Chinese Demographics

[Aepsilons]

sign?

生肖

 

[sahaliyan]

No, that is due to Plaza Accord. What i'm saying is that immigration is not a viable option. Chinese will need to have more kids.

There are many reasons,but their aging population surely one of the reasons
Most immigrats in Europe go to northern European countries,not southern ones like Greece and Spain,yet the southern ones have higher unemployment rate,and there are very few immigration in east Europe,even the population of east Europe is decline now,the east Europeans still go to west Europe in large numbers.You can see in London,full of Polish and Romanian people

 

[sahaliyan]

Compare the population of 2011 and 2001
Han 1225932641 1159400000 +5.74%
Zhuang 16926381 16178811 +4.62%
Hui 10586087 9816802 +7.84%
Manchu 10387958 10682263 -2.76%
Uyghur 10069346 8399393 +19.88%
Miao 9426007 8940116 +5.43%
Yi 8714393 7762286 +12.27%
Tujia 8353912 8028133 +4.06%
Tibetan 6282187 5416021 +15.99%
Mongol 5981840 5813947 +2.89%
Dong 2879974 2960293 -2.71%
Buyi 2870034 2971460 -3.41%
Yao 2796003 2637421 +6.01%
Bai 1933510 1858063 +4.06%
Korean 1830929 1923842 -4.83%
Hani 1660932 1439673 +15.37%
Li 1463064 1247814 +17.25%
Kazakh 1462588 1250458 +16.96%
Dai 1261311 1158989 +8.83%
The others' population each less than 1 million

 

[bolo]

Compare the population of 2011 and 2001
Han 1225932641 1159400000 +5.74%
Zhuang 16926381 16178811 +4.62%
Hui 10586087 9816802 +7.84%
Manchu 10387958 10682263 -2.76%
Uyghur 10069346 8399393 +19.88%
Miao 9426007 8940116 +5.43%
Yi 8714393 7762286 +12.27%
Tujia 8353912 8028133 +4.06%
Tibetan 6282187 5416021 +15.99%
Mongol 5981840 5813947 +2.89%
Dong 2879974 2960293 -2.71%
Buyi 2870034 2971460 -3.41%
Yao 2796003 2637421 +6.01%
Bai 1933510 1858063 +4.06%
Korean 1830929 1923842 -4.83%
Hani 1660932 1439673 +15.37%
Li 1463064 1247814 +17.25%
Kazakh 1462588 1250458 +16.96%
Dai 1261311 1158989 +8.83%
The others' population each less than 1 million

Due to special treatment for minorities thus creating this problem with terrorism in Xinjiang. One of the few mistakes made by CPC

 

[sahaliyan]

Due to special treatment for minorities thus creating this problem with terrorism in Xinjiang. One of the few mistakes made by CPC

The muslims tend to have more kids,not even need to mention Uyghurs,what about the so-called "moderate" Huis,when you eat muslim food,you can find how many Hui kids don't go to schools but worked in muslim restaurants,I don't say Islam is bad,but muslims society have serious problems

 

[bolo]

The muslims tend to have more kids,not even need to mention Uyghurs,what about the so-called "moderate" Huis,when you eat muslim food,you can find how many Hui kids don't go to schools but worked in muslim restaurants,I don't say Islam is bad,but muslims society have serious problems

No need to be politically correct. Being that is just stupid. Muslim in general are a problem for countries around the world. Your call for immigrants from Bangladesh, Phillipines will just add to the existing problems. Demographics are to be resolved by the country itself.

BTW, Canada and Europe has a worse demographic situation than China. Canada have been using immigrants to spurt growth for 40 years but in effect created many social problems. At the same time, the white population have remained stagnant but South Asian population have grown extremely large. Canada will experience what France and UK is going through now in the future

 

[sahaliyan]

No need to be politically correct. Being that is just stupid. Muslim in general are a problem for countries around the world. Your call for immigrants from Bangladesh, Phillipines will just add to the existing problems. Demographics are to be resolved by the country itself.

BTW, Canada and Europe has a worse demographic situation than China. Canada have been using immigrants to spurt growth for 40 years but in effect created many social problems. At the same time, the white population have remained stagnant but South Asian population have grown extremely large. Canada will experience what France and UK is going through now in the future

I think we should receive immigrants from Buddhist and Christian southeast asia,they are Mongoloids,so they can integrate into Chinese society,just look at the whites of USA,they came from all across of Europe.Bangladeshis are another story,we shouldn't invite the south Asians into our homeland,they are different people,can't integrate into Chinese society.

 

[gambit]

For China specifically, the first and foremost thing to remember is that China is THE MOST policy driven country in the world. The current fertility trend is an artificial controlled trend created by social and political policies. Consequently, increasing the fertility rate is really only a matter of policy modification. This is vastly in contrast to western countries or countries with weak central government such India where the fertility rate is only affected by the overall economic development, something that is very difficult to change.

China cannot force or even compel people to have sex and produce children.

To 'force' is to produce a situation where the person have no desirable options. If I hold a gun to your head, I pretty much gave you no desirable options to do whatever I want you to do. Either you give me all your money or you die. Dying is the least desirable option.

To 'oblige' is introduce a moral (internal) support for an action. You have a child, therefore you are morally burdened -- obligated -- to support that child until adulthood.

To 'compel' is to present -- usually -- a combination of legal/moral arguments to induce a behavior. Jury duty is a good example. Morally speaking, you are obligated to perform this civic duty, but the government can also present a legal punishment if you do not perform.

China can kill babies after they are created but China cannot compel a couple to have sex and create babies.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

China cannot force or even compel people to have sex and produce children.

To 'force' is to produce a situation where the person have no desirable options. If I hold a gun to your head, I pretty much gave you no desirable options to do whatever I want you to do. Either you give me all your money or you die. Dying is the least desirable option.

To 'oblige' is introduce a moral (internal) support for an action. You have a child, therefore you are morally burdened -- obligated -- to support that child until adulthood.

To 'compel' is to present -- usually -- a combination of legal/moral arguments to induce a behavior. Jury duty is a good example. Morally speaking, you are obligated to perform this civic duty, but the government can also present a legal punishment if you do not perform.

China can kill babies after they are created but China cannot compel a couple to have sex and create babies.

Well this is so so simplistic!

First, today babies, once born are NOT killed. The One Child Programme ran using sex education, promotion of sterilization, economic fines for more babies.

Also, to have people have more kids, a lot can be achieved via policy. I have no doubt that reverse economic incentives, coupled with low cost of raising a kid would do wonders!

 

[somsak]

just give discount nx10% for housing. where n is number of children. Problem solved. If u have 10 children, you get a free standard house.

 

[tranquilium]

China cannot force or even compel people to have sex and produce children.

To 'force' is to produce a situation where the person have no desirable options. If I hold a gun to your head, I pretty much gave you no desirable options to do whatever I want you to do. Either you give me all your money or you die. Dying is the least desirable option.

To 'oblige' is introduce a moral (internal) support for an action. You have a child, therefore you are morally burdened -- obligated -- to support that child until adulthood.

To 'compel' is to present -- usually -- a combination of legal/moral arguments to induce a behavior. Jury duty is a good example. Morally speaking, you are obligated to perform this civic duty, but the government can also present a legal punishment if you do not perform.

China can kill babies after they are created but China cannot compel a couple to have sex and create babies.

True, you can't force people to have sex, but then again you most certainly can setup subsidiaries to encourage more children. Like I said, you are thinking China as a western nation that somehow if government setup something, the people must go against just out of habit. The Chinese culture always tends to have large family and it is often things like education expenses that discourages to have more children and subsidiaries is a direct counter to that.

 

[gambit]

True, you can't force people to have sex, but then again you most certainly can setup subsidiaries to encourage more children. Like I said, you are thinking China as a western nation that somehow if government setup something, the people must go against just out of habit. The Chinese culture always tends to have large family and it is often things like education expenses that discourages to have more children and subsidiaries is a direct counter to that.

In pre-industrialization time, which includes pre-WW II China, living was hard. Whether you are a farmer or a craftsman, labor is always a must, even more so for a farmer, which made large families natural. But with industrialization, mankind upended tens of thousands of yrs of human society behaviors. What task that may required ten men back then, now only one or two. This opened the door for the study of age demographics as determinant of behavior, no longer where you were borned and what status was your family.

You think that by merely taking from one group to subsidize the behaviors of another and that will solve China's inevitable demographics problem ?

How many yrs does it take to raise a child in today's industrial age ? Try 21 yrs. In pre-industrial age, once the child is capable of walking on his/her own, talking, and feeding self, he/she is put to labor. So it is more like ten yrs investment before you can reap. Today, it is at least 18 but more like 20 or 21 yrs before society will benefit from one human being. So for this age group, the behavior is one of %99.999 consumption. Yeah...You might put the teenage boy to bag groceries or deliver a few newspapers here and there, or have the teenage girl be a babysitter for a rich couple, but essentially, their contribution to the tax base are statistically insignificant.

Between 22 and early 50s, this age group is both consumer and producer. They have the most active financial life, everything from spending for new luxury items to food to vacations. This group holds the most debt as well as providing the country with the most investment in everything from human to financial capital. They contribute the most to the tax base.

From the mid-50s on, this group begins to decline as producers and when a person inside this group reaches retirement age, he/she will be like a child -- mostly a consumer. The retirees are the most financially conservative in everything from spending to investment. They tends to be risk averse.

Ever heard of the 4-2-1 problem ? That is 4-grandparents to 2-children to 1-child. A ratio that -- to demographers and social scientists -- usually spells serious long term problems for a society, no matter its size.

BBC News - Ageing China: Changes and challenges

Only children from single-child parents face what is known as the 4-2-1 phenomenon: when the child reaches working age, he or she could have to care for two parents and four grandparents in retirement.

In a society where child rearing is unenforced, the 4-2-1 phenomenon is pocketed, meaning isolated and quickly disappeared. In your China with the enforced one-child policy, this is an academic gold mine, a sad event, actually, because the 4-2-1 phenomenon is widespread and interlinked, like a mesh.

So by the time those who were borned under the one-child policy reaches retirement age, China will experience a great shift in financial behavior. This have nothing to do with being Chinese but everything about being a capitalist society. When a Chinese grandparent realize he/she will not have anyone to care for him/her, he/she will be even more financially conservative. Instead of taking grandchildren to Disneyland or other vacation like Western grandparents often do, the Chinese grandparent will conserve what little finance he/she have in order to pay for caregivers.

Subsidies are not laws. A subsidy is an enticement or a lure, not a force or even an internal compulsion, to do 'something'. Even worse, a subsidy is a door as equal to corruption as it is for a good. Your China already have serious problems with corruption but now you want to toss in child bearing and rearing subsidies ? And from a shrinking tax base at that ?