I happened to see a telecast on the Rafale acquisition hosted by an English news channel , shortly after P.M.Modi's trip to France.The panelists were ACM - Tipnis , BHARAT Karnad , Shishir Gupta & another participant whose name I forget.
What came through very clearly , was the vehemence with which ACM Tipnis was opposed to inducting any more FA ( Fighter Aircrafts ) from Russia.
Apparently, the Russians shared pretty much all the info abt Su 30 MKI with the Chinese apart from selling them the Su 30 MKK ,going against their word given to the then GoI , which signed the agreement ( I believe it was the UF govt , with Mulayam YADAV as the DM under the premiership of P.M Gujral ) & the IAF .To add to that were the Admiral Goshkov cost over runs & the T- 90 performance imbroglio .You can read this along with @Milispec posts on how the specifications on the MMRCA tender were tweaked to put the aircrafts manufacturered by Russia at a disadvantage. I also recall Karnad being silent when confronted with the fact that the Su 30 MKK was sold to the Chinese against sovereign guarantees not uo do do by the Russians. I remember Karnad coming up with the lame excuse that the Yeltsin era was that of tremendous economic depravation for the Russians & the Russia of then should not be confused with the Russia of now.
FGFA was being pursued more by the MoD than by the IAF.All the subsequent happenings duly reported in the media then & now seems to confirm the unhappiness with the FGFA programme by the IAF.I believe , it will be pursued , nevertheless, given the fact that we lack choices & for maintaining our strategic relationship with the Russians with the caveat that the Russians should come up with the technological inputs which satisfy the IAF .
The Rafale deal would be concluded with a final inventory in excess of 300 FA with the IAF & the IN as
@Abingdonboy &
@PARIKRAMA have been arguing in almost every thread on the Rafale .Hats off to both of them for their insights , off the record sippets of info & their technical prowess in proving why Rafale is the right choice for the IAF the high cost notwithstanding. One may also see a deepening of Indo French strategic ties with future collaboration with Dassault in the AMCA project along with the Israelis .
Which brings us to the LCA - Mk 2 & the Gripen , F 16 / F 18 issue.I think it's no longer a matter of speculation that we'd see the FOC approved LCA - Mk 2 not earlier than 2024 / 25 timelines .Which is the reason for the current dilemma that the DM faces given the depleting nos of the IAF .
I believe the Gripen will be ruled out as they don't being anything new to the table either in the form of technology or anything else .Given that the tech specs of the Gripen NG is more or less similar to the LCA - Mk 2 , there seems no logical reason why would the MoD or the IAF choose to go with it.After all the Gripen NG is expected to be ready by 2019 & the LCA - Mk 2 by 2025. There is not much of a time difference to make a case for acquisition of the Gripen .
Which brings us to the F16 / F18 FA & the US .Given that the MoD has already approved purchase of the 40 Super Sukhois from Russia ( whether this was part of an earlier plan or whether this is to do with bolstering the nos of the ever rapidly depleting inventory of FA with the IAF is not clear as of now ) , it should be enough to mollify the Russians )
I believe we may see the acquisition of either the F 16 or the F 18 ( some 100 odd aircrafts ) to make up the shortfall of FA in the IAF given that the LCA - Mk 2 will arrive only towards the end of the 2030's . This would be fine for two reasons .Demonstration of our willingness to develop & deepen strategic ties with the US & to reassure the US that they will have a stake in India's huge defence pie too given their support to us on various issues fora( Indo US civil N Co operation , Facilitating our entry to the NSG , the Wassenaar Group , MTCR , etc & helping our effort to beciming a permanent member of the UNSC .A certain amount of payback is called for & is expected ) & the gradual convergence of Indo US strategic ties given the rise of China .
This collaboration of which MII is going to be a part will also be a test case by both parties to see how such a deepening strategic engagement pans out .From India's POV , It's a low risk effort as whichever FA is chosen ( they are both formidable as well as tried & tested platforms ) they will not impinge too much on our strategic calculations & our defence operations given the US penchant for dictating their allies policy & use of defence equipment ( BCA , CISMOA , etc . as well as prohibition of N arming FA of US origin as well as their use against a nation considered friendly by the US) . The general maintenance & availability of spares to mitigate against US disapproval in case such a scenario arises needs to be factored it before such a decision is taken.
The downside is that the LCA - MK2 , as & when it comes will be inducted in reduced nos.
