Chinese media estimates 500,000 coronavirus cases in Wuhan, quickly deletes news

[striver44]

Chinese news sites quickly delete reports estimating 500,000 coronavirus cases in Wuhan
40172
By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2020/05/19 16:47


Wuhan woman being tested for coronavirus. (AP photo)

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As Wuhan officials had pledged to test all 11 million of the city's residents amid a new outbreak, news surfaced that potentially 500,000 could be found to be infected with Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19), before suddenly being deleted, causing even many Chinese netizens to ridicule their government.

Last week, Caixin published the results of a seroepidemiological study carried out in April on 11,000 Wuhan residents, which found that five to six percent of those tested had antibodies for COVID-19. If extrapolated to the city's entire population, this would mean approximately 500,000 of the city's residents have been infected with the disease.

Given that the Chinese government has only reported 50,000 cases in Wuhan, it would mean that 90 percent of cases have not been detected. On May 15, Sina reprinted the article, but it was quickly taken offline along with the Caixin piece.

A Google search of the Sina article's original title "Preliminary evaluation of Wuhan nucleic acid tests: at least 500,000 out of 10 million people infected" (初步評估武漢核酸檢測：1000萬人中，至少有50萬人感染) will result in an error message stating "This article does not exist." However, Google cache versions can still be accessed.

Screenshot of cached version of Sina article posted on May 16.

Word soon spread among Chinese netizens that the articles had been taken down and Deutsche Welle cited several netizens on Weibo mocking the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for yet again covering up the real data. One netizen wrote, "openness, transparency, and responsibility," qualities that Xi Jinping (習近平) claimed China had maintained throughout the pandemic during his opening speech at Monday's (May 18) World Health Assembly (WHA).

Another netizen sarcastically wrote, "don't worry, whether it's 500,000 or 1 million, it will be a zero case diagnosis."

Wuhan was locked down from Jan. 23 to April 8, a period spanning over 70 days; however, no new confirmed cases were reported by the government for 36 days until May 9, with five new confirmed cases and 11 asymptomatic cases reported on May 10.

China claims that the total number of confirmed cases of coronavirus nationwide since the start of the outbreak is 82,960, with 4,634 deaths, but the data is considered to be deliberately underestimated by a wide margin. A set of data on coronavirus cases and deaths from the National University of Defense Technology leaked to Foreign Policy revealed that the number of cases in 230 cities across China could actually exceed 640,000.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3936718

On May 13, Wuhan authorities claimed that they were going to test all 11 million of the city's residents for the coronavirus within 10 days. However, given the fact that the city's 60 testing centers can only run 100,000 tests per day, the 10-day target for the city has morphed into a target for individual districts, which will implement their testing on different dates.

 

[Beast]

Wow, the western news agency even managed to grap the news before the great China firewall take it down. They must have already participate this news. Maybe they create it in the first place?

 

[Mista]

Possible.

Chinese epidemiologists themselves claimed that Wuhan might be the safest city in China right now because it has the highest level of immunity among the population. Wuhan's fatality rate is much higher than other places in China as well, which suggest that it's likely that many mild or asymptomatic cases weren't detected in Wuhan.

Also, a randomized antibody test in NY found 13.9% infection rate and suggest that there were 2.7 million cases in New York State alone.

An estimated 13.9% of the New Yorkers have likely had Covid-19, according to preliminary results of coronavirus antibody testing released by Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Thursday.

The state randomly tested 3,000 people at grocery stores and shopping locations across 19 counties in 40 localities to see if they had the antibodies to fight the coronavirus, indicating they have had the virus and recovered from it, Cuomo said.

With more than 19.4 million residents, according to U.S. Census data, the preliminary results indicate that at least 2.7 million New Yorkers have been infected with Covid-19.

The results differed across the state with the largest concentration of positive antibody tests found in New York City at 21.2%. On Long Island, 16.7% of the people tested were positive and in Westchester and Rockland counties, 11.7% of the tests were positive. Westchester County is where the state’s first major outbreak originated. The Covid-19 pandemic across the rest of the state is relatively contained with just 3.6% of positive test results.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new...ents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html

Which means the true fatality rate is likely to be much lower than we have initially seen, maybe around 0.1%.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

So what? It's just a flu. Everywhere there is flu.

 

[faithfulguy]

So what? It's just a flu. Everywhere there is flu.

by now, no one woulD buy that this is just a flu. You have a better luck convincing me the world is flat.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Possible.

Chinese epidemiologists themselves claimed that Wuhan might be the safest city in China right now because it has the highest level of immunity among the population. Wuhan's fatality rate is much higher than other places in China as well, which suggest that it's likely that many mild or asymptomatic cases weren't detected in Wuhan.

Also, a randomized antibody test in NY found 13.9% infection rate and suggest that there were 2.7 million cases in New York State alone.



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new...ents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html

Which means the true fatality rate is likely to be much lower than we have initially seen, maybe around 0.1%.

You don't get immunity until a high proportion of population is infected at the peak (~70%).

This is seen from the mathematics of the SIRD model:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SIRD_model

N = S + I + R + D (total population = susceptible + infected + recovered + deceased)

if N ~ S (number of susceptibles is approximately the same as population),

I/R/D <<< N (fraction of infected/recovered/deceased is much lower than population), then

dI/dt ~ (B-y-u)I (exponential growth in fraction of infected population with parameters B infectivity, y recovery rate, u mortality rate)

Quarantine modifies B, infectivity. If B < y+u, then (B-y-u) < 0, dI/dt < 0, exponential decay in number of infected.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

by now, no one woulD buy that this is just a flu. You have a better luck convincing me the world is flat.

Every day there is new coronavirus. Nothing special about this one.

 

[Kai Liu]

WTF... from a personal blog... A click bait shxt cited by a Taiwan fake shxt media...
Note the author:
‘别人心动三’

:

and:
'最朴实的甘肃农村生活' means 'The simplest Gansu (province) rural life'... LMAO...
https://t.cj.sina.com.cn/k/article/author_article/7044388856

Next time, let's post something like ' There are 100 million aboriginal indonesians with AIDS' in our personal blog...and get a screen shot...And you should post it here...lol...

Try harder... clown..

 

[faithfulguy]

Every day there is new coronavirus. Nothing special about this one.

you must be joking. This is the only one that shut down the world economy. You need to stop this conspiracy theory.

remember, Donald Trump does not drink his own kool aide. He only serve it to others.

 

[Menthol]

It could be.

Because up to 80% of the infected person is asymptomatic.

Not to mention those who got sick in November-December for misdiagnosing for the flu.

And got cured by itself, are positive for coronavirus antibody.

All the numbers could be up to 500,000 people.