China's work force is set to decline 30% by 2050

[AndrewJin]

China in many ways is a scaled up version of Japan.

Pls elaborate.
China's any per capita data is not on the same scale like Japan.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Pls elaborate.
China's any per capita data is not on the same scale like Japan.

Scaled up version a generation behind.

 

[AndrewJin]

Scaled up version a generation behind.

I don't think productivity per capita will reach Japan's current level in 2 decades.

 

[sEoulman556]

Curious on whats the opinion of allowing immigration only from East Asian developed countries like South Korea, Japan, Singapore and possibly other developed countries. I know immigration is unpopular.

I honestly can't tell if you're just joking or not.

 

[TheTruth]

I honestly can't tell if you're just joking or not.

Hundreds of thousands of South Koreans live in China on a semi-permanent basis, as do 1-2 million Taiwanese.

 

[zeronet]

Japan is by far the most aggressive user of robotics. What about the economy?

It is shrinking. Robotics couldn't be making too much of a difference.

The major reason for Japan's economic stagnation is NOT its aging population. When comparing the median age of Japan to that of Germany, they are both at 46.1, but Germany did a much better job to keep their economy progressing.
List of countries by median age - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Then what are the reasons? You can find the simple answer by counting the Japanese famous brands and comparing where they are now and were 20 yrs ago. Where are Sony Sharp Sanyo Panasonic Hitachi....? Japanese just lost the battles to Korea Taiwan China in many areas that they were once dominant, they are now pulling back to defense some very niche markets. The auto industry is among a few areas that they are still having a major stake. ifJapan lose the battle in auto to Korea China, I don't know how Japanese government will manage to pay the pensions to their retired people.

In the passing decade, you heard numerous new names such as google, facebook, Twitter, Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, Huawei....do you hear any of them from Japan? In the new era of internet, unlike US or China, Japanese is just silent.

why germany is better? because germany built the European Union and made full use of it to expand their oppotunities, and german did not lose but rather strengthen their dominant areas, e.g. auto/mechnical manufacture. when u lose in the bussiness competitions, of course ur economy will stagnate.

for the age of population, it is interesting to compare china and colombia. Both countries are with around $8000 nominal gdp per capita, median age of china is 36 while columbia is 28, but china is growing much faster and has a much more vibrant society fighting for wealth, knowlege, and being upside. who tell u elder man is always lacking vigor comparing to the younger man?

 

[Aepsilons]

Curious on whats the opinion of allowing immigration only from East Asian developed countries like South Korea, Japan, Singapore and possibly other developed countries. I know immigration is unpopular.

No. Not from Japan; as we are also encountering our own population demographic crisis. Japan should and MUST encourage immigration from productive nations, and immigrants should be well versed in Japanese and must understand the life customs of Japan. I am open to immigration from the following countries into JAPAN:

1. South Korea
2. North Korea (so long as they pledge loyalty unto Japan and not act as a 5th column)
3. China
4. Mongolia
5. Russia
   
6. United States
7. Canada
8. Peru
9. Brazil
10. Philippines
11. Indonesia
12. Vietnam
13. Malaysia
14. India
15. Australia
16. Pakistan
17. Iran
    
18. Europe in general

No to refugees, however. We don't need that right now.

Hundreds of thousands of South Koreans live in China on a semi-permanent basis, as do 1-2 million Taiwanese.

However they are not really living in China, but more so studying and working there. I know that there are some 200,000 Japanese residents in China, but they do not become Chinese citizens, merely, they work or live there on semi-permanent basis.

Most of the time, Japanese who live in China ultimately marry Chinese spouses, but they eventually together go back to Japan. The children most of the time take up Japanese citizenship (by Japanese Jus Sanguis Law) and take up Japanese Identity.

I honestly can't tell if you're just joking or not.

Well, to be direct and frank, South Korea shouldn't be sending emigrants abroad because your country is having a population growth crisis, as well. I suppose it is directly correlated to the extremely high HDI in Japan and South Korea as well as the relatively high per capita as compared to other countries.

 

[Viper0011.]

Its true....that why the investments into Pakistan . 60% of Pakistan's workforce is Male Men, ages 16-23, meaning working age. Which also means, these young men have 35 years to work (standard age before people officially retire) .

So the Chinese will slowly start to integrate over 100 million young men from Pakistan into their workforce, resulting in super growth of the Pakistani economy starting in the next 3 years and then taking Pakistan to top 15th economy by 2030. Western economy houses thing it would be 2050, but knowing, monitoring and calculating the speed of Pak-China projects, I am predicting by 2035, Pakistan will be one of the top 15th economy.

I may not be right, but I will predict based on my analysis, and by seeing how big of a chunk Pakistan can get from China in terms of manufacturing and all, Pakistan may become the 10th top economy in the world by or before 2050!! I hope we are all here to see it. But this one is my prediction so don't take it as if it came from Bloomberg. Bloomberg and others are at Pakistan being the top 15th economy. I am sure it can be the top 10th.

 

[CHN Bamboo]

Brazil

Is it Japanese Brazilian?
I know that 1,000,000 Japanese in Brazil,maybe some come back

 

[Aepsilons]

I know that 1,000,000 Japanese in Brazil,maybe some come back

Correction, there are over 2.2 million Japanese-Brazilians. And yes, we would naturally encourage re-integration of our Japanese kin in Brazil if they ever wish to come back to the Japanese Fatherland.

Every Japanese blood is precious. Wherever they are around the world, they should be welcomed with open arms in the land of their forefathers, and revered ancestors.

 

[EAsian]

The major reason for Japan's economic stagnation is NOT its aging population. When comparing the median age of Japan to that of Germany, they are both at 46.1, but Germany did a much better job to keep their economy progressing.
List of countries by median age - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Then what are the reasons? You can find the simple answer by counting the Japanese famous brands and comparing where they are now and were 20 yrs ago. Where are Sony Sharp Sanyo Panasonic Hitachi....? Japanese just lost the battles to Korea Taiwan China in many areas that they were once dominant, they are now pulling back to defense some very niche markets. The auto industry is among a few areas that they are still having a major stake. ifJapan lose the battle in auto to Korea China, I don't know how Japanese government will manage to pay the pensions to their retired people.

In the passing decade, you heard numerous new names such as google, facebook, Twitter, Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, Huawei....do you hear any of them from Japan? In the new era of internet, unlike US or China, Japanese is just silent.

why germany is better? because germany built the European Union and made full use of it to expand their oppotunities, and german did not lose but rather strengthen their dominant areas, e.g. auto/mechnical manufacture. when u lose in the bussiness competitions, of course ur economy will stagnate.

for the age of population, it is interesting to compare china and colombia. Both countries are with around $8000 nominal gdp per capita, median age of china is 36 while columbia is 28, but china is growing much faster and has a much more vibrant society fighting for wealth, knowlege, and being upside. who tell u elder man is always lacking vigor comparing to the younger man?

The economy of Germany can hardly be called as good.In fact the economy of the whole EU is not good.Population is defintely a big reason.

 

[Dungeness]

Hundreds of thousands of South Koreans live in China on a semi-permanent basis, as do 1-2 million Taiwanese.

望京 is already a Korean town.

Is it Japanese Brazilian?
I know that 1,000,000 Japanese in Brazil,maybe some come back

Last time I was in Japan, those Brazil workers, in the factories floor doing lowest level of labor, were looked upon by the regular Japanese workers. They could hardly speak Japanese, and were imported as 研修生，earned peanuts. They were even laughed upon because they usually eat more than Japanese. I felt sorry for them. Hope things are getting batter for them now.

 

[dadeechi]

smaller highly educated and well-off population is 100 times better than having a huge amount of uneducated and malnutrition population, its cancerous to the planet we are living in

Eugenics and the Nazis -- the California connection - SFGate

Eugenics and the Nazis -- the California connection

Hitler and his henchmen victimized an entire continent and exterminated millions in his quest for a so-called Master Race.
But the concept of a white, blond-haired, blue-eyed master Nordic race didn't originate with Hitler. The idea was created in the United States, and cultivated in California, decades before Hitler came to power. California eugenicists played an important, although little-known, role in the American eugenics movement's campaign for ethnic cleansing.
Eugenics was the pseudoscience aimed at "improving" the human race. In its extreme, racist form, this meant wiping away all human beings deemed "unfit," preserving only those who conformed to a Nordic stereotype. Elements of the philosophy were enshrined as national policy by forced sterilization and segregation laws, as well as marriage restrictions, enacted in 27 states. In 1909, California became the third state to adopt such laws. Ultimately, eugenics practitioners coercively sterilized some 60,000 Americans, barred the marriage of thousands, forcibly segregated thousands in "colonies," and persecuted untold numbers in ways we are just learning. Before World War II, nearly half of coercive sterilizations were done in California, and even after the war, the state accounted for a third of all such surgeries.
California was considered an epicenter of the American eugenics movement. During the 20th century's first decades, California's eugenicists included potent but little-known race scientists, such as Army venereal disease specialist Dr. Paul Popenoe, citrus magnate Paul Gosney, Sacramento banker Charles Goethe, as well as members of the California state Board of Charities and Corrections and the University of California Board of Regents.
Eugenics would have been so much bizarre parlor talk had it not been for extensive financing by corporate philanthropies, specifically the Carnegie Institution, the Rockefeller Foundation and the Harriman railroad fortune. They were all in league with some of America's most respected scientists from such prestigious universities as Stanford, Yale, Harvard and Princeton. These academicians espoused race theory and race science, and then faked and twisted data to serve eugenics' racist aims.

The Rockefeller Foundation helped found the German eugenics program and even funded the program that Josef Mengele worked in before he went to Auschwitz.
Much of the spiritual guidance and political agitation for the American eugenics movement came from California's quasi-autonomous eugenic societies, such as Pasadena's Human Betterment Foundation and the California branch of the American Eugenics Society, which coordinated much of their activity with the Eugenics Research Society in Long Island. These organizations -- which functioned as part of a closely-knit network -- published racist eugenic newsletters and pseudoscientific journals, such as Eugenical News and Eugenics,
and propagandized for the Nazis.
Eugenics was born as a scientific curiosity in the Victorian age. In 1863,
Sir Francis Galton, a cousin of Charles Darwin, theorized that if talented people married only other talented people, the result would be measurably better offspring. At the turn of the last century, Galton's ideas were imported to the United States just as Gregor Mendel's principles of heredity were rediscovered. American eugenics advocates believed with religious fervor that the same Mendelian concepts determining the color and size of peas, corn and cattle also governed the social and intellectual character of man.
In a United States demographically reeling from immigration upheaval and torn by post-Reconstruction chaos, race conflict was everywhere in the early 20th century. Elitists, utopians and so-called progressives fused their smoldering race fears and class bias with their desire to make a better world. They reinvented Galton's eugenics into a repressive and racist ideology. The intent: Populate the Earth with vastly more of their own socioeconomic and biological kind -- and less or none of everyone else.
The superior species the eugenics movement sought was populated not merely by tall, strong, talented people. Eugenicists craved blond, blue-eyed Nordic types. This group alone, they believed, was fit to inherit the Earth. In the process, the movement intended to subtract emancipated Negroes, immigrant Asian laborers, Indians, Hispanics, East Europeans, Jews, dark- haired hill folk, poor people, the infirm and anyone classified outside the gentrified genetic lines drawn up by American raceologists.
How? By identifying so-called defective family trees and subjecting them to lifelong segregation and sterilization programs to kill their bloodlines. The grand plan was to literally wipe away the reproductive capability of those deemed weak and inferior -- the so-called unfit. The eugenicists hoped to neutralize the viability of 10 percent of the population at a sweep, until none were left except themselves.
Eighteen solutions were explored in a Carnegie-supported 1911 "Preliminary Report of the Committee of the Eugenic Section of the American Breeder's Association to Study and to Report on the Best Practical Means for Cutting Off the Defective Germ-Plasm in the Human Population." Point No. 8 was euthanasia.
The most commonly suggested method of eugenicide in the United States was a "lethal chamber" or public, locally operated gas chambers. In 1918, Popenoe, the Army venereal disease specialist during World War I, co-wrote the widely used textbook, "Applied Eugenics," which argued, "From an historical point of view, the first method which presents itself is execution . . . Its value in keeping up the standard of the race should not be underestimated." "Applied Eugenics" also devoted a chapter to "Lethal Selection," which operated "through the destruction of the individual by some adverse feature of the environment, such as excessive cold, or bacteria, or by bodily deficiency."
Eugenic breeders believed American society was not ready to implement an organized lethal solution. But many mental institutions and doctors practiced improvised medical lethality and passive euthanasia on their own. One institution in Lincoln, Ill., fed its incoming patients milk from tubercular cows believing a eugenically strong individual would be immune. Thirty to 40 percent annual death rates resulted at Lincoln. Some doctors practiced passive eugenicide one newborn infant at a time. Others doctors at mental institutions engaged in lethal neglect.
Nonetheless, with eugenicide marginalized, the main solution for eugenicists was the rapid expansion of forced segregation and sterilization, as well as more marriage restrictions. California led the nation, performing nearly all sterilization procedures with little or no due process. In its first 25 years of eugenics legislation, California sterilized 9,782 individuals, mostly women. Many were classified as "bad girls," diagnosed as "passionate," "oversexed" or "sexually wayward." At the Sonoma State Home, some women were sterilized because of what was deemed an abnormally large clitoris or labia.
In 1933 alone, at least 1,278 coercive sterilizations were performed, 700 on women. The state's two leading sterilization mills in 1933 were Sonoma State Home with 388 operations and Patton State Hospital with 363 operations. Other sterilization centers included Agnews, Mendocino, Napa, Norwalk, Stockton and Pacific Colony state hospitals.
Even the U.S. Supreme Court endorsed aspects of eugenics. In its infamous 1927 decision, Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes wrote, "It is better for all the world, if instead of waiting to execute degenerate offspring for crime, or to let them starve for their imbecility, society can prevent those who are manifestly unfit from continuing their kind . . . Three generations of imbeciles are enough." This decision opened the floodgates for thousands to be coercively sterilized or otherwise persecuted as subhuman. Years later, the Nazis at the Nuremberg trials quoted Holmes' words in their own defense.
Only after eugenics became entrenched in the United States was the campaign transplanted into Germany, in no small measure through the efforts of California eugenicists, who published booklets idealizing sterilization and circulated them to German officials and scientists.
Hitler studied American eugenics laws. He tried to legitimize his anti- Semitism by medicalizing it, and wrapping it in the more palatable pseudoscientific facade of eugenics. Hitler was able to recruit more followers among reasonable Germans by claiming that science was on his side. Hitler's race hatred sprung from his own mind, but the intellectual outlines of the eugenics Hitler adopted in 1924 were made in America.
During the '20s, Carnegie Institution eugenic scientists cultivated deep personal and professional relationships with Germany's fascist eugenicists. In "Mein Kampf," published in 1924, Hitler quoted American eugenic ideology and openly displayed a thorough knowledge of American eugenics. "There is today one state," wrote Hitler, "in which at least weak beginnings toward a better conception (of immigration) are noticeable. Of course, it is not our model German Republic, but the United States."
Hitler proudly told his comrades just how closely he followed the progress of the American eugenics movement. "I have studied with great interest," he told a fellow Nazi, "the laws of several American states concerning prevention of reproduction by people whose progeny would, in all probability, be of no value or be injurious to the racial stock."
Hitler even wrote a fan letter to American eugenics leader Madison Grant, calling his race-based eugenics book, "The Passing of the Great Race," his "bible."
Now, the American term "Nordic" was freely exchanged with "Germanic" or "Aryan." Race science, racial purity and racial dominance became the driving force behind Hitler's Nazism. Nazi eugenics would ultimately dictate who would be persecuted in a Reich-dominated Europe, how people would live, and how they would die. Nazi doctors would become the unseen generals in Hitler's war against the Jews and other Europeans deemed inferior. Doctors would create the science, devise the eugenic formulas, and hand-select the victims for sterilization, euthanasia and mass extermination.
During the Reich's early years, eugenicists across America welcomed Hitler's plans as the logical fulfillment of their own decades of research and effort. California eugenicists republished Nazi propaganda for American consumption. They also arranged for Nazi scientific exhibits, such as an August 1934 display at the L.A. County Museum, for the annual meeting of the American Public Health Association.
In 1934, as Germany's sterilizations were accelerating beyond 5,000 per month, the California eugenics leader C. M. Goethe, upon returning from Germany, ebulliently bragged to a colleague, "You will be interested to know that your work has played a powerful part in shaping the opinions of the group of intellectuals who are behind Hitler in this epoch-making program. Everywhere I sensed that their opinions have been tremendously stimulated by American thought . . . I want you, my dear friend, to carry this thought with you for the rest of your life, that you have really jolted into action a great government of 60 million people."
That same year, 10 years after Virginia passed its sterilization act, Joseph DeJarnette, superintendent of Virginia's Western State Hospital, observed in the Richmond Times-Dispatch, "The Germans are beating us at our own game."
More than just providing the scientific roadmap, America funded Germany's eugenic institutions.
By 1926, Rockefeller had donated some $410,000 -- almost $4 million in today's money -- to hundreds of German researchers. In May 1926, Rockefeller awarded $250,000 toward creation of the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute for Psychiatry. Among the leading psychiatrists at the German Psychiatric Institute was Ernst Rüdin, who became director and eventually an architect of Hitler's systematic medical repression.
Another in the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute's complex of eugenics institutions was the Institute for Brain Research. Since 1915, it had operated out of a single room. Everything changed when Rockefeller money arrived in 1929. A grant of $317,000 allowed the institute to construct a major building and take center stage in German race biology. The institute received additional grants from the Rockefeller Foundation during the next several years. Leading the institute, once again, was Hitler's medical henchman Ernst Rüdin. Rüdin's organization became a prime director and recipient of the murderous experimentation and research conducted on Jews, Gypsies and others.
Beginning in 1940, thousands of Germans taken from old age homes, mental institutions and other custodial facilities were systematically gassed. Between 50,000 and 100,000 were eventually killed.
Leon Whitney, executive secretary of the American Eugenics Society, declared of Nazism, "While we were pussy-footing around ... the Germans were calling a spade a spade."
A special recipient of Rockefeller funding was the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute for Anthropology, Human Heredity and Eugenics in Berlin. For decades,
American eugenicists had craved twins to advance their research into heredity.
The Institute was now prepared to undertake such research on an unprecedented level. On May 13, 1932, the Rockefeller Foundation in New York dispatched a radiogram to its Paris office: JUNE MEETING EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE NINE THOUSAND
DOLLARS OVER THREE YEAR PERIOD TO KWG INSTITUTE ANTHROPOLOGY FOR RESEARCH ON
TWINS AND EFFECTS ON LATER GENERATIONS OF SUBSTANCES TOXIC FOR GERM PLASM.
At the time of Rockefeller's endowment, Otmar Freiherr von Verschuer, a hero in American eugenics circles, functioned as a head of the Institute for Anthropology, Human Heredity and Eugenics. Rockefeller funding of that institute continued both directly and through other research conduits during Verschuer's early tenure. In 1935, Verschuer left the institute to form a rival eugenics facility in Frankfurt that was much heralded in the American eugenics press. Research on twins in the Third Reich exploded, backed by government decrees. Verschuer wrote in Der Erbarzt, a eugenics doctor's journal he edited, that Germany's war would yield a "total solution to the Jewish problem."
Verschuer had a longtime assistant. His name was Josef Mengele.
On May 30, 1943, Mengele arrived at Auschwitz. Verschuer notified the German Research Society, "My assistant, Dr. Josef Mengele (M.D., Ph.D.) joined me in this branch of research. He is presently employed as Hauptsturmführer (captain) and camp physician in the Auschwitz concentration camp. Anthropological testing of the most diverse racial groups in this concentration camp is being carried out with permission of the SS Reichsführer (Himmler)."
Mengele began searching the boxcar arrivals for twins. When he found them,
he performed beastly experiments, scrupulously wrote up the reports and sent the paperwork back to Verschuer's institute for evaluation. Often, cadavers, eyes and other body parts were also dispatched to Berlin's eugenic institutes.
Rockefeller executives never knew of Mengele. With few exceptions, the foundation had ceased all eugenics studies in Nazi-occupied Europe before the war erupted in 1939. But by that time the die had been cast. The talented men Rockefeller and Carnegie financed, the great institutions they helped found, and the science they helped create took on a scientific momentum of their own.
After the war, eugenics was declared a crime against humanity -- an act of genocide. Germans were tried and they cited the California statutes in their defense -- to no avail. They were found guilty.
However, Mengele's boss Verschuer escaped prosecution. Verschuer re- established his connections with California eugenicists who had gone underground and renamed their crusade "human genetics." Typical was an exchange July 25, 1946, when Popenoe wrote Verschuer, "It was indeed a pleasure to hear from you again. I have been very anxious about my colleagues in Germany . . . I suppose sterilization has been discontinued in Germany?" Popenoe offered tidbits about various American eugenics luminaries and then sent various eugenics publications. In a separate package, Popenoe sent some cocoa, coffee and other goodies.
Verschuer wrote back, "Your very friendly letter of 7/25 gave me a great deal of pleasure and you have my heartfelt thanks for it. The letter builds another bridge between your and my scientific work; I hope that this bridge will never again collapse but rather make possible valuable mutual enrichment and stimulation."
Soon, Verschuer again became a respected scientist in Germany and around the world. In 1949, he became a corresponding member of the newly formed American Society of Human Genetics, organized by American eugenicists and geneticists.
In the fall of 1950, the University of Münster offered Verschuer a position at its new Institute of Human Genetics, where he later became a dean. In the early and mid-1950s, Verschuer became an honorary member of numerous prestigious societies, including the Italian Society of Genetics, the Anthropological Society of Vienna, and the Japanese Society for Human Genetics.
Human genetics' genocidal roots in eugenics were ignored by a victorious generation that refused to link itself to the crimes of Nazism and by succeeding generations that never knew the truth of the years leading up to war. Now governors of five states, including California, have issued public apologies to their citizens, past and present, for sterilization and other abuses spawned by the eugenics movement.
Human genetics became an enlightened endeavor in the late 20th century. Hard-working, devoted scientists finally cracked the human code through the Human Genome Project. Now, every individual can be biologically identified and classified by trait and ancestry. Yet even now, some leading voices in the genetic world are calling for a cleansing of the unwanted among us, and even a master human species.
There is understandable wariness about more ordinary forms of abuse, for example, in denying insurance or employment based on genetic tests. On Oct. 14,
the United States' first genetic anti-discrimination legislation passed the Senate by unanimous vote. Yet because genetics research is global, no single nation's law can stop the threats.

 

[CHN Bamboo]

2.2 million

More than the total number that foreigners come to Japan...The report of 法务省(厚生省/劳动省?)
The name of Japanese gov always remind me of the scaring thing----We have to memorize the ancient China's government departments names..WTF
（like中书省 门下省 尚书省 大理寺 鸿胪寺 宗人府 内务府 詹事府）

 

[Azadkashmir]

japan needs go to oil rich country be very aggressive offer everything machine tools, training, education, language, service sector, then have it linked to other countries and expand. I think gulf country are mature now and ready for work.