Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[raktaka]

The new MMRCA line has nothing to do with Dassault. And it's meant for the private sector. HAL shoul dbe happy with LCA, AMCA and FGFA.

Its demonstrates the failure of Dassault to close the deal when it had the chance. They were exclusive back then, today the field is open once again.

If Dassault had earned the good will of HAL, HAL would have thrown its weight behind the deal and Dassault would have gained immensely, but they let their pride get to them and antagonized HAL.

They did not trust HAL to deliver quality, so they wanted Dassault to be the guarantor.

Which is why I said, IAF should have assumed responsibility and raised to the occasion. They would have been an acceptable candidate for both HAL and Dassault.

How does that mean IAF and IN are in control?

IN have program managers, IAF don't. You have a problem right there.

But I agree IN is much better to work with.

Control is an illusion in any Program / Project. Final proof of the pudding is in the eating. IN ensures the pudding is delivered and eaten. IAF does not. That is program management in a nutshell.

That also failed back in the 90s.

No Doubt. IAF suck in Program Management. Too much ego.

There is no IP in ToT. Dassault is not giving a license, not IP.

Dassault gave two choices-
-Do what we tell you to do and get Rafales quickly.
-Do what you want and have the aircraft re-certified.

HAL was allowed to choose. But of course, neither happened.

Any idea what HAL chose ?

 

[randomradio]

I'm starting to think...what can we get for IN's MiG-29K MLU? For sure we can incorporate the FGA-29 AESA with GaN, the new OLS systems, maybe uprated engines?

I don't know about ToT (we can get enough to upgrade the planes in India much like M2K-5) but, as far as having pure technology goes...there doesn't seem to be much that the MiG-35 could get us that a potential 29K MLU wouldn't.

We gotta play smart with the purchases and the FGFA program combined with our already-inducted 29K fleet can get us viable access to both Tikhomirov and Phazotron-developed radars, as well as Saturn/Lyulka and Klimov engine techs. Can't do too many favors to the Russians. I'd say we should fully leverage what we have already committed to - that alone would get us a long way.

IAF is happy with the Rafale line. So a second or third line will be a political decision apart from cost.

Don't think too much about the additional lines, it's simply a numbers filler.

Its demonstrates the failure of Dassault to close the deal when it had the chance. They were exclusive back then, today the field is open once again.

The field is not open. Rafale line is guaranteed. And numbers have increased.

The field is open for a second line.

If Dassault had earned the good will of HAL, HAL would have thrown its weight behind the deal and Dassault would have gained immensely, but they let their pride get to them and antagonized HAL.

Dassault had earned the goodwill of HAL. Why do you think HAL stepped up to be the guarantor?

Which is why I said, IAF should have assumed responsibility and raised to the occasion. They would have been an acceptable candidate for both HAL and Dassault.

They can't. They need to first start by making their own design agency. And like the IN, they need to say only what they design needs to be built. That will ensure all DPSUs will toe their line like they do for IN.

Any idea what HAL chose ?

??? The Rafale deal closed for them.

Their future projects were supposed to be LCA, AMCA, FGFA and Rafale. Now they have the first three.

It appears Reliance has replaced HAL.

 

[Abingdonboy]

The Mig-35 configuration has changed significantly after the MMRCA rejection.

Still 0 orders.

 

[randomradio]

Still 0 orders.

RuAF plans to order a decent number of Mig-35s. The first order will be between 30-40. The Mig-35s will undergo state trials and an order will be placed before 2018.

And there are other export possibilities for it. Egypt and Iran come to mind.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

OK took a small break to have a detailed chat with my source.. So following is what he said.

Will start with LCA case..

• LCA MK2 is being thought to be brought directly in the from of Gripen NG/F16 line
• The case in point being evolution of MK2 will take time and since both these fighters are readily available once line is setup, the production time frame benefits India
• Officially HAL has to be happy with MK1 only
• This line potential is restricted to pure IAF usage as of now.
• The production rate is estimated to churn out 20 jets for India alone.
• Gripen NG seems to have a slight advantage here over F16..
• Saab talks about a full manufacturing line based out of India to be used for full India needs and all export needs
• The line is estimated to have 2/3 for India and 1/3 for Exports for a priority period and first right of induction by India
• The overall production per year is expected between 20 (20 India 0 exports) to 30 (20 India 10 exports)
• F16 is not preferred as its a clear perception that PAF knows the jet inside out

In case of F18

• USA or specifically Mr Carter along with Boeing chief Dennis Muilenburg has suggested a unique structure
• Owing to limited orders in hand already, Boeing plans to shift the whole production line (not assembly but entire production) into India by max 2019 end
• This line Boeing wants to handle by itself as of now (no tie ups no DPSU)
• The whole production right from raw materials will be initially sourced from USA vendors but slowly each of them will be asked to setup a local unit in India and the value chain localisation will occur.
• The Boeing F18 SH and a new variant ASH technologies will be available for local absorption as defined by India
• In return it wants a confirmed 200+ jets order
• Boeing wants to be the chief customer of Indian Navy and contribute 200 of its jets
• Boeing in turn also wishes to share its experience and contribution into AMCA program
• Minimum production rate is 24 jets a year for the line to be viable
• The same jets can be directly used in EMALS based carriers (read no F-35s)
• Mr Carters vision is to let India take everything related to F18 as a whole with even repair, maintenance, spares and other global fleet support to be handled from India only
• Mr carter also mentioned about all this outside the 3 agreement structure (CISMOA, BECA, LSA) as long as the strike package is non nuclear in any aspect
• Customization requirements will be borne by Boeing without any new charging as its their own assessment that 200 will cover everything
• Boeing wishes IAF also to look at F18s for its usage.

In case of EF

• EF came as a packaged deal with smart city investments
• Basically the smart city investments would get a investment where a part will be used to set up a line for India
• The added attraction was the supply chain transfer from the very beginning as part of technology major setting up units in the smart city
• In short dual usage meeting both civilian and military goals
• Risk being the cost is marginally cheaper (15% versus Rafale) but a smart city or actually a aerospace city is not cutting much ice with Indian planners as supply chain movement seems a bit too much for a smart city kind of a project.
• The timeline for the whole project and production start is longer than above 2 options.
• Discussion not finalised as of yet

In case of Rafale

• Extreme negotiations but first MII line is Rafale (unless something changes drastically)
• Its the only line planned for catering both IAF+IN
• The local production of Rafale is now even more critical since NSA Doval had requested a non USA fighter to be made ready for SFC duties along with a Russian advanced 5th Generation Jet again to be produced in India
• The present SFC duties are handled by a combination of Mirages, Jags (both primary roles) and few MKIs (secondary role). This is to be changed to Rafales (primary)+ MKis (secondary) and later to Rafales + FGFA
• There is no issue of any cost part rather the talks are about implementation and structure to maximise benefits for India.with small adjustments of give and take.

@Abingdonboy @Vauban @Taygibay @Picdelamirand-oil @anant_s @Dash @randomradio @MilSpec @AUSTERLITZ @Armani

 

[mirage]

No, now the cost of a Su-35 is $15M. Ruble has fallen 250%.

250 % ? where did you see that and how do you calculate devaluation against which currency ? we can get 78 ruble for one usd today and price was 61 around september last year . indeed the fall in ruble was biggest against the dollar recently but other currencies also follow suit as rupee too depreciated around 14 % during that time against the dollar . 250 % means one ruble = 152.5 = one $ to be precise by your calculation which is not the case .

 

[randomradio]

The SH will see the most ToT from the looks of it, but it has to be with an Indian partner. Giving Boeing 100% ownership will defeat the secondary purpose of the line, to create an aerospace industry.

250 % ? where did you see that and how do you calculate devaluation against which currency ? we can get 78 ruble for one usd today and price was 61 around september last year . indeed the fall in ruble was biggest against the dollar recently but other currencies also follow suit as rupee too depreciated around 14 % during that time against the dollar . 250 % means one ruble = 152.5 = one $ to be precise by your calculation which is not the case .

Ruble used to be 30 to a USD. Now it's 80. This happened recently. Russia used to be a $2.5T economy, now it's about $1T.

The 250% is not an exact figure, you can say it is 200-250%.

 

[Abingdonboy]

OK took a small break to have a detailed chat with my source.. So following is what he said.

Will start with LCA case..

• LCA MK2 is being thought to be brought directly in the from of Gripen NG/F16 line
• The case in point being evolution of MK2 will take time and since both these fighters are readily available once line is setup, the production time frame benefits India
• Officially HAL has to be happy with MK1 only
• This line potential is restricted to pure IAF usage as of now.
• The production rate is estimated to churn out 20 jets for India alone.
• Gripen NG seems to have a slight advantage here over F16..
• Saab talks about a full manufacturing line based out of India to be used for full India needs and all export needs
• The line is estimated to have 2/3 for India and 1/3 for Exports for a priority period and first right of induction by India
• The overall production per year is expected between 20 (20 India 0 exports) to 30 (20 India 10 exports)
• F16 is not preferred as its a clear perception that PAF knows the jet inside out

In case of F18

• USA or specifically Mr Carter along with Boeing chief Dennis Muilenburg has suggested a unique structure
• Owing to limited orders in hand already, Boeing plans to shift the whole production line (not assembly but entire production) into India by max 2019 end
• This line Boeing wants to handle by itself as of now (no tie ups no DPSU)
• The whole production right from raw materials will be initially sourced from USA vendors but slowly each of them will be asked to setup a local unit in India and the value chain localisation will occur.
• The Boeing F18 SH and a new variant ASH technologies will be available for local absorption as defined by India
• In return it wants a confirmed 200+ jets order
• Boeing wants to be the chief customer of Indian Navy and contribute 200 of its jets
• Boeing in turn also wishes to share its experience and contribution into AMCA program
• Minimum production rate is 24 jets a year for the line to be viable
• The same jets can be directly used in EMALS based carriers (read no F-35s)
• Mr Carters vision is to let India take everything related to F18 as a whole with even repair, maintenance, spares and other global fleet support to be handled from India only
• Mr carter also mentioned about all this outside the 3 agreement structure (CISMOA, BECA, LSA) as long as the strike package is non nuclear in any aspect
• Customization requirements will be borne by Boeing without any new charging as its their own assessment that 200 will cover everything
• Boeing wishes IAF also to look at F18s for its usage.

In case of EF

• EF came as a packaged deal with smart city investments
• Basically the smart city investments would get a investment where a part will be used to set up a line for India
• The added attraction was the supply chain transfer from the very beginning as part of technology major setting up units in the smart city
• In short dual usage meeting both civilian and military goals
• Risk being the cost is marginally cheaper (15% versus Rafale) but a smart city or actually a aerospace city is not cutting much ice with Indian planners as supply chain movement seems a bit too much for a smart city kind of a project.
• The timeline for the whole project and production start is longer than above 2 options.
• Discussion not finalised as of yet

In case of Rafale

• Extreme negotiations but first MII line is Rafale (unless something changes drastically)
• Its the only line planned for catering both IAF+IN
• The local production of Rafale is now even more critical since NSA Doval had requested a non USA fighter to be made ready for SFC duties along with a Russian advanced 5th Generation Jet again to be produced in India
• The present SFC duties are handled by a combination of Mirages, Jags (both primary roles) and few MKIs (secondary role). This is to be changed to Rafales (primary)+ MKis (secondary) and later to Rafales + FGFA
• There is no issue of any cost part rather the talks are about implementation and structure to maximise benefits for India.with small adjustments of give and take.

@Abingdonboy @Vauban @Taygibay @Picdelamirand-oil @anant_s @Dash @randomradio @MilSpec @AUSTERLITZ @Armani

Optimal strategy is to keep with the Rafale buy and stick with the LCA (and devlop the Mk.2), adding all these other elements is just complicating things further and I don't think the user (IAF) is being best served or the nation in the long term- there may be some short term benefits.

 

[mirage]

The SH will see the most ToT from the looks of it, but it has to be with an Indian partner. Giving Boeing 100% ownership will defeat the secondary purpose of the line, to create an aerospace industry.



Ruble used to be 30 to a USD. Now it's 80. This happened recently. Russia used to be a $2.5T economy, now it's about $1T.

The 250% is not an exact figure, you can say it is 200-250%.

sir , it was 30 in 2012-13

 

[Abingdonboy]

The SH will see the most ToT from the looks of it, but it has to be with an Indian partner.

No way will the USG agree to that- they never share top end sensitive kit. In every military deal with the US the polticans (US Congress) get involved and muddy the waters, the Rafale deal won't be subject to the same issues.

 

[randomradio]

sir , it was 30 in 2012-13

Yes, it was. From 2012-13 to 2015-16, it's dropped down 250%, 30-80. In that same period, INR has dropped about 30%, from 45-50 to 65-70.

No way will the USG agree to that- they never share top end sensitive kit. In every military deal with the US the polticans (US Congress) get involved and muddy the waters, the Rafale deal won't be subject to the same issues.

That's probably why Boeing wants 100% ownership.

 

[Abingdonboy]

That's probably why Boeing wants 100% ownership.

Well this entirely defeats the point of ToT then, and can't even be called ToT, can it?

 

[raktaka]

Any deal with Boeing is going to be a waste of time and money. We can control SAAB, Boeing will control us.

Looks like the Rafale is also the Plan B / risk mitigation for FGFA, so it might have a future after all.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Looks like the Rafale is also the Plan B / risk mitigation for FGFA, so it might have a future after all.

People need to stop doing this.

The market in India for fighters in the next 20 years is HUGE and there is more than enough room for the MKI AND LCA AND RAFALE AND FGFA. None are mutually exclusive, all have their respective strenghts and bring about unique benefits to India. India cannot afford not to get any of the above.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

I did argue the Mark2 case of LCA with my source and he spilled some more which i had not posted before...

Well seems in a review of LCA progress DM MP asked few pointed questions. This meeting was chaired by multiple teams not only just HAL.

The main point asked by DM MP was after LCA Mark1A test flight and handover for production, how long will the whole team take to come out with Mark 2. Members seems to have suggested that a committee be formed to evaluate the timelines and manpower requirements for the additional line requirement.

DM MP cut them short and said in 6 years at 16 jets a year this order is finished so after Mark 2 should start production from the same line without any downtime. The members still suggested they require a more detailed view and committee to be formed for assessing the realistic dates and plan to be presented to DM.

They suggested that a new jet requires far more testing from prototype phase and thus requires thorough analysis by a committee.
.
DM MP then seems to have asked how long will the committee take to submit the report which people replied about a year.

DM MP did not say anything on this after all this discussion.

This is as per source and i did nt put that in original post owing to the fact that within a week after that Saab people had sent feelers to DM MP via a specific BJP CM that Gripen NG can be produced in 3 years from now under MII and can take care of LCA Mark 2 needs with Indian specific customization. In short Indian side requirements could be met outright and Mark 2 project can be put aside.

DM MP has still not made any decision and is consulting some other senior members (PM NaMo and FM AJ) on this..

So I refrained from posting it here previously.