Chinese Demographics

[magic-007]

I've read it. Chinese and Koreans are different though. If there's anything Chinese are good at besides cooking and studying, its producing Chinese babies. Koreans have a more rigid culture than Chinese and higher pressure lifestyle than Chinese. Unlike South Korea, there is no single company or conglomerate that makes up most of China's GDP, meaning that people have freedom to quit stressful jobs they don't like. Stressful jobs is one of the biggest contributors to low birth rates in Korea/Japan. There's a very large rural population. Chinese food prices do not depend on the global market. Both mean that there are no hard limits (yet) on Chinese population. The cultural expectation is for married couples to have children. Childless couples that are now common in Korea are unheard of in China.

Also, I think the demographics may be underreported due to people hiding from the family planning officials.

I'm pretty confident that within a few years the birth rate will stabilize or somewhat reverse. It won't ever down to Korean or Japanese levels.

your thinks are too optimistic. with the constant development of society, the low birth rate is a trend.

 

[Nan Yang]

This reminds me during the 70s when headline news were about population explosion and the earth would run out of space !!!

 

[TaiShang]

Better to stop feed this troll. The guy is obsessed with China and although the forum is economic-security oriented, brings up issues of regime, population, ethnicity... Whatever that his Indian mind believes may incite flamewar and agitation.

This population issue the member is trying to bring up again and again. From here, he will probably jump to how Mao killed so many Chinese.

On another thread about how China oppresses by limiting Western values. This is the same guy that asked China to re-install KMT and then got banned. If the guy does not end up in Mao (in any thread), he ends up in Tienanmen. You see the intention?

My advice: Just ignore. You will get no value. Ad it is the last concern to talk China's internal matters with an Indian.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Better to stop feed this troll. The guy is obsessed with China and although the forum is economic-security oriented, brings up issues of regime, population, ethnicity... Whatever that his Indian mind believes may incite flamewar and agitation.

This population issue the member is trying to bring up again and again. From here, he will probably jump to how Mao killed so many Chinese.

On another thread about how China oppresses by limiting Western values. This is the same guy that asked China to re-install KMT and then got banned. If the guy does not end up in Mao (in any thread), he ends up in Tienanmen. You see the intention?

My advice: Just ignore. You will get no value. Ad it is the last concern to talk China's internal matters with an Indian.

I just don't understand what's up with you, that you can't talk and have a conversation instead of behaving like this. Isn't the whole point of the forum to have discussions? I'm not trolling, nor do I ever use any profanity whatsoever. Yes, I may tend to digress sometimes from the main topic at hand, but believe me I am here to just have a discussion in all earnest.

Also, I never knew this blog is purely economic-security related. I would like to confirm it from other members because I have seen many other kind of topics being posted here. I post on things that I think are the most relevant for China's future and which are missing in this forum. There is no limit of news and discussions on economy, defence, and even on technology, but there seems to be hardly any focus on things like these that can make or break a nation.

As for KMT or CCP, I am not against anything. But yes I believe that perhaps if KMT and CCP have come to a civil negotiation, that would have been the perfect thing. In a society you need to have the representation of all sectors and viewpoints, not merely the ones that you agree with.

PS- Just to correct you, I have never been banned or anything like that, though for some posts my posts went into moderation mode.

 

[Yizhi]

I just don't understand what's up with you, that you can't talk and have a conversation instead of behaving like this. Isn't the whole point of the forum to have discussions? I'm not trolling, nor do I ever use any profanity whatsoever. Yes, I may tend to digress sometimes from the main topic at hand, but believe me I am here to just have a discussion in all earnest.

Also, I never knew this blog is purely economic-security related. I would like to confirm it from other members because I have seen many other kind of topics being posted here. I post on things that I think are the most relevant for China's future and which are missing in this forum. There is no limit of news and discussions on economy, defence, and even on technology, but there seems to be hardly any focus on things like these that can make or break a nation.

As for KMT or CCP, I am not against anything. But yes I believe that perhaps if KMT and CCP have come to a civil negotiation, that would have been the perfect thing. In a society you need to have the representation of all sectors and viewpoints, not merely the ones that you agree with.

PS- Just to correct you, I have never been banned or anything like that, though for some posts my posts went into moderation mode.

i can see you have a great interest in China which i appreciate. but your posts from where i stand look like a collection of conventional Western wisdom (i'm not against it btw) that had a very poor record of predicting China's future trajectory. and the topics you chose are huge ones which have been discussed fiercely in Chinese forums for over a decade that i'm personally bored by them.
if you are really into Chinese politics and social issues, go dig further into the coming reforms that we talk about all the time. many of your questions are already being answered. that would be more productive.

 

[bolo]

Sigh...this is not the first such post on PDF and I highly doubt it will be the last. I will repeat what I have discussed in the past.

The fundamental problem with these articles is that they are attempting to analyze China as if it is another western country. These models and trend predictions are made with the assumption that Chinese culture is the same the western culture, Chinese history is the same as western history and Chinese politics works the same way as their western counterpart. Needless to say, these assumptions are incorrect; therefore, it should not be surprising that the predictions made based on these assumption are often inaccurate.

For fertility rate, the western model often neglect very important parameters such as government policies and culture attitude. This is not surprising, since in the past few decades, these models are only applied to western countries or very westernized countries. These countries typically has similar government policies towards fertility rate (basically nothing) and their cultures are similar anyway. If you apply the same predictions to countries with different styles of leadership and culture, such as the historical USSR (different style of leadership), Muslim nations (different leadership style and different culture) or China (different leadership style and different culture), the method inevitably breaks down. In fact, even Japan and Korea act differently. This is because even though they have similar leadership styles to their western counterparts, their culture is quite different. This is why even though both North European nations and Japan has similar portion of aged population, Japan is still much more competitive than their North European counterparts.

For China specifically, the first and foremost thing to remember is that China is THE MOST policy driven country in the world. The current fertility trend is an artificial controlled trend created by social and political policies. Consequently, increasing the fertility rate is really only a matter of policy modification. This is vastly in contrast to western countries or countries with weak central government such India where the fertility rate is only affected by the overall economic development, something that is very difficult to change.

Start a thread about how indian population explosion will cause civil war in india, lol. Thise indian have no shame imo.

This reminds me during the 70s when headline news were about population explosion and the earth would run out of space !!!

unfortunately that brit bastard who started that shit about population growth and not enough food for the world is still at it, LOL. People just don't learn

i can see you have a great interest in China which i appreciate. but your posts from where i stand look like a collection of conventional Western wisdom (i'm not against it btw) that had a very poor record of predicting China's future trajectory. and the topics you chose are huge ones which have been discussed fiercely in Chinese forums for over a decade that i'm personally bored by them.
if you are really into Chinese politics and social issues, go dig further into the coming reforms that we talk about all the time. many of your questions are already being answered. that would be more productive.

他是一个拖钓

 

[bolo]

你可以降低生育率，却无法提高生育率。这不是改变政策就有用的。改变政策有什么用？无非就是增加产假，发婴儿花红，教育免费以及廉租房等，但是这些都不足以提高生育率。因为生育率下降是城市化的必然。你去看看周边的80后，90后，结婚年龄是不是比他们的父母推后了？我国六七十年代生育率高达6-7，现在有几个父母愿意生育这么多孩子的？我周边同事几乎没有愿意生两个以上的，25岁以前结婚的很少。文化已经变了，现在是城市化，而且已经经历了工业化了，然而你们却以为靠政策就能提升生育率，我只能说政策的作用微乎其微

The Chinese in Canada are urbanized but they tend to have two kids or more per family because there are support from government policies, ie. such as 1 year mat leave, free hospital visit and no charge for giving birth (through taxes paid).
Although Chinese government have lifted the one child policy earlier in the year, it's still too complicated such as applying to have another kid (which is someone laughable as it spoils the mood, lol) or if your first kid is a girl. They should have just out right ban it and say, if you want or can afford to go right ahead and have two or more children. To ease the burden for family implement policies that favour families who want to have children.

 

[Shotgunner51]

I hate to sound like a proponent of Malthusian theoretical framework, but we can't ignore the ecological aspect of population dynamic(s).

Please refer: Population dynamics - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Wow big words dude, can you briefly explain in plain language?
Just a couple of lines would be adequate.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

因为生育率下降是城市化的必然。

Correct. The more urban you make the population the more daily cost pressures come into play. You also force them into controlled consumerism. This greatly influences the number of children.

 

[Aepsilons]

Wow big words dude, can you briefly explain in plain language?
Just a couple of lines would be adequate.

The essential 'gist' of this --- is what we call the exponential growth model --- Nt+1 = λNt. As population numbers increase, the estimate of the intrinsic rate of natural increase; over a short period of time, tends to decrease. This means that there is a general relationship between the intrinsic rate of increase and population density. This is a cyclic phenomena, however, and the relationship between population growth is based on a cyclical model.

This is based on the concept of biological ecology population; when a particular species thrives and consumes its resources, and is devoid of natural predation, it will then experience an absolute lack of resources --- population will then drop. Eventually, with the taxing pressure on resources being abated, said resource will thrive yet again. Thus enabling the species to regrow numbers.

How this applies to human population? It does, quite frankly. If one studies the period of European Industrial Revolution during the 19th century, the American industrial revolution in mid 19th century, and the Japanese Industrial Revolution in the mid 19th century --- one thing that was apparent was the rise in population growth rates in said societies. As a society matures and transforms from production (manufacturing) oriented to say high service oriented, experiences high HDI praxis , then, it is only an eventuality that growth rate will whine down as there is a positive correlation with population growth rate and high quality of societal living.

Do note that high population growth rate is always a universally seen in war torn regions or in regions that are rebuilding from war --- population growth, specifically high breeding rates , is essential in repairing the populatory demographic.Please refer to image #1.

Image #1: Notice high birth rates in extremely poor , maldeveloped, war-torn regions; ergo, Africa, Central Asia, Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.

Regards,

 

[Shotgunner51]

The essential 'gist' of this --- is what we call the exponential growth model --- Nt+1 = λNt. As population numbers increase, the estimate of the intrinsic rate of natural increase; over a short period of time, tends to decrease. This means that there is a general relationship between the intrinsic rate of increase and population density. This is a cyclic phenomena, however, and the relationship between population growth is based on a cyclical model.

This is based on the concept of biological ecology population; when a particular species thrives and consumes its resources, and is devoid of natural predation, it will then experience an absolute lack of resources --- population will then drop. Eventually, with the taxing pressure on resources being abated, said resource will thrive yet again. Thus enabling the species to regrow numbers.

How this applies to human population? It does, quite frankly. If one studies the period of European Industrial Revolution during the 19th century, the American industrial revolution in mid 19th century, and the Japanese Industrial Revolution in the mid 19th century --- one thing that was apparent was the rise in population growth rates in said societies. As a society matures and transforms from production (manufacturing) oriented to say high service oriented, experiences high HDI praxis , then, it is only an eventuality that growth rate will whine down as there is a positive correlation with population growth rate and high quality of societal living.

Do note that high population growth rate is always a universally seen in war torn regions or in regions that are rebuilding from war --- population growth, specifically high breeding rates , is essential in repairing the populatory demographic.Please refer to image #1.

Image #1: Notice high birth rates in extremely poor , maldeveloped, war-torn regions; ergo, Africa, Central Asia, Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.

Regards,

Hey that's way more than a few lines dude, it's OK I grasp the idea now.

Seems like there is direct relationship between prosperity, birth rate and life expectancy.

List of countries by life expectancy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Aepsilons]

Hey that's way more than a few lines dude, it's OK I grasp the idea now.

Seems like there is direct relationship between prosperity, birth rate and life expectancy.

List of countries by life expectancy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

he he he, sorry, mon ami, could not help it. Yes, there is a direct relationship between prosperity and rate of birth and life expectancy. For example, the population growth rate in Japan may not be as high as some impoverished 3rd world state(s), but Japanese life expectancy is one of the highest in the world --- where it is normal to live up to 85 years old, and older ! Quality of living in Japan -- is very high -- compared to many other countries. The healthcare system is considered one of the best, pension system is good.

Now let's compare that to say a country like Somalia, Swaziland et al , where population growth rate is over 4%, but life expectancy is up to 40-50 years old, there is little to no medical systems and what healthcare system is available is either underfunded, unprepared to meet virulent strains of pathogens, and limited in its scope. Pension systesm are nill, education is poor, and overall HDI is utterly dismal.

There is emphasis on Quality vs Quantity. Quality supersedes.

So, for China , which is experiencing qualitative changes, should a leveling population demographic be a concern? I do not think so. If China's growth (population) stabilizes to 1-2% level -- that is an example of sustained development and the more resources can enact visible changes to society.

 

[Shotgunner51]

he he he, sorry, mon ami, could not help it. Yes, there is a direct relationship between prosperity and rate of birth and life expectancy. For example, the population growth rate in Japan may not be as high as some impoverished 3rd world state(s), but Japanese life expectancy is one of the highest in the world --- where it is normal to live up to 85 years old, and older ! Quality of living in Japan -- is very high -- compared to many other countries. The healthcare system is considered one of the best, pension system is good.

Now let's compare that to say a country like Somalia, Swaziland et al , where population growth rate is over 4%, but life expectancy is up to 40-50 years old, there is little to no medical systems and what healthcare system is available is either underfunded, unprepared to meet virulent strains of pathogens, and limited in its scope. Pension systesm are nill, education is poor, and overall HDI is utterly dismal.

There is emphasis on Quality vs Quantity. Quality supersedes.

So, for China , which is experiencing qualitative changes, should a leveling population demographic be a concern? I do not think so. If China's growth (population) stabilizes to 1-2% level -- that is an example of sustained development and the more resources can enact visible changes to society.

LOL ... pardon me for being just a rough guy, not sophisticated like you or Yizhi ...

Check this, China mainland (excl HK/Macau/TW) ranks 65 out of 193 at 76 years of life expectancy:

So I think it is simple, China just need to do like HK, Singapore, Japan etc., like other East Asian states, continuing to improve HDI's, so that people live longer, healthier and smarter, and enjoy good life. I observe in JP/HK etc., people aged 50-60 are make a lot more money than the young guys, so a relatively old society might mean a relatively rich society am I right?

 

[Yizhi]

@Nihonjin1051
at first i thought by 'Malthusian' you mean books like The Population Bomb?

Hey that's way more than a few lines dude, it's OK I grasp the idea now.

Seems like there is direct relationship between prosperity, birth rate and life expectancy.

List of countries by life expectancy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

there were some TED videos about global population growth a few years back. Hans Roslings (?) i think.

LOL ... pardon me for being just a rough guy, not sophisticated like you or Yizhi ...

Check this, China mainland (excl HK/Macau/TW) ranks 65 out of 193 at 76 years of life expectancy:

View attachment 189723

So I think it is simple, China just need to do like HK, Singapore, Japan etc., like other East Asian states, continuing to improve HDI's, so that people live longer, healthier and smarter, and enjoy good life. I observe in JP/HK etc., people aged 50-60 are make a lot more money than the young guys, so a relatively old society might mean a relatively rich society am I right?

we are actually quite good at HDI already.

note China is the big blue one.

 

[Aepsilons]

So I think it is simple, China just need to do like HK, Singapore, Japan etc., like other East Asian states, continuing to improve HDI's, so that people live longer, healthier and smarter, and enjoy good life. I observe in JP/HK etc., people aged 50-60 are make a lot more money than the young guys, so a relatively old society might mean a relatively rich society am I right?

Absolutely !! I don't understand why some people view a lowered population growth rate as a pure bad thing , i mean, it is the goal of any government or nation to have a healthy population that can enjoy the services provided and available for them. Would you rather have a nation of say 100 million, enjoy a GDP per capita close to $40k a year (USD), have high life expectancy (85+), high educational system (considered one of the best in the world), high patent rates in the world, high research rates, high scientific publication rates, great child care, great retirement system. or be a nation of say 300 million, but have poor gdp per capita, poor educational system, poor retirement system, poor scientific and publication rate, et al ?

It is the goal -- the Responsibility -- of any government to provide services for ALL of its citizens. To eradicate poverty, to eradicate child abuse, female abuse, rapes, starvation, and overall to eradicate the percentage of population that live in Low Socioeconomic Stratum. Any government that fails to achieve this mandate , yet succeeds in feeding its military and elites -- needs to implement NECESSARY and URGENT reform.

So , in that context, China is going in the right direction. Chinese GDP per capita is rising, education is improving, health care is improving, work is available and overall quality of life is improving. It is going in the RIGHT direction. So why worry about population growth changes? It is only natural -- a sign of a developing nation.

at first i thought by 'Malthusian' you mean books like The Population Bomb?

Yes , somewhat similar to that. The theory of Malthus is fixed on two principles:

1. Human growth is assymetric
2. Natural resource growth is symetric

There will be a point in time when population will exceed natural resource(s) in a given nation and when that happens, there will be radical starvation , and a poor standard of living, practically a cataclysmic situation. Hence Malthus, and many biologists that shared his vision, proposed that humans enact methods to control human growth. We see this now int he form of contraceptive uses , planned parenthood programs.

Tho I don't agree with some of the solutions advocated by Malthus, I do agree with some of his theoretical frameworks. As it does bear significance and truth and many statistical processes in epidemiological studies are based on his principles.