Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Bheemsen]

Some news


.

This whole rafale fiasco is going towards insanity , should be stopped asap and other options to be explored.
Rafale as it is too much overpriced and will put huge dent to national economics and defense budget.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

++++
Some information on Source based news on Gripen Bid...
++++

• Sweden PM Stefan Lofven had a small talk with PM NaMo when both met in Mumbai for MII inauguration program. Both were joined by Saab CEO Hakan Bushke.
• Saab has offered to partner with an Indian company in a JV with Saab investing 49% to develop on the product line Gripen NG further and finish the product with Indian side inputs and requirements.
• This finished product will commence the final production in India and also plan for a naval variant after that.
• This product will require a full so called 100% Technology transfer from Sweden to India for which Sweden government will allow Saab as well as provide them with taxation relief as they have done for Gripen project
• The technology transfer will be for the product line Gripen NG or Gripen E not for earlier models in any manner.
• PM Lofven and Saab CEO Hakan Bushke has appraised PM NaMo that Indian light fighter requirements is almost 400 and Gripen new product with Indian inputs can parallely supply and meet 50% of this requirement or 200 light fighter jets easily
• Further to this, PM Lofven has said in front of Saab chief Bushke to PM NaMo that Saab will use G2G route to sell of other products in the field of Surveillance, Electronic Warfare systems, and battle management systems for IAF as well as IN plus an added impetus for ICG for coastal security systems.
• Also it was said that Saab already has multiple partnership in India as part of making a pyramid supply chain of ensuring component manufacturing in India to sub assembly level and will expand it further once Saab project of Gripen in India starts to ensure Indian MIC makes everything from component to sub assembly to assembly level things
• These partnership includes renowned names like Pipavav Defence, Bharat Electronics, HAL , Kalyani Strategic Systems and Ashok Leyland. The other smaller players are also there

++
Comments
Clearly if you see Saab is using the magic trick of this figure of ADA

And rehashing it as their idea for MII.

What is interesting is first few lines and this supply chain indicates they essentially want LCA MK2 to be replaced completely with Gripen NG with "sweet words" of designing the product further and finish it with Indian inputs before final production.

it also aims to look at almost 200 units or whatever is 50% of Indian Light fighter jet requirements. It aslo talks with the word "parallel" and trying to say they bring no harm to LCA product line.

Saab also plans for other product sales but via G2G route

A question i am wondering is for meeting fleet strength if Saab offer is really considered then essentially MK2 is game over..

+++

@Abingdonboy @Vauban @Taygibay @anant_s @Dash @raktaka @randomradio @Picdelamirand-oil @cerberus @Ankit Kumar @MilSpec @SpArK @AUSTERLITZ

 

[Ankit Kumar]

Here we need to make tough decisions
1. Are we serious for an Indian Fighter Jet? If yes then simply tell SAAB , thanks but no thanks.
2.And are we serious about providing fighter jets to our airforce without any foreign control ?
3. And last, do we really want foreign technology infusion through the same company whom we buy jets from or we make separate deals and JVs, like JVs with Israel for AESA, Partnering Russia or European nations for engine , etc.

If we are able to answer these 3 questions.... everything is all right.

And for one saying Rafale is very costly, so the fact is so is Eurofighter and so is SH.
Heck even the fly away cost of C/D variant of Gripen is more than 110 million dollars per aircraft without any weapons, training or ToT.

 

[Bheemsen]

++++
Some information on Source based news on Gripen Bid...
++++

• Sweden PM Stefan Lofven had a small talk with PM NaMo when both met in Mumbai for MII inauguration program. Both were joined by Saab CEO Hakan Bushke.
• Saab has offered to partner with an Indian company in a JV with Saab investing 49% to develop on the product line Gripen NG further and finish the product with Indian side inputs and requirements.
• This finished product will commence the final production in India and also plan for a naval variant after that.
• This product will require a full so called 100% Technology transfer from Sweden to India for which Sweden government will allow Saab as well as provide them with taxation relief as they have done for Gripen project
• The technology transfer will be for the product line Gripen NG or Gripen E not for earlier models in any manner.
• PM Lofven and Saab CEO Hakan Bushke has appraised PM NaMo that Indian light fighter requirements is almost 400 and Gripen new product with Indian inputs can parallely supply and meet 50% of this requirement or 200 light fighter jets easily
• Further to this, PM Lofven has said in front of Saab chief Bushke to PM NaMo that Saab will use G2G route to sell of other products in the field of Surveillance, Electronic Warfare systems, and battle management systems for IAF as well as IN plus an added impetus for ICG for coastal security systems.
• Also it was said that Saab already has multiple partnership in India as part of making a pyramid supply chain of ensuring component manufacturing in India to sub assembly level and will expand it further once Saab project of Gripen in India starts to ensure Indian MIC makes everything from component to sub assembly to assembly level things
• These partnership includes renowned names like Pipavav Defence, Bharat Electronics, HAL , Kalyani Strategic Systems and Ashok Leyland. The other smaller players are also there

++
Comments
Clearly if you see Saab is using the magic trick of this figure of ADA

And rehashing it as their idea for MII.

What is interesting is first few lines and this supply chain indicates they essentially want LCA MK2 to be replaced completely with Gripen NG with "sweet words" of designing the product further and finish it with Indian inputs before final production.

it also aims to look at almost 200 units or whatever is 50% of Indian Light fighter jet requirements. It aslo talks with the word "parallel" and trying to say they bring no harm to LCA product line.

Saab also plans for other product sales but via G2G route

A question i am wondering is for meeting fleet strength if Saab offer is really considered then essentially MK2 is game over..

+++

@Abingdonboy @Vauban @Taygibay @anant_s @Dash @raktaka @randomradio @Picdelamirand-oil @cerberus @Ankit Kumar @MilSpec @SpArK @AUSTERLITZ

Gripen will never be inducted in IAF with LCA program maturing this is strict no go , F18SH or rafale only fit the bill

 

[GURU DUTT]

Some news

Budget 2016: Rafale jet deal unlikely in current fiscal
The wait for the 36 Rafale combat aircraft is going to get longer due to budgetary constraints and the delay in concluding negotiations with French company Dassault.

By: Huma Siddiqui | New Delhi | February 19, 2016 12:46 AM

The wait for the 36 Rafale combat aircraft is going to get longer due to budgetary constraints and the delay in concluding negotiations with French company Dassault.

According to sources in the ministry of defence, though the negotiations with Dassault have been put on fast track, the deal is not expected to be cleared during this fiscal.

Speaking to FE on conditions of anonymity, an officer who has been part of the negotiating team, said, “The negotiations with the French company are on track. But there are several other agencies involved in this pact and it will take another few months before the negotiations are complete, which means the deal will not be done this fiscal ended March 2016.”

The sources have indicated despite PMO’s push for this deal, the cost of the combat machines which has gone up since the last negotiations and issuance of RFP in 2009, Indian side is expecting that through negotiations it will manage to strike a deal at $ 7 bn for 36 fighter jets.

It is uncertain if the contract would be signed within the current fiscal even if negotiations were completed by late next month and all issues relating to technology transfer from Dassault were taken care of and papers readied before March 30.

Apart from the lengthy process, other factors that might impact the much-awaited deal include government’s several social programmes, implementation of the 7th pay commission recommendations and the OROP arrears.

According to official sources, the negotiations have dragged on for so long due to issues related to 50% offsets requirement and transfer of technology. The French, it appears, are unwilling to transfer technology such as that of the electronically scanned AESA radar, citing lack of maturity of the Indian defence industry to absorb critical technologies.

The final cost has come to about 2-3% more as it will be a government-to-government deal, defence minister Manohar Parrikar has expressed hope that the price of one Rafale jet will be 25% less. The deal could cost India close to $8 billion, which includes the cost of 36 fighter jets in fly-away condition.


“We are still in the process of deciding whether there is a need to order of all spare parts that the aircraft will need for a period of either five or ten years. And the negotiations are still on what kind of financial penalties can be imposed on Dassault Aviation Company which is making the combat plane if the performance was unsatisfactory,” the sources told FE.
Budget 2016: Rafale jet deal unlikely in current fiscal | The Financial Express
++

Comments

• Signing can be done as I have said payment can be in March end or in April meaning next fiscal
• This is in spite of almost $ 6 Bn being available under un-utilised funds as per various news reports in last fortnight
• I had commented that Price negotiations wlll see an approximate Euro 700Mn more cut to Euro 8 Bn and finally around Eur 7.3 Bn or USD 7.89Bn and article talks about costing USD 8 Mn
• Technology transfer seems to be a myth here as under DPP 2016 Its manufacturing line and credible TOT for identified projects like LCA
• Perhaps this technology for AESA is more about negotiations for RBE2 AESA radar or a variant to AMCA talks
• I have said before that AMCA will have many tech derived from both Rafale and FGFA. Recall also that i informed here that NSA Ajit Doval was in Paris before Prez Hollande visit to talk about many "strategic" things including such negotiations.
• Interestingly the all inclusive price of the package its USD 8 Bn implies at current USD/INR of 68.728 its approximately INR 55000, again i have said its approx below 56000 Crs
• If i say divide at say 45-50% Jets+Weapons. 45% all support+infra+spares+etc and 10% customization the jets are still at approx 700-750 Crs with weapons loaded
• This is in line with what i have said about India wanting Jets+weapons at below Rs 800 Crs and are looking closer to Rs 700 Crs via negotiations. Thats approx Euro 93 Mn or USD 100 Mn mark which i have said all along and given a figure of Euro 3.6 Bn (jets +weapons) and negotiating more on that.

@Abingdonboy @MilSpec @anant_s @Vauban @Taygibay @Picdelamirand-oil @others

I am still saying there would be lots of paid media articles to showcase that rafale deal is costly and rafale deal is not correct and what not... Strong brainwashing my Saab, Boeing and LM as part of their marketing blitz and muscle flexing..

I said in another thread DM MP is trying to dole out carrot and stick strategy for US MIC for the F16 deal with our neighbor and trying to "bluff" his way through a PR exercise.

If this article is true and as with source based news i gave before this may be point to the true valuation of Rafale Deal...

We are getting a good deal from France and anything below USD 100 or Euro 93 Mn for jets+weapons is a steal.. I hope the country sees the truth if whatever i have said and report like this and Dinakar Peri from Hindu also has said the same thing and we stop chasing other aircrafts and make most of what we have in front of us..

I am waiting for IN confirmation of Rafale M requirements.. Judging from the source based talks, IN has indicated 4 tranches of purchase so far.. Each tranch is approximated around 55-60 Jets totalling approx 200+ over next 2 decades.
Oh a side news, IN wants minimum two bigger carriers for approx 55-60 jets and both they want before completion of 2027-2042 naval modernization plan timeline ending. So 110+ requirements are coming from carriers needs alone and rest from enhanced operations which IN wants to take including taking over shore based patrolling jointly with IAF or alone. Also some discussion are under way for boosting A&N command center in a big way with multi squadron placement there with force multipliers and a SAM shield (both MR and LR variants).

Will wait for more news from source and in public domain to let you all know..

apart from what paid media traders and there presstitutes got to say on rafale facts are :

1.Rafale is the best 4.5+ gen fighter out there

2.Rafale is way too costly and india just might not buy it

3.SAAB has gone all out to make grippen deal

4.Sensing a kill both LM (F16) and Boeing (SuperHornet) have also made a very good offer

5.meaning niether SAAB or Dassult & LM gonna make it cause IAF wants a twin engined medium weight and range fighter for MRCA with SEAD & DEAD in mind and nothing comes close to FA-18 EF/Grolwer for this job


Meaning clear winner is Boeing with super hornets and growlers ... baaki lagge raho

 

[raktaka]

++++
Some information on Source based news on Gripen Bid...
++++

• Sweden PM Stefan Lofven had a small talk with PM NaMo when both met in Mumbai for MII inauguration program. Both were joined by Saab CEO Hakan Bushke.
• Saab has offered to partner with an Indian company in a JV with Saab investing 49% to develop on the product line Gripen NG further and finish the product with Indian side inputs and requirements.
• This finished product will commence the final production in India and also plan for a naval variant after that.
• This product will require a full so called 100% Technology transfer from Sweden to India for which Sweden government will allow Saab as well as provide them with taxation relief as they have done for Gripen project
• The technology transfer will be for the product line Gripen NG or Gripen E not for earlier models in any manner.
• PM Lofven and Saab CEO Hakan Bushke has appraised PM NaMo that Indian light fighter requirements is almost 400 and Gripen new product with Indian inputs can parallely supply and meet 50% of this requirement or 200 light fighter jets easily
• Further to this, PM Lofven has said in front of Saab chief Bushke to PM NaMo that Saab will use G2G route to sell of other products in the field of Surveillance, Electronic Warfare systems, and battle management systems for IAF as well as IN plus an added impetus for ICG for coastal security systems.
• Also it was said that Saab already has multiple partnership in India as part of making a pyramid supply chain of ensuring component manufacturing in India to sub assembly level and will expand it further once Saab project of Gripen in India starts to ensure Indian MIC makes everything from component to sub assembly to assembly level things
• These partnership includes renowned names like Pipavav Defence, Bharat Electronics, HAL , Kalyani Strategic Systems and Ashok Leyland. The other smaller players are also there

++
Comments
Clearly if you see Saab is using the magic trick of this figure of ADA

And rehashing it as their idea for MII.

What is interesting is first few lines and this supply chain indicates they essentially want LCA MK2 to be replaced completely with Gripen NG with "sweet words" of designing the product further and finish it with Indian inputs before final production.

it also aims to look at almost 200 units or whatever is 50% of Indian Light fighter jet requirements. It aslo talks with the word "parallel" and trying to say they bring no harm to LCA product line.

Saab also plans for other product sales but via G2G route

A question i am wondering is for meeting fleet strength if Saab offer is really considered then essentially MK2 is game over..

+++

@Abingdonboy @Vauban @Taygibay @anant_s @Dash @raktaka @randomradio @Picdelamirand-oil @cerberus @Ankit Kumar @MilSpec @SpArK @AUSTERLITZ

It is not necessary that LCA Mk2 will be replaced entirely by Grippen. Grippen can be part of LCA Mk2 if the deal is structure properly. Given HAL will have no interest in evolving LCA and ADA will be stuck with it, Grippen and its Ecosystem will bring fresh blood into the program.

However I am not convinced that SAAB can develop an ecosystem in India. I am not sure they themselves have an ecosystem. They depend on US and Europe for their supply chain.

Finally LCA has minimal export potential. However Grippen Made in India has TREMENDOUS export potential.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

It is not necessary that LCA Mk2 will be replaced entirely by Grippen. Grippen can be part of LCA Mk2 if the deal is structure properly. Given HAL will have no interest in evolving LCA and ADA will be stuck with it, Grippen and its Ecosystem will bring fresh blood into the program.

However I am not convinced that SAAB can develop an ecosystem in India. I am not sure they themselves have an ecosystem. They depend on US and Europe for their supply chain.

Finally LCA has minimal export potential. However Grippen Made in India has TREMENDOUS export potential.

That's what Even I thought after hearing what source said.. But I also doubt the ecosystem talks and parallel wordings...

I don't know even know If light fighter potential estimate of 400 and Gripen meeting 50% of it is how far making sense..

Essentially Boeing or Saab all want minimum 200 orders..

I don think such big numbers cut through unless of course MK2 program is delayed by a huge margin and Rafale MII also falls apart..

Sadly everybody is just jumping on one bluff of DM MP

 

[GURU DUTT]

That's what Even I thought after hearing what source said.. But I also doubt the ecosystem talks and parallel wordings...

I don't know even know If light fighter potential estimate of 400 and Gripen meeting 50% of it is how far making sense..

Essentially Boeing or Saab all want minimum 200 orders..

I don think such big numbers cut through unless of course MK2 program is delayed by a huge margin and Rafale MII also falls apart..

Sadly everybody is just jumping on one bluff of DM MP

there is no use left of MK2 if it arrives post 2020 better go with AMCA & PAKFA and for the time bieng go for super hornets and MK1A as they share same enigens and radar

 

[Perpendicular]

++++

A question i am wondering is for meeting fleet strength if Saab offer is really considered then essentially MK2 is game over..

+++

[[/USER]

Then we will loose not one but two of our programs i.e LCA MKII followed by AMCA. If we replaced the light fighter requirement from outside.
Two possibilities that i can think of
1. Either we have decided that IAF and IN will eventually go for Rafales with big numbers, while using Boeing, saab and others as pressure tactics.
2. Or we have made up our mind for 36 Rafales only and looking for an alternate twin engine "Make in India" plane that can fit into IN requirements also.

Or F35 comes into picture somehow.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Then we will loose not one but two of our programs i.e LCA MKII followed by AMCA. If we replaced the light fighter requirement from outside.
Two possibilities that i can think of
1. Either we have decided that IAF and IN will eventually go for Rafales with big numbers, while using Boeing, saab and others as pressure tactics.
2. Or we have made up our mind for 36 Rafales only and looking for an alternate twin engine "Make in India" plane that can fit into IN requirements also.

Or F35 comes into picture somehow.

What you are saying is what is in my mind too especially the first point.. A bluff and a pressure tactic

The second point I had pasted here in Jan 29th 2016 here

Political will discussion

• India will finally say what the final price expectation for just 36 jets
• If its good enough 18 follow on will be sealed.
• If the costs and offsets and plan for MII is seriously agreed in the form of offset implementation then GOI will agree for Rafale deal for a total of 200+ in MII.
• If there is no mutual agreement, political will is being made to KILL RAFALE DEAL PERMANENTLY.

Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 110


The very next post had few very good lines from my good friend @Abingdonboy

Both India and France are going to look spectacuarly foolish if their relationship collapses now with so much new found momentum being built up. I just don't see it happening if I am honest- both sides and both leaders have far too much invested in the relationship for such an implosion to take place now.

I just can't shake the feeling that France has this in the bag- Dassault just needs to get in line and surely the French Government has enough control over it to make it so?

The F35 coming into picture is way too forward as the platform as of today is not fully matured.. I dont think IAF or IN would be interested atm but perhaps a decade or 15 years later based on some feedback and assessment when they take them on in bilateral exercises, the opinions may change.. For F35 to come to party, its way way too early..

+++

 

[raktaka]

That's what Even I thought after hearing what source said.. But I also doubt the ecosystem talks and parallel wordings...

I don't know even know If light fighter potential estimate of 400 and Gripen meeting 50% of it is how far making sense..

Essentially Boeing or Saab all want minimum 200 orders..

I don think such big numbers cut through unless of course MK2 program is delayed by a huge margin and Rafale MII also falls apart..

Sadly everybody is just jumping on one bluff of DM MP

With India backing SAAB, Grippen can touch the 200 aircraft target by international sales. IAF will not be its sole customer. Much will depend on how the Indian economy grows in the next 5 years.

DM MP has kept an open mind. One can hardly call that a "bluff".

 

[Taygibay]

So fine, as per news, SAAB will halve the numbers of lighter jets with LCA
and many if not most Indians seem to be OK with that from judging this thread!

That from the article posted by Parik #2420 :

• Saab has offered to partner with an Indian company in a JV with Saab investing 49% to develop on the product line Gripen NG further and finish the product with Indian side inputs and requirements.

• This finished product will commence the final production in India and also plan for a naval variant after that.

doesn't say a production line in so many words but let's suppose it does since
the rest of the piece details a supply chain.

Do you guys realize that the Gripen NG will already have a prod line in Brazil?
That it had a prod line in Sweden last I checked. That it could loose that one ...
and end up with 2 production lines outsourced is beyond me but they're Swedes
known for funky ideas so let's say so, why don't they just sell the company as we
heard suggested even for Dassault bought by India by the most exalted fanboys?

But you do get it that what you just bought is a fancy foreign car dealership.
You will learn to make and fix some stuff on that line but not all and not soon.
You will have to import precious parts for years as would have happened anyhow.
Well! Guess what, on Gripen as on F-16, many are US sourced... as on Tejas.

And a dealership implies dealers, it says so in the name. Meet MIC, he sells everything ...
Wouldn't it be simpler to forget strategy altogether & just rub up to your master?
Take the jump and become America's friend to get direct access to the goodies?

Or, you can keep at what you were doing : try your best in-house and buy precisely
what you need to import, from various sources, gaining links and not ties?


Just sayin' Tay.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

TBH i always thought like this

LCA MK1 --- > LCA Mark 1A ---- > LCA Mark 2 ----- > AMCA

I thought thats the evolutionary mechanism from moving from 4 gen to 4.5th gen to finally 5 th Gen

A step by step process of developing the ecosystems and our MIC.

@Taygibay You remember when i said it will take at least a decade based on present LCA program for our MIC to efficiently reach a level of sufficient skill, knowledge and capability based on which we can start utilising such things on our next program

Thus the above is what i have always felt in my mind.. Not saying i am 100% correct of course..

To me Saab or LM/Boeing is one and the same.. and you are correct why would Saab want both Brazil and India to have multiple lines of the same product.. Perhaps they know the capability of either brazil is limited or they are just trying to fish more with enticing Indian line or both lines are just plain assembled lines from kits and the main plant from Sweden and US MIC keeps their end rolling by sending these 2 places "Kits" for localised so called assembly or production..

Edit: I meant based on that ADA diagram of pyramid of pvt sector handling of component manufacturing and semi assembly and assembly level stuff

 

[Perpendicular]

Or, you can keep what you were doing : try your best in-house and buy precisely what you need to import, from various sources, gaining links and not ties?

I think that's the general idea among most.
But at this point in time we are still quite far, even from reaching that level of precision imports. Hence the situation we find ourselves in.

 

[halupridol]

@PARIKRAMA
more confusion here.
according to my source,,negotiations r only for 36(+18optional),,all French made,,no TOT rafale or related tech knowhow for lca/amca,,,,issue is price n configuration.
,further fighter(licence production aka "make in India") acquisitions will be based on some new behind the door GtG deal ,,might not be rafale.
also thr is little to no chance of rafale-m,,,if we want emals,nuclear propulsion thn we will have to go wid American fighters.