I wanted to stay away from this conversation, but I guess I can no longer resist it.
Going back to the statement that triggered this argument, "a
prosperous BD is in India's interest". There is partial truth to that. But the statement needs to be qualified to read, "a
not so poor AND submissive BD is in India's best interest."
There is absolutely no benefit to India if Bangladesh is both prosperous and have a strong independent identity. Rather it is a threat to their dominance in the region. An economically strong and independent Bangladesh can easily thwart any future CAA style attempt by Indian Bhakts to forcefully push-out their Muslims to Bangladesh. For all the niceties of the current Indian leadership towards Bangladesh, let's not forget their political party's ideology is one strictly based along the idea of having a Hindu nation back to the pre-Mughal era. Hence we see the propagation of revisionist history in their media, and marginalization of their Muslim population. If anything, that alone poses the greatest threat to peace in this region.
India does not need to invade Bangladesh militarily, they just need to ensure they continue with their covert tactics - cultural invasion, influencing and subduing minds through the society's intellectuals and media- propagating narratives such as atheism and secularism is the way of the future and Islam is backwards and dangerous. They simply need to ensure a population in BD who are submissive and will not go out of hand so to speak.
But despite all that, trade and regional cooperation is needed between the two countries under circumstances which benefit Bangladesh. We simply cannot avoid it because of our geography. But we need to keep factors like these in mind -
- Trading Strategic resources and dependency in general: importing electricity from India is only a good idea if the total volume is less than 5-10% or even lower of our entire portfolio. We are seeing a live demonstration of how EU is scrambling to find alternate sources after years of dependency on Russian gas. Similarly, raw materials for our key industries such as cotton and supplies of food - we need to consistently a diverse range of suppliers and not be largely dependent on India.
- Regional security: I am all for cooperation to fight trans-border criminal activities and insurgency and/or piracy. However, while we have taken out ULFA to India's benefit (Source), are we getting the same kind of support from India in getting rid of separatists in CHT who are hiding inside Indian territory? If anything, the violence in CHT has gone up over the recent years with PCJSS and UPDFs fighting amongst each other and killing civilians and military personnel in the process.
- Connectivity: BD allows connectivity to India's North-East through transshipment. Why aren't we getting the same deal to access market in Nepal? How much economic benefit are we getting out of the facility we are providing to India? If BD is to go ahead and provide Transit as well, we need to ask what BD will get in return and is it comparable to what we are trading off?
Sheikh Hasina, so far has done a reasonably good job in balancing India (and by extension the West) and China, although perhaps at the expense of having a toothless military filled with "Yes"-men taking over military leadership and military failing to add any serious offensive ability. Nonetheless, there are signs which indicate she understands the risk India poses to sovereignty of Bangladesh and hence we see her with a balanced foreign policy.
Bangladesh should continue to remain neutral and not take any side. We cannot afford to be on any one particular camp.
The real challenge for Bangladesh would be when Hasina's successors come to power. I am afraid there are far too many within BAL senior leadership who lack character & patriotism and are highly susceptible to become a puppet and do India's bidding. These individuals and their affiliates are corrupt to the core. The corruption in this country is at an unprecedented at the moment. For instance,
Funds deposited by Bangladeshi citizens and banks with different Swiss banks witnessed a massive rise of 55 percent to 871 million Swiss francs. This does not even take into account the money laundered through hidden channel, like our Star boy PK Halder sitting in India with Billions of stolen money.
No one in Bangladesh can make money without connections to the ruling party. While India may not have anything to do with money laundered out of Bangladesh, it does show the mentality of those in position of power in Bangladesh. They are screaming we are corrupt & devoid of morals, and ready to sell our soul to the highest bidder.
So to conclude this long post - while we should trade and cooperate in areas which are mutually beneficial, we should never feel the false sense of security to the idea that India is our friend. Because it is not. They are our neighbor and we can't choose what neighbor we have. They will always look after their self-interest and we should look after our own. And unfortunately as it happens, some of our self-interests are mutually exclusive.