Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Cross posting Picdel's post from IDF:
Today an interview of Trappier, CEO of Dassault where he said there is just a little detail to conclude: the price. But he said that smiling and also he said that Dassault is preparing for the make in India a proposal for 90 Rafale (as first step)

@Picdelamirand-oil We were expecting this announcement after Dassault was sure of the contract signature for the first 36. So does that mean we have the 36 in the bag now?

Not so sure without a price.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Cross posting from IDF

CNL-PN-AA said:

The date of signature was agreed two weeks ago . The price for the only 36 Rafales has already been set. The discussions about the price concern modifications asked by India and maintenance costs.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Cross posting Picdel's post from IDF:
Today an interview of Trappier, CEO of Dassault where he said there is just a little detail to conclude: the price. But he said that smiling and also he said that Dassault is preparing for the make in India a proposal for 90 Rafale (as first step)

@Picdelamirand-oil We were expecting this announcement after Dassault was sure of the contract signature for the first 36. So does that mean we have the 36 in the bag now?

Cross posting from IDF

CNL-PN-AA said:
The date of signature was agreed two weeks ago . The price for the only 36 Rafales has already been set. The discussions about the price concern modifications asked by India and maintenance costs.

Nice, then this is inline with what i have said before.. when i gave a reply to @randomradio on Feb 15th

Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 125

So at least my source is pointing in the right direction

I am still a bit concerned with the numbers bit..
You see MMRCA 2.0 as the term coined by media was 90 by deducing 126-36=90

My source on the other hand talked about 189-36-18= 135 under MII Phase 1 IAF + a lot more under Phase 2
Also source indicated a need of 54 jets for IAC2 and another equal number for IN fleet implying 100+
In short, what i want to point is, Source talked about equaling 265-285 French AF numbers mix of Rafales (including Rafale Ms) based on 225+new tranche to be ordered

So is this talk of 90 hinting a structure same as say Su30 MKI procurement where we keep ordering in tranches every 3-4 years...

Eventually if we are going for customized stuff, it makes logic to have a large fleet..

If we are really talking about 90 now under MII in phase 1, @randomradio We might not see high rate of production as we had discussed before..

In such a case, as you have pointed out the fighter needs in numbers is close to 700, it makes sense to either ramp up our LCA numbers much above 16/year which is difficult, so there can be a second MII line owing to this mismatch.. Not sure who will come out as winner but of course, the need is becoming a bit transparent slowly..

 

[randomradio]

If we are really talking about 90 now under MII in phase 1, @randomradio We might not see high rate of production as we had discussed before..

The first tranche was always 90. You are forgetting IN and export requirement. Production numbers will be ramped up based on the navy and export orders.

The MMRCA production requirement was 20 per year for 108 jets. So that will be minimum if neither IN nor export orders are available. IAF will buy 180.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

The first tranche was always 90. You are forgetting IN and export requirement. Production numbers will be ramped up based on the navy and export orders.

The MMRCA production requirement was 20 per year for 108 jets. So that will be minimum if neither IN nor export orders are available. IAF will buy 180.

Cool in that sense if its 20/jet for only domestic consumption same as MMRCA then the case is as follows..

Assuming say 2.5-3 years for line setup
and 5 years say for completing these 90 orders (ideally it will be 4.5 years but rounding for benefit)
So, in approx 8 years we will get 90
counting from Jan 2017, 8 years is upto Dec 2024.

So if i add another 3 years of production in that till 2017 its 60 more.. based on assumption that a second tranche is being ordered which is made up of IAF and IN needs which keeps the line going for 5-6 more years till 2030 (120 jets for 6 years).

Assuming we also order 18 follow on from merignac too..

Thus all total is around

36+ 18 = 54 from Merignac
90+60 = 150 from India
----------------------------------
Total = 204 till 2027 (and 264 till 2030 end.)

We also talked about LCA 106 + 40 MKI = 146

Thus, till 2027 its 204+146 = 350 jets right?

Asuming LCA MK1A production is increased by 3 more years beyond 2024 so 16x3 = 48 then the total jets available till 2027 (new) is 350+48 = 398

So based on earlier figure of 700 which you had pointed, we are meeting just 56% and shortfall is 302 jets.

In that case, DM MP will be able to justify another line of jet..

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

When I look at Trappier interview he seems surpised by the question about the number and he have to answer something but he doesn't want to. So he refer to MMRCA to give an order of magnetude. It seems also that 100% will not be build in India at the begining but it seems achieviable to Trappier this 100% at the end of the 90. And then India can ask for more.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

When I look at Trappier interview he seems surpised by the question about the number and he have to answer something but he doesn't want to. So he refer to MMRCA to give an order of magnetude. It seems also that 100% will not be build in India at the begining but it seems achieviable to Trappier this 100% at the end of the 90. And then India can ask for more.

By 100 percent do you mean to say from beginning say from kits assembly to perhaps from raw materials directly something which we have achieved in MKIs a similar kind of reach by end of 90.. In that case dont you think 90 gives a very limited time frame for kind of localisation.. I mean quoting say high 60s - 70s is still understandable but 100% at the end of 90 requires a good time period...

And judging by MMRCA speed of production of say 20 jets a year it gives a timeline of 8 years (inclusive of line setup) approximation...

A news article on Indian Defense Review
++
Rafale and F/A-18 - The Right Way Forward
Sachin A
IssueNet Edition| Date : 24 Feb , 2016

F/A-18 and Rafale

The MMRCA deal and its subsequent avatar in the form of an off-the-shelf purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets have been making news for a long time now. Of late, there have been a lot of contradicting statements by the defence minister, the Air Force chief, representatives of Dassault – the makers of the much talked about fighter, and other stakeholders about the outcome of the price negotiations. But, even after all this hype, one would wonder whether the government is doing the right thing by opting for the 36 fighters (2 squadrons) of the seemingly exorbitantly expensive Rafale, with a possible additional order for 18 fighters (1 Squadron).

The high cost doesn’t mean that the Rafale is a bad choice. It is indeed a good choice going by the technical evaluation that the IAF had conducted. One parameter that sets the Rafale apart from other contemporary fighters is its high combat radius (> 1800 Kms). This would mean that the Rafale can be used as a long-range strike fighter which can carry its payload deep into hostile territory, a capability which can be matched by very few fighter jets worldwide, if any.

Even if the Rafale deal goes through and assuming that the defence ministry would exercise the add-on clause for the additional 18 fighters, the fact is that the purchase would do little to arrest the worrying shortfall in the IAF’s squadron numbers, not to mention that the original MMRCA requirement was for 126 fighters with a possible option clause for 60 plus additional aircraft.

There have been demands from various quarters that the IAF should consider buying more LCAs than what is being planned for, to meet the MMRCA requirement. But, such demands cannot be justified from a strategic and economic perspective, since buying more fighters in the light combat category like the LCAs is meaningless, considering the fact that the MMRCA program was for a Medium combat fighter – the Rafale being one. The LCA is not capable enough to evade the enemy’s air defence network and strike deep inside hostile territory. It is also not suited for the deep strike role because of its limited payload capacity. Although such rules may be overlooked at in times of war, they shouldn’t be ignored when making procurement decisions.

That leaves the IAF with a few options to fill in the gaps which the trimmed Rafale deal would create in its squadron strength – the Lockheed Martin F-16, the Eurofighter Typhoon (which also passed the IAF’s MMRCA technical evaluations), the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet, the Mig-35 and the Saab JAS 39 Gripen. Of these, only Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Saab have offered to assemble their respective fighters in India and thus will be favoured in case the defence ministry decides to produce fighters to meet the MMRCA requirement. The Gripen is a good fighter, albeit with little combat experience. The F-16 and the F/A-18 are proven fighter jets with a good enough track records.

The F-16 is a fighter which started flying in the late 1970s.It has undergone various upgrade programs during its entire operational history with the U.S. Air Force. It is a known fact that the fighter is about to reach the end of its evolution cycle as a platform and that no further upgrades to it would be made in the future, other than the ongoing upgrade programs. However, the USAF might opt for further upgrades in the form of mere lifecycle extensions, if the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is not ready on time for mass production. This would mean that the F-16 would be a bad choice for India. Also, it is not a good idea to procure the same fighter which Pakistan already has in its inventory.

Though this leaves the IAF with only the F/A-18 Super Hornet as a choice, there are other important reasons why choosing the F/A-18s should be the right way forward.

Firstly, there are arguments that the Super Hornet is basically an upgraded version of the older McDonnell Douglas F/A-18 Hornet. Factually this is not entirely true, since the Super Hornet is a completely redesigned new fighter with some commonality with the older F/A-18. The Super Hornet started flying in the mid-90s and has since been flying with multiple Air forces and Navies around the world. The unit cost of the F/A-18 Super Hornet will also be much lesser than the Rafales.

India had been working on its Kaveri engine program, which has now been dubbed as a failure.

The second and the most important reason are the engines. Boeing has offered to setup an entire assembly line for the F/A-18s in India. And if this means that even the engines for the F/A-18s will be manufactured in India, which will be a very good value proposition. This is because the General Electric F-414 engines that are used by the F/A-18 Super Hornets will also power the Tejas Mk2 which is now under development. If the engines are made in India, this will benefit both the Super Hornets and the LCA program and there will also be the added benefit of availability of life cycle support within India for the engines for both the fighters. This would mean huge cost savings, since a single fighter jet uses 3.5 engines over its lifetime on an average. Assuming that the Indian Air Force would decide to procure around 100 twin-engined F/A-18s and that both the IAF and the Navy will eventually buy around 120 plus single-engined LCA Mk2 fighters, the demand will be for a minimum of 1000 GE F-414 jet engines throughout the lifetime of both the fighters – providing economies of scale.

Thirdly, under the Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI), which is the name of the framework for Indo-US defence co-operation, joint development of a jet engine is also being discussed. That the U.S has reportedly offered to rewrite its laws so that India could gain access to classified technical information related to the GE F414 jet engines, is a lucrative offer which cannot be ignored. There will be consequences of allying with the U.S in such a way and those will have to be factored in by New Delhi.

Only a few countries have been successful in developing jet engines for their fighter aircraft. China, for instance, hasn’t been able to master the jet engine technology even after pumping in billions of Yuans into its engine R&D programs. General Electric has also been planning on a project for up rating it’s F-414 engines, so that its peak thrust with afterburners is increased from 98 KNs to 110 KNs.

Apparently, GE is keen to work with the DRDO in this project, which would mean that India can use these up rated engines for powering it’s futuristic Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). If such a co-operation fructifies, the F/A-18s, LCA Mk2 and the AMCA programs will mutually benefit from each other because of engine commonality. The Indian Navy and the Air Force will have a combined requirement of around 250 or more twin-engined AMCAs. This would mean an additional requirement of more than 1500 F-414 engines.

According to the soon-to-be-released Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP – 2016), the defence ministry will be choosing an Indian private company as the strategic development partner for aero engines. The best way for this company to take off will be to join this proposed DRDO-General Electric R&D project, so that it gains enough technical expertise for supporting India’s future military and civilian aircraft engine programs.

If the Indian Air Force makes the right procurement decisions, it would help in increasing its fighter squadron numbers to the sanctioned level of 42. A far-sighted decision should be one which benefits India’s defence industry in the long run. The Ministry of Defence will have to be prudent enough while implementing its policies and decisions. This will ensure that India’s indigenous defence industry gets a much needed shot in the arm.

Rafale and F/A-18 – The Right Way Forward » Indian Defence Review

 

[randomradio]

Cool in that sense if its 20/jet for only domestic consumption same as MMRCA then the case is as follows..

Assuming say 2.5-3 years for line setup
and 5 years say for completing these 90 orders (ideally it will be 4.5 years but rounding for benefit)
So, in approx 8 years we will get 90
counting from Jan 2017, 8 years is upto Dec 2024.

So if i add another 3 years of production in that till 2017 its 60 more.. based on assumption that a second tranche is being ordered which is made up of IAF and IN needs which keeps the line going for 5-6 more years till 2030 (120 jets for 6 years).

Assuming we also order 18 follow on from merignac too..

Thus all total is around

36+ 18 = 54 from Merignac
90+60 = 150 from India
----------------------------------
Total = 204 till 2027 (and 264 till 2030 end.)

We also talked about LCA 106 + 40 MKI = 146

Thus, till 2027 its 204+146 = 350 jets right?

Asuming LCA MK1A production is increased by 3 more years beyond 2024 so 16x3 = 48 then the total jets available till 2027 (new) is 350+48 = 398

So based on earlier figure of 700 which you had pointed, we are meeting just 56% and shortfall is 302 jets.

In that case, DM MP will be able to justify another line of jet..

The numbers are not written in stone. Like Picdel says, these are MMRCA estimates. In case there is a delay with AMCA or FGFA, the numbers will obviously rise. Also, IAF squadrons limit will also increase. And so will IN's squadron requirements.

The minimum of 90 aircraft is meant to keep the production line viable in India. The numbers will go far beyond 90 even without IN orders.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

India plans to announce a tender for the purchase of 54 new aircraft carrier and aircraft thereto

bmpd
February 25th, 1:07
According to French newsletter « TTU » in the material « the Porte-Avions indien:? The Rafale Marine vs the Mig 29K », the NDTV television channel confirmed that a high-level visit of the French delegation to India January 29, 2016 to meet with representatives of the Staff of the Indian Navy. The purpose of the visit was to offer Indians deck version fighter Dassault Rafale - Rafale M. Aircraft Design image carrier Vishal (a) indiandefence.com





India plans to announce a tender for the purchase of [meaning the design of foreign aid and construction on Indian shipyards] fourth aircraft carrier with a displacement of 65,000 tons, 300 meters long and 70 meters wide (as bulletin notes, almost British aircraft carrier Prince of Wales ). New Delhi seems to be leaning in favor of the nuclear power plant, which is considered less costly for long term use, as India looks to save a new aircraft carrier (which became known as Vishal ) for over 50 years.

The composition of the wing Vishal will be one of the most complex elements of the tender as the number of planes required reaches 54 units. Indian Ministry of Defence expects to achieve unification in the supply of spare parts for Air Force and Navy aircraft.

Thus, among the planes, which will be assessed only Rafale and the MiG-29, which the MiG-29K modifications already make up a wing of an aircraft carrier Vikrant , meet this condition.

Индия планирует объявить тендер на закупку нового авианосца и 54 самолетов к нему - bmpd

Original material

Porte-avions indien : Rafale Marine vs Mig 29K ? - TTU lettre d’information
Indian aircraft carrier: Rafale vs Mig 29K?

The NDTV television network confirmed that a high-level French delegation had met on January 29 the General Staff of the Indian Navy in order to propose the navy Rafale.

India plans to take to open a tender to acquire a fourth aircraft carrier of 65,000 tons, 300 m long and 70 m wide (or almost the characteristics of the "Prince of Wales"). New Delhi seems seduced by the nuclear-powered considered less costly in the long cycles of use, since it hopes to keep this new building, already dubbed "Vishal", almost fifty years.

The multirole air component of "Vishal" would be one of the critical points of this competition, and the amount of equipment required would be 54 copies. The Indian MoD seek more homogenizing logistics and spare parts between the planes of the Air Force and in the Navy. Now, among other aircraft that would be evaluated, only the Rafale, if acquired by the Indian Air Force, and the Mig 29, deployed in its navalized K version on the aircraft carrier "Vikrant" benefit from this asset.



++++++++
Comments:

• Bmpd quotes that serious contender is only Rafale M & Mig29K with the emphasis on to achieve unification in supply of spare parts for IAF and IN aircraft....
• It would be interesting if India asks for assistance from French majors for INS Vishal
• The usage of design of foreign aid and construction on Indian yards hints for a strategic consultancy role and may be co-designing especially around nuclear reactor position.
• Now only few companies across the world has such designing experience and among them the one with whom we have good strong relationship outside USA & Russia is France's DCNS

Since we have a long tie up with DCNS and judging by DCNS experience, i quote the following from their website
Source: Aircraft carriers | DCNS Group
Quote
The aircraft carrier is the largest type of warship, and is considered to be an airbase in its own right and veritable floating city. It provides autonomous air support that is crucial to the success of all types of naval or land operations.

It is one of the most important elements of a fleet and the aircraft carrier is escorted by other types of vessels and submarines (frigates, mine hunters, nuclear attack submarines, replenishment oilers, etc.). The aircraft carrier ensures the protection of this fleet.

DCNS has, in particular, designed and built the Charles de Gaulle nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. DCNS now ensures its maintenance.

DEAC® aircraft carrier
The aircraft carrier deploys an on-board aircraft group (up to 40 aircraft). DEAC® (DCNS Evolved AirCraft) is equipped with the latest generation of combat systems. Its advanced conventional propulsion system allows the optimization of replenishment frequency and ensures a permanent presence at sea within an air-sea group.

The crew is adjusted to the actual need thanks to a reasonable level of automation. Through-life support costs are reduced. The catapult aircraft carrier is compatible with most modern carrier-based aircraft (Rafale, F-18, E2C C/D…).
Unquote

• If BARC can come up with a 160 MW design N reactor then this reactor can be placed in our N-ACC
• This is significant as EMALS tech may be fully out of INS Vishal owing to issues in transferring this tech to India (US issues). This implies it will be a Catapult assisted take off .. Steam powered..
• This is where DCNS can come in the picture and bcz of their extensive experience they are a strategic player. They have relationship already with India via scorpenes and tie up with MDL...
• The aircraft designing and consultancy can have active inputs from DCNS who has experience for such platforms
• This co-operation is further in line with hints pointing to Indian interests in SSN Barracuda technologies for our indigenous SSN projects.. Again DCNS there, no surprises
• Thus i have a sneaky suspicion India may be negotiating for far too many things other than so called just Rafale fighters jets deal..
• This also hints perhaps to our earlier thought process that IN order firming may be just one of the bigger trigger points for Rafale deal particularly its MII component.
• Interestingly the minimum order confirmed is in line with earlier estimates of 200+ with 189 for IAF and 54 for carrier ops implying 243+ probably reaching equal or more than France orders herself
• Out of this if flyaway gets restricted at 36 or 54 the MII component requirement is almost 200..
• This implies there is more sense in ordering in tranches in line with how France orders her "Gusts" (Rafale). May be tranches to begin with 90/100 followed by 40/50 every few years.

@Abingdonboy @Vauban @Taygibay @anant_s @MilSpec @AUSTERLITZ
Its in line with what we have always discussed about Rafale potential in India.... The only small change i see is some more strategic consultancy or partnering by French company DCNS on our ACC... That angle will put a firm direction to where we are heading in terms of our plans and aircraft of our choice for a good amount of time.

Again this may prove that potentially 18s is not attractive to IN as the theme is unification of spare and supply chain for both IAF and IN.

Thus potentially Boeing interest may get routed here... and 16/Gripen as a direct threat to LCA is a known theme to masses.. Is it not again to what we said before that DM MP is just bluffing to put some pressure .. perhaps show in front of media a hard negotiator type image..??

Interestingly if this points to the strategic aspect of our relationship which is growing day by day, why is it that our media and people dont seems to see that and are trying hard to downplay such significant boost..

@Ankit Kumar Tagging you too as i think this will interest you..

 

[randomradio]

IN will most likely be buying a squadron or two of Mig-29K. There is no competition with Rafale. Both will eventually be purchased.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

India plans to announce a tender for the purchase of 54 new aircraft carrier and aircraft thereto

bmpd
February 25th, 1:07
According to French newsletter « TTU » in the material « the Porte-Avions indien:? The Rafale Marine vs the Mig 29K », the NDTV television channel confirmed that a high-level visit of the French delegation to India January 29, 2016 to meet with representatives of the Staff of the Indian Navy. The purpose of the visit was to offer Indians deck version fighter Dassault Rafale - Rafale M. Aircraft Design image carrier Vishal (a) indiandefence.com





India plans to announce a tender for the purchase of [meaning the design of foreign aid and construction on Indian shipyards] fourth aircraft carrier with a displacement of 65,000 tons, 300 meters long and 70 meters wide (as bulletin notes, almost British aircraft carrier Prince of Wales ). New Delhi seems to be leaning in favor of the nuclear power plant, which is considered less costly for long term use, as India looks to save a new aircraft carrier (which became known as Vishal ) for over 50 years.

The composition of the wing Vishal will be one of the most complex elements of the tender as the number of planes required reaches 54 units. Indian Ministry of Defence expects to achieve unification in the supply of spare parts for Air Force and Navy aircraft.

Thus, among the planes, which will be assessed only Rafale and the MiG-29, which the MiG-29K modifications already make up a wing of an aircraft carrier Vikrant , meet this condition.

Индия планирует объявить тендер на закупку нового авианосца и 54 самолетов к нему - bmpd

Original material

Porte-avions indien : Rafale Marine vs Mig 29K ? - TTU lettre d’information
Indian aircraft carrier: Rafale vs Mig 29K?

The NDTV television network confirmed that a high-level French delegation had met on January 29 the General Staff of the Indian Navy in order to propose the navy Rafale.

India plans to take to open a tender to acquire a fourth aircraft carrier of 65,000 tons, 300 m long and 70 m wide (or almost the characteristics of the "Prince of Wales"). New Delhi seems seduced by the nuclear-powered considered less costly in the long cycles of use, since it hopes to keep this new building, already dubbed "Vishal", almost fifty years.

The multirole air component of "Vishal" would be one of the critical points of this competition, and the amount of equipment required would be 54 copies. The Indian MoD seek more homogenizing logistics and spare parts between the planes of the Air Force and in the Navy. Now, among other aircraft that would be evaluated, only the Rafale, if acquired by the Indian Air Force, and the Mig 29, deployed in its navalized K version on the aircraft carrier "Vikrant" benefit from this asset.



++++++++
Comments:

• Bmpd quotes that serious contender is only Rafale M & Mig29K with the emphasis on to achieve unification in supply of spare parts for IAF and IN aircraft....
• It would be interesting if India asks for assistance from French majors for INS Vishal
• The usage of design of foreign aid and construction on Indian yards hints for a strategic consultancy role and may be co-designing especially around nuclear reactor position.
• Now only few companies across the world has such designing experience and among them the one with whom we have good strong relationship outside USA & Russia is France's DCNS

Since we have a long tie up with DCNS and judging by DCNS experience, i quote the following from their website
Source: Aircraft carriers | DCNS Group
Quote
The aircraft carrier is the largest type of warship, and is considered to be an airbase in its own right and veritable floating city. It provides autonomous air support that is crucial to the success of all types of naval or land operations.

It is one of the most important elements of a fleet and the aircraft carrier is escorted by other types of vessels and submarines (frigates, mine hunters, nuclear attack submarines, replenishment oilers, etc.). The aircraft carrier ensures the protection of this fleet.

DCNS has, in particular, designed and built the Charles de Gaulle nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. DCNS now ensures its maintenance.

DEAC® aircraft carrier
The aircraft carrier deploys an on-board aircraft group (up to 40 aircraft). DEAC® (DCNS Evolved AirCraft) is equipped with the latest generation of combat systems. Its advanced conventional propulsion system allows the optimization of replenishment frequency and ensures a permanent presence at sea within an air-sea group.

The crew is adjusted to the actual need thanks to a reasonable level of automation. Through-life support costs are reduced. The catapult aircraft carrier is compatible with most modern carrier-based aircraft (Rafale, F-18, E2C C/D…).
Unquote

• If BARC can come up with a 160 MW design N reactor then this reactor can be placed in our N-ACC
• This is significant as EMALS tech may be fully out of INS Vishal owing to issues in transferring this tech to India (US issues). This implies it will be a Catapult assisted take off .. Steam powered..
• This is where DCNS can come in the picture and bcz of their extensive experience they are a strategic player. They have relationship already with India via scorpenes and tie up with MDL...
• The aircraft designing and consultancy can have active inputs from DCNS who has experience for such platforms
• This co-operation is further in line with hints pointing to Indian interests in SSN Barracuda technologies for our indigenous SSN projects.. Again DCNS there, no surprises
• Thus i have a sneaky suspicion India may be negotiating for far too many things other than so called just Rafale fighters jets deal..
• This also hints perhaps to our earlier thought process that IN order firming may be just one of the bigger trigger points for Rafale deal particularly its MII component.
• Interestingly the minimum order confirmed is in line with earlier estimates of 200+ with 189 for IAF and 54 for carrier ops implying 243+ probably reaching equal or more than France orders herself
• Out of this if flyaway gets restricted at 36 or 54 the MII component requirement is almost 200..
• This implies there is more sense in ordering in tranches in line with how France orders her "Gusts" (Rafale). May be tranches to begin with 90/100 followed by 40/50 every few years.

@Abingdonboy @Vauban @Taygibay @anant_s @MilSpec @AUSTERLITZ
Its in line with what we have always discussed about Rafale potential in India.... The only small change i see is some more strategic consultancy or partnering by French company DCNS on our ACC... That angle will put a firm direction to where we are heading in terms of our plans and aircraft of our choice for a good amount of time.

Again this may prove that potentially 18s is not attractive to IN as the theme is unification of spare and supply chain for both IAF and IN.

Thus potentially Boeing interest may get routed here... and 16/Gripen as a direct threat to LCA is a known theme to masses.. Is it not again to what we said before that DM MP is just bluffing to put some pressure .. perhaps show in front of media a hard negotiator type image..??

Interestingly if this points to the strategic aspect of our relationship which is growing day by day, why is it that our media and people dont seems to see that and are trying hard to downplay such significant boost..

@Ankit Kumar Tagging you too as i think this will interest you..

Mig29K vs Rafale M?
I have few acquaintances, and friends but they have said it clearly that STOBAR => Mig29Ks and CATOBAR=> RafaleM / (F35 is still an option)

Mig29s will not form the air wing for our bigger carriers for sure.

As for deals with France , yes Rafale deal covers a lot of things. And through it a lot of other systems have been on offer.
Russians, French and Israelis acompanied by Czecks and Polish are our main suppliers and history has it that a big deal is bigger than what is visible.

But I really think, here it would be sensible to detach the first 36 negotiations from rest things and go ahead with its purchase. We will be losing ~63 fighter jets this year for retirement replaced by only 16 Su30mkis.

It is a grave situation and needs to be looked upon.

Another thing which someone pointed to me was options for foreign collaboration for building minesweepers for navy, apart from Russian and SK offers there are " some European " offers too.

Maybe DCNS gets a share of pie here, ( but personally I feel the offer came from Italy , whatever it may be , minesweepers are a big YES for navy. )

Thanks for the tag.

 

[Abingdonboy]

@PARIKRAMA what is interesting is the figure-54, this is the exact figure we (@Picdelamirand-oil @randomradio ) have been discussing for while now so it is clear there is a lot of credibility in these projections.

This also has a secondary effect of rubbishing all the cr@p about the F-18SH in India, if the IN had any beleif that the IAF were leaning towards it then they would be evaluating it also. The very fact they are not interested in the F-18SH highlights what chance it has for the IAF or IN and MII.

Also, there is no mention in this article about how these Rafale-Ms would be delivered to India (MII or off the shelf) but even if you take the confirmed requirements, that is 90 Rafales (36+54)- it is almost unfathomable that there would not be huge industrial benefits for such a large purchase. And we all know that the IAF requires far more than 36. All things are pointing to what we have speculated for a while- an Indian production line for the Rafale with a total Indian requirement (IAF and IN) north of 200 units.

For all the BS misinformation Boeing, SAAB, EFT and LM are putting out there the truth is starting to emerge...

Indian aircraft carrier: Rafale vs Mig 29K?

The NDTV television network confirmed that a high-level French delegation had met on January 29 the General Staff of the Indian Navy in order to propose the navy Rafale.

India plans to take to open a tender to acquire a fourth aircraft carrier of 65,000 tons, 300 m long and 70 m wide (or almost the characteristics of the "Prince of Wales"). New Delhi seems seduced by the nuclear-powered considered less costly in the long cycles of use, since it hopes to keep this new building, already dubbed "Vishal", almost fifty years.

The multirole air component of "Vishal" would be one of the critical points of this competition, and the amount of equipment required would be 54 copies. The Indian MoD seek more homogenizing logistics and spare parts between the planes of the Air Force and in the Navy. Now, among other aircraft that would be evaluated, only the Rafale, if acquired by the Indian Air Force, and the Mig 29, deployed in its navalized K version on the aircraft carrier "Vikrant" benefit from this asset.

There will be NO MiG-29K vs Rafale-M discussion if it is a question of the IAC-2's airwing, that will ONLY ever be the Rafale-M (if F-35Cs aren't forced on the IN) as the MiG-29K simply cannot operate from CATOBAR carriers. The only time there would be a Rafale-M vs MiG-29K discussion within the IN is IF the IN is shopping around for an airwing for their STOBAR carriers- IAC-1 and its sister ship (this news may even be confirmation the sister ship is coming).


And here is where things get interesting- the Rafale-M is a shoe-in for the IAC-2 (discounting external influences ie US demands attatched to the EMALS/E-2D sale) however Dassualt are now pushing for the IN's STOBAR carriers also. If the IN is truly looking for commanality with the IAF for the long term then, again, the Rafale-M is the logical choice. Today the IAF operates the MiG-29 (being upgraded to UPG) but these planes have, at most, 15 years of life left in them ie they will be out of Indian service by 2030. On the other hand, the IAF's Rafales will be in service until at least 2045 so which platform will give the IN the most commonility with the IAF for the long term? Rafale- it's not even a contest.

And let's not forget that under the IN's MiG-29K deal, Mikoyan created ZERO industrial base in India, Dassualt are looking to make massive commitments to India purely for the IAF deal, the IN would certainly be able to benefit from this investment and for a long period.


If Dassualt plays their cards right- emphasising the strategic benefits of their offer, ensuring their operating costs (and thus LCCs) are clearly below the IN's MiG-29Ks, highlighting the industrial benefits that will come with the Rafale, talking about what their plans are for the IAF, showcasing the strategic autonomy that exists with the Rafale and ensuring the IN knows they will work with them (this is very important to the IN) then Dassualt can win BIG just with the IN (100+ jets by 2030 and another 55-60 per IAC-2 class carrier churned out beyond that).


I hope all sides stop bean counting and understand what they are on the cusp of here, it is truly strategic in nature and can be a game changer for all stakeholders. I have no issue with saying that if all the above occurs, this GoI has ensured the IAF remains the finest AF in Asia and the IN are the undisputed net security provider in the IOR.


@anant_s @Skull and Bones @knight11 @Taygibay @MilSpec @nair @Vauban @Blue Marlin @SpArK @AUSTERLITZ

 

[PARIKRAMA]

@PARIKRAMA what is interesting is the figure-54, this is the exact figure we (@Picdelamirand-oil @randomradio ) have been discussing for while now so it is clear there is a lot of credibility in these projections.

This also has a secondary effect of rubbishing all the cr@p about the F-18SH in India, if the IN had any beleif that the IAF were leaning towards it then they would be evaluating it also. The very fact they are not interested in the F-18SH highlights what chance it has for the IAF or IN and MII.

Also, there is no mention in this article about how these Rafale-Ms would be delivered to India (MII or off the shelf) but even if you take the confirmed requirements, that is 90 Rafales (36+54)- it is almost unfathomable that there would not be huge industrial benefits for such a large purchase. And we all know that the IAF requires far more than 36. All things are pointing to what we have speculated for a while- an Indian production line for the Rafale with a total Indian requirement (IAF and IN) north of 200 units.

For all the BS misinformation Boeing, SAAB, EFT and LM are putting out there the truth is starting to emerge...



There will be NO MiG-29K vs Rafale-M discussion if it is a question of the IAC-2's airwing, that will ONLY ever be the Rafale-M (if F-35Cs aren't forced on the IN) as the MiG-29K simply cannot operate from CATOBAR carriers. The only time there would be a Rafale-M vs MiG-29K discussion within the IN is IF the IN is shopping around for an airwing for their STOBAR carriers- IAC-1 and its sister ship (this news may even be confirmation the sister ship is coming).


And here is where things get interesting- the Rafale-M is a shoe-in for the IAC-2 (discounting external influences ie US demands attatched to the EMALS/E-2D sale) however Dassualt are now pushing for the IN's STOBAR carriers also. If the IN is truly looking for commanality with the IAF for the long term then, again, the Rafale-M is the logical choice. Today the IAF operates the MiG-29 (being upgraded to UPG) but these planes have, at most, 15 years of life left in them ie they will be out of Indian service by 2030. On the other hand, the IAF's Rafales will be in service until at least 2045 so which platform will give the IN the most commonility with the IAF for the long term? Rafale- it's not even a contest.

And let's not forget that under the IN's MiG-29K deal, Mikoyan created ZERO industrial base in India, Dassualt are looking to make massive commitments to India purely for the IAF deal, the IN would certainly be able to benefit from this investment and for a long period.


If Dassualt plays their cards right- emphasising the strategic benefits of their offer, ensuring their operating costs (and thus LCCs) are clearly below the IN's MiG-29Ks, highlighting the industrial benefits that will come with the Rafale, talking about what their plans are for the IAF, showcasing the strategic autonomy that exists with the Rafale and ensuring the IN knows they will work with them (this is very important to the IN) then Dassualt can win BIG just with the IN (100+ jets by 2030 and another 55-60 per IAC-2 class carrier churned out beyond that).


I hope all sides stop bean counting and understand what they are on the cusp of here, it is truly strategic in nature and can be a game changer for all stakeholders. I have no issue with saying that if all the above occurs, this GoI has ensured the IAF remains the finest AF in Asia and the IN are the undisputed net security provider in the IOR.


@anant_s @Skull and Bones @knight11 @Taygibay @MilSpec @nair @Vauban @Blue Marlin @SpArK @AUSTERLITZ

I believe the author did the versus thing unknowingly as he may have plainly considered only the commanality aspect between IAF and IN

The versus thing becomes a reality for STOBAR carrier surely as we have discussed before that modified IAC1 follow on can sport Rafales...

For catobar, the author must have used the soundbytes where Mig talked about some customization to enable CATOBAR ops... which of course is anyway discarded

Here is what i see happening
1. We might order a 1-2 squadron more Mig 29ks for the sake of taking over INS vikramaditya thoroughly and negating the planned LCA navy 1 squadron number on deck.

2. The fight again becomes clear for all future STOBAR carriers including perhaps IAC 1 which may see Mig 29Ks but with 50 years life of the ship, IN might opt for Rafale M..

3. For Catobar, i see Rafale M and DCNS coming together

4. For the timeline of indian line production we might see some Rafale M perhaps the first 54 from Merignac line and later may be from Indian line

5. In total Meriganc line may see 36+18+54 = 108 jets build there or at least 36+54 = 90 build there and in India we might see 135+ for IAF and another 75+ for IN ... Most probably minimum double the Merignac line.

Interestingly, Prasun K Sengupta again gave a view on line verbal stuff from DM MP

By ‘Another Plane’ the RM was referring to the naval version of the LCA—LCA (Navy) Mk.1—which will be optimized for use by the IAF. The existing SP-series Tejas Mk.1 are not operational effective as warfighting assets. The IAF said so as much when it appreciated the Tejas Mk.1’s agility characteristics ‘in operationally clean configuration’, meaning in weaponised configuration, several more hurdles remain to be cleared. And since it is IMPOSSIBLE for the Tejas Mk.1 to be fitted with internal IRST sensor & MAWS, the only available fallback option is to have them on board the IAF variant of the LCA (Navy) Mk.1.

So as we both predicted its just LCA and Rafale according to PSK too..

 

[Abingdonboy]

The versus thing becomes a reality for STOBAR carrier surely as we have discussed before that modified IAC1 follow on can sport Rafales...

For catobar, the author must have used the soundbytes where Mig talked about some customization to enable CATOBAR ops... which of course is anyway discarded

I think you are right about the reporter not having a clue.

1. We might order a 1-2 squadron more Mig 29ks for the sake of taking over INS vikramaditya thoroughly and negating the planned LCA navy 1 squadron number on deck.

2. The fight again becomes clear for all future STOBAR carriers including perhaps IAC 1 which may see Mig 29Ks but with 50 years life of the ship, IN might opt for Rafale M..

I think 1-2 more MiG-29K SQN will be ordered for the Viky and IAC-1 (Vikrant)-70 (aprx) MiG-29Ks for 2 ACs +shore based training requirements adds up well (2 SQNs per AC and 1-2 for shore duties).

BUT, IF there is going to be an IAC-1 sister ship then, IMO it makes the most sense to give it the Rafale-M for all the reasons already stated- commonaility with the IAF's fleet for the longest period, commonaility with the IN's CATOBAR carrier airwings, industrial benifits, lower LCCs, easer maintainence whilst underway etc etc

So as we both predicted its just LCA and Rafale according to PSK too..

Haha, duh! I heven't considered a third option as viable since that IGA was announced- that is game over for all other parties (no matter what games Parrikar is trying to play).

 

[Masterhunter]

I believe the author did the versus thing unknowingly as he may have plainly considered only the commanality aspect between IAF and IN

The versus thing becomes a reality for STOBAR carrier surely as we have discussed before that modified IAC1 follow on can sport Rafales...

For catobar, the author must have used the soundbytes where Mig talked about some customization to enable CATOBAR ops... which of course is anyway discarded

Here is what i see happening
1. We might order a 1-2 squadron more Mig 29ks for the sake of taking over INS vikramaditya thoroughly and negating the planned LCA navy 1 squadron number on deck.

2. The fight again becomes clear for all future STOBAR carriers including perhaps IAC 1 which may see Mig 29Ks but with 50 years life of the ship, IN might opt for Rafale M..

3. For Catobar, i see Rafale M and DCNS coming together

4. For the timeline of indian line production we might see some Rafale M perhaps the first 54 from Merignac line and later may be from Indian line

5. In total Meriganc line may see 36+18+54 = 108 jets build there or at least 36+54 = 90 build there and in India we might see 135+ for IAF and another 75+ for IN ... Most probably minimum double the Merignac line.

Interestingly, Prasun K Sengupta again gave a view on line verbal stuff from DM MP

By ‘Another Plane’ the RM was referring to the naval version of the LCA—LCA (Navy) Mk.1—which will be optimized for use by the IAF. The existing SP-series Tejas Mk.1 are not operational effective as warfighting assets. The IAF said so as much when it appreciated the Tejas Mk.1’s agility characteristics ‘in operationally clean configuration’, meaning in weaponised configuration, several more hurdles remain to be cleared. And since it is IMPOSSIBLE for the Tejas Mk.1 to be fitted with internal IRST sensor & MAWS, the only available fallback option is to have them on board the IAF variant of the LCA (Navy) Mk.1.

So as we both predicted its just LCA and Rafale according to PSK too..

Well... That is a hell of a good news of rafale and me perse.

What I feel is that MIG29 order will be maxed at 1 sqn (20 planes) or at Max 24 planes. That will give IN 65 MIG 29... Enuf to create 04 sqn(12 planes) to man both carriers.. And rest of airwing will be made by NLCA ( 8 each carrier)..
If they order two sqn that is about 40 planes.. They can have 32 planes on both carriers (total 64) and NLCA (46 on order) will then will actually is not useful in that number.
Also, at any point of time in near future (unless war), only one carrier will be sailing and second will remain in harbour, so 65-70 planes is good number to good number to go with to man one carrier and having spare for another in case of emergency.

About IAF MIG29UPG, they are in plans to be phased out by 2030-35... They will used for spares by IN afor their MIG's as they will be operational till 2040-45, if not upgraded (25 yr life) or till 2055 (if upgraded).
Rafale number for IN is gonna be very BIG.. Naval AmCA is not in sight till 2035.. And IN will be operating two more carriers vikrant follow on (32-36 planes) and Vishal (54 planes) ... That's 90 plus 1 sqn each for A&N and lakshadweep (36) and spares . The total goes to about 126+ spares... If u say NLCA can fulfill some requirement, still IN needs 100+ Rafale.
And I don't foresee F35 in Indian colours. IN is very clear in their operational mindset, they don't want interference or checks by some other country. And US won't push F35 that much they will push F18 SH/ASH for navy for EMALS...