we must say Low Observable, as if he did not want to insist too much on this characteristic.

 

[Taygibay]

At 20m+ : directly from French and following many uses of the conditional for all options
in an attempt to clarify that the first is a sale but the addition is a localization of production,

"So, in fact today, there is the price negotiation for first 36 planes,
which is fundamental to be able to sign, but the main part of our actions,
of our activities in India as of now is to prepare the 90 [ MII ] ones deal."​

Éric Trappier, Dassault CEO.
​

When one understands exactly how bright Éric Trappier is and thus how in control when expressing himself,
that single sentence should help re-center the debate.

GLWT, Tay.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Concerning the rate of production, my sources tell me that we must understand something else:

In 2016, they deliver nine planes, three other aircraft produced are intended for Qatar and are stored in order to be adapted to Qatar standard under development.

This is roughly the same in 2017 with seven aircraft stored.

It is in 2018 that we will see large amounts of deliveries, after Qatar standard will be validated and retrofitted.
Normally an operation on the assembly line costs less than one quarter!

 

[Abingdonboy]

Concerning the rate of production, my sources tell me that we must understand something else:

In 2016, they deliver nine planes, three other aircraft produced are intended for Qatar and are stored in order to be adapted to Qatar standard under development.

This is roughly the same in 2017 with seven aircraft stored.

It is in 2018 that we will see large amounts of deliveries, after Qatar standard will be validated and retrofitted.
Normally an operation on the assembly line costs less than one quarter!

Meaning the IAF order for 36 would only begin production from 2018 onwards with first deliveries in 2019, at best.

Considering these 36 jets was touted at meeting the "urgent" requirements of the IAF, this really is quite disappointing. By 2020 another 7-8 SQNs of a/c would have been retired from the IAF with maybe 5 LCA and MKI SQNs to replace them.

I don't see much of a future for LCA Mk2 because it will be ready around the same time AMCA is ready. The Mk2 can be exported, but I think it will be completely and obviously overshadowed by the LSA.

Perhaps the LCA can be developed into the LSA with certain LO charateristics built into it. However, i don't see the AMCA and LCA Mk.2 inductions timelines clashing- the MK.2 will be in service by 2023 and the AMCA will be in service by 2030 at the earliest.

But the problem is AMCA is getting more priority. About 4000-5000 scientists are working on the AMCA right now. A far cry from LCA's beginnings where there were just a few dozen in total. The basic technologies for the AMCA already exist, completely different from LCA which started from scratch.

Well that's good to know.

The LSA's development and production cycle is apparently just 4 years after go ahead. Even if it takes 6 or 7, the plan is to make 54 jets a year. The volumes will take care of the rest.

I can't accept such a contracted delivery and development cycle to design, test, produce and induct an entirely new aircraft. Doing so in under a decade doesn't even seem feasible, let alone 6-7 years. As for production, even if 54/year is the ultimate goal it won't be the case from day one- maybe by the 3rd or 4th year. As such, I don't see how the LSA is in anyway an answer to the IAF's immediate shortfall that needs to be remedied by 2025.

To induct 200 LSA, I would say it will be 2032/3 before such a feat is possible.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Meaning the IAF order for 36 would only begin production from 2018 onwards with first deliveries in 2019, at best.

No, production for 2019 begin now! 3 years to produce one Rafale in delay. There is two different things:

• the rate of production
• the delay of production (3 years)

You can tune the 2019 rate of production now. If you want 1 plane /month you begin now 1 plane by month, and if you want 3 planes/month you begin 1 plane every 10 days. But you will increase the production rate only in 2019. for 2016 - 17 - 18 the rate is driven by the past (2013 -14 - 15) and cannot been changed.

So if during one quarter there is no new start of airplane, in 2019 during one quarter there will be no production except if some plane were stored. After that you will have a better rate of production.

 

[Abingdonboy]

No, production for 2019 begin now! 3 years to produce one Rafale in delay. There is two different things:

• the rate of production
• the delay of production (3 years)

You can tune the 2019 rate of production now. If you want 1 plane /month you begin now 1 plane by month, and if you want 3 planes/month you begin 1 plane every 10 days. But you will increase the production rate only in 2019. for 2016 - 17 - 18 the rate is driven by the past (2013 -14 - 15) and cannot been changed.

So if during one quarter there is no new start of airplane, in 2019 during one quarter there will be no production except if some plane were stored. After that you will have a better rate of production.

Do you have any idea of how many of the 2018 onward deliveres are without customers as of now ie could be picked up for the IAF's order? The IAF is going to order their 36 Rafales this year so would they come at the back of the queue?

 

[PARIKRAMA]

For the record DPP 2016 is scheduled to be released in April 2nd 2016

Today i was researching DAC approvals for my office work and its impact on DPSUs future and this is what i got from ICICI research team.. below is a table which says a lot

If you see the first price thats the cost of Rafales and price is Rs 36000 Crs

Excitedly, this report on BEL was published by ICICI on Jan 27, 2016

Interestingly, i did have a discussion with ICICI research team on phone and they directed me to news links like this below

Government clears purchase of Rs 39,000cr Russian missile systems - Times of India

and this
Combat aircraft and daily mail UK also reported a $5Bn figure
India may seal $5bn Rafale deal next week | Daily Mail Online

and

France and India agree on Rafale fighter jet pact but debate price | News | DW.COM | 25.01.2016


and internal discussion with BEL officials who will do work with Safran for the Rafale work in India.. They also are doing M2K upgrade works plus weapons work plus different project works including proposed Maitri QRSAM. ..

Beyond this BEL outlook is this in terms of defense contracts

Is not all this interesting..

@Abingdonboy @MilSpec @AUSTERLITZ @Picdelamirand-oil @Vauban @Taygibay @randomradio

Did i finally found the true price of whats in offer,,?
Even If i add another some amount an example USD 2 Bn or say Rs approx 14000 Crs for only customization part, its still Rs 50,000 Crs at upper periphery.

This is far below the figures quoted in media and ICICI team is backing it saying look at other deals and how much we are projecting.. You can understand the zone of at least high probability with max +/- 10-15% deviation.

Its really interesting.. right.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

https://twitter.com/x/status/708237970424201216

 

[Taygibay]

"urgent"

Although recognized by all informed or astute observers, this urgency is internal, national!

Trappier said as much :
"I'd say yes it is certain because I don't see how they could not buy but ... as long as the first check isn't cashed,
nothing is gained and the Indians have showed us that it's always possible it may never occur.
So ... when you witness an operational need, when you see how many planes disappear "daily" in India, in a
geo-political locale that is under strain, our plane was properly selected, discussions have been on-going for
years, there's a willingness from us to base industrial means there, ... until the price negotiation concludes , the
deal is signed and the first check is in.
So where are we? We are at the finalization of the price, period ... [ to us ] a detail."

At 37:53 and beyond in Pic's link.​

The bracketed part is added by me to refer to Abingdon's always want more and an earlier quote where ÉT says India "has growth, has money but tries to make do without spending too much" with an overtone of fatigue. He was however talking both for Rafales and Falcons then.

Just sayin', internal, Tay.

At Parik, 7,3 / 7.4 B$ ? Sure! And some of it gained back in the MII part as the two are linked.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Some feelings i feel and wish to share for the whole Rafale MMRCA, Post MMRCA, Off the Shelf and MII saga.

Well

and

Important Bottom line

 

[randomradio]

Perhaps the LCA can be developed into the LSA with certain LO charateristics built into it.

Not possible. Anyway, the design of the LSA is complete.

However, i don't see the AMCA and LCA Mk.2 inductions timelines clashing- the MK.2 will be in service by 2023 and the AMCA will be in service by 2030 at the earliest.

The LCA Mk2's IOC is 2024. AMCA will enter production in 2025, I think the development cycle is different. N-LCA Mk2 will be ready only after 2025.

And IAF is not buying the Mk2. They plan on upgrading the Mk1A with new technologies. And looking at how late the N-LCA will be, the navy may opt for the N-AMCA instead.

LCA program as a whole will continue. It is required for development of AURA and AMCA.

I can't accept such a contracted delivery and development cycle to design, test, produce and induct an entirely new aircraft. Doing so in under a decade doesn't even seem feasible, let alone 6-7 years. As for production, even if 54/year is the ultimate goal it won't be the case from day one- maybe by the 3rd or 4th year. As such, I don't see how the LSA is in anyway an answer to the IAF's immediate shortfall that needs to be remedied by 2025.

To induct 200 LSA, I would say it will be 2032/3 before such a feat is possible.

I'm just repeating what was told by the designer. I've argued along the same lines, he said it is possible. The last we heard, he said 1 prototype will be ready almost immediately after go ahead.

He also pointed out producing this plane is easy. Plus, the Israelis will be involved in the avionics from the start. They will also buy the aircraft in triple digits.

IAF's shortfall is to be fixed by 2027, not 2025. 2027 marks the end of the 14th 5 Year Plan.

For the record DPP 2016 is scheduled to be released in April 2nd 2016

The draft copy has already been made available to the industry.