Chinese Demographics

[Shotgunner51]

@Nihonjin1051
at first i thought by 'Malthusian' you mean books like The Population Bomb?

there were some TED videos about global population growth a few years back. Hans Roslings (?) i think.


we are actually quite good at HDI already.
View attachment 189734
View attachment 189735
note China is the big blue one.

Wow impressive dude, that's why I said you are indeed sophisticated.

Back on topic about birth rate, in these days, Shanghai, it's minimum RMB 3 mi ($0.5 mil) gone out-of-pocket to raise a kind till he/she is 21 years old. Damn that's already a lot of money, it's even more if you consider gymboree, piano class, taekwondo class, fancy toys, his/her first car, even house for his/her marriage .... the number is crazy. The most expensive thing is time and energy, that can't be measured in money terms, I rather go vacations and buy myself some fancy toys.

When I get old and retire, I rather maintain a portfolio of investments, own/run a few private companies if I feel bored, and enjoy life, who likes working anyway.

 

[Aepsilons]

Wow impressive dude, that's why I said you are indeed sophisticated.

Back on topic about birth rate, in these days, Shanghai, it's minimum RMB 3 mi ($0.5 mil) gone out-of-pocket to raise a kind till he/she is 21 years old. Damn that's already a lot of money, it's even more if you consider gymboree, piano class, taekwondo class, fancy toys, his/her first car, even house for his/her marriage .... the number is crazy. The most expensive thing is time and energy, that can't be measured in money terms, I rather go vacations and buy myself some fancy toys.

When I get old and retire, I rather maintain a portfolio of investments, own/run a few private companies if I feel bored, and enjoy life, who likes working anyway.

lol! Precisely buddy. In developed nations say in United States, Japan, European Union, Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, Taiwan et al --- it costs an arm and a leg (lol! Gosh don't you love my use of figurative language ) to raise a child, to send him or her to school. This is why it is juts IMPRACTICAL to have over 4 children in said societies. Provided , of course, if the person is not super rich (millionaire / billionaire) then he or she can breed every year -- until the Mrs' uterus can't take anymore. lol.

Like any anything, the more resources you place on children -- the higher chances they'll have success in their own life. Its called Qualitative child bearing. Let me give an example; who's going to have a better life : 1) a single parent who has 5 children (all fathered by different men) -- the mother is unemployed and depends on federal assistance; or 2) two parents who have 2 children; the mother is a nurse and the father is an engineer , have a stable family, home, food, resources et al.

Who's going to have a higher chance of success ? Children from family 1 or family 2? I'd say family 2.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Absolutely !! I don't understand why some people view a lowered population growth rate as a pure bad thing , i mean, it is the goal of any government or nation to have a healthy population that can enjoy the services provided and available for them. Would you rather have a nation of say 100 million, enjoy a GDP per capita close to $40k a year (USD), have high life expectancy (85+), high educational system (considered one of the best in the world), high patent rates in the world, high research rates, high scientific publication rates, great child care, great retirement system. or be a nation of say 300 million, but have poor gdp per capita, poor educational system, poor retirement system, poor scientific and publication rate, et al ?

It is the goal -- the Responsibility -- of any government to provide services for ALL of its citizens. To eradicate poverty, to eradicate child abuse, female abuse, rapes, starvation, and overall to eradicate the percentage of population that live in Low Socioeconomic Stratum. Any government that fails to achieve this mandate , yet succeeds in feeding its military and elites -- needs to implement NECESSARY and URGENT reform.

So , in that context, China is going in the right direction. Chinese GDP per capita is rising, education is improving, health care is improving, work is available and overall quality of life is improving. It is going in the RIGHT direction. So why worry about population growth changes? It is only natural -- a sign of a developing nation.



Yes , somewhat similar to that. The theory of Malthus is fixed on two principles:

1. Human growth is assymetric
2. Natural resource growth is symetric

There will be a point in time when population will exceed natural resource(s) in a given nation and when that happens, there will be radical starvation , and a poor standard of living, practically a cataclysmic situation. Hence Malthus, and many biologists that shared his vision, proposed that humans enact methods to control human growth. We see this now int he form of contraceptive uses , planned parenthood programs.

Tho I don't agree with some of the solutions advocated by Malthus, I do agree with some of his theoretical frameworks. As it does bear significance and truth and many statistical processes in epidemiological studies are based on his principles.

I can't totally understand these, you know I am just a rough guy ...

My thinking is simple, I knew a HK guy in his 60's, he makes a lot more money than the 1200 young employees worked in his factory in Cambodia combined! I envy his life, not those employees. Being old is not that bad if you are talented.

 

[Yizhi]

Wow impressive dude, that's why I said you are indeed sophisticated.

Back on topic about birth rate, in these days, Shanghai, it's minimum RMB 3 mi ($0.5 mil) gone out-of-pocket to raise a kind till he/she is 21 years old. Damn that's already a lot of money, it's even more if you consider gymboree, piano class, taekwondo class, fancy toys, his/her first car, even house for his/her marriage .... the number is crazy. The most expensive thing is time and energy, that can't be measured in money terms, I rather go vacations and buy myself some fancy toys.

When I get old and retire, I rather maintain a portfolio of investments, own/run a few private companies if I feel bored, and enjoy life, who likes working anyway.

now i'm flattered.

good luck raising a kid in Shanghai, buddy. i've got a cousin who has 2 sons in Beijing, and we always joke about he has to earn 2 apartments for his kids. lots of pressure.

 

[Aepsilons]

I can't totally understand these, you know I am just a rough guy ...

My thinking is simple, I knew a HK guy in his 60's, he makes a lot more money than the 1200 young employees worked in his factory in Cambodia combined! I envy his life, not those employees. Being old is not that bad if you are talented.

LOL! reminds me of a friend of mine who'se in his late 40s. He's a Japanese expatriot living in Philippines. The guy has , literally 3 girlfriends there. He's living the life man.

I wish i could have 3 girlfriends, too. LOL!!

 

[Shotgunner51]

now i'm flattered.

good luck raising a kid in Shanghai, buddy. i've got a cousin who has 2 sons in Beijing, and we always joke about he has to earn 2 apartments for his kids. lots of pressure.

Each tiny 100 sqm @ RMB 60k/sqm, he need RMB 12 mil ($2 mil), why he did such a cruel thing to himself ...
He can buy an extra fleet of Ferrari if he doesn't make that huge mistake

 

[Aepsilons]

now i'm flattered.

good luck raising a kid in Shanghai, buddy. i've got a cousin who has 2 sons in Beijing, and we always joke about he has to earn 2 apartments for his kids. lots of pressure.

ha ha ha , 2 sons ! Auspicious ! He's lucky man to have 2 boys, dude !

Btw, what is their sign?

Each tiny 100 sqm @ RMB 60k/sqm, he need RMB 12 mil ($2 mil), why he did such a cruel thing to himself ...
He can buy an extra fleet of Ferrari if he doesn't make that huge mistake

But bro,... having 1 boy is a blessing ! Having 2 is double blessing! hahaha!

 

[Shotgunner51]

LOL! reminds me of a friend of mine who'se in his late 40s. He's a Japanese expatriot living in Philippines. The guy has , literally 3 girlfriends there. He's living the life man.

I wish i could have 3 girlfriends, too. LOL!!

Why not ....

 

[Aepsilons]

Why not ....

Hahahahaha!

 

[Yizhi]

Each tiny 100 sqm @ RMB 60k/sqm, he need RMB 12 mil ($2 mil), why he did such a cruel thing to himself ...
He can buy an extra fleet of Ferrari if he doesn't make that huge mistake

well, he's got his own company (small), and the kids are super cute.
and why would one choose Ferrari over kids.....

i'll definitely have at least 2 kids.... hate being the only child....

ha ha ha , 2 sons ! Auspicious ! He's lucky man to have 2 boys, dude !

Btw, what is their sign?



But bro,... having 1 boy is a blessing ! Having 2 is double blessing! hahaha!

sign?

 

[Shotgunner51]

well, he's got his own company (small), and the kids are super cute.
and why would one choose Ferrari over kids.....
i'll definitely have at least 2 kids.... hate being the only child....

My bad, kids over Ferrari of course ...

 

[Yizhi]

My bad, kids over Ferrari of course ...

private jets?......

 

[sahaliyan]

The Chinese in Canada are urbanized but they tend to have two kids or more per family because there are support from government policies, ie. such as 1 year mat leave, free hospital visit and no charge for giving birth (through taxes paid).
Although Chinese government have lifted the one child policy earlier in the year, it's still too complicated such as applying to have another kid (which is someone laughable as it spoils the mood, lol) or if your first kid is a girl. They should have just out right ban it and say, if you want or can afford to go right ahead and have two or more children. To ease the burden for family implement policies that favour families who want to have children.

The birth rate of Chinese Canadians is quite low,only 1.2,the national averge of Canada is 1.59,the muslim Canadians 2.4,the Hindu Canadians 2.0,the Sikh Canadians 1.8.
Have two kids is not enough,because someone for many reason will not have children,and someone will have one children.
For example,in USA,18% people have 0 child,18% people 1,36% people 2,18% people 3,6% people 4,3% people five,1% people 6 or more children.
If there are 100 couple of parents,18 have 0 child,18 have 1,36 have 2,18 have 3,6 have 4,3 have 5,1 have 6,then those parents total give birth to 189 children,less than 200,the population will still decrease in the future,the total fertility rate is 1.89.For population growth,you need the total fertility rate to be 2.1.

And why an aging society is a bad thing?You know it's naturaly for young people more toward consumption than the old people,that means a young society have larger market than the older society.And the young society means larger workforce.Someone maybe say less people means less unemployment,this is wrong,because less people means less market(especially less young people) and less workforce means the investors will not invest more in your country,so that means less chance,so the unemployment rate will still high
And even the Russian population is declining now,the population of Moscow is still growing,add several million new people to this city.Just like Japan,the population of Tokyo will not decline.Some people in China think Beijing and Shanghai is too huddle,but the population of Beijing and Shanghai will large
And why Japanese have lost 20 years,both Keynesianist Paul Krugman and Chicago school's Ronald H. Coase thought the Japanese aging is one of the reasons caused the lost 20 years.

 

[Shotgunner51]

private jets?......

Tempting ...

 

[bolo]

And why Japanese have lost 20 years,both Keynesianist Paul Krugman and Chicago school's Ronald H. Coase thought the Japanese aging is one of the reasons caused the lost 20 years.

No, that is due to Plaza Accord. What i'm saying is that immigration is not a viable option. Chinese will need to have more kids.