Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Bratva]

Makes me wonder if 126 jets deal were signed as initially envisioned. It would have costed India 25-27 Billion Dollars. Now if you want to go beyond 36 and closer to 100. The cost escalations will make you bring closer to the price tag of 126. So now you would be paying more for lesser number of jets

 

[Abingdonboy]

Makes me wonder if 126 jets deal were signed as initially envisioned. It would have costed India 25-27 Billion Dollars. Now if you want to go beyond 36 and closer to 100. The cost escalations will make you bring closer to the price tag of 126. So now you would be paying more for lesser number of jets

That is not a very sensible way of calculating the total cost for buying 126 Rafales as the intial costs will always be high as they have to pay for everything; training, infrastructure, spares, weapons etc etc every subsequent unit beyond a point will not have the start up costs attatched to it and further with localised production and higher rate of production costs can be brought down even more.

The 126 requirement for MMRCA remains unfulfilled and will be by Rafales although the total number of Rafales on order/in service by 2025 will be closer to 180 and by 2030 will be greater than 230 as the IN requires a large fleet of Rafales for themselves.

 

[randomradio]

Makes me wonder if 126 jets deal were signed as initially envisioned. It would have costed India 25-27 Billion Dollars. Now if you want to go beyond 36 and closer to 100. The cost escalations will make you bring closer to the price tag of 126. So now you would be paying more for lesser number of jets

The cost of acquisition of Rafales during MMRCA was $120M per aircraft. Today it is less than $100M, most likely $85M, but with new engines.

 

[Armani]

Welcome to PDF

@BON PLAN

++

Prasun Sengupta about Manohar Parrikar:

"At the very least, the MoD now has a RM who is discerning & is willing to take his job seriously & earn his monthly salary & perks, unlike all his predecessors over the past 66 years!"

https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=3545138702780178046&postID=5218993978233472511

 

[Bratva]

The 126 requirement for MMRCA remains unfulfilled and will be by Rafales although the total number of Rafales on order/in service by 2025 will be closer to 180 and by 2030 will be greater than 230 as the IN requires a large fleet of Rafales for themselves.

You should not propagate your PoV as a universal fact. Indian media quoted a 20 billion dollar deal back in the day and your own government accepted that humongous cost was the reason they scrapped 126 rafael deal.

France and Qatar signed a 6.3 billion euro ($7.02 billion) deal on Monday for the sale of 24 Rafale fighter jets, an accord President Francois Hollande hailed as a mark of Gulf Arab regard for French regional strategy including its firm line on Iran.

The contract - the third this year for Dassault AVMD.PA after deals to sell Rafale jets to Egypt and India - also includes MBDA missiles, and the training of 36 Qatari pilots and 100 technicians by the French military.

Who says Rafael price will come down. France will rarely budge down from the price at which it sold Rafael to egypt and qatar.

From Qatar deal single rafael price comes at 290 Million dollar. Lets take at face value what you say that price will eventually come down to 200 million ignoring the fact inflation will not affect cost escalations in next 10 year . So after initial order of 36. How much 36,72 or 100 jets would cost at 200 million dollar a piece vis a vis the the amount of 36,72 or 100 jets would have cost in initial deal of 126 Rafael jets which we pegged at 20-22 billiond dollar in 2012. IIRC the sticking point in the collapsed deal was that India wanted to bought jets at a price which were quoted in 2007-2008 ?

Are french bad businessmen that they are going to sell you jets at a lower prie than that of Egypt or Qatar deals ?


Considering all this facts, how can you say that Indian planners are willing to raise rafael fleet to 100+ and want to spend more money on rafael than the original deal when the sticking point to this day remains the Price of Rafael ?

The cost of acquisition of Rafales during MMRCA was $120M per aircraft. Today it is less than $100M, most likely $85M, but with new engines.

Who says that ? @Taygibay Do you want to correct the gentelman considering what Rafael costed to Egypt and Qatar ?

 

[Immortan.Joe]

You should not propagate your PoV as a universal fact. Indian media quoted a 20 billion dollar deal back in the day and your own government accepted that humongous cost was the reason they scrapped 126 rafael deal.

Learn the difference between sticker price and Life cycle cost. Sticker price of Rafael is same as that of F-16V.

And biggest hurdle against Rafale was on MII, and if this deal get scrapped, it would again be because of MII, not price.

All aircraft in this category cost same.

Who says Rafael price will come down. France will rarely budge down from the price at which it sold Rafael to egypt and qatar.

Are french bad businessmen that they are going to sell you jets at a lower prie than that of Egypt or Qatar deals ?

The price per unit would come down because India is eventually planning to have close to 200 Rafaels, and even more if Navy choose it (which it probably would) to fly from IAC-2 (and even IAC-1 if Dassault could prove that Rafael-M could fly from STOBAR carriers without and modification) three times more than Egypt and Qatar.

Also India is paying hard cash compared to Egypt where credit was provided.

India would either have zero or 180+ Rafales (similar to India having 300+ Su30MKI) for simple reason that for size of Indian airforce, anything less than 100 does not make any economic sense.

 

[Bratva]

Learn the difference between sticker price and Life cycle cost. Sticker price of Rafael is same as that of F-16V.

And biggest hurdle against Rafale was on MII, and if this deal get scrapped, it would again be because of MII, not price.

All aircraft in this category cost same.







The price per unit would come down because India is eventually planning to have close to 200 Rafaels, and even more if Navy choose it (which it probably would) to fly from IAC-2 (and even IAC-1 if Dassault could prove that Rafael-M could fly from STOBAR carriers without and modification) three times more than Egypt and Qatar.

Also India is paying hard cash compared to Egypt where credit was provided.

India would either have zero or 180+ Rafales (similar to India having 300+ Su30MKI) for simple reason that for size of Indian airforce, anything less than 100 does not make any economic sense.

Considering the inflation, currency flactuations causes cost escalation each year, How much cost will be brought down due to this hugh theoretical purchase in your opinion considering one rafael is costing 290 million ? that it will still fall in the same bracket of 20-22 billion dollar which were the initial price of 126 rafael deal ?

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Considering the inflation, currency flactuations causes cost escalation each year, How much cost will be brought down due to this hugh theoretical purchase in your opinion considering one rafael is costing 290 million ? that it will still fall in the same bracket of 20-22 billion dollar which were the initial price of 126 rafael deal ?

I propose you to analyse the Rafale deal with Egypt and Qatar:
Qatar Deal Helps France Set Export Record
In France, Relief Over Rafale Sale to Egypt
The Qatar deal is quoted € 6.3 Billions, $ 7.1 Billions for 24 Rafale and some unknown weapons and services related to Rafale
The Egypt deal is quoted € 5.2 Billions, $ 5.9 Billions for 24 Rafale 1 Frigate, weapons for Rafale and Frigate and some unknown services.

For the second deal we know that a frigate cost roughly 0.8 Billions and that the weapons is costing araound 1 billion.
So for Rafale and services you only have € 4.1 Billions that is 171 million per copy.

Now if you consider that one Rafale flight hours cost 10000 $ and that you can consider 250h/year you have to add $ 2.5 Millions by year to the fly away cost if the contract is with this kind of service. It's just an example to show that this cost of 171 millions is not the fly away cost. The Rafale fly away cost is around 73 Millions.
So now look at the Qatar deal 6.3 Billions for 24 Rafale make one copy to 262.5 Millions. How is such a difference possible?
I don't know the details but I have seen an article in French saying that we will create a squadron in France with Qatari pilots and technicians using French Rafale to learn how to pilot and maintain the 24 Rafale of the deal. It will be for 36 Pilots and 100 technicians. It certainly cost something.

 

[randomradio]

Who says that ?

Defence Minister Parrikar.

@Taygibay Do you want to correct the gentelman considering what Rafael costed to Egypt and Qatar ?

Tay has made a thread to cure your misconceptions of costs. I suggest reading that.

 

[BON PLAN]

Welcome to PDF

@BON PLAN

++

Prasun Sengupta about Manohar Parrikar:

"At the very least, the MoD now has a RM who is discerning & is willing to take his job seriously & earn his monthly salary & perks, unlike all his predecessors over the past 66 years!"

Hi Armani !!!
Happy to see you again.

I propose you to analyse the Rafale deal with Egypt and Qatar:
Qatar Deal Helps France Set Export Record
In France, Relief Over Rafale Sale to Egypt
The Qatar deal is quoted € 6.3 Billions, $ 7.1 Billions for 24 Rafale and some unknown weapons and services related to Rafale
The Egypt deal is quoted € 5.2 Billions, $ 5.9 Billions for 24 Rafale 1 Frigate, weapons for Rafale and Frigate and some unknown services.

For the second deal we know that a frigate cost roughly 0.8 Billions and that the weapons is costing araound 1 billion.
So for Rafale and services you only have € 4.1 Billions that is 171 million per copy.

Now if you consider that one Rafale flight hours cost 10000 $ and that you can consider 250h/year you have to add $ 2.5 Millions by year to the fly away cost if the contract is with this kind of service. It's just an example to show that this cost of 171 millions is not the fly away cost. The Rafale fly away cost is around 73 Millions.
So now look at the Qatar deal 6.3 Billions for 24 Rafale make one copy to 262.5 Millions. How is such a difference possible?
I don't know the details but I have seen an article in French saying that we will create a squadron in France with Qatari pilots and technicians using French Rafale to learn how to pilot and maintain the 24 Rafale of the deal. It will be for 36 Pilots and 100 technicians. It certainly cost something.

The Qatar weapons package is huge. A lot of Meteor, a lot of Scalp cruise missile, some exocet, a lot of MICA and I think some Hammer AASM missile. This is part of the price.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Indian media quoted a 20 billion dollar deal back in the day

Yes, the India media had done so, the same fools with vested interests who are getting paid to quote $13BN for 36 jets at the present time.

and your own government accepted that humongous cost was the reason they scrapped 126 rafael deal.

Nope, cost was not the issue but the workshare and other structural issues to do with the contract had become unworkable.

From Qatar deal single rafael price comes at 290 Million dollar. Lets take at face value what you say that price will eventually come down to 200 million ignoring the fact inflation will not affect cost escalations in next 10 year . So after initial order of 36. How much 36,72 or 100 jets would cost at 200 million dollar a piece vis a vis the the amount of 36,72 or 100 jets would have cost in initial deal of 126 Rafael jets which we pegged at 20-22 billiond dollar in 2012.

You are making the common mistake of dividing a total procurement cost by the number of units to beleive you have arrived at a unit price. i would have expected a "think tank" would be more informed on these matters so as to not fall for such a trap. The deals for Qatar and Egypt have been of very small quantities and the deals have included all requsite intial start up costs (training, infrastructure, spares and weapons) just like the first off the shelf 36 deal for the IAF will require. But beyond a point the marginal cost begins to drop as you take into account economies of scale, localised production and sunk costs. Furthermore once the Mérignac production line is churning out Rafales at full capacity and an Indian production line is doing the same unit costs will plummet further.

The true cost of a Rafale in 2016 is:

By the way, using Tay's average Rafale cost of 73 million euros per Rafale, this would come to $79 million USD per Rafale at the current ER, even assuming a cost increase of 5% since 2014 (unlikely but let's project worse case) the Rafale's average unit cost would be $83 million USD.

Discounting the M version entirely (as this would play no part in the IAF procurement), the B/C's average unit cost comes to around 71 million Euros or around $78 million USD at today's ER. Again, assuming a 5% cost increase from 2014, an average B/C would cost $82 million USD today.

The Rafale C (single seat AF version) is about $74 million USD at today's ER, assuming a 5% price increase since 2014, this would be around $77 million USD today.


Full break down is as follows:

-Rafale B (two seat AF version)--->$80* million USD (2014)--->$84* million USD (in 2016 assuming a 5%** price increase from 2014 to 2016)
-Rafale C (single seat AF version)---> $74* million USD (2014)---> $77* million USD (in 2016 assuming a 5%** price increase from 2014 to 2016)
-Rafale M (single seat naval version, note no two seat naval version exists as of now) $85* million USD (2014)---> $89* million USD (in 2016 assuming a 5%** price increase from 2014 to 2016)

*all EUR-USD ERs are as of 27/2/2016 and thus subject to some degree of fluctuation depending on the ER base the GoI would be using as part of their ongoing talks with Dassualt

**5% is a "worst case" scenerio but worth factoring in, the unit price may actually have inflated well below this level

Real jet fighter prices : Rafale, F-35 2015-16.

(based on sources provided by our knowledgeable friend @Taygibay )

It is grossly unrepresentative of the Rafale's true cost to start taking account of the support packages that are provided to the induvidual customers as all nations will have different requirements and thus different support packages.

IIRC the sticking point in the collapsed deal was that India wanted to bought jets at a price which were quoted in 2007-2008 ?

Again, this is inaccurate.

 

[sathya]

It set for 2016-17

Nothing can be expected in the next 20 days..

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Prasun K Sengupta gave a reply to a question in his blog

yesterday was the RM's official briefing to the media about the annual defence budget. Your first observation relates to a question asked by a female reporter about the Rafale deal & when will it be signed & how many will be procured & what are the reasons for the delays. In reply, the RM said that it will be unwise to reveal details of on-going negotiations & how exactly they are being conducted.
Interpretation:

• the negotiations involve indirect industrial offsets & also quid pro quo procurements,
• i.e. in return for procuring X number of Rafales, France will also partner with India on producing nuclear attack submarines (SSN).
• Mind you, he did not say or spell all this out on-record, but that's my interpretation based on news-inputs of mine from various players & parties who are involved in the on-going negotiations.

In another comment he further said
"Industrial partnerships will involve SSNs, as I have spelt out above, plus in other related military areas like MGS (truck-mounted 155mm/52-cal howitzers) & 8 x 8 wheeled APC."

Its inline with what i earlier said that we are looking at Barracuda tech for our SSNs and Rafale tech going into AMCA plan.

@Abingdonboy @Ankit Kumar

 

[Ankit Kumar]

Prasun K Sengupta gave a reply to a question in his blog

yesterday was the RM's official briefing to the media about the annual defence budget. Your first observation relates to a question asked by a female reporter about the Rafale deal & when will it be signed & how many will be procurlieingat are the reasons for the delays. In reply, the RM said that it will be unwise to reveal details of on-going negotiations & how exactly they are being conducted.
Interpretation:
the negotiations involve indirect industrial offsets & also quid pro quo procurements,
i.e. in return for procuring X number of Rafales, France will also partner with India on producing nuclear attack submarines (SSN).
Mind you, he did not say or spell all this out on-record, but that's my interpretation based on news-inputs of mine from various players & parties who are involved in the on-going negotiations.
In another comment he further said
"Industrial partnerships will involve SSNs, as I have spelt out above, plus in other related military areas like MGS (truck-mounted 155mm/52-cal howitzers) & 8 x 8 wheeled APC."

Its inline with what i earlier said that we are looking at Barracuda tech for our SSNs and Rafale tech going into AMCA plan.

@Abingdonboy @Ankit Kumar

Does this mean the nuke reactor ? That's the major thing.

But I feel if we are really looking for a foreign partner we should try both Russian and French.

I don't think BAE will be happy sharing Astute secrets.

Personally given a choice I would first stick to procuring more Akulas , not 1 or 2, but upto half dozen. There are 4 boats , simply gathering snow in Russian shipyards, the Russian Navy intends to mordernise these but money....

When we talk about SSNs, we talk about a life of ~35 years easily. The Akulas started rolling out in 1988s , and after 1990s have spend 90% of the time at harbour or shipyards. A refit and they are as good as brand new. Also the thing to note is, the perception that Russia lags west in electronics and sensors is all false, Syria should well tell that as allied forces have themselves admitted western Syria is almost a no fly zone for them.

Comparing the Chinese, their SSNs may have etter weapons but when it comes to sensors and stealth , their Type 095 is expected to catch up the Russian Victor and Sierra class.


All I mean by mentioning all these is that indiginious SSNs are as far away as INS Vishal. And as its our first we should be cautious and do not hasten or tie it up with any other project.

And in the meanwhile we have our hands on the eggs. GOLDEN EGGs and we are currently missing it.

As for Rafale , I have been told that will take some time , not because of any negative issues, but because its an iceberg. We are seeing only 3% of it.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Prasun K Sengupta gave a reply to a question in his blog

yesterday was the RM's official briefing to the media about the annual defence budget. Your first observation relates to a question asked by a female reporter about the Rafale deal & when will it be signed & how many will be procured & what are the reasons for the delays. In reply, the RM said that it will be unwise to reveal details of on-going negotiations & how exactly they are being conducted.
Interpretation:

• the negotiations involve indirect industrial offsets & also quid pro quo procurements,
• i.e. in return for procuring X number of Rafales, France will also partner with India on producing nuclear attack submarines (SSN).
• Mind you, he did not say or spell all this out on-record, but that's my interpretation based on news-inputs of mine from various players & parties who are involved in the on-going negotiations.

In another comment he further said
"Industrial partnerships will involve SSNs, as I have spelt out above, plus in other related military areas like MGS (truck-mounted 155mm/52-cal howitzers) & 8 x 8 wheeled APC."

Its inline with what i earlier said that we are looking at Barracuda tech for our SSNs and Rafale tech going into AMCA plan.

@Abingdonboy @Ankit Kumar

I had said the same a few days back from what I had heard, as @Ankit Kumar rightly points out- what we see'hear is just the tip of the ice berg and there is a lot going on behind the scenes that we don't know. This is why I find it hilarious that all these Indian members are loosing all hope in this deal and calling to go with Boeing (that is making no such "sweetened" offers) or scrap it all together and then there are the Chinese/Pak members mocking India for its inability to get just 36 jets. When the nuances are out in the open and everything is clear the reaction of these members is going to be truly delicious, this is the deal of the decade for India and will dwarf even the MKI's significance at the time it was signed.