Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Bheemsen]

Well Dassualt is offering a very comprehensive ToT package, the superior prodcut and won the MMRCA the first time around and on the other hand Boeing is asking to have complete control over the MII production (so no real industrial benefits to India) and their product lost in the MMRCA on technial grounds so is inferior to the Rafale. Not only that but with the US every high end deal is subject to internal US politics and the Congress has the fnal say on these matters- India can't afford, nor does it want to be, at the whim of them for its critical military kit nor has India signed up for the 3 fundamental agreements (LSA, BECA and CISMOA) which would be conditional with such a purchase.

What exactly makes the F-18 so appealing, am I missing something? Boeing are just trying to muscle their way back into the fray in a typically arrogant American fashion but are offering almost nothing in return other than the "Make in India" headline grabber.

The Rafale/Dassualt offer is the clear favourite if everyone (MoD/PM/DM/Dassualt/Hollande) can get on the same page which seems to be increasingly likely. Let's not forget an IGA on the Rafale sale to India was signed less than a month ago by the two heads of government.


Not sure the demand for the V-22 (in India or abroad) is large enough to justify a new production line and that too in India- ditto with the Apache BUT I think the CH-47 could/should be offered to be made in India. Given the Indian military's and the civlian (see strategic infrastructure projects in the North and NE that have been reciving a MAJOR thrust recently) needs there should be sufficent demand in India to justify it and there is still a very healthy export market for the Chinook.

Boeing has upgraded F18 Sh product from last MMRCA competition, with conformal tanks, internal weapons bay , AESA , Better engines and many more , its coming at half price of french bird and what TOT benefit has mki provided to DRDO or HAL who cant even make a decent LCA or IJT on time.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

@Ankit Kumar
The paper plane date for first flight is out..

Its even claiming to be first fighter in the world to field Meteor

@Vauban @Taygibay @Abingdonboy @Picdelamirand-oil @randomradio @Dash @raktaka

 

[Abingdonboy]

F18 Sh has upgraded the product from last MMRCA competition, with conformal tanks, internal weapons bay , AESA , Better engines and many more

On paper sure.

They lost out, end of story- if they had offered a superior product in the first place they would not be having to try and force their way back into the fray now.

its coming at half price of french bird

You can't know that, no one outside of offcials in France and India know the true price of the Rafale being offered to India and what the true cost of a Made in India F-18SH will be is also open to speculation especially considering that the "Silent Hornet" is not even in production as of yet but remains a promise- like the Gripen NG.

and what TOT benefit has mki provided to DRDO or HAL who cant even make a decent LCA or IJT on time.

That's irrelevent. HAL still has soveriegn control over its production line, has IPR associated with the MKI and the IAF has complete accsess to every element of their birds. Boeing wants to control it all and as would be typical with US high-end products, they would come with a whole swathe of restrictive end-user agreements that only allow their representitves to conduct intensive work on the birds that would mean digitally sealed "off limits" sections/components of the IAF's own birds that tehy cannot go near- as the Pakistanis and Turks about their experience.This isn't acceptable and the breach in soveriegnty would not justify the very marginal cost savings (if any at all exist) that would be further compounded by being forced to sign CISMOA, LSA and BECA. I'm not neccesarily opposed to them but I think if India is going to sign them it should be because the GoI/MoD has taken an objective decsion that they offer benefits to India- it shouldn't be forced on India as a conditon for purchasing American tech.

And then, do you want to be held hostage to the US Congress for the remaining service life of these birds? 30-40 years is a long time, a lot can change geopolitcally and internally in the US, look at the drama Pakistan has to go through just to get 8 F-16s, do you want that for India?

@Ankit Kumar
The paper plane date for first flight is out..

Its even claiming to be first fighter in the world to field Meteor

@Vauban @Taygibay @Abingdonboy @Picdelamirand-oil @randomradio @Dash @raktaka

 

[surya kiran]

Boeing has upgraded F18 Sh product from last MMRCA competition, with conformal tanks, internal weapons bay , AESA , Better engines and many more , its coming at half price of french bird and what TOT benefit has mki provided to DRDO or HAL who cant even make a decent LCA or IJT on time.

For one, the MMRCA is dead. Secondly, the requirement for Su-30 and the requirement for the current one are separate. Thirdly, why should they be given 100% ownership when the others are ready to invest the money back in to Indian companies? This logic fails me. Yes, it was a good product. 15 years back.

Add to this the fact, that its an American product, with total 100% ownership by Americans. Which by the way means, they will shut shop if the American goverment, which is not exactly the best strategic partner to have, decides one fine day to do so.

On the point of the LCA, it is now flying. It has to be improved further. Get the Mk1A up. Order it in numbers and evolve it. Youngsters have been trained now and the know how to develop aircraft has been created. The last thing we should be doing is, make the same mistake we did with the Marut.

LCA, Rafale, Su-30 giving way to Mk2, AMCA and FGFA. This has to be solidified and taken forward.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

@Ankit Kumar
The paper plane date for first flight is out..

Its even claiming to be first fighter in the world to field Meteor

@Vauban @Taygibay @Abingdonboy @Picdelamirand-oil @randomradio @Dash @raktaka

Oh, I hope they stick to schedules.
Yes, they earlier too claimed about that Meteor, but I think that's not possible.
If they actually manage to start executing the orders, only concern will be its price.

Meanwhile , I see more delay

https://twitter.com/x/status/700265730781159424

 

[Bheemsen]

For one, the MMRCA is dead. Secondly, the requirement for Su-30 and the requirement for the current one are separate. Thirdly, why should they be given 100% ownership when the others are ready to invest the money back in to Indian companies? This logic fails me. Yes, it was a good product. 15 years back.

Add to this the fact, that its an American product, with total 100% ownership by Americans. Which by the way means, they will shut shop if the American goverment, which is not exactly the best strategic partner to have, decides one fine day to do so.

On the point of the LCA, it is now flying. It has to be improved further. Get the Mk1A up. Order it in numbers and evolve it. Youngsters have been trained now and the know how to develop aircraft has been created. The last thing we should be doing is, make the same mistake we did with the Marut.

LCA, Rafale, Su-30 giving way to Mk2, AMCA and FGFA. This has to be solidified and taken forward.

Even for fuddu LCA if US stops supply of engines its a dud

 

[surya kiran]

engines

Hence the need to keep evolving and replacing foreign components with Indian ones. If we stop now, then we will need to restart all over again. Exactly what we did with the Marut. The F-16 btw when it came up was very berated. Just like the F-35 is being done now. We all know, what it is today.

The only way to setup our own sanction proof plane is to build it in house. We may outsource parts of it, but have the ability to build all parts over a period of time. The Boeing deal is a win win for Boeing. For us, the Rafale suits much better.

 

[raktaka]

Oh, I hope they stick to schedules.
Yes, they earlier too claimed about that Meteor, but I think that's not possible.
If they actually manage to start executing the orders, only concern will be its price.

Meanwhile , I see more delay

https://twitter.com/x/status/700265730781159424

I think IAF/MoD is buying additional Su30MKI directly from Russia due to the fall of rouble making the Su 30MKI really cheap. Can anyone confirm ? If so, what will be the new price based on current Rouble price ?

 

[randomradio]

Thats a false assumption...Any Indian private sector will pick it up. And LCA mk2 does have export potential.

Not a chance. There is no big player to hold their hands. HAL will be their direct competitor, so no chance from there either. All the private players in the country want their hands held by an experienced jet maker and they want assured orders, including exports.

If given a chance between LCA and a foreign fighter, they will pick the foreign fighter. If given a chance between LCA and making components for the foreign fighter as a Tier 1 supplier, they will pick the foreign fighter.

The only way they will pick LCA is if they are allowed to have their hands held by a foreign maker on a foreign aircraft for 10 years before they build an ecosystem for investing in aerospace in the country as a direct competitor to HAL. Today, there is not a single private company in India that is in any shape to compete with HAL. They will get steamrolled.

I think IAF/MoD is buying additional Su30MKI directly from Russia due to the fall of rouble making the Su 30MKI really cheap. Can anyone confirm ? If so, what will be the new price based on current Rouble price ?

We can't guess, but Su-35 is going for $15M now.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Even for fuddu LCA if US stops supply of engines its a dud

Then the EJ-2000 would be fitted then- that engine was found to be compatible with the LCA's requirements but RR lost to GE on cost analysis.

You can swap out components if the worst happens (sanctions) but there won't be any alternatives when your entire jet is American (and made under full American MNC control) from the radar, engine, avionics, mission systems etc- in that situation you are......(add expletive here).

@PARIKRAMA is right that this is a strategic purchase and France has proven itself worthy of India's trust to have their frontline fighter business- the US has in no way done so and likely never will. From a strategic perspective the Rafale makes a lot more sense than the F-18, not only would the Indian entity retain sovereign control, ToT would be tanigble, IAF would have complete control on their own assets and there would be scope to customise as required. Going through the US congress for every new military system you might want to procure to support your fighter or having to seek Congressional to upgrade/customise your own assets is not what a future global power and one looking to maintain its strategic autonomy should seek.

France, on the most part, sees India as an equal- there is no way the US will ever do so, their entire military procurement system is deisgned to retain American control on their products and dictate their use which is fine for transports and Helicopters but not for fighter aircraft that could potentially be your nuclear delivery assets.

What conditions has France ever imposed on India in order to procure one of tis products? None. The US on the other hand, stripped its products of certain equipment as India refused to sign CISMOA and if you think the F-18 (an offensive military asset) would not be sold to India on the condition it sign the BECA, CISMOA and LSA then you are dleuding yourself.


Add it all up and the F-18 is in no way a justifiable purchase- Boeing (and the USG) are trying to strong arm India but are offering almost nothing in return that would vindicate such a comprimise in sovereignty.

I think IAF/MoD is buying additional Su30MKI directly from Russia due to the fall of rouble making the Su 30MKI really cheap. Can anyone confirm ? If so, what will be the new price based on current Rouble price ?

I'm not sure on this, from what I understand Indo-Russian deals have always been conducted in USD and not Rubles.

IMO, any off the shelf purchase of MKIs is being sought purely to expedite the induction process as if follow-ons were made in India htey wouldn't enter IAF service before 2021 and the last (of the 40) would only be in service by 2023/4.


As we've been discussing, the IAF's fighter stream is in an emergency conditon and multiple steps are going to have to be taken across multiple platforms to address this- there is no quick or easy or solitary solution, it is going to have to be a combination of measures taken between now and 2020 in order to turn this abysmal situation around.

Not a chance. There is no big player to hold their hands. HAL will be their direct competitor, so no chance from there either. All the private players in the country want their hands held by an experienced jet maker and they want assured orders, including exports.

If given a chance between LCA and a foreign fighter, they will pick the foreign fighter. If given a chance between LCA and making components for the foreign fighter as a Tier 1 supplier, they will pick the foreign fighter.

The only way they will pick LCA is if they are allowed to have their hands held by a foreign maker on a foreign aircraft for 10 years before they build an ecosystem for investing in aerospace in the country as a direct competitor to HAL. Today, there is not a single private company in India that is in any shape to compete with HAL. They will get steamrolled.

You make a very good point here, HAL has got to where it is after decades of investment and accumulated experience, it didn't happen overnight so we can't just expect an Indian private player to get to the same level without a huge amount of "hand holding" and the most pertinent point is HAL is not compelled to be that partner as they would be direct competitors. There isn't really any way around this reality other than for the MoD/GoI to force HAL/ADA to assist the private player but this would be frought with challenges,resistence and would ultimately lead to sub-optimial results.

@Water Car Engineer @MilSpec @PARIKRAMA @anant_s some food for thought- as much as we want a private sector LCA production line, how exactly can that be implemented?

 

[Bheemsen]

Looks like too many Rafale fanboys here . rafale deal will bankrupt the nation leaving nothing left to buy anything else from defense budget , a bad choice.

 

[anant_s]

all i can say is DM has set cat amongst pigeons with his statement. if true he has not only put a question mark on Rafale but LCA mark 2 as well.
i think best course of action right now is to strike a deal with Dassault and design LCA version around Snecma M 88 with Israeli avionics.
@PARIKRAMA probably has best view of situation and what really is happening but why rather than consolidation, we are looking to buy multiple platform is baffling.

 

[randomradio]

Looks like too many Rafale fanboys here . rafale deal will bankrupt the nation leaving nothing left to buy anything else from defense budget , a bad choice.

The acquisition cost of a Rafale was $120M in MMRCA. Now, it's about 20% lesser. The flyaway cost is about $80-85M now. We can't afford Rafale?

What about FGFA which is expected to cost $225M flyaway, that's $80M more than the F-22?

 

[PARIKRAMA]

@Water Car Engineer @MilSpec @PARIKRAMA @anant_s some food for thought- as much as we want a private sector LCA production line, how exactly can that be implemented?

You see what sources said was DM MP wanted MK2 after MK1A production is over.. In all practical Sense I see few things here

1. LCA story will perhaps remain with HAL only
2. The private sector participation at best will come at component manufacturing to sub assemblies perhaps and to some extent assemblies as per ADA supply chain planning
3. This implies the HAL model may evolve from doing end to end work for LCA production to perhaps into an Integrator role with assemblies and lower tier of pyramid being a fully privatised supply chain.
4. In essence the jet assembling kind of directly proportional to supply chain capability of delivering the same to main assembling and integration

If you see MII stoy, the idea is about skill and technology development for such in house capability within our country for an ability to manufacture components.

For me a whole line of LCA in private sector is too lavish as returns are not directly proportional to the investment. Owing to the fact that most parts of high economic value is non indigenous. Thus, the margins won't be that attractive for such a business. But if such components of high economic value start getting made via a JV or technology transfer to local private sector suddenly with cheap Indian human capital cost, the margins starts to look attractive coupled with a guaranteed demand.

The private company to become a integrator or a role like that requires a senior partner to do what we call as "grand fathering" approach..

It's difficult to expect HAL to do such a thing yet at best they can be a advisors.. You will require a global major to do so since they have done a similar thing.. An example is Dassault themselves.. They have over 600 supply chain OEMs who make components to sub assemblies and finally DA takes over the assembling and integration role. This they can teach and guide it based on experience.

HAL has to reach a similar level of experience with a supply chain like that to do grandfathering..

Of course it's my personal opinion.. Not necessary that HAL can't surprise us with such a possibility

 

[Abingdonboy]

Looks like too many Rafale fanboys here . rafale deal will bankrupt the nation leaving nothing left to buy anything else from defense budget , a bad choice.

Oh really? 200 (+/- 50) Rafales being bought to serve for 40 years with a 10+ year pay back period that will highly skill thousands of workers, will come with a 50% offset clause and create a entirely new and profitable eco system in India involving hundreds of SMEs will bankrupt a nation whose GDP exceeds $2 Trillion USD and who returns >$3 Billions USD every year in unspent funds from its defence budget? Cool story.

By the time India makes the last payment on these Rafales it will be the 3rd largest economy in the world, by the time the last Rafale is phased out of IAF service India will be the largest or second largest economy in the world with a GDP (PPP) of >$40 Trillion USD.

Forgetting about that. Between 2014 and 2022 the IAF alone will have around $100BN to spend purely on CAPEX and they are still returning vast amounts each year in unspent funds.


The budget constraints the Rafale will cause are the last resort to bash the Rafale but are entirely unfounded as, not only is there ample CAPEX for any such purchase but any perceived premium paid for the Rafale will easily be offset in OPEX savings over the course of the Rafale fleet's 35-40 year old lifespan.

all i can say is DM has set cat amongst pigeons with his statement.

As he seems to do everytime he opens his mouth