Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[BON PLAN]

NO NEWS ABOUT SAUDI ARABIA INTEREST IN RAFALE ?

 

[randomradio]

NO NEWS ABOUT SAUDI ARABIA INTEREST IN RAFALE ?

It was announced only in Jan. Give it a year.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

NO NEWS ABOUT SAUDI ARABIA INTEREST IN RAFALE ?

Le Rafale a-t-il réellement une chance en Arabie Saoudite ? | Le portail des passionnés d'aviation

 

[PARIKRAMA]

2 news items in my ticker for the morning today..

Apparently Yesterday (on Wednesday) a meeting between Indian negotiators and France with DA people took place.. Of course information access is limited but seems the deal modalities are still being worked out ..

Of course New Indian express is publishing a rather clueless article with caption like below.. Most of the information is rather recycled

Article 1:
France Reproposes 'Attractive' Rafale Deal

NEW DELHI: In a bid to break the ongoing impasse on the Rafale fighter jet deal, a high-level delegation of Indian and French officials met in the South Block on Wednesday afternoon. The Price Negotiation Committee formed to work out modalities on the 36 Rafale warplanes has not been able to conclude its task as it has not been able to strike a compromise.

Thirty-six nuclear-capable Rafale jets will be delivered to India in fly-away condition, fitted with weapon systems, such as array radar, high end beyond-visual-range missiles and defensive weapon systems. The deal will also include a support and maintenance package with the manufacturer, Dassault. The Indo-French High Committee on defence cooperation meeting scheduled for March 9, 10 was chaired by the Defence Secretary G Mohan Kumar. Defence industry, procurement and research technology were the areas that were focussed. The status of several defence deals between the two nations was also discussed, including the Rafale jet and Short Range Surface to Air Missile joint development.

“During the meeting, it was believed that French authorities gave a fresh proposal with amendments to make the Rafale deal more attractive. The Indian side is examining the proposal,” an officer said. According to a top Defence Ministry official privy to the development, India is targeting a cost between `65-68,000 crore (8 billion Euros) for 36 Rafale fighter jets. However, on the other side, Dassault, which manufactures the aircraft has quoted a whopping figure of the nearly 90,000 crore (12 billion Euros).

As a compromise was not reached, the deal could not be inked during French President Hollande’s visit to New Delhi last month during Republic Day celebrations. It only dashed the hopes of the IAF, which is struggling to cope with its depleting fleet strength, but also caused embarrassment to New Delhi as no major announcement was made during the meeting of the top political leadership of both countries. In a joint statement on 25 January, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Hollande had hoped to sort out the financial aspects in ‘couple of days’. Even Dassault Aviation had said it expected a complete agreement in four weeks.
France Reproposes 'Attractive' Rafale Deal -The New Indian Express
++++


The second article is from AVIATION WEEK.. Since i dont have a subscription, I am posting the link. will try to find out details

Article 2
aviationweek.com/defense/can-france-india-work-out-fighter-deal

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Dassault is negociating for a contract of 90 Rafale "Make in India"
Google Translate
In french:
Dassault négocie pour un contrat de 90 Rafale "make in India" - L'Usine de l'Aéro

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Dassault is negociating for a contract of 90 Rafale "Make in India"
Google Translate
In french:
Dassault négocie pour un contrat de 90 Rafale "make in India" - L'Usine de l'Aéro

Dassault is negotiating for a contract of 90 Rafale "make in India"
By Hassan Meddah - Updated March 10, 2016, at 5:59 p.m. - PublishedMarch 10, 2016, at 5:44 p.m.

The manufacturer put on an additional 90 Rafale contract with India beyond the initial negotiations for the purchase of 36 aircraft. However, a dampened optimism about the delay of over two years for its business jet, the Falcon 5X following the difficulties encountered by the engine manufacturer Safran.

Two Rafale of the French Air Force - Credits: Pierre Monnier

48 Rafale sold to Egypt and Qatar have boosted the 2015 results Dassault Aviation . The aircraft manufacturer has announced a net profit of 482 million euros, an increase of over 20% for a turnover of 4.2 billion. This corresponds to the delivery of eight Rafale and 55 Falcon business jets.

The group also benefited from the good performance of the group Thales, held at 25%. This participation has boosted its adjusted net income to € 189 million.

Rafale side, the manufacturer is still as enthusiastic. While he believes very close to signing the contract for 36 aircraft in India , CEO Eric Trappier spoke very openly talks for an additional order for 90 additional Rafale.

The industrial base is even already in the study. "Today, there is the price negotiated for the first 36 devices but the principal of our work is to prepare an order for 90 additional aircraft" , says leader . The industrial device associated with such a contract would be well advanced. "We try to make a genuine partnership with Indian industrialists to set up a policy of " Make in India ". Beyond the traditional offsets, Dassault Aviation would settle India with our partners Safran , Thales and part of our subcontractors. We are looking for Indian partners to manufacture in India, " explains the director.

According to him, the data has changed from the conditions of the 2012 agreement which involved 126 aircraft and eventually had never successful. This time, the French aircraft manufacturer is ready to take responsibility for the aircraft produced on Indian soil to the extent that it has the ability to choose its subcontractors.

CONVERT CUSTOMERS MIRAGE 2000 RAFALE

The group says have already doubled production of the Rafale to two per month. For this, it has made industrial investments in its main plants of the Hexagon. The CEO determines the increase in production rates at three months Rafale by the signing of two new contracts for export.

Dassault Aviation emphasized in talks with other countries, primarily the owners of the Mirage 2000."We continued support of some Mirage 2000 fleet worldwide. The first two Rafale export contracts are users Mirage 2000. We hope other camera at this hotel will burst one day, " hopes Eric Trappier.

Discussions are underway with these countries, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the devices are active in Yemen. Discussions are also ongoing with Malaysia, Belgium, Switzerland , Canada ....

DELAYS FALCON 5X "OUR WORST NIGHTMARE"

By cons, this is the soup grimace on the side of business aviation range. In fact, the recovery is not at the rendezvous. The group has won 45 business jet orders in 2015 near the 90 units sold last year."The figure is disappointing. The year was difficult," admits the head of Dassault Aviation. Two phenomena Falcon penalize the manufacturer. First, North American manufacturers like Gulfstream and Bombardier , down when they do not cut prices; secondly, the BRIC countries ( Brazil , Russia, India, China ....) do not record the expected economic growth and slow down their pace of acquisition.But above all, the manufacturer has acknowledged a delay of over two years for his new business jet Falcon 5X.

Involved, Safran difficulties to develop the engine of the machine. "The reality exceeds our worst nightmares. We are in discussions with Safran on compensation to cover our additional costs and help our customers remain loyal to us" , acknowledged Eric Trappier. Result: the manufacturer was forced to freeze production at its plants as in those of its partners.

In this mixed environment, Dassault Aviation takes advantage of its duality between civil and military activities. The production activity increase related to the Rafale export contract dampens declines in business aircraft deliveries. Hazards in civil aviation therefore do not prevent the manufacturer to hire about 250 employees last year.

Hassan Meddah

Comment.. That looks like first tranche surely.. if i consider 2.5-3 years for plant setup and conservatively 16 jets a year its end to end 8 years from say dec 2016 by which decision would be taken..

That means 90 will get inducted by 2023 end implying 126 jets with 36 flyaway too..

Surely more tranches will be ordered..

Crossposting from another thread just for an plan i had discussed..

LCA present line is 8 Jets a year. A second line is getting done to first add 8 jets a year and then scale it up to 16 jets a year. So the plan for MK1A seems to be this
April 2018 -2024 Dec -6 years 8 months - 16 jets a year (line 1 - 8 + line 2 - 8)x 6.67 = 106 Jets
Post this the second line will start producing at 16 jets a year so total productivity will be Line 1 8+ Line 2 16 = 24 Jets a year

This is where either Mark 2 will start or for another 2 years Mark1A more numbers will be crunched. Either way, its now 24 jets a year

Jan 2025- Dec 2030 = 6 full years 24 x 6 = 144 Jets

Thus light category would then become

Mark 1 = 20
Mark 1A = 106 Jets
mark1A or Mark 2 = 144 Jets

So by 2030 end = 144+106+20 = 270 Jets or 16.875 squadron+

Couple with MKI - 312 or 19.5 Squad

So with Hi and lo its 36.375

Even if i consider Jags and Mig29s as combined number of 63+50 odd or 7 squdrons

Thus, its 36.3+7 =43 squads

If i consider Rafales either as 1:1 replacement of the above 7 sqds of medium its 43 sqds plus anyways..

Considering we have enough time till 2030 end and even if MII for any jet happens and starts production by 2019 and we get 11 year + full production then with say 16 jets a year we are looking at 176 jets or 11 sqds

On top off the shelf 36 will be signed so thats 2.25

That means 2030 end its 43.3+11+2.25 = 56.5 squadrons post which 7 squadrons will be retired in a phased manner and will need replacement in next 5-7 years with newer jets.

Thus the medium category has a need of 176+36+112= 324+ jets

Looking at timeline upto 2030 and further 5 years to retire 5-7 squads, i am betting this category to be Rafales as of now.. Incase AMCA comes in some numbers of the same will be then used to do 1:1 replacement of Jags and Mig29s.

This is all without FGFA.. I do have a feeling FGFA will be limited and may be used to replace more of MKIs at a later stage owing to cost part of maintaining a 5th gen jet especially since India plans for 2 such jets (AMCA and FGFA)

@Abingdonboy

Now look again..

By 2023 end its 90 MII and 36 flyaway

Assuming plant runs for another 7 years till 2030 and we add 16x7= 112 jets

So total we get is 112+126=238 jets

This is 14.875 squads so now the true picture is

Lo LCA variants - 270 Jets
Hi MKI - 312
Rafale 238
---------------------
820 Jets or 51.25 squadrons

On top i am expecting out of 10 odd sqds of Mig29s+M2ks and Jags at least 7 sqds will be available and those 7 will retire by max 2035.

so 51.25+7=58.25 sqds..

Eventually these 7 sqds to be replaced by either rafales or a combination of Rafales and AMCA ..

Thus potential for Rafales in IAF or medium bird is 238+112 = 350 Jets

Add IN another 150 jets for carriers and shore based needs, you are looking at 500 Rafales/Medium category Jets for India..

On top IN will field further equal number of AMCA jets or 150+ in 5th Gen post Rafale as its clearly looking at 550-600 jet strength by 2050 and will be South East Asia's 2nd most powerful AF.

And all this without considering FGFA as i mentioned earlier.

If we follow simple rules, we end up with huge sq strength.. just execution is the key...

 

[Abingdonboy]

"We have conveyed our concerns to the government. Government is seized of this problem and the reason why the government signed the 36 aircraft (Rafale) on G2G basis is because of urgency that they felt because of the depletion in squadron numbers," Dhanoa, a Kargil war veteran said.

Asked if there is a requirement for more Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) type aircraft besides the 36 Rafales, he said yes.

"There are various avenues that are being explored. There is a requirement for us to buy a MMRCA class aircraft more than the 36 numbers that we have signed. Which platform may come in, that is something between us and the government. We (both) will have to take a call," he said.


Deputy Chief of the IAF Air Marshal R K S Bhadauria said that a decision on more aircraft will be take only after the conclusion of the contract for 36 Rafale fighter jets.

Asked how many more MMRCA type aircraft is the IAF looking at, Bhadauria said he would not like to go into numbers.

"I am not going into numbers. MMRCA, you are aware of total numbers (126 fighters). We are getting 36 out of that. So there is a leftover there and we will take a rather holistic view of overall numbers," he said.

The IAF officers said that the Rafale will significantly enhance the capability of the IAF. Talking about the low serviceability of the Su-30, the IAF vice chief Dhanoa said that it is an issue.

"It is being monitored at the highest level in Ministry of Defence. We want to sign the long term material contract so as to have a quick turnaround," he said.

"I have to put more hi-tech platform against it. The MMRCA is designed in such a way that we need to offset this capability. When does war, conflict or adventure (Kargil) take place? It takes place when he has a doubt in your deterrence. If you demonstrate your deterrence, we should have peace because he will know that he will be hit very badly," he said.

Of the 120, 100 of them will come with 43 improvements over the existing Tejas, currently being test-flown by the IAF for various parameters and slated for final operation clearance in March.

The first upgraded Tejas is scheduled to be produced in 2018 and the target is to complete the requirement by 2022-2023.

There are 260 Soviet-era single-engine MiG-21 and MiG-27 jets in the IAF fleet. The Air Force needs at least 400 additional jets over the next 10 years.

Do not have the numbers to fully fight two-front war: IAF - The Economic Times


@PARIKRAMA @Taygibay @Picdelamirand-oil 126 Rafales assured- unless Dassualt are collosally incompetent, beyond this figure is pure speculation but it is clear that by 2023 120 LCA (MK.1 and MK.1A) will be in service with an addtional 40-60 MKIs. At most, between 2023 and 2025 (when the IAF has to have 42 SQNs at minimum) another 60 LCA can be added but the possibility of more MKIs is nil past 2023 when the Nasik plant starts to re-tool for the FGFA. So there is still an outstanding 200 odd jet requirement aka......Rafale.

This is all based on what the IAF itself is saying offically.

Throw in the IN's (80 or so by 2027 and another 60 for every new AC until the N-AMCA is ready) requirements and this is the deal.

 

[Perpendicular]

One more time Dassault is in final phase of negotiations with India.

Dassault Says It's Close to Rafale Deal With India

 

[Masterhunter]

Dassault is negotiating for a contract of 90 Rafale "make in India"
By Hassan Meddah - Updated March 10, 2016, at 5:59 p.m. - PublishedMarch 10, 2016, at 5:44 p.m.

The manufacturer put on an additional 90 Rafale contract with India beyond the initial negotiations for the purchase of 36 aircraft. However, a dampened optimism about the delay of over two years for its business jet, the Falcon 5X following the difficulties encountered by the engine manufacturer Safran.

Two Rafale of the French Air Force - Credits: Pierre Monnier

48 Rafale sold to Egypt and Qatar have boosted the 2015 results Dassault Aviation . The aircraft manufacturer has announced a net profit of 482 million euros, an increase of over 20% for a turnover of 4.2 billion. This corresponds to the delivery of eight Rafale and 55 Falcon business jets.

The group also benefited from the good performance of the group Thales, held at 25%. This participation has boosted its adjusted net income to € 189 million.

Rafale side, the manufacturer is still as enthusiastic. While he believes very close to signing the contract for 36 aircraft in India , CEO Eric Trappier spoke very openly talks for an additional order for 90 additional Rafale.

The industrial base is even already in the study. "Today, there is the price negotiated for the first 36 devices but the principal of our work is to prepare an order for 90 additional aircraft" , says leader . The industrial device associated with such a contract would be well advanced. "We try to make a genuine partnership with Indian industrialists to set up a policy of " Make in India ". Beyond the traditional offsets, Dassault Aviation would settle India with our partners Safran , Thales and part of our subcontractors. We are looking for Indian partners to manufacture in India, " explains the director.

According to him, the data has changed from the conditions of the 2012 agreement which involved 126 aircraft and eventually had never successful. This time, the French aircraft manufacturer is ready to take responsibility for the aircraft produced on Indian soil to the extent that it has the ability to choose its subcontractors.

CONVERT CUSTOMERS MIRAGE 2000 RAFALE

The group says have already doubled production of the Rafale to two per month. For this, it has made industrial investments in its main plants of the Hexagon. The CEO determines the increase in production rates at three months Rafale by the signing of two new contracts for export.

Dassault Aviation emphasized in talks with other countries, primarily the owners of the Mirage 2000."We continued support of some Mirage 2000 fleet worldwide. The first two Rafale export contracts are users Mirage 2000. We hope other camera at this hotel will burst one day, " hopes Eric Trappier.

Discussions are underway with these countries, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the devices are active in Yemen. Discussions are also ongoing with Malaysia, Belgium, Switzerland , Canada ....

DELAYS FALCON 5X "OUR WORST NIGHTMARE"

By cons, this is the soup grimace on the side of business aviation range. In fact, the recovery is not at the rendezvous. The group has won 45 business jet orders in 2015 near the 90 units sold last year."The figure is disappointing. The year was difficult," admits the head of Dassault Aviation. Two phenomena Falcon penalize the manufacturer. First, North American manufacturers like Gulfstream and Bombardier , down when they do not cut prices; secondly, the BRIC countries ( Brazil , Russia, India, China ....) do not record the expected economic growth and slow down their pace of acquisition.But above all, the manufacturer has acknowledged a delay of over two years for his new business jet Falcon 5X.

Involved, Safran difficulties to develop the engine of the machine. "The reality exceeds our worst nightmares. We are in discussions with Safran on compensation to cover our additional costs and help our customers remain loyal to us" , acknowledged Eric Trappier. Result: the manufacturer was forced to freeze production at its plants as in those of its partners.

In this mixed environment, Dassault Aviation takes advantage of its duality between civil and military activities. The production activity increase related to the Rafale export contract dampens declines in business aircraft deliveries. Hazards in civil aviation therefore do not prevent the manufacturer to hire about 250 employees last year.

Hassan Meddah

Comment.. That looks like first tranche surely.. if i consider 2.5-3 years for plant setup and conservatively 16 jets a year its end to end 8 years from say dec 2016 by which decision would be taken..

That means 90 will get inducted by 2023 end implying 126 jets with 36 flyaway too..

Surely more tranches will be ordered..

Crossposting from another thread just for an plan i had discussed..


@Abingdonboy

Now look again..

By 2023 end its 90 MII and 36 flyaway

Assuming plant runs for another 7 years till 2030 and we add 16x7= 112 jets

So total we get is 112+126=238 jets

This is 14.875 squads so now the true picture is

Lo LCA variants - 270 Jets
Hi MKI - 312
Rafale 238
---------------------
820 Jets or 51.25 squadrons

On top i am expecting out of 10 odd sqds of Mig29s+M2ks and Jags at least 7 sqds will be available and those 7 will retire by max 2035.

so 51.25+7=58.25 sqds..

Eventually these 7 sqds to be replaced by either rafales or a combination of Rafales and AMCA ..

Thus potential for Rafales in IAF or medium bird is 238+112 = 350 Jets

Add IN another 150 jets for carriers and shore based needs, you are looking at 500 Rafales/Medium category Jets for India..

On top IN will field further equal number of AMCA jets or 150+ in 5th Gen post Rafale as its clearly looking at 550-600 jet strength by 2050 and will be South East Asia's 2nd most powerful AF.

And all this without considering FGFA as i mentioned earlier.

If we follow simple rules, we end up with huge sq strength.. just execution is the key...

Nice break up man...
Just one observation...
IAF don't have sqn of 16 aircrafts..so sqn number is misleading...
IAF will make sqn of either 18 or 20 aircrafts..

So 820 planes will make about... 41 sqn min to 45.5 max... So we can safely assume IAF will have their required strength if they get 820 planes by 2030... And all will be Gen 4+

 

[randomradio]

Now look again..

By 2023 end its 90 MII and 36 flyaway

Assuming plant runs for another 7 years till 2030 and we add 16x7= 112 jets

So total we get is 112+126=238 jets

You will have to combine that with the IN requirement also. But the numbers will exceed even that due to exports.

The Rafale program will be very, very big. Much bigger than the MKI program.

This is 14.875 squads so now the true picture is

Lo LCA variants - 270 Jets
Hi MKI - 312
Rafale 238
---------------------
820 Jets or 51.25 squadrons

Don't get fooled by the IAF. They said they will accept 16 jets per squadron for the sake of playing politics. Their requirement is 21 per squadron for Rafale because it will be a mix of single and double seat, they won't sacrifice on that. And a number of jets will be transferred to TACDE, ASTE etc.

It's 20 per squadron for MKI.

but the possibility of more MKIs is nil past 2023 when the Nasik plant starts to re-tool for the FGFA.

The Nasik plant will stop manufacturing MKIs in 2019. Any additional orders will be made in Russia and come in as CKDs.

The removal of HAL from Rafale has been very beneficial for the LCA program.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Credit to Rafale Addict

French Air Force at Al Dhafra Air Base

Next set of pics Credit to Alpha Rafale

So 820 planes will make about... 41 sqn min to 45.5 max... So we can safely assume IAF will have their required strength if they get 820 planes by 2030... And all will be Gen 4+

They said they will accept 16 jets per squadron for the sake of playing politics. Their requirement is 21 per squadron for Rafale because it will be a mix of single and double seat, they won't sacrifice on that. And a number of jets will be transferred to TACDE, DOT&E etc.

It's 20 per squadron for MKI.

You both may be correct .. In any case beyond 820 jets of LCA, MKI and Rafale/Medium , we have legacy fighters around 63+50+50 ish or close to 163+ which will be phased out and retired beyond 2030 timeframe most probably by 2035 max

So net total number of Jets purely in IAF will be closer to 983 jets

If i consider squadron strength and go by logic of say 20 and 21 then

Lo is 270 /20 per squad = 13.5 sqd
Hi MKI 312 /20 per sqd = 15.6 sqd
Medium - Rafales/others/AMCA = 238 / 21 per sqd = 11.33
and old jets approx 163+ /20 per sqd = 8.15 sqd
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
so total = 13.5+15.6+11.33+8.15 = 48.58 sqds with much higher number of jets per sqd..

Of course legacy fighters of 8 sqds has to be replaced 1:1 post 2030 timeline by Rafale/AMCA/Medium Jets

This is excluding Indian Navy

You will have to combine that with the IN requirement also. But the numbers will exceed even that due to exports.

The Rafale program will be very, very big. Much bigger than the MKI program.

I fully agree and that is why i said humongous potential..

Imagine those 8+ legacy squads of Mig29+jags+m2k all being phased out by a medium jet thats another 160+ fighters..
Assuming say 112 is Rafales and 50 odd from AMCA plan, Rafales in IAF alone can sour to to 350 (238+112) or even more if its fully replaced by Rafales only.

Even conservatively if i put IN need of 150+ Rafales (2 ACC of IAC2 will be 108 jets alone of course may be beyond 2030-2035 types timeline), the grand total potential is 500+ jets over next 2-2.5 decades..

Its surely going to eclipse MKI program..

But as i said execution is the key here..

IN all probability the combined fleet of IN +IAF should be comprising of approx 1500-1600 jets of 4.5th Gen and above in next 2-3 decades..

Interesting would be the asset potential of IN which i see to be superior quality and better in terms of ops cost.. (limited lo tier and no heavy tier.. all max medium tier).

That number at an average of 20 per sqd for approximation would form around 70-80 sqds.. Thats much more than what we need for a two front challenge... So the plan is good and execution again will be the key driver here

 

[Didact]

Credit to Rafale Addict

French Air Force at Al Dhafra Air Base

Next set of pics Credit to Alpha Rafale

You both may be correct .. In any case beyond 820 jets of LCA, MKI and Rafale/Medium , we have legacy fighters around 63+50+50 ish or close to 163+ which will be phased out and retired beyond 2030 timeframe most probably by 2035 max

So net total number of Jets purely in IAF will be closer to 983 jets

If i consider squadron strength and go by logic of say 20 and 21 then

Lo is 270 /20 per squad = 13.5 sqd
Hi MKI 312 /20 per sqd = 15.6 sqd
Medium - Rafales/others/AMCA = 238 / 21 per sqd = 11.33
and old jets approx 163+ /20 per sqd = 8.15 sqd
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
so total = 13.5+15.6+11.33+8.15 = 48.58 sqds with much higher number of jets per sqd..

Of course legacy fighters of * sqds has to be replaced 1:1 post 2030 timeline by Rafale/AMCA/Medium Jets

This is excluding Indian Navy



I fully agree and that is why i said humongous potential..

Imagine those 8+ legacy squads of Mig29+jags+m2k all being phased out by a medium jet thats another 160+ fighters..
Assuming say 112 is Rafales and 50 odd from AMCA plan, Rafales in IAF alone can sour to to 350 (238+112) or even more if its fully replaced by Rafales only.

Even conservatively if i put IN need of 150+ Rafales (2 ACC of IAC2 will be 108 jets alone of course may be beyond 2030-2035 types timeline), the grand total potential is 500+ jets over next 2-2.5 decades..

Its surely going to eclipse MKI program..

But as i said execution is the key here..

The DM has categorically stated that the current negotiations with Dassault are centered exclusively on the 36 Rafales, and by extension, this is where the price negotiations is stuck. Contrary to what newspapers are reporting (rumor mongering), there has been almost no movement on the price front. Everything hinges on the price quoted for the 36. There have been no formal negotiations on the 90 MMRCA requirement with Dassault aviation. The Indian side has, right from the DM to the Defense secretaries have decided to move ahead with other negotiations only once, and if, this deal for 36 is wrapped up. That may be an instruction from the PMO itself.

What the French are trying to do is to inject the 90+ whatever requirements the IAF+IN have, in a bid to create the impression that Rs. 90,000 crore is a justifiable price tag for the 36; they are refusing to reduce the asking price. The MOD has refused to concede to this argument, which is why you're seeing almost all articles now referring to sources in DA, and not the MOD. The MOD has gone dead silent.

I had once referred to the three cliques in the MOD wrt. the Rafale. Well, not even the clique supportive of the rafale is willing to justify the Rs. 90,000 crore price tag. No bureaucrat is going to accept that price tag. That would be equivalent to committing harakiri. The government would rather bite the bullet of loss of respect with a collapsed deal, than risk a thermonuclear CAG around 2018-19.

 

[SUDIP]

around 63+50+50 ish or close to 163+

You always getting it wrong. It should be :

63-67: (3 sq of MIG-29 full 20 ac/sq)

49: (2 sq of mirage2000, previously 3 sq but later merged into 2 at gwalior, again more than 20 ac/sq)

123: (6 sq of Jaguar, now 117, we lost 6 from 2005 -2016, again almost 20ac/sq. Do you know we have procured+produced 158 jaguars from UK and in India sience 1979. First aircraft came in 1979, direct from Bae plant. Thanks to IAF abysmal maintenance and economic slowdown we have lost 35 ac in 25 yr (1980-2005) almost more than 1 ac per yr. If maintained properly during 90s, It wud have been an awesome fighting force for the western border.)

So total approx 230 ac or 11 sq, an awsome inventory, all facing pakistani border (except m-2000 at gwalior) with much required punch for our pakistani brother. These r the main reason, why IAF even do't care abt latest F-16s.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

@SUDIP Thanks for pointing that

Nice so its beyond 8+ sqds and is 11 sqd +
So
Lo is 270 /20 per squad = 13.5 sqd
Hi MKI 312 /20 per sqd = 15.6 sqd
Medium - Rafales/others/AMCA = 238 / 21 per sqd = 11.33
and old jets approx 230 /20 per sqd = 11.5 sqd
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
so total = 13.5+15.6+11.33+11.5 = 51.93 sqds with much higher number of jets per sqd..

So another 11.5 sqd need to be replaced by either rafales or AMCA or a combination

 

[randomradio]

I fully agree and that is why i said humongous potential..

Imagine those 8+ legacy squads of Mig29+jags+m2k all being phased out by a medium jet thats another 160+ fighters..

They will all be replaced by AMCA. Rafale is for the current requirement of 450-475 jets.

The IAF cannot buy 300+ Rafales by themselves. They can't afford it because the program will clash with the AMCA and FGFA. At the very best, I see IAF's requirement of 180+ Rafales being made in India. At 20 a year, Dassault will take at least 12 or 13 years to deliver them all to the IAF. So that's about 2028 at best, maybe 2029. In the meantime, they will have to rely on a cheaper aircraft like the second MMRCA.

But you can expect the IN to at least induct half the IAF's numbers by that time. It is the combined IAF+IN order that makes the Rafale really big. Along with its export potential. It far surpasses the MKI program.

Out of all these aircraft, MKI, Rafale, LCA, and second MMRCA, only the MKI and Rafale are sanction-proof. All others can be sanctioned one way or another.

Basically, the numbers confirmed by the govt for IAF's MII are
Rafale - 90
LCA - 126
MMRCA - 90

So numbers can go anywhere in the future. And all these can have options for 50% more with LSA being the dark horse.

Defence News, India to make the most modern fighter plane in the country :: Parrikar
The 'most modern aircraft' reference is directed at the LSA.

If, and it's a big if, the LSA works out, it will swallow up all the other programs as a whole. Rafales may get capped at 90 or 126 along with LCA at 126 and the second MMRCA may get canceled outright.