The future relations? one word: difficult.
Everybody knows what's going on, it just has to be played out all by itself in nature.
A. China population is pretty much apathetic to all things Indian. However, there is the border issue doesn't seem to be able to go anywhere.
B. Chinese business wants Indian market. Indians are suspicious of Chinese and resist everything.
C. Chinese needs more secure access to ME and Africa to advance its economic interest, and Islamabad has been a staunch supporter of everything Beijing, Unfortunately, India is just out there by geography. Indians become more suspicious. However, I do believe Beijing overlooked Indians strategic security needs on this issue. However, India failed to acknowledge that there will never be strategic security for India against Beijing because China has Tibet, Chinese missiles and planes can always reach anywhere easily within northern India. If Indians never trust us, no matter what Indians do, what Chinese say, Indians can never feel secure, and this is a sad reality. We are willing to help, but we can't. Geography is geography.
D. By establishing trade route through Pakistan, Chinese hope it can also benefit Pakistan financially, and help to develop Pakistan faster. Pakistan trusts us, they never had a problem of China getting better, they know it's good for Pakistan as well when we get better. That's one of the reason for Gwadar port. However, everybody reads this as a military maneuver. It has certain military values, but I believe its more for financial gains for China, and also it would help Pakistan.
E. China is not happy that Pakistan feels in a constant threat from Indian military invasion. When Pakistan suffers, some how Chinese can feel the pain, its not politics or based on interests. That's why Pakistani leaders say our two countries relationship is unique. If Chinese foreign interest is hurt, usually we are pretty mad. If Islamabad is hurt, we can feel the pain. This is indeed a very special relationship.
F. Two many things are mis-read by both sides. The two people can't trust each other, and that's the root of all the `issues'. This fact is not going to change, as people on two sides can't mutate that fast and hope for a miracle. ;-) Chinese is simply doing stuff that is commensurate with its economic progress. And its activities inevitably have stoked pressure on the Sino-Indian relationship.
G. I didn't expect India's response is this tense, we started out naturally with Pakistan with no intention to hurt India, we believe we are doing something good for Pakistan, and also very good for China. Because of grandeur international politics involved in here, I personally feel Pakistan is sand-witched in between, sadly. This makes things more complex since last thing we want to do is to push our agenda and make Pakistan feel pressured. I don't know what's next.
To solve all this mess, India's attitude is the key. India can do a lot more to make the three countries peaceful and develop themselves, and benefit their people respectively. But for India to do anything, it is almost asking our friends in new Delhi to make a leap in faith, and I know it's not fair.
Difficult.
WarProfessor your speculative theory on India, China relations raises some very valid points
But i am afraid your view on the whole situation is very 1 dimensional.
You have not only limited your speculations to relations between only India, Pakistan and China. but also only to the south Asian theater. Thus making all your points inadequate to explain the true complexity of problems and challenges faced by our Aspiring nations.
The Pakistan issue with India is in all rights not an issue that should be China's problem, however Pakistan seems to think that China will fight its battles for it, this is not the case however. China will show its solidarity to its troubled ally with diplomatic or economic support but that's all, it will not be solving Pakistan's problems.To China's credit it has stayed out of the Kashmir affair, perhaps a sign that it still hopes that India and China can one day cooperate more readily than today.
To Pakistan, China's success are not necessarily yours. A +1
to China does not mean a +1 to Pakistan
, and that's is something that most Pakistani's don't seem to want to believe. You should aspire more to develop your own nation
and not stare at awe in the shadow of another
.
The real problems between China And India is obviously the border issue. Both countries are to blame for this India in the 60's and China now in the present. Oblivious claiming India should have accepted Chairman Mao's concessions back in the 60's as a gesture of friendship. But in our arrogance, we let let pride cloud our judgments , and we all now how history was written.Mistakes were made , Yes But that was then what about now?
China has made the claim that the entire state of Archangel Pradesh
which is home to millions of Indian citizens that have lived there for generations. Now China is the one with the forward policy making demands that cant possibly be met or agreed to. India is willing to concede its claim in Aksai chin but china wants Arunachal PRadesh.
This is the Flash point to the hostility between both nations. But what is the fuel, well simply Its India's rapid growth that seems to possible mirror that of China's. Which unfortunately means That due to India and China's lack of cooperation in the present , both nations are most likely to be in direct competition with each other on the global stage in the near future over meeting energy need's, natural resources , and diplomatic influence.
If we can build a foundation of cooperation now then the future can be far more beneficial to both countries.
But you may ask why is China adopting this policy of not conceding its claim of Archanchel Pradesh. Simply its due to Geo-political. China has far more power and diplomatic influence now then India , and it wants to take advantage of it to widen the gap between India and China as much as possible, China's growth will need to bottom out as with any other economic cycle. and coincidentally this bottoming out is set to occur when India's growth will be reaching full speed, India has the potential to catch up to China at this time.
But why would China be concerned about this simply put the first century of the new millennium has a name it the "China century", And India has no place in it as a global power. China has been driven by one goal to be no 1, to revive the Middle Kingdom to all its glory, a noble task. that is being shouldered by the Chinese people. Things always don't go as planned India's rise was not expected by anyone not even the Indian's expected the progress we have made in the last 20 years. The sooner China can learn to share this century with little brother India. and change the "china century" to the "China-India century", The more positive the future China India relations will be.
P.S
I know some of my statements can also be considered 1 dimensional i don't have time to go into full detail , so any query u make on what i said, i am willing to clarify in more detail.
so plz don't flame
about my comments before u give me a chance to clarify any discrepancies