Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[raktaka]

Why is it not guaranteed? The minimum numbers to be purchased has already been decided. It's in the MoU we signed in Jan.

Only 36 is guaranteed. Right ?

The estimate is 400 jet market in India alone over 10 years.

That is speculation and future hedging, also known as Bird in bush. Hence the Risk.

The Reliance-Dassault JV has been in the works since 2013, MoD clearance came in 2014. This deal is happening and has nothing to do with Rafale or offsets.

According to MMRCA, Reliance was supposed to build wings, not that will be expanded to the entire aircraft as the lead integrator. This has everything to do with offsets. Setting up a Rafale production line is part of the offsets.

How can they set up Rafale line with a firm order of 36 aircrafts ? Does the MoU mention 126 ?

Not happening. As far as IAF and IA are concerned, no global alliance will save us from China. The expectation is we will have to save the others from China.

I mean an alliance to prevent aggression. Of course when its war, everybody except the big boys will look at us to save their @ss. The greatest victory is to prevent such aggression , by a strong alliance. But we do need to carry a Big Stick.

 

[Abingdonboy]

You are forgetting that extra jets produced will result in an expansion of the IAF's minimum squadrons

Talking about an expansion of the IAF's minimum SQN strength is absurdly premature at this point- they will struggle to meet 42 by 2027 at this rate (when the Parliamentry standing commitee on defence says this should really be 45).

 

[randomradio]

Only 36 is guaranteed. Right ?

On contract, yes. But the offsets part of the deal includes building the production line. So technically, the entire Make in India project is guaranteed for Rafale as soon as the 36 jet contract is signed.

How can they set up Rafale line with a firm order of 36 aircrafts ? Does the MoU mention 126 ?

Much more than that. The numbers have not been revealed publicly. Only Picdel and myself have an idea of the exact number on this forum. Final numbers will be decided as soon as IN makes the decision to go for Rafale-M.

All I can say is the numbers are roughly double that of MMRCA.

But we do need to carry a Big Stick.

We need 550 jets over the next 10 years to qualify for carrying the figurative big stick.

 

[Abingdonboy]

How can they set up Rafale line with a firm order of 36 aircrafts ? Does the MoU mention 126 ?

Off the shelf procurement and the MII production line are two seperate deals. One is for 36, the other is for a lot more and, yes, both sides have an understanding of the number of birds India needs to be built in India, of course 36 isn't enough to justify a production line in India- no foreign OEM would ever bite at this.

 

[randomradio]

Talking about an expansion of the IAF's minimum SQN strength is absurdly premature at this point- they will struggle to meet 42 by 2027 at this rate (when the Parliamentry standing commitee on defence says this should really be 45).

With a 3rd MMRCA line, they will comfortably reach 550 jets by 2027.

 

[Abingdonboy]

All I can say is the numbers are roughly double that of MMRCA.

When you say that, do you mean 2x126 or 2x189?

 

[randomradio]

When you say that, do you mean 2x126 or 2x189?

The first one. But IAF won't order all at once. It will grow like MKI did.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

3 manufacturing lines... I feel something like this

 

[Taygibay]

Only Picdel and myself have an idea of the exact number on this forum.

This made you sound/read/appear quite full of yourself, mate!
Thought I'd tell you in case it wasn't what you were gunning for.

GL, Tay.

 

[randomradio]

This made you sound/read/appear quite full of yourself, mate!
Thought I'd tell you in case it wasn't what you were gunning for.

GL, Tay.

My bad, bro. Didn't mean it. Was just putting a point across, since we have those numbers on good authority. I'm sure halloweene also knows. From what I was told, a number of journalists have the information but were told not to print that yet.

 

[surya kiran]

3 manufacturing lines... I feel something like this

View attachment 294340

1. Rafale - The number will be 200+ as we have been discussing since donkey's and nobody cared to listen.

2. LCA - If what you say is right and Gripen does step in, this would be the biggest disservice this Government will be doing. I hope it turns out to be just smoke and HAL pumps out more aircraft. What is troubling though, is how we are expecting HAL/ADA to proceed with Mk2 and AMCA, simultaneously? It would make more sense to upgrade the avionics and proceed with Mk1A and move to the AMCA. HAL and ADA can then devote resources to this. If there is a need to plug years, order more of the Mk1A or the N-LCA. Gripen is a suicide mission.
Or let a private player also develop a second line for Tejas?

3. Boeing - They had offered to setup an MRO for aircraft in Maharashtra. They should be asked to set that up first. If they do make use of their tie-up with TATA, they could be pulled in to pitch against the AMCA. Nothing like a bit of competition. And this will push HAL and ADA to deliver to timelines too. Any other line is total rubbish. Ok, maybe the Osprey line

 

[sathya]

Why would they buy another plane?

Cost of setting up, training, maintenance, etc will make its cost = additional order of Rafale with the preexisting facilities ..


New line Gripen will be = Rafale

Clearly another plane has to be damn very cheap to make it viable.

F16/18 in Tata plant is the idea ?

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Right! AMCA, MKI, LCA, Rafale and FGFA are the future of the IAF- they all fit together PERFECTLY and will create a well balanced and formidable force (to my mind the finest outside of North America). Any other option (second MMRCA, LSA and such) is just waste that will hinder, not help, the IAF in the long run.


My thoughts exactly, what is to be gained (other than applying pressure on Dassualt) by bringing these guys into the picture at the last minuet.


I understand that this GoI is trying hard to be "different" these sorts of games should have been played 5-6 years ago, not now- the situation is far too dire to be messing around on this level and the GoI/MoD/PM/DM need to appreciate they have inhereited an emergency situation.

To me, it looks like the tail is wagging the dog- the PM/DM are being led by these CEOs and MNCs, they don't seem to have a clear vision that they are executing with purpose. So much for a "decisive leader".

Yes but what puzzle me is the fact that Parrikar try to push LCA Mk2, for that he needs information urgently, HAL refuse and said a comitee is needed, OK at the end he asks how long it will take to have the report of the comitee. It's a huge effort from him and the answer instead of being one month or one week as it is normal is one year! It's normal that now he looks for other solutions.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Why would they buy another plane?

Cost of setting up, training, maintenance, etc will make its cost = additional order of Rafale with the preexisting facilities ..


New line Gripen will be = Rafale

Clearly another plane has to be damn very cheap to make it viable.

F16/18 in Tata plant is the idea ?

Source says Boeing wants to go solo.. Few pages back pasted the related information

Here is the link to the post
Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2] | Page 142

Yes but what puzzle me is the fact that Parrikar try to push LCA Mk2, for that he needs information urgently, HAL refuse and said a comitee is needed, OK at the end he asks how long it will take to have the report of the comitee. It's a huge effort from him and the answer instead of being one month or one week as it is normal is one year! It's normal that now he looks for other solutions.

Sadly we missed a big trick here.. The ppl in the meeting should have asked for 1 month max and should have returned with plan including request for funding and may be a pvt company partnership need also.. Essentially fitting into a MII agenda of the government..

For Gripen the biggest backer is CM Fadnavis of Maharashtra as he is very keen to have the Saab unit in Maharashtra under MII plan..
Now he is a powerful man with lots of connections right from PM NaMo to Gadkari to Jaitley.. So he being the major force here whose backing Saab's interest..

For Boeing otoh its directly all top down approach with leader level talks..

What is interesting is recent last week turn of events will influence US India relations a lot.. In case the 16s sales go through and no money is asked from Pakistan to pay and aid being used to finance the deal, effectively opposition will paint it as a defeat for NDA govt foreign policies.. Even though I believe Senate may finally ask Pakistan to shell out money for 16s, essentially trying to maintain status quo till next POTUS comes in.. This also translates a similar level policy paralysis may be also visible for US India partnership or say a Boeing bid for MII backed by US government
.
So in all probability this year Dec end other than Rafale there is no scope for any other MII.

Effectively that's a reprieve for our domestic LCA program and they do have say 18 months from now to come up with something credible for MK2.

Bcz anything against LCA program won't be very easy for NDA after all LCA name Tejas was given by AB Vajpayee. For Gripens case there has to be lot of negatives cited in press for domestic audience consumption against MK2 issues and painting HAL/ADA as villains.. That's difficult as in another few years elections would be back and NDA may be seen against PSU people..

Oh btw who knows in 18 months the mark1A rolls out and the whole country cheers for that.. And in an Instant mark2 development plan is given a green signal..

Endless opportunities here..
FOC now to mark1A delivery.. each of these milestones would make the government compel to continue with mark2 inspite of all lobby and opportunities

 

[randomradio]

Yes but what puzzle me is the fact that Parrikar try to push LCA Mk2, for that he needs information urgently, HAL refuse and said a comitee is needed, OK at the end he asks how long it will take to have the report of the comitee. It's a huge effort from him and the answer instead of being one month or one week as it is normal is one year! It's normal that now he looks for other solutions.

The deadline for LCA Mk2 development is unrealistic. They think it will fly in 2018 and achieve IOC in 2021.