Bussard Ramjet
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Ok, So I would like to have a discussion about demographics here. China has almost always had 26-28% of the world's population. And that too without including vassal states. Though historical estimates are aplenty and the ones before 1900s can vary a lot, there is still a lot of consensus among many people about demographic situation.
Why are demographics important?
The most fundamental unit for economic productivity in the world are humans. We have still not come to the stage when the advances in robotics and artificial intelligence could make humans obsolete.
The economy of a country is primarily determined by:
1. The number of humans
2. The amount of workforce
3. Fertility and Rate of Increase in the Population (This doesn't contribute to economics in the short term, but determines the human resources of the future.)
4. Productivity of humans
Natural Resources are a thing of course, but as we know, a human is still worth a lot of money, and is quite a productive unit in the economy.
Historical Trend:
Generally in history, population was determined by the availability of resources, most important of all, the availability of fresh water. Before the advent of civilization and agriculture, people were mostly nomadic, which limited their ability for large groups. Agriculture and Civilization was the game changer, that made large resident populations exist. The biggest of all was as we know in the Yellow and Yangtze valley deltas-- the fertile soil, along with fresh water, good environment, safe place, led to a large surge in population and hence civilization. It was the result of this large resident 'civilized' population that came out to be the Chinese Civilization, these people created everything.
Another game changer occurred during the Industrial revolution. Though technology and productivity have almost always been important, it was here, that we witnessed the historic disparity of productivity. Europe took off, productivity, technology and culture progressed. Coupled with unlimited supply of natural resources via Colonization, it led to the sudden explosion of Output and wealth. Not only this, the same part of the world also colonized, and used demographic and military warfare to subsume 3 continents of the present day. ( 2 Americas, Australia)
The final game changer -- Globalization. With the advent of the system of globalization, supported by international financial systems, transnational movement of capital, separation of church and state, boom of the private sector, property and technology -- first time after a long time, developing countries found it easy to promote productivity by entering a globalized world, inviting foreign capital and technology. The capital and technology, unlike during the days of Industrialization was not solely owned by the state. Private Players, in search from profit, live low productive places whose productivity can be augmented easily. It is of course, need less to say that it gets increasingly difficult to raise productivity from say $100 to $1000 to $5000 to $10000 to $ 25000 to $50000 to further.
Hence, in this globalized world, population, the size of it started to be again seen as an asset rather than a liability.
Present Day Demographic Principles:
1. Natural Resources don't seem to be any barrier to population growth. Science, and Technology have made the basic needs of humans for survival very pedestal.
2. The biggest limiter of growth seems to be education, individualism, and ambition.
It is generally found that the more a society progresses towards what is called the modern society, people start seeing kids as liabilities. People become very self-centered, individualistic. The motivations that dissuade them from having kids are:
1. Late marriage and setting down.
2. Opportunity cost of time that has to be spent.
3. Cost of raising the kid.
4. Disruption in the lives of parents, both economically and psychologically, during pregnancy, and post-birth care.
5. Individualism and loss of family ties, where family becomes increasingly less important and distant.
Now, I will discuss the Chinese Demographics in detail.
Why are demographics important?
The most fundamental unit for economic productivity in the world are humans. We have still not come to the stage when the advances in robotics and artificial intelligence could make humans obsolete.
The economy of a country is primarily determined by:
1. The number of humans
2. The amount of workforce
3. Fertility and Rate of Increase in the Population (This doesn't contribute to economics in the short term, but determines the human resources of the future.)
4. Productivity of humans
Natural Resources are a thing of course, but as we know, a human is still worth a lot of money, and is quite a productive unit in the economy.
Historical Trend:
Generally in history, population was determined by the availability of resources, most important of all, the availability of fresh water. Before the advent of civilization and agriculture, people were mostly nomadic, which limited their ability for large groups. Agriculture and Civilization was the game changer, that made large resident populations exist. The biggest of all was as we know in the Yellow and Yangtze valley deltas-- the fertile soil, along with fresh water, good environment, safe place, led to a large surge in population and hence civilization. It was the result of this large resident 'civilized' population that came out to be the Chinese Civilization, these people created everything.
Another game changer occurred during the Industrial revolution. Though technology and productivity have almost always been important, it was here, that we witnessed the historic disparity of productivity. Europe took off, productivity, technology and culture progressed. Coupled with unlimited supply of natural resources via Colonization, it led to the sudden explosion of Output and wealth. Not only this, the same part of the world also colonized, and used demographic and military warfare to subsume 3 continents of the present day. ( 2 Americas, Australia)
The final game changer -- Globalization. With the advent of the system of globalization, supported by international financial systems, transnational movement of capital, separation of church and state, boom of the private sector, property and technology -- first time after a long time, developing countries found it easy to promote productivity by entering a globalized world, inviting foreign capital and technology. The capital and technology, unlike during the days of Industrialization was not solely owned by the state. Private Players, in search from profit, live low productive places whose productivity can be augmented easily. It is of course, need less to say that it gets increasingly difficult to raise productivity from say $100 to $1000 to $5000 to $10000 to $ 25000 to $50000 to further.
Hence, in this globalized world, population, the size of it started to be again seen as an asset rather than a liability.
Present Day Demographic Principles:
1. Natural Resources don't seem to be any barrier to population growth. Science, and Technology have made the basic needs of humans for survival very pedestal.
2. The biggest limiter of growth seems to be education, individualism, and ambition.
It is generally found that the more a society progresses towards what is called the modern society, people start seeing kids as liabilities. People become very self-centered, individualistic. The motivations that dissuade them from having kids are:
1. Late marriage and setting down.
2. Opportunity cost of time that has to be spent.
3. Cost of raising the kid.
4. Disruption in the lives of parents, both economically and psychologically, during pregnancy, and post-birth care.
5. Individualism and loss of family ties, where family becomes increasingly less important and distant.
Now, I will discuss the Chinese Demographics in detail.
