Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Bheemsen]

Oh really? 200 (+/- 5) Rafales being bought to serve for 40 years with a 10+ year pay back period that will highly skill thousands of workers, will come with a 50% offset clause and create a entirely new and profitable eco system in India involving hundreds of SMEs will bankrupt a nation whose GDP exceeds $2 Trillion USD and who returns >$3 Billions USD every year in unspent funds from its defence budget? Cool story.

By the time India makes the last payment on these Rafales it will be the 3rd largest economy in the world, by the time the last Rafale is phased out of IAF service India will be the largest or second largest economy in the world with a GDP (PPP) of >$40 Trillion USD.

Forgetting about that. Between 2014 and 2022 the IAF alone will have aorund $100BN to spend purely on CAPEX and they are still returning vast amounts each year in unspent funds.


The budget constraints the Rafale will cause are the last resort to bash the Rafale but are entirely unfounded as, not only is there ample CAPEX for any such purchase but any perceived premium paid for the Rafale will easily be offset in OPEX savings over the course of the Rafale fleet's 35-40 year old lifespan.


As he seems to do everytime he opens his mouth

Please wake up , too much daydreaming not good for health

 

[Abingdonboy]

Please wake up , too much daydreaming not good for health

I present you with empirical facts that you can validate for yourself and this represents "daydreaming" to you?

What element seems like it is exaggerated or unrealistic to you?

 

[Ankit Kumar]

What to understand with this wrt the 2nd private production line ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/700298795867705345

@PARIKRAMA seems IN has said a solid NO

https://twitter.com/x/status/700183838757007360

 

[Abingdonboy]

You see what sources said was DM MP wanted MK2 after MK1A production is over.. In all practical Sense I see few things here

1. LCA story will perhaps remain with HAL only
2. The private sector participation at best will come at component manufacturing to sub assemblies perhaps and to some extent assemblies as per ADA supply chain planning
3. This implies the HAL model may evolve from doing end to end work for LCA production to perhaps into an Integrator role with assemblies and lower tier of pyramid being a fully privatised supply chain.
4. In essence the jet assembling kind of directly proportional to supply chain capability of delivering the same to main assembling and integration

If you see MII stoy, the idea is about skill and technology development for such in house capability within our country for an ability to manufacture components.

For me a whole line of LCA in private sector is too lavish as returns are not directly proportional to the investment. Owing to the fact that most parts of high economic value is non indigenous. Thus, the margins won't be that attractive for such a business. But if such components of high economic value start getting made via a JV or technology transfer to local private sector suddenly with cheap Indian human capital cost, the margins starts to look attractive coupled with a guaranteed demand.

The private company to become a integrator or a role like that requires a senior partner to do what we call as "grand fathering" approach..

It's difficult to expect HAL to do such a thing yet at best they can be a advisors.. You will require a global major to do so since they have done a similar thing.. An example is Dassault themselves.. They have over 600 supply chain OEMs who make components to sub assemblies and finally DA takes over the assembling and integration role. This they can teach and guide it based on experience.

HAL has to reach a similar level of experience with a supply chain like that to do grandfathering..

Of course it's my personal opinion.. Not necessary that HAL can't surprise us with such a possibility

You make some very solid points bro.

Your point about HAL transforming from a end to end producer to more of a lead intergrator with private players providing sub-assemblies to HAL seems to be the way things are going and if you remember that pyramid diagram has already been outlined. We will have to see how this works out as it could fix many of the issues we talk of when criticising HAL, my only hope is that HAL sets more ambitious production targets- even 16 LCA/year is too modest and for ALHs they should be looking at >60 to now also cater for Rudra orders (to be fair to them- their target for LUHs at 60/year is very impressive and I'll be more than happy to see it become a reality) and LCHs should be produced 30/year. Much of the issues now faced have migrated from the R&D/quality side to purely being as a result of limited productive capacity. It has taken HAL until 2-3 years ago to produce the MKI at a respectible level (16+).


For the private sector to get their own role as lead intergrator, they will need to be involved as a partner from day one, hopefully the AMCA will have more stakeholders than just the IAF/IN, ADA and HAL- 1-2 private sector giants pitching in with their own efforts would be much appreciated and will allow for a more efficent distribution of labour playing to the strengths of all parties.


The private sector definetly have the scope for being a end to end producer also but they need to build up their capacities/experience with other projects like helos and transports (C-295 namely). This is why I was very disappointed in the decsion regarding Ka-226T production. If I was the DM/PM I would pool all 10+ ton Helo requirements of the IA, IAF, ICG and IN right now give it to Airbus Military (for the EC-725) to rope in an Indian partner to make the vast requirement (200++) in India with full ToT. The eco-system and infrastructure this would give to the Indian partner would be immense. They could leverage this expereince for bigger and better things down the line.

@PARIKRAMA seems IN has said a solid NO
Carrier-based Sea Gripen now firm part of Saab's future "will be a new product portfolio". Initially aimed at Brazilian Navy. #SGAirshow— Tim Robinson (@RAeSTimR) February 18, 2016

I don't think the IN ever really contemplated it- they aren't interested in small, single engined, carrier fighters and they have the N-LCA nonetheless.

SAAB would be pushing their luck (more than they already are) by offically stating that the IN was a possible candidate for the Sea Gripen.

What to understand with this wrt the 2nd private production line ?

India's relationship with the United States will not be affected after the US decision to sell F-16 jet fighters to Pakistan: @MEAIndia— All India Radio News (@airnewsalerts) February 18, 2016

No relation whatsoever to the 2nd private production line in India but a clarifying of India's postion after it had summoned the US ambassader and shown its displeasure at the State Department's decsion to greenlight the subsidised sale.

 

[Taygibay]

If you simply go by the earlier MMRCA deal and the current IN requirement, it is 126+54 minimum.

LOL I chose that very first option of yours for coincidence reasons that reveal something whimsical :

The present GtG deal calls in its options at signing and Parrikar announces those 54 ...
to be all M models for the IN!!!
He turns to IAF and says that they've been a pain in the zaz and will get HAL's Tejas at
whatever rate it may or may not come out and that's it!
Then SAAB gets a 100 unit line working with TATA, just enough to kill the LCA!!!
And a week later, a sub-committee floats to MiG & Boeing the possibility to be selected
as a team to provide inputs on the AMCA.

Could happen! It's India after all!
JK!

The information came from a French MoD or SAFRAN source to a forum member, and that forum member is a military pro, so... it's not good to break trust.

Yes but if another member has the same information through unprotected informations and/or analysis,
they are wholly entitled to share that. That's a consequence of any dissemination! You have to find the
Snowden ( snitch, whomever outs the confidential matter ) because those below in the chain that just
get their hands on the papers if not identified as secret défense cannot be sued or faulted for their use.
Again, a secret shared is not a secret anymore, likely never was! True secret numbers do stay secret.
And yes, second or umpteenth hand infos reaching public awareness that way is part of the manipulation
once a govt deems it useful.

Time to ditch Rafale , scrape this deal and put money in F18 SH produced in India and concentrate on LCA

How logical!

Save money by ditching 15 years worth of work ( how does that work? )
then reallocate that to another vilāyati fighter your air force doesn't want
but asking for the max effort to be applied to a local jet it doesn't like that much either?
​

You must really hate the IAF!

Boeing has upgraded F18 Sh product from last MMRCA competition, with conformal tanks, internal weapons bay , AESA , Better engines and many more , its coming at half price of french bird and what TOT benefit has mki provided to DRDO or HAL who cant even make a decent LCA or IJT on time.

Boeing has completed feasability studies with maRquette-ing tools.
The "Silent" SHornet is still what it was and will only move to reality if there is a big buy.
Internal weapons bay for example is a pure sham unless you meant weapons pod.
Don't forget that their most important market, the world's most important market in fact,
is concentrating on a single machine draining it of a little more than all its funding.

Its even claiming to be first fighter in the world to field Meteor

It will be the first actually! Of course, it won't be the best but hey, kudos Sweden anyway!


Now for a bit of serious stuff, please take Armani's contention about Boeing and Lockheed and the MIC.
Do consider that no matter how far away from plans LM's planes are by numbers [ 850-187 ], the US govt
has made them a main partner in most essential ventures. F-22, F-35 but also LCS Freedom-class or all
and any Interception missile system active in America and much more! There is an ongoing centering of
the MIC around that corporation, has been for years.
Regarding mil avia specifically, LockMart is head on F-35, associated to Northrop Grumman on the FA-XX
but associated with ... BOEING on the LRS-B. The objective result is that they make money every time and
slowly push the competition to second tier status, that of helpers if you will.
I don't know if that is a strategic choice by Washington but it is happening!

My own folly caused me to formulate that it's likely that horrid GOP Congress, itself an association of a big more or
less efficient cash-is-no-limit organization with a pesky sub-contractor ( Tip Hearty ), that wants Lock-Mart to continue thus
because it makes their own performance look normal by comparison.
- More cash, less results = SNAFU! Go back to sleep, good people! - or sumthing like that.

Just wondering out loud; don't worry! Only my mischievous side talking, that's all!

Unless ... Tay.​

 

[Bheemsen]

Too many JNU pass out Rafale supporters here , Rafale will be killing defense capital budget for next decade and putting and end to all modernization plans in other areas. French are doing daytime robbery with this bird and costly weapons.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Why I have a sneaky suspicion our def forum is now infiltrated with Saab, Dassault and Boeing lobbyists.. Oh yeah not to forget LCA too...

We need paychecks.. Make it quick pls..and hefty one too.

Whomsoever talks logic and rationale is a day dreamer..

Anything else reclassify among any lobby or fan support base

Too many JNU pass out Rafale supporters here , Rafale will be killing defense capital budget for next decade and putting and end to all modernization plans in other areas. French are doing daytime robbery with this bird and costly weapons.

I find it offensive that you feel we are from JNU..

There is rising intolerance in our country..

I protest..

 

[Abingdonboy]

Too many JNU pass out Rafale supporters here , Rafale will be killing defense capital budget for next decade and putting and end to all modernization plans in other areas. French are doing daytime robbery with this bird and costly weapons.

I've refuted this above and unless you have empiracal evidence to back up this absurd assertion then I suggest you refrain from making such remarks.

 

[surya kiran]

Looks like too many Rafale fanboys here . rafale deal will bankrupt the nation leaving nothing left to buy anything else from defense budget , a bad choice.

If Boeing wants to enter India, tie up with an Indian partner. Like the French are going to for Rafale. Setup the supply chain like the French are. Assure the GoI of zero interference from the USG for complete technology transfer. What is fanboyish in this? Just do what the French are ready to do?

We need to ask, what is in it for us? Not what is in it for Boeing.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Assure the GoI of zero interference from the USG for complete technology transfer.

See, the USG will never able to assure a user of this- rules and regulations govenring the sale of military systems is enshrined in their law, I seriosuly doubt they are going to make an ammendment to them for India. The entire military export system in the US is deisgned to ensure maxium governmental control on where the products are sold, what they are and to whom. The USG/lawmakers will always have complete veto power.

 

[Blue Marlin]

If Boeing wants to enter India, tie up with an Indian partner. Like the French are going to for Rafale. Setup the supply chain like the French are. Assure the GoI of zero interference from the USG for complete technology transfer. What is fanboyish in this? Just do what the French are ready to do?

We need to ask, what is in it for us? Not what is in it for Boeing.

why on earth would they do that? the f18 production line is dependant on export orders with the pentagon ordering a trickle. they want india to buy the f18 so it an be a similar proposal to the mki's. they bul some and then provide sub sections which is to ensure americain jobs are secure. but if india commits to 200+ then they will move the entire line to india. but the sensitive kit will be made in the usa and shiped to india in sealed containers and must be sent to the usa for maintainance. saab will be the same but it wont come with sencitive kit. the rafaleis anyone guess. i have not heard much of our typhoon. any idea?

 

[Ankit Kumar]

Sometimes the post is so plain stupid that you don't feel like replying.

@PARIKRAMA
If , a big if..... go for SH, do we receive the new AESA?
Also I remember that the new AESA has had its own share of problems in operations.
And how does AN/APG-79 compares to RBE2AA?

 

[Abingdonboy]

Sometimes the post is so plain stupid that you don't feel like replying.

@PARIKRAMA
If , a big if..... go for SH, do we receive the new AESA?
Also I remember that the new AESA has had its own share of problems in operations.
And how does AN/APG-79 compares to RBE2AA?

AESA is mandatory for this procurement and would be coming (IF).....source codes and ToT on the other hand- a big fat NO.

 

[randomradio]

This is why I was very disappointed in the decsion regarding Ka-226T production.

Ka-226 is better than any other light helicopter available for Indian requirements.

If I was the DM/PM I would pool all 10+ ton Helo requirements of the IA, IAF, ICG and IN right now give it to Airbus Military (for the EC-725) to rope in an Indian partner to make the vast requirement (200++) in India with full ToT.

Mi-17 is a much better option.

Instead HAL can make their own 10 ton+ helicopter in the future with Airbus.

LOL I chose that very first option of yours for coincidence reasons that reveal something whimsical :

The present GtG deal calls in its options at signing and Parrikar announces those 54 ...
to be all M models for the IN!!!
He turns to IAF and says that they've been a pain in the zaz and will get HAL's Tejas at
whatever rate it may or may not come out and that's it!
Then SAAB gets a 100 unit line working with TATA, just enough to kill the LCA!!!
And a week later, a sub-committee floats to MiG & Boeing the possibility to be selected
as a team to provide inputs on the AMCA.

Could happen! It's India after all!
JK!

About 6 months ago, I had a similar opinion. IAF will buy 36 F3-04T followed by 36+18 F3R. That will reach their minimum of 80-90 jets. But since then MII program for Rafale has been confirmed, subject to the signature of the first contract for 36.

During that time, the creator of the LSA was waiting for confirmation of LSA from MoD. So that threw us off the actual numbers of Rafale. Because at 54 jets a year, we could easily manage squadrons by 2027.

Too many JNU pass out Rafale supporters here , Rafale will be killing defense capital budget for next decade and putting and end to all modernization plans in other areas. French are doing daytime robbery with this bird and costly weapons.

You have to do the math and show it to us to prove that.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Ka-226 is better than any other light helicopter available for Indian requirements.

Perhaps but the IA/IAF had selected the Fennec intially- it was only through Poltical intervention that the deal was awarded to Kamov. The Fennec will be cheaper to operate most likely.

I was mostly disappointed not with the selection itself- the Ka-226T is fine, but that Kamov selected HAL, and not an Indian private player, to make the birds in India.

Mi-17 is a much better option.

MI-17 is not suitable for the IN or ICG and, according to Aribus, the IA is looking at the EC-725.

The Mi-17 is good for what it is (cheap) but it falls short in many qualatative requirements such as not having a dual-channel hydrulics control system (which has serious flight safety implications). There is a reason the Mi-17 was rejected from the IAF's VVIP procurement.

Instead HAL can make their own 10 ton+ helicopter in the future with Airbus.

Will take 10+ years to enter service and as of yet HAL are not actively pursueing this (but they have plans-IMRH).


@PARIKRAMA @Taygibay @anant_s