China's work force is set to decline 30% by 2050

[Bussard Ramjet]

 

[EAsian]

All predictions，we are humans which can change our policy in any time,not some becterias.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

If the productivity doesn't increase dramatically, the economy is set for a really tough environment.

All predictions，we are humans which can change our policy in any time,not some becterias.

But you are not changing any policy.

Also, once people get rich and educated, they are less inclined to have children. How will you force them?

By giving money? Let's say you need to give a 100k yuan for one extra child to the parents. Just for a 10 million children it will be a drag of 1 trillion yuan.

 

[Dungeness]

If the productivity doesn't increase dramatically, the economy is set for a really tough environment.



But you are not changing any policy.

Also, once people get rich and educated, they are less inclined to have children. How will you force them?

By giving money? Let's say you need to give a 100k yuan for one extra child to the parents. Just for a 10 million children it will be a drag of 1 trillion yuan.

The predictions are always meant for today's consumption. that is all.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

The predictions are always meant for today's consumption. that is all.

These are mathematical predictions, not probabilistic, but definite.

These have very few variables. The only things that you need are TFR, Infant mortality rates, and death rates. These are all publicly available, and don't have much variance in their reporting.

This prediction is very different from the economic kind of predictions that are usually way off.

 

[TheTruth]

These are mathematical predictions, not probabilistic, but definite.

These have very few variables. The only things that you need are TFR, Infant mortality rates, and death rates. These are all publicly available, and don't have much variance in their reporting.

This prediction is very different from the economic kind of predictions that are usually way off.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/09/23/world/asia/ap-as-china-robots-rising.html?_r=0

These robots, now, are capable of replacing 100 workers each while *increasing* productivity and lowering overhead.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/09/23/world/asia/ap-as-china-robots-rising.html?_r=0

These robots, now, are capable of replacing 100 workers each while *increasing* productivity and lowering overhead.

No they are not. Every damn article cites the same one or two factories where this is happening.

And these robots are the things that will help grow productivity.

Let me simplify

Economy= Population * Productivity

Now your population is almost static, the productivity must rise.

Installing modern robots and technology increases productivity. So this will help the factory workers doing higher value added stuff.

The Japanese have been waiting for a robot revolution since 1980s, something which never came. Don't do the same mistake.

Workers are still the primary units of production. All robots, technology are just add ons, to increase productivity of one worker.

 

[Dungeness]

These are mathematical predictions, not probabilistic, but definite.

These have very few variables. The only things that you need are TFR, Infant mortality rates, and death rates. These are all publicly available, and don't have much variance in their reporting.

This prediction is very different from the economic kind of predictions that are usually way off.

I bet the mathematical model used never factor in CCP's determination nor their ability to manage the country. That is why the predictions about China are almost never right.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

I bet the mathematical model used never factor in CCP's determination nor their ability to manage the country. That is why the predictions about China are almost never right.

As I say, this is a pretty accurate mathematical model, with the current path.

Of course, their can be changes if the policies are shifted, but how much?

The time is running out. China is at least 8-9 years behind the time where it should have lifted the one child policy completely.

Even with the recent relaxation, the number of children born were not as much as expected.

The matter of fact is that once people get rich and more educated, and raising children takes more effort and money, the amount of monetary compensation required to induce people to have children will continue to increase.

Can china than afford giving lets say 200k yuan for every kid?

Right now the earnings of a family will easily cross 100k yuan. And raising a kid will require significant investment in effort, time, and money.

According to me, China only has 10 years remaining to alter its policies, or than it will be too late to significantly affect things.

 

[rcrmj]

Also, we don't have a demographic crisis.

smaller highly educated and well-off population is 100 times better than having a huge amount of uneducated and malnutrition population, its cancerous to the planet we are living in

 

[AndrewJin]

What is Govia?



Also, we don't have a demographic crisis.

Exceeding population without enough resources and opportunities.
Now, the feudal system makes them behave.
Once they are enlightened, the country will become pieces.

smaller highly educated and well-off population is 100 times better than having a huge amount of uneducated and malnutrition population, its cancerous to the planet we are living in

True, we should have less people and higher productivity per capita as developed countries.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

smaller highly educated and well-off population is 100 times better than having a huge amount of uneducated and malnutrition population, its cancerous to the planet we are living in

No it is not.

I am highly interested in space. When you see the depths of space, you realize how insignificant humans really are.

Ultimately the ability to sustain a population depends on technological advancements.

In 1000 AD, it would have been unimaginable to sustain the number of people that we do now.

I predict that if we continue on our technological trend, we can sustain as much as 1 trillion people by 2300.

Also, Indian population is growing at around 1%. The economy is growing at around 7%. This means that obviously the standards of living are rising.

man! you are riding a rickshaw, and worry so much about others can't afford BMW in the future? You must really have a HUGE heart!

Not really. I am just discussing here.

For India, Indian demographics are in the right spot. We can sustain that much population with efficiency increases over longer periods of time.

 

[AndrewJin]

No it is not.

I am highly interested in space. When you see the depths of space, you realize how insignificant humans really are.

Ultimately the ability to sustain a population depends on technological advancements.

In 1000 AD, it would have been unimaginable to sustain the number of people that we do now.

I predict that if we continue on our technological trend, we can sustain as much as 1 trillion people by 2300.

Also, Indian population is growing at around 1%. The economy is growing at around 7%. This means that obviously the standards of living are rising.



Not really. I am just discussing here.

For India, Indian demographics are in the right spot. We can sustain that much population with efficiency increases over longer periods of time.

U really have a typical outdated mindset of developing countries.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Exceeding population without enough resources and opportunities.
Now, the feudal system makes them behave.
Once they are enlightened, the country will become pieces.


True, we should have less people and higher productivity per capita as developed countries.

Obviously the productivity is important. But population can't be discounted as well. Both are important.

U really have a typical outdated mindset of developing countries.

I didn't know there was a "typical" mindset specifically assigned to developing countries.

May I ask what that is?

Yes you do. When your population surpass us, you don't have enough food or jobs for your people. That is a demographic crisis.

Shining India



Yes you do. When your population surpass us, you don't have enough food or jobs for your people. That is a demographic crisis.

Shining India

India is food sufficient. Though there are quite a bit of malnourished people in the country, the essential fundamentals are encouraging.

Rather, in India there are free food supplies in many states, for people who are poor.

 

[AndrewJin]

Yes you do. When your population surpass us, you don't have enough food or jobs for your people. That is a demographic crisis.

Shining India



Yes you do. When your population surpass us, you don't have enough food or jobs for your people. That is a demographic crisis.

Shining India

True.
The world is deficient in resources and food.
We will see a chaotic India in the coming decade.
So many people in such a tiny place.
Once an Indian tried to compare Mumbai to my city.
Hello! We have ten million people, yes, but in 8500km2.
(One thing i can praise them. Although GDP of Mumbai is smaller than ours, their GDP per km2 is bigger).

India is food sufficient. Though there are quite a bit of malnourished people in the country, the essential fundamentals are encouraging.

Rather, in India there are free food supplies in many states, for people who are poor.

Oh yes, enough food.
And u don't eat meat.
How many food are rotten in storage and on the crappy roads?