Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Abingdonboy]

I did argue the Mark2 case of LCA with my source and he spilled some more which i had not posted before...

Well seems in a review of LCA progress DM MP asked few pointed questions. This meeting was chaired by multiple teams not only just HAL.

The main point asked by DM MP was after LCA Mark1A test flight and handover for production, how long will the whole team take to come out with Mark 2. Members seems to have suggested that a committee be formed to evaluate the timelines and manpower requirements for the additional line requirement.

DM MP cut them short and said in 6 years at 16 jets a year this order is finished so after Mark 2 should start production from the same line without any downtime. The members still suggested they require a more detailed view and committee to be formed for assessing the realistic dates and plan to be presented to DM.

They suggested that a new jet requires far more testing from prototype phase and thus requires thorough analysis by a committee.
.
DM MP then seems to have asked how long will the committee take to submit the report which people replied about a year.

DM MP did not say anything on this after all this discussion.

This is as per source and i did nt put that in original post owing to the fact that within a week after that Saab people had sent feelers to DM MP via a specific BJP CM that Gripen NG can be produced in 3 years from now under MII and can take care of LCA Mark 2 needs with Indian specific customization. In short Indian side requirements could be met outright and Mark 2 project can be put aside.

DM MP has still not made any decision and is consulting some other senior members (PM NaMo and FM AJ) on this..

So I refrained from posting it here previously.

IMHO it doesn't change anything. Naturally SAAB can begin production in India sooner than the MK.2 but does that make it worth selling the Indian aerospace industry down the river? MK.1A prodcution should be complete by 2023/4 (7-8 years from now) which should be enough to get the MK.2 off the drawing board and close to induction, if there is a delay in that process a few more SQNs of MK.1A can be produced.

My points above (post 2098) remain valid:
Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 140


For the long term health of the Indian domestic aviation industry SAAB need to be avoided at all costs. Short termism cannot be allowed to destroy the capacity building project(s) that is(are) the LCA(andMK.2) project(s). Everyone has to start somehwere, there are no shrotcuts to success (maybe how the DM is seeing it). The LCA project needs to be ring-fenced IMO- commit to 200+ and leave it alone.

 

[raktaka]

The field is not open. Rafale line is guaranteed. And numbers have increased.

The field is open for a second line.

The opening of the second line is the fly in the ointment. It is not something HAL or Dassault would have wanted. It just shows their failure to impress upon the GoI that they can address all the Pain areas. This opened door for competitors.

Dassault had earned the goodwill of HAL. Why do you think HAL stepped up to be the guarantor?

HAL as guarantor for its products is not an novelty. It does not point to smooth relations with Dassault. All sources say they had a very tempestuous dealings.

??? The Rafale deal closed for them.

Their future projects were supposed to be LCA, AMCA, FGFA and Rafale. Now they have the first three.

It appears Reliance has replaced HAL.

Before the CNC called it off, what model did HAL choose ? 3 lines of fixed wings aircraft is good enough. Add to that 3 lines of Helicopters. HAL's future is secure.

Reliance is the candle in the wind. How long can Dassult keep it burning ? Time will tell. Certainly not Risk free move.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

IMHO it doesn't change anything. Naturally SAAB can begin production in India sooner than the MK.2 but does that make it worth selling the Indian aerospace industry down the river? MK.1A prodcution should be complete by 2023/4 (7-8 years from now) which should be enough to get the MK.2 off the drawing board and close to induction, if there is a delay in that process a few more SQNs of MK.1A can be produced.

My points above (post 2098) remain valid:
Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 140


For the long term health of the Indian domestic aviation industry SAAB need to be avoided at all costs. Short termism cannot be allowed to destroy the capacity building project(s) that is(are) the LCA(andMK.2) project(s). Everyone has to start somehwere, there are no shrotcuts to success (maybe how the DM is seeing it). The LCA project needs to be ring-fenced IMO- commit to 200+ and leave it alone.

I for one dont even understand why we are bothering for GripenNG/F16 or a F18 line where Boeing wants full control

Honestly i said it before and i am still sticking with a same thinking.. 4 jets and everything else can be dumped..
I said before and i still say to me most practical plan is something like this

Take it nice and steady.. Use resources properly.. Ensure LCA or lIght category is all about tejas...FOC is near.. mark 1A should come soon.. SO mark 2 also can come there should not be any issue.. If mark2 is delayed by 3 years use those 3 years and produce more Mark1A.. How does it matter if we induct say few more Mark1A over Mark 2 when we aim to have a huge fleet of LCA almost 25% of our 1000 Jet fleet say by 2050..

Us e resources in Rafale, FGFA and AMCA..

Keep it nice and tidy and simple.. Use Saab and Boeing and everything starts to go murky..

 

[raktaka]

IMHO it doesn't change anything. Naturally SAAB can begin production in India sooner than the MK.2 but does that make it worth selling the Indian aerospace industry down the river? MK.1A prodcution should be complete by 2023/4 (7-8 years from now) which should be enough to get the MK.2 off the drawing board and close to induction, if there is a delay in that process a few more SQNs of MK.1A can be produced.

My points above (post 2098) remain valid:
Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 140


For the long term health of the Indian domestic aviation industry SAAB need to be avoided at all costs. Short termism cannot be allowed to destroy the capacity building project(s) that is(are) the LCA(andMK.2) project(s). Everyone has to start somehwere, there are no shrotcuts to success (maybe how the DM is seeing it). The LCA project needs to be ring-fenced IMO- commit to 200+ and leave it alone.

HAL should take up Mk2 development and the MK1 team should now focus on AMCA.

I for one dont even understand why we are bothering for GripenNG/F16 or a F18 line where Boeing wants full control

Honestly i said it before and i am still sticking with a same thinking.. 4 jets and everything else can be dumped..
I said before and i still say to me most practical plan is something like this
View attachment 294323

Take it nice and steady.. Use resources properly.. Ensure LCA or lIght category is all about tejas...FOC is near.. mark 1A should come soon.. SO mark 2 also can come there should not be any issue.. If mark2 is delayed by 3 years use those 3 years and produce more Mark1A.. How does it matter if we induct say few more Mark1A over Mark 2 when we aim to have a huge fleet of LCA almost 25% of our 1000 Jet fleet say by 2050..

Us e resources in Rafale, FGFA and AMCA..

Keep it nice and tidy and simple.. Use Saab and Boeing and everything starts to go murky..

Paisa ?

 

[Ankit Kumar]

one thing to remember. SAAB NG/E/F is still a paper plane.

@Abingdonboy
While Mig35 has been flying at different Air shows and upto 8 prototypes and pre production aircrafts manufactured, SAAB hasn't yet come out with Gripen NG/E/F , it remains on PAPER, except a D airframe fitted with GE414.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

HAL should take up Mk2 development and the MK1 team should now focus on AMCA.



Paisa ?

Money is a consideration and thats why all the sheet represents is just a plan not saying its 100% reliable.. Yet its much better than having 400 jets divided between 18s and Rafales and another 150 jets for Gripen NG with No LCA MK2.

I for one would always advocate Light category to be exclusively handled by LCA various variants (Mark 1, mark 2 and in future so on)

At least with Rafales for both IAF+IN we can focus at peace for inhouse R&D work for AMCA and ensure AMCA becomes our prime product once its ready..

 

[Abingdonboy]

I for one dont even understand why we are bothering for GripenNG/F16 or a F18 line where Boeing wants full control

Honestly i said it before and i am still sticking with a same thinking.. 4 jets and everything else can be dumped..
I said before and i still say to me most practical plan is something like this
View attachment 294323

Take it nice and steady.. Use resources properly.. Ensure LCA or lIght category is all about tejas...FOC is near.. mark 1A should come soon.. SO mark 2 also can come there should not be any issue.. If mark2 is delayed by 3 years use those 3 years and produce more Mark1A.. How does it matter if we induct say few more Mark1A over Mark 2 when we aim to have a huge fleet of LCA almost 25% of our 1000 Jet fleet say by 2050..

Us e resources in Rafale, FGFA and AMCA..

.

Right! AMCA, MKI, LCA, Rafale and FGFA are the future of the IAF- they all fit together PERFECTLY and will create a well balanced and formidable force (to my mind the finest outside of North America). Any other option (second MMRCA, LSA and such) is just waste that will hinder, not help, the IAF in the long run.

Keep it nice and tidy and simple.. Use Saab and Boeing and everything starts to go murky..

My thoughts exactly, what is to be gained (other than applying pressure on Dassualt) by bringing these guys into the picture at the last minuet.


I understand that this GoI is trying hard to be "different" these sorts of games should have been played 5-6 years ago, not now- the situation is far too dire to be messing around on this level and the GoI/MoD/PM/DM need to appreciate they have inhereited an emergency situation.

To me, it looks like the tail is wagging the dog- the PM/DM are being led by these CEOs and MNCs, they don't seem to have a clear vision that they are executing with purpose. So much for a "decisive leader".

 

[raktaka]

Money is a consideration and thats why all the sheet represents is just a plan not saying its 100% reliable.. Yet its much better than having 400 jets divided between 18s and Rafales and another 150 jets for Gripen NG with No LCA MK2.

I for one would always advocate Light category to be exclusively handled by LCA various variants (Mark 1, mark 2 and in future so on)

At least with Rafales for both IAF+IN we can focus at peace for inhouse R&D work for AMCA and ensure AMCA becomes our prime product once its ready..

LCA is an unwanted baby and the Indian Tax payers are left holding it. Its about time its handed over to Mommy and Daddy aka HAL and IAF and let them decide its future.

As long as they both do not acknowledge this child, it will remain a bastard.

 

[randomradio]

The opening of the second line is the fly in the ointment. It is not something HAL or Dassault would have wanted. It just shows their failure to impress upon the GoI that they can address all the Pain areas. This opened door for competitors.

I don't know what you are trying to say here.

And there is no door open to any competitor. The Rafale deal is happening, it has also doubled. And they seem to have exclusive access to the IN also.

All sources say they had a very tempestuous dealings.

I wouldn't know about that. And probably never will since the deal stands canceled.

Before the CNC called it off, what model did HAL choose ?

I don't know. Whatever model they would have chosen outside Dassault's model would have brought in 2 or 3 years of delays in certification, which means IAF would have bought more Rafales directly from Dassault lines, like they have been doing with MKI.

3 lines of fixed wings aircraft is good enough. Add to that 3 lines of Helicopters. HAL's future is secure.

That's one reason why MoD today wants the private sector to enter the aerospace sector as an OEM.

Reliance is the candle in the wind. How long can Dassult keep it burning ? Time will tell. Certainly not Risk free move.

Dassault already has plans of building Falcons with Reliance in India. There is no such think as a risk free move. Risks have to be taken if we are to go anywhere. Time is more important than money even if HAL thinks otherwise. China's become very scary now. We need to maintain our air superiority.

I for one dont even understand why we are bothering for GripenNG/F16 or a F18 line where Boeing wants full control

Honestly i said it before and i am still sticking with a same thinking.. 4 jets and everything else can be dumped..
I said before and i still say to me most practical plan is something like this
View attachment 294323

That would only add 252 jets by 2027. IAF needs over 400, IN needs 150. That's 550-252 = 298 jets short.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

LCA is an unwanted baby and the Indian Tax payers are left holding it. Its about time its handed over to Mommy and Daddy aka HAL and IAF and let them decide its future.

As long as they both do not acknowledge this child, it will remain a bastard.

I understand completely what you said.. Its a sentiment which i can emphatise...

 

[raktaka]

I don't know what you are trying to say here.

And there is no door open to any competitor. The Rafale deal is happening, it has also doubled. And they seem to have exclusive access to the IN also.

IN opportunity always existed. Its not a new thing. Future purchase is not guaranteed and hence the risk for Dassault has increased.

Dassault already has plans of building Falcons with Reliance in India. There is no such think as a risk free move. Risks have to be taken if we are to go anywhere. Time is more important than money even if HAL thinks otherwise. China's become very scary now. We need to maintain our air superiority.

With the global economy in recession what are the odds of new Falcon sales by Dassault ? I will not be holding my breath for this deal to Make them in India to move forward anytime soon.

Neither Reliance nor Dassault will take this risk. They will expect the GoI to take the risk and will lobby for a back door entry as VIP transport, Special Mission aircrafts etc.

Is Dassault is trying to move the offset for Rafale onto the Falcon ?

I agree that Time is more important than Money and China will make its move fast and we need to be ready. But for now, a Global alliance seems to be a much better bet than new Aircrafts. Of course one cannot exist without the other.

 

[randomradio]

LCA is an unwanted baby and the Indian Tax payers are left holding it. Its about time its handed over to Mommy and Daddy aka HAL and IAF and let them decide its future.

As long as they both do not acknowledge this child, it will remain a bastard.

This is true. If the Mk2 is not made in a realistic timeframe, it won't be manufactured at all. And the aircraft is not flying today.

It is more likely the AMCA will fly before the Mk2 does at this rate.

IN opportunity always existed. Its not a new thing. Future purchase is not guaranteed and hence the risk for Dassault has increased.

Why is it not guaranteed? The minimum numbers to be purchased has already been decided. It's in the MoU we signed in Jan.

With the global economy in recession what are the odds of new Falcon sales by Dassault ?

The estimate is 400 jet market in India alone over 10 years.

Is Dassault is trying to move the offset for Rafale onto the Falcon ?

The Reliance-Dassault JV has been in the works since 2013, MoD clearance came in 2014. This deal is happening and has nothing to do with Rafale or offsets.

According to MMRCA, Reliance was supposed to build wings, not that will be expanded to the entire aircraft as the lead integrator. This has everything to do with offsets. Setting up a Rafale production line is part of the offsets.

But for now, a Global alliance seems to be a much better bet than new Aircrafts. Of course one cannot exist without the other.

Not happening. As far as IAF and IA are concerned, no global alliance will save us from China. The expectation is we will have to save the others from China.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

That would only add 252 jets by 2027. IAF needs over 400, IN needs 150. That's 550-252 = 298 jets short

Ok lets consider a case for another line..
For my own sentiments and love for LCA, let me consider just F18s not Gripen NG.

Despite of all issues of Boeing wanting full control of course and USA association.....

The minimum line viability is 24 so let me consider that case itself..

So 24 x 7 = 168 Jets thats 298-168 = 130

If i throw in 40 MKi+54 Rafales+30 approx Mig 29Ks thats 124 jets

If you had already considered MKIs+rafales+Mig29Ks then the gap is 130, If not gap is down to just 4..

Hmmmmm..
But cost parallely for procuring 18s @24 jets a year would be steep too...

 

[randomradio]

Hmmmmm..
But cost parallely for procuring 18s @24 jets a year would be steep too...

You are forgetting that extra jets produced will result in an expansion of the IAF's minimum squadrons. If jets are available, IN will expand also.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

You are forgetting that extra jets produced will result in an expansion of the IAF's minimum squadrons. If jets are available, IN will expand also.

True and i feel Boeing will target 30 Jets over minimum 24.. so yes around 6x7 = 42 more will be available...