What makes you think indian subs can venture near China's coast while Chinese ones which are far greater in numbers and modernity won't do that to India? Not to mention China having far greater anti-sub assets since it does face Japan and US who have the best subs in the world while India faces close to very little sub threat.
Everything Indian will be bombarded because China has no limit on range. India does have extreme limits on how far it can reach with offensive weapons, not only in the capability of those offensive weapons but how many they have and how many types they have. This should be combined with air defence. China has tens of thousands more medium and long range IAD systems. India has Akash and now has some token units of S-400 and India's offensive capability is far weaker.
For every Agni India has and can afford to throw conventionally, China has dozens more MRBM and IRBM not to mention so, so, so much more rocket artillery and SRBM. India has yet to properly put Nirbhay into service while there are more Chinese cruise missiles types than I can remember and more units than I can count.
So tell me exactly how you would perform Malacca strait blockade. Explain it and I will be able to see what you mean. I honestly cannot see that being achieved by India even if India's forces are multiplied by 5. India lacks the advanced weapons.
Like you have sort of done so here but honestly this is like a child's imagination.
"Chinese submarines can be detected off major harbours by anti submarine vessels, especially from air. Each of these harbours will get cover by attack helicopters & frigates.
As all Chinese vessels will have to concentrate on the 4 Indian coastal harbours, they cannot do much of a problem.
Indian submarines can target naval facilities in Hainan island, can bombard HongKong & Shanghai. Bombers from Indian Aircraft carrier can also target Bejing, Canton, Kunming, Fuzhu & coastal naval bases."
Chinese subs can be detected off major habours? Through what mechanism? Do you realize how big the world is? and how short ranged everything is? People have no sense of scale or realization of distance. The search and travel distance and loiter time of India's 8 P-8 aircraft is extremely extremely small for such a task. They would get shot down within 1000km of China by PLAAF alone and 10,000km from China by PLAN. China has more than 80 Y-8 and Y-9 special mission aircraft dedicated to naval warfare from anti-sub to EW and AEWC C4ISR to India's imported 8. There is absolutely zero evidence P-8 is more sophisticated if anything it is 5 years older and has fewer sensor types. China doesn't lag US by much in software and computing. Nor in GaN and sensors technology. In fact China's communications tech at least is better.
Indian frigates and ships cannot venture to SCS in wartime and survive. How will some Indian frigates be able to perform those duties with a PLAN at least 5 times the size and far more modern playing in its own front yard.
What makes you think India can walk towards China without being bludgeoned to pieces FAR away. As for meeting at Malacca Strait, how can india go to Malacca strait and impose a block against a military that is over 5 times larger, more advanced and modern on the whole, and an economy that is 5 times greater with far far greater manufacturing and industrial basis with far greater integration with the world economy that depends far more on China than it does on India. Sure okay let's say China sends 1/5 of PLAN only in a war with India just to keep the main force in eastern sea. That means the two navies are roughly equal. Even assuming 1:1 exchange roughly, India will lose basically its entire naval force (and have nothing to defend against Pakistan) in exchange for China's 1/5 of its naval force and at the end, fail to block Malacca strait.
Keep in mind Malacca strait is not that much closer to India and China has weapons that can sink Indian ships from anywhere in China whereas India has no such capability that can realistically be afforded during war. Agni missile is dull in comparison to DF-21 and DF-26 to say nothing of more advanced Chinese ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons. Agni also in service in far smaller numbers. Every year China builds and adds close to 100 MRBM and IRBM type ballistic missiles. India adds Agni missiles at a much much slower pace and the missile itself is not more advanced in fact quite likely far less advanced. Almost greater gap between Indian and Chinese space program and technology levels.
India's Agni longer ranged missiles that can even hit eastern China are reserved for nuclear in case of nuclear war. They cannot be afforded to be used as conventional missiles just to put a conventional crater at a base or airfield which deals only 1 week max of damage before repairs complete. To keep an airfield out of service is on average 50 missiles per week. Attrition for India is out of the question.
While India only has a few dozen Agni missile (of all types) that can reach eastern China, China has a few hundred DF-11, a few hundred DF-15, a few hundred DF-16, a few hundred DF-21, a few hundred DF-26 and a few hundred DF-17.
DF-15, DF-16 are MaRVed or even HGVed as indicated in 2021 tests of DF-15. DF-17 is HGV. DF-21 and 26 have various forms including MaRV ASBM form. Then there is DF-100 scramjet powered HCM.
Now India cannot hit core China with SRBM. It needs MRBM and IRBM. China can hit core India using SRBM and even rocket artillery like WS series rockets and things like tactical ballistic missiles such as BRE series... some MLRS are 100km + and have guidance that can hit moving armor targets. There are thousands upon thousands of these things. China can position all this stuff near south west Tibet and bombard India top half endlessly while longer ranged and higher tier weapons can bombard Indian key assets endlessly. Far more so than India can to China.
PLAAF has only 5 large airbases in Tibet and 2 in Xinjiang. India on the other hand has nearly 25 bases within flight range of the LAC.
So where are the majority of the 3000 aircraft of the PLAAF?
They are on the eastern side.
3500km away from the action.This would mean mid-air refueling. It
would mean a longer time to respond after a primary attack.
And India will be able to track the incoming aircraft long before it reaches the war theater.To launch any air campaign, fighter aircraft have to be deployed close to the border, roughly about 200 km to 300 km from the border of your enemy. Against India, China will have to deploy its fighter aircraft in Tibet and adjacent airfields in Xinjiang. China has 2,100 combat aircraft but most of them are deployed on its eastern seaboard
The Chinese airbases near the Indian border are not adequate for an Indian attack/retaliation. To launch any air campaign, fighter aircraft have to be deployed close to the border, roughly about 200 km to 300 km from the border of your enemy. Against India, China will have to deploy its fighter aircraft in Tibet and adjacent airfields in Xinjiang. China has 2,100 combat aircraft but most of them are deployed on its eastern seaboard. They cannot deploy all of them against India because of limited number of airfields in Tibet. Now, the second point is that to carry out sustained fighter aircraft operations, airfields have to be mutually supporting. By mutually supporting, I mean, that if you take off from an airfield there should be another airfield nearby within 100 or 200 km, so that in case of requirement for diversion etc., you have an alternative airfield. In the In the northern Xinjiang sector’s two airfields Hotan and Kashgar - the distance between them is 450 km while the distance between Hotan and Gargunsa is 550 kms. Hotan to Korla, the distance is 750 km so they are not mutually supportive. In western Tibet, there is only one airfield, Gargunsa. If Gargunsa is bombed by the Indian Air Force, there will be a gap of 1,500 km between Hotan and nearest airfield Hoping.There is another limitation you have. In the airfield, when you park aircraft for fighter operations, they have to be in blast protected shelters - concrete shelters. China doesn’t have any blast protected shelters at any of the airfields.
There is another Logistic problem. That of cargo weight.
Indian airbases with the exception of a few are the on the plains.
Tibet airbases are at an altitude of 4000m above sea level.
The lower air density at such high altitudes hampers jet engines and limits the amount of Weapons and fuel military aircraft can carry while still being able to take off.
Meteorological conditions across the Tibetan Plateau, moreover, are unpredictable, making it difficult to plan high-intensity air campaigns.
In short, the PLAAF cannot hope to run a Sustained air campaign.
What makes you think indian subs can venture near China's coast while Chinese ones which are far greater in numbers and modernity won't do that to India? Not to mention China having far greater anti-sub assets since it does face Japan and US who have the best subs in the world while India faces close to very little sub threat.
Everything Indian will be bombarded because China has no limit on range. India does have extreme limits on how far it can reach with offensive weapons, not only in the capability of those offensive weapons but how many they have and how many types they have. This should be combined with air defence. China has tens of thousands more medium and long range IAD systems. India has Akash and now has some token units of S-400 and India's offensive capability is far weaker.
For every Agni India has and can afford to throw conventionally, China has dozens more MRBM and IRBM not to mention so, so, so much more rocket artillery and SRBM. India has yet to properly put Nirbhay into service while there are more Chinese cruise missiles types than I can remember and more units than I can count.
So tell me exactly how you would perform Malacca strait blockade. Explain it and I will be able to see what you mean. I honestly cannot see that being achieved by India even if India's forces are multiplied by 5. India lacks the advanced weapons.
Like you have sort of done so here but honestly this is like a child's imagination.
"Chinese submarines can be detected off major harbours by anti submarine vessels, especially from air. Each of these harbours will get cover by attack helicopters & frigates.
As all Chinese vessels will have to concentrate on the 4 Indian coastal harbours, they cannot do much of a problem.
Indian submarines can target naval facilities in Hainan island, can bombard HongKong & Shanghai. Bombers from Indian Aircraft carrier can also target Bejing, Canton, Kunming, Fuzhu & coastal naval bases."
Chinese subs can be detected off major habours? Through what mechanism? Do you realize how big the world is? and how short ranged everything is? People have no sense of scale or realization of distance. The search and travel distance and loiter time of India's 8 P-8 aircraft is extremely extremely small for such a task. They would get shot down within 1000km of China by PLAAF alone and 10,000km from China by PLAN. China has more than 80 Y-8 and Y-9 special mission aircraft dedicated to naval warfare from anti-sub to EW and AEWC C4ISR to India's imported 8. There is absolutely zero evidence P-8 is more sophisticated if anything it is 5 years older and has fewer sensor types. China doesn't lag US by much in software and computing. Nor in GaN and sensors technology. In fact China's communications tech at least is better.
Indian frigates and ships cannot venture to SCS in wartime and survive. How will some Indian frigates be able to perform those duties with a PLAN at least 5 times the size and far more modern playing in its own front yard.
What makes you think India can walk towards China without being bludgeoned to pieces FAR away. As for meeting at Malacca Strait, how can india go to Malacca strait and impose a block against a military that is over 5 times larger, more advanced and modern on the whole, and an economy that is 5 times greater with far far greater manufacturing and industrial basis with far greater integration with the world economy that depends far more on China than it does on India. Sure okay let's say China sends 1/5 of PLAN only in a war with India just to keep the main force in eastern sea. That means the two navies are roughly equal. Even assuming 1:1 exchange roughly, India will lose basically its entire naval force (and have nothing to defend against Pakistan) in exchange for China's 1/5 of its naval force and at the end, fail to block Malacca strait.
Keep in mind Malacca strait is not that much closer to India and China has weapons that can sink Indian ships from anywhere in China whereas India has no such capability that can realistically be afforded during war. Agni missile is dull in comparison to DF-21 and DF-26 to say nothing of more advanced Chinese ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons. Agni also in service in far smaller numbers. Every year China builds and adds close to 100 MRBM and IRBM type ballistic missiles. India adds Agni missiles at a much much slower pace and the missile itself is not more advanced in fact quite likely far less advanced. Almost greater gap between Indian and Chinese space program and technology levels.
India's Agni longer ranged missiles that can even hit eastern China are reserved for nuclear in case of nuclear war. They cannot be afforded to be used as conventional missiles just to put a conventional crater at a base or airfield which deals only 1 week max of damage before repairs complete. To keep an airfield out of service is on average 50 missiles per week. Attrition for India is out of the question.
While India only has a few dozen Agni missile (of all types) that can reach eastern China, China has a few hundred DF-11, a few hundred DF-15, a few hundred DF-16, a few hundred DF-21, a few hundred DF-26 and a few hundred DF-17.
DF-15, DF-16 are MaRVed or even HGVed as indicated in 2021 tests of DF-15. DF-17 is HGV. DF-21 and 26 have various forms including MaRV ASBM form. Then there is DF-100 scramjet powered HCM.
Now India cannot hit core China with SRBM. It needs MRBM and IRBM. China can hit core India using SRBM and even rocket artillery like WS series rockets and things like tactical ballistic missiles such as BRE series... some MLRS are 100km + and have guidance that can hit moving armor targets. There are thousands upon thousands of these things. China can position all this stuff near south west Tibet and bombard India top half endlessly while longer ranged and higher tier weapons can bombard Indian key assets endlessly. Far more so than India can to China.
If the Chinese Navy enter the IOR to engage with the Indian Navy, they will have to come through the malacca Strait. And this channel is very narrow; only 2km at its narrowest point.
It will be difficult for them to send naval assets in the IOR without significant resistance from the Indian Navy guarding the entrance via Indira Point.
The second, even more important point is that of OIL.
Oil is the fuel on which the war machine runs.
And 80% of China’s oil is imported through the Malacca strait.
A naval blockade on Malacca, Lombok and Sunda straits will bring upon an oil crisis.
What makes you think indian subs can venture near China's coast while Chinese ones which are far greater in numbers and modernity won't do that to India? Not to mention China having far greater anti-sub assets since it does face Japan and US who have the best subs in the world while India faces close to very little sub threat.
Everything Indian will be bombarded because China has no limit on range. India does have extreme limits on how far it can reach with offensive weapons, not only in the capability of those offensive weapons but how many they have and how many types they have. This should be combined with air defence. China has tens of thousands more medium and long range IAD systems. India has Akash and now has some token units of S-400 and India's offensive capability is far weaker.
For every Agni India has and can afford to throw conventionally, China has dozens more MRBM and IRBM not to mention so, so, so much more rocket artillery and SRBM. India has yet to properly put Nirbhay into service while there are more Chinese cruise missiles types than I can remember and more units than I can count.
So tell me exactly how you would perform Malacca strait blockade. Explain it and I will be able to see what you mean. I honestly cannot see that being achieved by India even if India's forces are multiplied by 5. India lacks the advanced weapons.
Like you have sort of done so here but honestly this is like a child's imagination.
"Chinese submarines can be detected off major harbours by anti submarine vessels, especially from air. Each of these harbours will get cover by attack helicopters & frigates.
As all Chinese vessels will have to concentrate on the 4 Indian coastal harbours, they cannot do much of a problem.
Indian submarines can target naval facilities in Hainan island, can bombard HongKong & Shanghai. Bombers from Indian Aircraft carrier can also target Bejing, Canton, Kunming, Fuzhu & coastal naval bases."
Chinese subs can be detected off major habours? Through what mechanism? Do you realize how big the world is? and how short ranged everything is? People have no sense of scale or realization of distance. The search and travel distance and loiter time of India's 8 P-8 aircraft is extremely extremely small for such a task. They would get shot down within 1000km of China by PLAAF alone and 10,000km from China by PLAN. China has more than 80 Y-8 and Y-9 special mission aircraft dedicated to naval warfare from anti-sub to EW and AEWC C4ISR to India's imported 8. There is absolutely zero evidence P-8 is more sophisticated if anything it is 5 years older and has fewer sensor types. China doesn't lag US by much in software and computing. Nor in GaN and sensors technology. In fact China's communications tech at least is better.
Indian frigates and ships cannot venture to SCS in wartime and survive. How will some Indian frigates be able to perform those duties with a PLAN at least 5 times the size and far more modern playing in its own front yard.
What makes you think India can walk towards China without being bludgeoned to pieces FAR away. As for meeting at Malacca Strait, how can india go to Malacca strait and impose a block against a military that is over 5 times larger, more advanced and modern on the whole, and an economy that is 5 times greater with far far greater manufacturing and industrial basis with far greater integration with the world economy that depends far more on China than it does on India. Sure okay let's say China sends 1/5 of PLAN only in a war with India just to keep the main force in eastern sea. That means the two navies are roughly equal. Even assuming 1:1 exchange roughly, India will lose basically its entire naval force (and have nothing to defend against Pakistan) in exchange for China's 1/5 of its naval force and at the end, fail to block Malacca strait.
Keep in mind Malacca strait is not that much closer to India and China has weapons that can sink Indian ships from anywhere in China whereas India has no such capability that can realistically be afforded during war. Agni missile is dull in comparison to DF-21 and DF-26 to say nothing of more advanced Chinese ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons. Agni also in service in far smaller numbers. Every year China builds and adds close to 100 MRBM and IRBM type ballistic missiles. India adds Agni missiles at a much much slower pace and the missile itself is not more advanced in fact quite likely far less advanced. Almost greater gap between Indian and Chinese space program and technology levels.
India's Agni longer ranged missiles that can even hit eastern China are reserved for nuclear in case of nuclear war. They cannot be afforded to be used as conventional missiles just to put a conventional crater at a base or airfield which deals only 1 week max of damage before repairs complete. To keep an airfield out of service is on average 50 missiles per week. Attrition for India is out of the question.
While India only has a few dozen Agni missile (of all types) that can reach eastern China, China has a few hundred DF-11, a few hundred DF-15, a few hundred DF-16, a few hundred DF-21, a few hundred DF-26 and a few hundred DF-17.
DF-15, DF-16 are MaRVed or even HGVed as indicated in 2021 tests of DF-15. DF-17 is HGV. DF-21 and 26 have various forms including MaRV ASBM form. Then there is DF-100 scramjet powered HCM.
Now India cannot hit core China with SRBM. It needs MRBM and IRBM. China can hit core India using SRBM and even rocket artillery like WS series rockets and things like tactical ballistic missiles such as BRE series... some MLRS are 100km + and have guidance that can hit moving armor targets. There are thousands upon thousands of these things. China can position all this stuff near south west Tibet and bombard India top half endlessly while longer ranged and higher tier weapons can bombard Indian key assets endlessly. Far more so than India can to China.
The easiest way China can overcome their Geography problem is by launching Dongfeng Missiles.
But it will be an unwise move.
When a Missile is in the air, their is no way for the other country to know if the warhead is conventional or nuclear.
India will assume nuclear and launch its own Agni missiles.
And then it will be pouring Dongfengs and Agnis on India and China.
Cloudy with a chance of nukes…
The decision for both countries will be: Counterforce or Countervalue?
Counterforce means attacking enemy’s military installations.
Countervalue means attacking cities and innocent civilian population centers.
Nuclear think-tanks believe that in the fog of war, misinformation and disinformation will be at its peak.
A country starting with Counterforce attack, would assume the other can make (or has made) a Countervalue attack.
Once a single missile is launched between nuclear rivals, it can quickly escalate to Countervalue attacks targeting dozens of big cities including Mumbai and Shanghai.
The death toll will be in millions.