China’s Submarine Fleet, Evolution & news

[Figaro]

again, false our nuclear submarine construction capacity was NOT historically limited compared to other nuke countries; most has only one or two shipyards; US (groton, newport news), UK (barrow-in-furness), france (cherbourg), russia (severodvinsk), china (huludao); I really do NOT understand why US & western media always keep trying to blame and underestimate china; probably political reason than technique itself

I don't see how Samsara is incorrect here. It is extremely evident that the massive expansion at Bohai has only taken place in the recent five years, with visible progress only dating since 2017. This is a matter of fact, not "blame and underestimate China." The truth is the reason why Chinese nuclear submarine production was quite low is because the PLAN decided to focus on quality instead of quantity. Now that the technology for the 09V/09VI (~Seawolf, Virginia classes) has matured, the submarine building capacity needs to be ramped up quickly.

 

[juj06750]

I don't see how Samsara is incorrect here. It is extremely evident that the massive expansion at Bohai has only taken place in the recent five years, with visible progress only dating since 2017. This is a matter of fact, not "blame and underestimate China." The truth is the reason why Chinese nuclear submarine production was quite low is because the PLAN decided to focus on quality instead of quantity. Now that the technology for the 09V/09VI (~Seawolf, Virginia classes) has matured, the submarine building capacity needs to be ramped up quickly.

I don't see why americans view china like that; this US report sounds another matter of politics (rather than its claim itself); again, at this time, US media claims that chinese nuclear submarine capacity is historically limited; simply true once compared to US; but, let see, only US runs many nuclear submarines while others run only few; simply, UK/France/Russia/China nuclear submarine capacity are all limited, compared to US; I meant US never say so against UK/France, but it's saying so against China; it keeps reporting only against China; probably looking for writing another reports against China tomorrow

 

[Deino]

What do you think?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1323557057220485120

 

[samsara]

TTT, now have increased confidence in this article from a week ago, suggesting that this is a new Submarine being built at Bohai, China -- NOV. 12, 2020

H I Sutton - Covert Shores

https://twitter.com/x/status/1326806828680929282

Sutton (12 Nov.): “My initial assessment was based on this low-res Sentinel imagery.
Since then, have been able to use other sources which broadly confirmed what we are looking at, hence new sketch” (see below)

TTT = To The Top; used to promote a discussion thread to the top

Probable First Image Of New Nuclear Submarine Under Construction In China
Flag As the Chinese Navy (PLAN) drives towards becoming a true blue-water Navy, nuclear submarines construction will have to increase. New Type-09V attack submarines and Type-09VI SSBNs are expected to compete with the latest Western models. The Bohai shipyard at Huludao has been expanded to meet the demand, but so far no submarines have emerged from its massive new halls.

New commercial satellite images, taken on November 2, appear to show a large submarine hull section outside the sheds. I have been waiting for exactly this.

-- link as given above; this 03-Nov article posted at the author's own blog is basically a redress of the below one posted at the USNI on 2020-10-12.

Tue 03 November 2020
By H I Sutton

Chinese Increasing Nuclear Submarine Shipyard Capacity

By: H I Sutton | USNI News (2020-10-12)

View attachment 683714
Credit to H I Sutton at the USNI News

As China pushes to become a blue-water power, nuclear-powered submarines are critically important to Beijing’s plan. Historically the Chinese Navy’s (PLAN) nuclear-powered submarine fleet has been constrained by its limited construction capacity. There is only one shipyard in the country up to the task. But that yard has been undergoing a massive enlargement. And now, recent satellite imagery suggests an additional capacity expansion.

China’s nuclear-powered submarine fleet was already expected to get much larger in the coming years. This latest development suggests that China could pump out submarines at an even greater rate.

Just how many nuclear submarines China will build over the next ten years is a hot topic. The Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) recently forecast China’s submarine fleet to grow by six nuclear-powered attack submarines by 2030. Other observers, such as retired Capt. James Fanell who was Director of Intelligence and Information Operations for the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet, place their estimates even higher. What seems clear is that the number of nuclear submarines will increase.

Analysis of commercial satellite imagery reveals work on a NEW CONSTRUCTION HALL at the BOHAI SHIPYARD at Huludao. Liaoning Province. The building appears to be essentially identical to the one built there in 2015. That is widely believed to be for the construction of a new generation of nuclear submarines.

The NEW HALL is estimated to be large enough to allow construction of TWO submarines simultaneously. When added to THE OTHER HALL recently constructed, that would allow FOUR boats to be in the sheds at once. And there is another much older construction hall at the other end of the site which, if still active, could add another. So four or five boats at once.

The nuclear submarines include both ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) and attack submarines (SSN). All nuclear submarines are built at the Bohai shipyard, so its capacity will be a major factor in the total fleet strength.

China’s naval growth has not gone unnoticed in Washington. In response, the U.S. Navy will have to adjust. Outlining the proposed BATTLE FORCE 2045, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said that the U.S. must begin building three Virginia Class submarines per year as soon as possible. This would build a “larger and more capable submarine force”. The proposed force will include 70-80 attack submarines, described as “the most survival strike platform in a future great powers conflict”.

There are THREE NEW CLASSES of submarine which might be built at Bohai. The most straightforward is the Type-09IIIB (also written Type-093B). This is an iterative improvement on the current Type-09IIIA Class submarine. The main improvement expected is the inclusion of cruise missiles in vertical launch tubes. These will allow it to carry an increased load of cruise missiles, improving its strategic strike capability. The YJ-18 cruise missiles are generally analogous to the Russian Kalibr family of missiles. China already operates Kalibr from some of its submarines.

More advanced than the Type-09III family is the next-generation Type-09V Class (aka Type -095). This is expected to be everything the Type-09IIIB is, and also stealthier.

The THIRD projected type is a next-generation ballistic missile submarine (SSBN). the Type-09VI (Type-096) will follow the current generation Type-09IV Class (Type-094). They are expected to augment the six Type-09IV instead of replacing them, leading to a net increase in China’s SSBN fleet. The 2020 China Military Power Report to Congress projected an increase to eight SSBNs by 2030.

At this stage we are still learning new details of the BOHAI SHIPYARD expansion. We have yet to see any submarines roll out of the new halls. And it is possible that the newest shed may be intended for some other purpose. But the takeaway is that China is transforming its submarine construction capabilities. The work at Huludao will remove the physical constraint which previously limited their nuclear navy.

 

[samsara]

From H I Sutton @CovertShores on 2020.11.15:

#SubSunday **New** Submarine cutaway. What you need to know about #China Type-093A Shang-II Class SSN.

The weapons load is more diverse than most Western submarines. In particular, China has developed both thermal and electric heavyweight torpedoes.

The Chinese Navy's Most Powerful Attack Submarine: The Type-093A - Naval News

Submarine expert H I Sutton takes a close look at China's Type 039A submarine and explains what makes it the most powerful attack submarine in the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)'s arsenal.

www.navalnews.com

[Note: this is a new article on the Type 093A SSN dd. 2020-11-15 by Sutton]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1327901296570101765

 

[LKJ86]

Via @北海舰队 from Weixin

 

[LKJ86]

Via @人民海军 from Weixin

 

[LKJ86]

Via https://weibo.com/tv/show/1034:4577729543077904?from=old_pc_videoshow

 

[LKJ86]

 

[LKJ86]

 

[samsara]

From Henri Kenhmann at East Pendulum on 2021.01.02:

Developed by the Chinese Navy University of Naval Medicine, the new submarine personal escape equipment has been successfully tested in the East China Sea. Six submariners participated in the trials. The system allows evacuation up to 200-meter deep.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1345370802519097344

 

[LKJ86]

Via @北海舰队 from Weixin

 

[Last starfighter]

China Will Soon Have More Submarines Than America. That's Alarming.
But one U.S. advantage can shift back the balance of power.
By Kyle Mizokami
DEC 14, 2020

MARK SCHIEFELBEINGETTY IMAGES

• China’s submarine fleet is on track to surpass America’s by 2030.
• The problem is exacerbated by the U.S. Navy’s global mission set, requiring it to send submarines everywhere.
• While this stat is alarming, including the sub fleets of allies like Japan and South Korea shifts the balance of power back away to an America-led coalition.
• In the next 10 years, China will have more submarines than the U.S. Navy, as that country continues to both grow and upgrade its undersea fighting force. The U.S. will have 66 subs of all types by 2030, compared to China’s projected 76. But while the Navy’s submarine fleet will be the third largest in the world, after China and North Korea, raw numbers don’t quite tell the whole story.
• China’s ongoing naval expansion is the largest since World War II. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has amassed a large force of cruisers, destroyers, and amphibious ships, and built the country’s first two aircraft carriers, with a third on the way.
  
  READ THIS
  
  Why Is the Navy Arming Nuclear Subs With Lasers?
  In 1993, China counted 47 submarines, including one marginally useful Xia-class ballistic missile submarine, just five noisy Han-class nuclear powered attack submarines, 34 1950s-era Romeo-class diesel electric submarines, and six older Ming-class submarines. Simply put, China’s submarine force wasn’t terribly useful and was, at best, a coastal defense force.
  
  
  
  
  A Type 094 Jin-class ballistic missile submarine. China currently has four such submarines, with another two under construction.
• Now, after 27 years of double-digit defense spending increases, China’s sub fleet is a different beast altogether.
  
  According to a Congressional Research Service report, by 2019, the PLAN consisted of four ballistic missile submarines, six nuclear-powered attack submarines, and 50 diesel electric attack submarines. All four ballistic missile submarines and all six nuclear attack submarines are new types, while 42 of the 50 diesel electric submarines are also new—the Type 39A, Russian Kilo class, and Yuan-class submarines.
• The PLAN, Naval News reports, isn’t done expanding. The U.S. Navy’s Office of Naval Intelligence projects China’s submarine fleet will grow to 76 submarines by 2030, bringing its total to 76. This includes a net increase of 16 boats, plus the replacement of the approximately eight remaining Ming-class submarines. It could also represent replacing one of two Kilo-class diesel electric attack submarines China purchased from Russia in the late 1990s.
  
  Two of the subs will be equipped with long-range nuclear missiles; the Pentagon’s 2020 China Military report states a pair of Type 094 missile subs are in the process of fitting out, bringing China’s sea-based nuclear deterrent to six submarines.
  
  
  
  
  USS Indiana, a Virginia-class nuclear powered attack submarine, off the coast of Florida, 2018.
  NURPHOTOGETTY IMAGES
  The U.S. submarine fleet will be pretty much static during the 2020-30 period, dropping slightly from 68 subs of all types to 66.
  
  RELATED STORY
  
  Pop Mech Meets the Deadly Seawolf Submarine
  The U.S. Navy has fewer classes of submarines, including the older, improved Los Angeles-class attack submarines built in the 1980s and 1990s, the trio of Seawolf-class attack submarines, 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines, and the newer Virginia-class attack submarines. All American submarines are nuclear-powered.
• China’s submarine fleet has made dramatic advances, but it also faces problems. On one hand, most of the fleet is fairly modern and new. On the other, most of it still consists of diesel electric submarines with limited range, and Chinese subs aren't as quiet as American subs.
  
  Only six out of China’s 56 attack submarines could cross the Pacific to threaten naval bases in Hawaii or the continental U.S. All of America’s submarines, however, could cross the Pacific to operate off the coast of the Asian mainland. Another problem? China has few real allies with submarine fleets of their own, with the exception of Pakistan and its fleet of five aging submarines.
  
  YOU'LL LOVE THIS
  
  The Sea Shadow, America's 'Invisible Warship'
  The U.S. Navy is in for a slight dip in overall numbers, but things get better after the 2030 timeframe. The Navy’s new 30-year shipbuilding plan sees the service increasing the number of submarines built from two a year to generally three a year by 2025. The number of nuclear-powered attack submarines reaches a bottom of 50 in 2025, but gradually rebounds, reaching 61 by 2035 and 80 by 2051. The total number of all U.S. submarines will reach 93 by 2051 ... if the Navy is able to afford them.
  
  Meanwhile, the 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines are replaced by 12 new Columbia-class submarines, and the four Ohio-class cruise missile submarines fade from the force entirely. But there are hints they could be replaced by new boats based on the Columbia submarine hull.
  
  
  
  
  Kenryu, a Soryu-class attack submarine of the Japan Maritime Self Defense Forces, 2012.
• The U.S. Navy has another, often invisible advantage over China: the submarine fleets of its allies. Japan has 22 diesel electric attack submarines, including 12 of the excellent Soryu class, while South Korea operates 18 smaller diesel electric attack submarines. Taiwan operates just two aging submarines, but is embarking on an effort to build eight new subs.
  
  A future conflict in the Pacific would involve at least some, if not all, of these fleets, bolstering the Navy’s numbers.

 

[Figaro]

Indeed but until China deploys the 09Vs, their SSN fleet is still severely lacking against the USN. The 093B is comparable to the 688i, so the PLAN really needs the 09V to counter the Seawolf and Virginia class SSNs.

 

[Titanium100]

Chinas way to victory is EMP strike. With first strike policy and if the reverse happens they are finished. The submarines will be symbolic only and then they can rolle over unified europe.

Its like a 100 meter dash where you gotta get the yellow card by dashing out first