Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[randomradio]

MiG To Sign MiG-35 Fighter Contract With Russian Defense Ministry

I do not agree that you are preferring a paper plane as of now over an aircraft which has over a dozen airframe built.

Those are not production version. Those are for state trials. The main order will come only around 2018. The Gripen NG isn't exactly a paper plane. It is a modification of the Demo program and that in turn is based on the two seat version.

And I would prefer a 60 million dollar Mig35 any day over an assembly of Gripen NG at 200 million dollars with foreign parts.

I don't think you've heard the news, the option if for one or two additional aircraft. This is apart from Rafale. So that one or two aircraft can be both Gripen and Mig-35.

Mig-35 is about 5 times cheaper than what you have quoted. Gripen's production costs are obviously more expensive, but LCC costs will be much lower. I mean, the Brazilian contract was for 150M/aircraft and this included 100% offsets, ToT, industrial production, development of Gripen F etc. I believe the Swiss Gripen costs were $100M lower than Rafale's too, and that's only for 22 aircraft. It could get even more cheap if we include a large order and production of the engine in India.

In fact, we can afford the Mig-35 line and Gripen line together, both are extremely cheap now. These two lines become impossible if we go for F-16 or SH.

All I am saying is the Mig-35 is going to take much longer than what people think. It will take many years for full rate production to start.

 

[Taygibay]

Picdel shares the same. And according to Picdel, any excess manpower from Rafale lines can be converted to Falcon lines after production is complete.

I cannot and will not speak for him but I highly doubt that Pic shares your view
that Dassault wants to transfer all Falcon activity to India. Most of the Falcon
business comes from America and the balance between the 2 is not what you think :
Dassault Falcon Sales, Deliveries Drop in 2015 | Business Aviation News: Aviation International News

I have no problem with the permeability of design and production units/lines and
feel confident that I understand it at least as well as you do if not at Pic's level.
In fact, at the size of Dassault, the 2 activity sectors are highly complementary &
support each other to the point that without either one, Dassault would be dead.
Thus, neither is for sale at the moment!

And I'm not sure if you have read enough about it, but Dassault plans to partner with Reliance for making the Rafales in India.

Now, that was so patronizing that it qualifies for a same tone answer!
I defended Dassault's choice of Reliance as partner from the onset ...
and you weren't there at all back then, early in 2012! Or did I miss you?

So here :

Arms importations ( all ) :

France 20 M

India 4,243 M



Arms exportations ( major systems ) :

France 1,978 B

India 55 M

As per SIPRI tables & 2015 will show worst by far!

Wake me up when you have an arms industry worth talking about, something close to ours!
I'm done comparing reality with pipe dreams.

I should have stuck to my intention not to reply to this lalaland thread, my bad!
So note to PariK and Abingdon, GL guys but forget the tags here from now on, Tay.

P.S. And to think that you are one of the calm reasonable ones ...

 

[randomradio]

I cannot and will not speak for him but I highly doubt that Pic shares your view
that Dassault wants to transfer all Falcon activity to India. Most of the Falcon
business comes from America and the balance between the 2 is not what you think :tion International News

I have no problem with the permeability of design and production units/lines and
feel confident that I understand it at least as well as you do if not at Pic's level.
In fact, at the size of Dassault, the 2 activity sectors are highly complementary &
support each other to the point that without either one, Dassault would be dead.
Thus, neither is for sale at the moment!

Huh? No. No. Not all of Falcon. The Falcon variant for MII is just one maybe two types in order to tap the Indian market. It can also avoid custom taxes.

Regardless, the program has already achieved ministry clearance.

Now, that was so patronizing that it qualifies for a same tone answer!

I defended Dassault's choice of Reliance as partner from the onset ...
and you weren't there at all back then, early in 2012! Or did I miss you?

So here :

Arms importations ( all ) :

France 20 M

India 4,243 M



Arms exportations ( major systems ) :

France 1,978 B

India 55 M

As per SIPRI tables & 2015 will show worst by far!

Wake me up when you have an arms industry worth talking about, something close to ours!
I'm done comparing reality with pipe dreams.

I should have stuck to my intention not to reply to this lalaland thread, my bad!
So note to PariK and Abingdon, GL guys but forget the tags here from now on, Tay.

P.S. And to think that you are one of the calm reasonable ones ...

I think you are unable to understand my posts.

Actually, I have no idea what you are trying to say here.

 

[Piper]

I cannot and will not speak for him but I highly doubt that Pic shares your view
that Dassault wants to transfer all Falcon activity to India. Most of the Falcon
business comes from America and the balance between the 2 is not what you think :
Dassault Falcon Sales, Deliveries Drop in 2015 | Business Aviation News: Aviation International News

I have no problem with the permeability of design and production units/lines and
feel confident that I understand it at least as well as you do if not at Pic's level.
In fact, at the size of Dassault, the 2 activity sectors are highly complementary &
support each other to the point that without either one, Dassault would be dead.
Thus, neither is for sale at the moment!




Now, that was so patronizing that it qualifies for a same tone answer!
I defended Dassault's choice of Reliance as partner from the onset ...
and you weren't there at all back then, early in 2012! Or did I miss you?

So here :

Arms importations ( all ) :

France 20 M

India 4,243 M



Arms exportations ( major systems ) :

France 1,978 B

India 55 M

As per SIPRI tables & 2015 will show worst by far!

Wake me up when you have an arms industry worth talking about, something close to ours!
I'm done comparing reality with pipe dreams.

I should have stuck to my intention not to reply to this lalaland thread, my bad!
So note to PariK and Abingdon, GL guys but forget the tags here from now on, Tay.

P.S. And to think that you are one of the calm reasonable ones ...

Your exit from this was a forgone conclusion, after-all there is only so much indulgence for the theatre of absurd.

I am afraid folks but India has to go about it developing it's MII the hard way. Every country with a solitary exception of Israel has gotten around to it through sheer grit, guile and determination without any sugar daddies to speak of. Even Israel in current times is a paragon of innovation.

I hate to ride on someone else's coat-tails but in this case Taygibay is correct - May be there was a time when France would have considered establishing a production line in India but that was before the deal with Arabs. Prospective order of 36+18 which what is being touted as reality is unlikely to be an incentive enough for French to part with their crown jewels and as akin to cannibalization. The unrealistic numbers of 120/190/240 etc are no better than fan-boy fantasies.

What is possible though is that the shortfall is made up with line production of low cost fighters currently on offer to India and are proportionate to the fighters being replaced like the Mig variants.

It was indeed a revelation to me when someone on this thread posted that the LCC costs of the latest blocks are Hornets are not that far off from Rafales. In such a scenario private lines for improved LCA with an alternative of F-16 or Gripen is a feasible option. In case of F-16 dis-continuation is almost a certainty and SAAB seems desperate enough to get a buyer for their Jets so it wouldn't be a problem setting up an Indian line.

However in the unlikely scenario India discovers a city full of gold buried somewhere and wants to spend it all on Rafales then C'est la vie!!

 

[sathya]

I cannot and will not speak for him but

Arms importations ( all ) :

France 20 M

India 4,243 M



Arms exportations ( major systems ) :

France 1,978 B

India 55 M

As per SIPRI tables & 2015 will show worst by far!

Wake me up when you have an arms industry worth talking about, something close to ours!
I'm done comparing reality with pipe dreams.

I should have stuck to my intention not to reply to this lalaland thread, my bad!
So note to PariK and Abingdon, GL guys but forget the tags here from now on, Tay.

P.S. And to think that you are one of the calm reasonable ones ...

Slap in our face to wake up..

Let me hope concerned people wake up , or at least private sector z..

And I hope I can reply to you with facts that we have beat u in exports in my life time..

Your exit from this was a forgone conclusion, after-all there is only so much indulgence for the theatre of absurd.

However in the unlikely scenario India discovers a city full of gold buried somewhere and wants to spend it all on Rafales then C'est la vie!!

We did find gold in Trivandrum temple...

 

[randomradio]

However in the unlikely scenario India discovers a city full of gold buried somewhere and wants to spend it all on Rafales then C'est la vie!!

Okay let me lay it straight. This goes to @Taygibay as well.

MII programs for Falcons and Rafales are happening. The decision has already been taken. The MoD is waiting for IN decision to decide the final numbers.

This is Hollande's own words:
Hollande in India: Rafale deal likely to see some progress - The Hindu

“The Rafale is a major project for India and France. It will pave the way for an unprecedented industrial and technological cooperation, including ‘Make in India’, for the next 40 years. Agreeing on the technicalities of this arrangement obviously takes time, but we are on the right track,” he said in an interview to PTI.

Licences cleared for 19 high-tech defence JVs | mydigitalfc.com

Reliance Aerospace Technologies that has a joint venture with French Aerospace giant, Dassault Aviation and another tie up with US-based Boeing, will be able to commence production facilities in Andhra Pradesh as the defence deals stipulate 30 per cent domestic sourcing of equipment, spares and indigenous material for the Rafale combat jets, Falcon jets and Boeing’s P81 aircraft.

Reliance will start with making spares, followed by sub-assemblies and then full line for Falcon.

I never claimed "all" Falcons will be made in India, Tay did. I never claimed anything that would relate to comparing India's export industry with France either. So I am not the one making unreasonable claims.

The future plan:
And Dassault's plan in India under Make in India for Rafales is bigger than you imagine. I don't have to stress enough what it means when Hollande himself said the cooperation will be 'unprecedented'. The plan is to make more Rafales in India than in France and at a faster pace in a shorter time. This means the scale of economics, labour, access to resources etc are all in India's favour. So there is a high possibility that the cost of production and spares manufacturing is bound to be cheaper in India than in France. And the JV company would be shared with an Indian production partner, but the technology itself will be under Dassault's control. There is reason to believe the share of this JV company could be 51-49 in favour of Dassault.

As for total orders, the orders may come in different tranches. It will start with the initial 90 for IAF and 54 for IN. After that new tranche orders will come in, this is quite unprecedented for IAF because they can opt for new versions as and when they are released, unlike in the past. The minimum number for IAF is 180. The minimum number for IN is 54. Potential extension of the orders could take it beyond 300, since that's about half the total requirement.

Minimum production numbers is 20 per year for IAF alone. For the navy and exports we are yet to see.

As for exports. The current export orders are 24 Egypt, 24 Qatar, 36 India and 60 UAE. That's 144 jets. At 22 per year, since 11 are booked by the French themselves, it will take France 6.5 years to deliver all 144 jets. With deliveries from 2018 onwards (minus Egypt), the order will be done only in 2024, not counting an expansion of numbers, especially from Qatar because they originally wanted 72 jets. For any new orders a major expansion of the line is necessary. If exports rise beyond 144, it is obvious the Indian line will have to deliver the rest, subject to being more cost effective than in France.

Before IDF shut down, we had a member called CNL who pointed out that 5 new countries are in line for Rafale exports. And there was also a news report that said the Saudis want 72 jets. These countries are obviously not going to wait until 2024. That's where the Indian line comes in. Picdel is of the opinion that the line in India could very well expand to 45 jets a year. That leaves 25/year for the IN and export.

@Piper The Indian capital budget for the period between now and 2027 is well over $100B at a growth rate of 8%. The defence budget in India generally grows at 10-12% with an occasional burst of 25+% after every few years. So the Indian capital budget could easily exceed $150B. The total cost of acquiring 20 Rafales a year is only $2-3B a year. Over a period of 10 years that's just $20B. The cost of the Indian contribution to the production line will be covered by the offsets from the 36 aircraft. Of course, there is also a chance that the IAF may opt for quick inductions of Rafale by expanding their yearly purchase after 2025, like they did during the MKI program by doubling orders to 25 jets a year for a period of 5 years. By 2025, the IAF's yearly capital budget could be over $15B, closer to $20B, which means they can easily get 40 jets a year and still have about $10-15B left over.

None of this is unreasonable. This is the game plan. And to add to this plan, one or two additional MMRCA lines will be set up because a few hundred Rafales are simply not enough.

@ Piper We did find a city of gold that can fund all the Rafales.
About $22 Billion In Gold, Diamonds, Jewels Found In Indian Temple : The Two-Way : NPR

Over the past week, on orders from the country's Supreme Court, a panel has found a treasure estimated to be worth $22 billion in the underground vaults of a Hindu temple in Trivandrum, India.

Cheers, bro.

 

[Piper]

@ Piper We did find a city of gold that can fund all the Rafales.

Well Well!! What do ya know!

IAF has lot of outlays; large amount of personnel who need to be paid, legacy jets which need to be maintained and upgraded, new projects with Russia which need to be midwifed, home grown hail Mary's like AMCA and LCA Block 2, gunships, logistic support aircrafts, S-400 systems etc etc. It would lot more than 10-15 Billion to ensure that everything comes online in a streamlined manner.

 

[randomradio]

Well Well!! What do ya know!

IAF has lot of outlays; large amount of personnel who need to be paid, legacy jets which need to be maintained and upgraded, new projects with Russia which need to be midwifed, home grown hail Mary's like AMCA and LCA Block 2, gunships, logistic support aircrafts, S-400 systems etc etc. It would lot more than 10-15 Billion to ensure that everything comes online in a streamlined manner.

Personnel, maintenance etc comes under a different budget category, the revenue budget. That $100B figure for IAF is very modest. This budget does not take into account the IN's share of aircraft. They have their own budget which is almost as big.

If production starts at 20 a year for the IAF by 2020, then by 2027 they would have only 140 jets. That would cost them less than $20B with weapons, spares and training. About $15B for a second MMRCA program for the same numbers. So that's just 35% of the total capital budget for the IAF during that same period. Only Su-30 and a few Jaguars would be undergoing upgrades post 2022, that's not a lot. The remaining can easily buy them support aircraft. Support aircraft don't cost a lot because the most expensive aircraft are bought in small numbers.

You can make a list of the biggest IAF programs and you will realize that the absolute biggest programs are not as big as one imagines it to be.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

SEMMB aims to double its production of Rafale seats in 2017

Currently, the assembly shop of the ejection seat Rafale SEMMB (Société d'Exploitation of Materials Martin Baker) in Argenteuil idling. It is not the great excitement towards Merignac where are assembled the Rafale. The runaway political and media generated by the signing of the first export contracts has not crossed the threshold of the workshops.

It takes about 200 hours to assemble and check ejection seat MkF16F Gust
© Gil Roy / Aerobuzz.fr
The first six Rafale delivered in a hurry to Egypt were taken on the French quota, to the relief of the Ministry of Defence. Not therefore need to work extra hard. As for deliveries of Qatar, they will not begin until 2018. By then, India will be signed for 36 aircraft and Dassault have won other contracts. That at least is the belief of Eric Trappier, the CEO of the company. Hence his decision to set capacity to triple the production rate if necessary. The SEMMB logically follows suit.

The joint venture of Safran and Martin-Baker has indeed strengthen its workforce by hiring three additional technicians, currently under formation. 13 operators are assigned to the seat assembly. " By the end of 2016 we will have doubled our production capacity ," says Laurent Leyniac, the foreman. Besides the increase in staff, SEMMB put on the versatility of its technicians. " The operators assigned to the maintenance of the Mirage 2000 seats and Alphajets will be able to seat assembly Rafale ". The subsidiary of Safran employs fifty employees.The main of its business consists of maintenance ejection seats based on aircraft built by Dassault. If twenty Rafale MkF16F new seats are assembled each year in Argenteuil, however, 100 to 130 seats are revised at the same time. [ 1] To Challenge SEMMB is mobilizing its suppliers [ 2 ] to successfully achieve the production rate of 4 seats per month since 2017. To give some flexibility, the Franco-British equipment manufacturer also plans to form the stock. " This is possible since pyrotechnics is mounted in Merignac by Dassault ," said Laurent Leyniac.

An ejection seat MkF16F Gust contains about 3,500 pieces and weighs an average of approximately 90 kg
© Safran
Since its creation in 1959, SEMMB produced about 5,700 seats [ 3 ] and saved 698 pilots life. In other words, more of an ejection seat out of 10 was used by a driver. That's an average of nearly 60 years. Modern aircraft are more reliable and better supervised procedures. The proof of the 250 seats Gust delivered to date, 3 were used.

Gil Roy

Notes
[ 1 ] The seats are reviewed every 2 years after commissioning, with a general overhaul every 6 years.

[ 2 ] Forty suppliers contributing to the manufacture of seats with Martin-Baker Aircraft (UK), Ronaldsway (Isle of Man), Zodiac Aerospace (France), Dassault Aviation (France), Meggitt Aerospace (UK), Air Liquide (France) etc.

[ 3 ] SEMMB produced to date 5,700 seats including 250 for the Rafale, Mirage 1470 to 2000 for the 47 Super Etendard, and 220 for Alphajets, aircraft training of armed pilots. The aircraft are equipped with 1 or 2 seats according to demand of the armed (on the fleet of the French army, 2/3 seater planes).

SEMMB vise le doublement de sa production de sièges de Rafale dès (...) - Aerobuzz


Assuming 4 seats a month and perhaps full 12 months production unlike Dassault 11 months production, the seat totals 48 a year
And seats are reviewed in 2 years as indicated after 2 years of commissioning. If the assumption is just for Merignac line won't this be stocking way too many seats.. I mean every year excess will lead to in 2 years of production almost equalling Rafale production for 1 year I Merignac line.

Thus I have a second line of thought here..

Dassault may use either 33 full production line usage or say 22 types production or in-between for orders it has in hand including almost confirmed India order

This leaves around 15 extra seats a year if Merignac production is at 33 per year
Or
Around 26 extra seats a year if Merignac production is at 22 jets a year...

Effectively since Martin Baker is a small player it's scaling up indicates a much bigger plan for rush in order.. And in line with perhaps a indication that it's stock will be consumed within a set timeline....

Does this indicate towards a conclusive Rafale in India under MII or is it another elusive deal with far fetched ripe imagination...particularly mine who is keen to find some hints among its suppliers plan for such a case..

@Abingdonboy @Vauban @Picdelamirand-oil

@Taygibay
Tagging you Tay for information.. If you feel comfy do reply.. Of course I can't force you but your views will be appreciated..

 

[randomradio]

This leaves around 15 extra seats a year if Merignac production is at 33 per year
Or
Around 26 extra seats a year if Merignac production is at 22 jets a year...

Rafale-B has two seats.

Does this indicate towards a conclusive Rafale in India under MII or is it another elusive deal with far fetched ripe imagination...particularly mine who is keen to find some hints among its suppliers plan for such a case..

MII is yet to be announced.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Rafale-B has two seats.



MII is yet to be announced.

So in such a scenario, Martin Baker has to yp it's production further to accommodate so called MII order?

Expansion from 2 per month to 4 to say 6 or 8 is too steep for such a specialised company where per seat takes almost 200 hours to produce..

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

So in such a scenario, Martin Baker has to yp it's production further to accommodate so called MII order?

Expansion from 2 per month to 4 to say 6 or 8 is too steep for such a specialised company where per seat takes almost 200 hours to produce..

You cannot increase too much the production, because you need skill people to supervise the newcomers. So they increase now, and they will increase again in two years.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

You cannot increase too much the production, because you need skill people to supervise the newcomers. So they increase now, and they will increase again in two years.

Thats what i also thought..

In fact thats what i have a common understanding from Dassault supply chain whose already expanding in line with ramping up the orders.. each of these expansions takes time, finance and viability of production being used..

So i was feeling for a specialised company like Bakers, it may be difficult to find out sufficient people with skills to expand the production by too much numbers or adding another 50% over and above 4 per month after 2017. Perhaps such a review may be done more like 2019/2020 types to see the real visibility of any such needs.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Thats what i also thought..

In fact thats what i have a common understanding from Dassault supply chain whose already expanding in line with ramping up the orders.. each of these expansions takes time, finance and viability of production being used..

So i was feeling for a specialised company like Bakers, it may be difficult to find out sufficient people with skills to expand the production by too much numbers or adding another 50% over and above 4 per month after 2017. Perhaps such a review may be done more like 2019/2020 types to see the real visibility of any such needs.

It's not so hard, because with the 130 Rafale already procured we removed 593 old planes, mainly Mirage of all types, it's a lot of seat you stop to maintain, and these people can be used, after a training to build new seat.

 

[randomradio]

Cross posting Picdel's post from IDF:
Today an interview of Trappier, CEO of Dassault where he said there is just a little detail to conclude: the price. But he said that smiling and also he said that Dassault is preparing for the make in India a proposal for 90 Rafale (as first step)

@Picdelamirand-oil We were expecting this announcement after Dassault was sure of the contract signature for the first 36. So does that mean we have the 36 in the bag now?