China's GDP was 17.7 trillion USD in 2021

[Mista]

After the release of GDP data, the National Bureau of statistics just quietly released a bad news: In 2021, China's population had grow by only 480000. We are about to face negative population growth.
wtf, I'm afraid our population situation is worse than expected.

Seems like China has reached peak population in 2021.

 

[nang2]

China will match the US GDP before it passes Western Europe's GDP per capita levels. China will probably surpass US GDP in the late 20s. And surpass Western Europe's GDP per capita in the 30s.

GDP is a very confusing term. It doesn't tell you the actual wealth creation. It emphasizes on consumer expenditure and downplays the capital expenditure. In the end, the population growth ends up playing a much bigger role in GDP growth than it should. It generates unnecessary fear towards population contraction. On the other hand, capital expenditure is a more important wealth creation engine as it builds up capitals that lead to productivity increase, which is real source of wealth creation. A smaller population would mean more capital per capita. Doesn't that give hope on higher productivity?

I think we should do so:
1, the govt legislated against abortion and protected the right to life of all zygotes.
2, the govt subsidizes the delivery of pregnant women and keeps the fertility confidential in order to better protect women's rights.
3, the govt has set up abandoned baby islands in each city, where abandoned babies are taken in and raised by the govt, and better protect human rights.
4, A social support tax of 4% of the salary will be levied on adults over the age of 30, with a tax rebate of 50% for giving birth to one child and 100% for giving birth to two children.
5, Milk powder, diapers, children's clothing and other commodities are duty-free. Kindergartens are exempt from tax and subsidized.

The same zealousness as when CCP implemented the one-child policy. China need steady population, not population yo-yo. Why not just keep the government out of couple's bedrooms?

 

[dBSPL]

I think the most important factor is that China's purchasing power as a local currency is now at the level of 30 trillion dollars. In other words, the total purchasing power of the Chinese people is more than is thought.

 

[Shotgunner51]

I think the most important factor is that China's purchasing power as a local currency is now at the level of 30 trillion dollars. In other words, the total purchasing power of the Chinese people is more than is thought.

Yes the economy is sizable when measured in RMB or real terms like tons of steel produced, kWh of electricity generated, even number of cars sold or anything. But the picture looks different when viewed through the lens of dollar, aka converted to dollar using prevailing exchange rate (around 6.35), which is ... mysterious.

Another factor despite being minor why China GDP looks small is practice. Like most countries China practice IMF SNA2008, but a few other countries like US includes imputation (estimated at around 15%) into their GDP figures.

Why does GDP include imputations? | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Gross domestic product (GDP) is a comprehensive measure of the nation’s production. In order to be comprehensive, it must include some goods and services that are not traded in the market place. Those components of the GDP are called imputations. Examples include the services of owner-occupied...

www.bea.gov

PBoC will continue to prevent RMB from appreciating too fast in order to maintain gigantic surplus as well as creditor position, while US will continue to uphold dollar status quo to boast "world's largest economy (measured in dollar)" title, win-win for both countries.

 

[beijingwalker]

I think the most important factor is that China's purchasing power as a local currency is now at the level of 30 trillion dollars. In other words, the total purchasing power of the Chinese people is more than is thought.

That's why we can spend way less money on our defence budget but get way more things done.

 

[dBSPL]

Yes the economy is sizable when measured in RMB or real terms like tons of steel produced, kWh of electricity generated, even number of cars sold or anything. But the picture looks different when viewed through the lens of dollar, aka converted to dollar using prevailing exchange rate (around 6.35), which is ... mysterious.

Another factor despite being minor why China GDP looks small is practice. Like most countries China practice IMF SNA2008, while a few other countries like US includes imputation (estimated at around 15%).

Why does GDP include imputations? | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Gross domestic product (GDP) is a comprehensive measure of the nation’s production. In order to be comprehensive, it must include some goods and services that are not traded in the market place. Those components of the GDP are called imputations. Examples include the services of owner-occupied...

www.bea.gov

PBoC will continue to prevent RMB from appreciating too fast in order to maintain gigantic surplus as well as creditor position, while US will continue to uphold dollar status quo to boast "world's largest economy (**measured in dollar)" title, win-win for both countries.

IMHO here are two important blind spots about US$ base economic indicators. The first is that as the US's control over global production functions declines, it becomes an extremely weak reference in determining real 'universal' purchasing power, apart from its political value.

Here, it is necessary to open a parenthesis on another issue: There is no printed dollar to meet the total dollar value traded in the world markets. One of the facts that has come to light especially with the last pandemic process is that there is an uncontrolled money printing without a physical equivalent. In short, the economic model applied against the debt stock that is more than assets is printing more money. It's a dead end because if you slow down the economy, the system will collapse, but as you print more money, you will perpetuate inflation.

While the US tried to encircle China with a military perspective, China implemented a well-designed strategy to immerse the US in this quagmire. China is not only a global production center, but with the power it creates, it has now broken the US monopoly in world food security and raw material security. Let alone strategic rare earths, a much simpler example is that China's increased wheat and maize stockpiles cost the US economy billions of dollars in additional costs, all indirectly reflected in the purchasing power of the US people. While the purchasing power of the dollar in the hands of the households whose currency is the dollar decreases, purchasing power of the households in other countries increasing if we compare them with US residents.

If you are not in control of your purchasing power and inflation policy, how important is it that you determine the political value of the dollar?

On the other side of the coin, there is another blind spot, the lack of a common standard of money markets and supervisory institutions in the world. For example, when a local central bank fixes the dollar rate, is the rate determined by this central bank valid in whole world markets? No, you simply cannot find dollars, something is written on paper, but it does not correspond to it in the real economy.

How many currency types in the world have fair value in terms of local currencies? Some countries develop models on a weaker currency, while others on a stronger local currency. Some states, on the other hand, are advancing in a model that has completely surrendered their fate to others in their economic policies.

I think that the use of these dollar-indexed indicators will gradually decrease in the coming period and that the functions created over the local real equivalents of goods and services will be used more. If I have to link the topic; China has already surpassed the USA in terms of all production and supply items. The current confusion has to do with the mathematical methods used, where using an already speculative value as a multiplier turns it into a double unknown equation.

 

[TheSolution]

Implement tax incentives for having children but also provide small welfare payments for those who earn under a certain amount with children, and assist with housing payments too if they can show proof that they are unable to pay.

And also run a media campaign to promote having children, you know like "baby fever", and that happy family type of vibe. Even in school textbooks and education curriculum, promote success and optimal life goals as being "educated, having a job/business, a spouse and a kid, with a home". Peddle that like how Indians peddle their propaganda.

In terms of abortion, you can have an age limit, so from 18-40, no abortion allowed and argue it based on moral grounds for terminating life.

Exclude incest and rape.

 

[nang2]

IMHO here are two important blind spots about US$ base economic indicators. The first is that as the US's control over global production functions declines, it becomes an extremely weak reference in determining real 'universal' purchasing power, apart from its political value.

Here, it is necessary to open a parenthesis on another issue: There is no printed dollar to meet the total dollar value traded in the world markets. One of the facts that has come to light especially with the last pandemic process is that there is an uncontrolled money printing without a physical equivalent. In short, the economic model applied against the debt stock that is more than assets is printing more money. It's a dead end because if you slow down the economy, the system will collapse, but as you print more money, you will perpetuate inflation.

While the US tried to encircle China with a military perspective, China implemented a well-designed strategy to immerse the US in this quagmire. China is not only a global production center, but with the power it creates, it has now broken the US monopoly in world food security and raw material security. Let alone strategic rare earths, a much simpler example is that China's increased wheat and maize stockpiles cost the US economy billions of dollars in additional costs, all indirectly reflected in the purchasing power of the US people. While the purchasing power of the dollar in the hands of the households whose currency is the dollar decreases, purchasing power of the households in other countries increasing if we compare them with US residents.

If you are not in control of your purchasing power and inflation policy, how important is it that you determine the political value of the dollar?

On the other side of the coin, there is another blind spot, the lack of a common standard of money markets and supervisory institutions in the world. For example, when a local central bank fixes the dollar rate, is the rate determined by this central bank valid in whole world markets? No, you simply cannot find dollars, something is written on paper, but it does not correspond to it in the real economy.

How many currency types in the world have fair value in terms of local currencies? Some countries develop models on a weaker currency, while others on a stronger local currency. Some states, on the other hand, are advancing in a model that has completely surrendered their fate to others in their economic policies.

I think that the use of these dollar-indexed indicators will gradually decrease in the coming period and that the functions created over the local real equivalents of goods and services will be used more. If I have to link the topic; China has already surpassed the USA in terms of all production and supply items. The current confusion has to do with the mathematical methods used, where using an already speculative value as a multiplier turns it into a double unknown equation.

The quagmire you talked about wasn't because China dragged US into it. It was US' own making by its own conscious design, ever since the creation of Federal Reserve. Like all ancient civilizations, it is always very tempting to use inflation tax that a government can spend on without the political fall-out of actually raising tax. Of course, to successfully pull this off, you need a large army of tax payers. It is no mystery that both Federal Reserve Act and the 16th constitutional amendment that enabled income tax were created in the same year - 1913. From then on, the banking cartel run by the Federal Reserve found a good sucker (tax payers) to bail out failing banks and the government found an easy way to get money to spend, from the printing machine of Federal Reserve.

Of course, that would be too obvious to get passed by the congress so Federal Reserve ran by the gold standard as an evasive maneuver to get the buy-in from the congress. The show was over when US permanently dropped the gold standard in 1971.

All of that happened long before China entered the world economic stage.

 

[nang2]

PBoC will continue to prevent RMB from appreciating too fast in order to maintain gigantic surplus as well as creditor position, while US will continue to uphold dollar status quo to boast "world's largest economy (measured in dollar)" title, win-win for both countries.

When the interest rate is low and money printing machine is driving inflation, creditor position is a loser's position. It is more profitable to be a debtor since both the low interest rate and the inflation mean it would be easier for you to pay off the debt in the future. China being the creditor is only because of some unfortunate situation that it has to tackle, which is likely to be the unemployment pressure. You need export industry to soak up the unemployment.

Germany experienced a run-away hyper inflation in 1930s. A positive side-effect of this economic disaster was that its massive war debt was virtually wiped clean.

 

[Shotgunner51]

When the interest rate is low and money printing machine is driving inflation, creditor position is a loser's position. It is more profitable to be a debtor since both the low interest rate and the inflation mean it would be easier for you to pay off the debt in the future. China being the creditor is only because of some unfortunate situation that it has to tackle, which is likely to be the unemployment pressure. You need export industry to soak up the unemployment.

A creditor position simply means at a certain point of time, his assets (cash, equities, bonds, fixed assets, cars ..) exceeds his liabilities, and now such position is described as "loser" according to you, while the opposite aka debtor position is a "winner", that's a refreshing perspective I must say, thanks for sharing! You must be a fortunate winner aka in debtor position I suppose? Congrats. And if so, tell me how your negative position now helps you pay back the debt in the future?

 

[nang2]

A creditor position simply means at a certain point of time, his assets (cash, equities, bonds, fixed assets, cars ..) exceeds his liabilities, and now such position is described as "loser" according to you, while debtor position is a "winner", that's refreshing. You must be a winner aka in debtor position I suppose? If so, how your position now helps you pay back debt in the future?

Being a creditor or being a debtor is not intrinsically winning or losing. It all depends on whether it is good for you money wise. That is why when interest rate is low, people are rushing into loans to buy houses. Trading some easy loan with real asset like house is a winning business. On the other hand, when the interest rate is high, the loan becomes heavier and the pay-out from the real asset must be high enough to compensate in order to win, which is now more difficult. The debtor could end up losing more.

The current situation is that Federal Reserve and US government have been sending paper money to China in exchange of real goods that their people can enjoy. What Chinese get is a pile of green bills that they are currently even having a hard time buying US dollar denominated assets with. Do you prefer Chinese enjoy real goods or just stare at that pile of green bills and call it a good life?

 

[Shotgunner51]

Being a creditor of being a debtor is not intrinsically winning or losing. It all depends on whether it is good for you money wise.

That wasn't what you said, check again bro.

Of course when loan is cheap I will leverage it on buying asset, and deleverage when loan is expensive, so that AT ANY TIME my asset value will exceed loan so I'm ALWAYS in positive position.

Under what situation that your negative position now be "good" and my positive position "bad"?

Do you prefer Chinese enjoy real goods or just stare at that pile of green bills and call it a good life?

Yes I'm staring at a pile of green bills right now, and yes the trouble is finding the right assets to buy I've tried oil gold iron ore stocks bonds whatever possible, you call that bad life?

 

[nang2]

That wasn't what you said, check again bro.

Of course when loan is cheap I will leverage it on buying asset, and deleverage when loan is expensive, so that AT ANY TIME my asset value will exceed loan so I'm ALWAYS in positive position.

How does your negative position now be "good" and my positive position "bad"?

That is exactly what I said. Read my first sentence, particularly then "when" part. I said now being a creditor to US is a loser because Federal Reserve is flooding the market with US dollars and US government is piling up more and more debts, covered by the printed money. On the other hand, if US is practicing sound money and has strong fiscal disciplines, then I would say being a creditor to US is a winner. But that is not happening.

By the way, I am following the same guideline myself as I am gradually offloading US treasure in my own portfolio. I am more than happy to sell it to you.

 

[Shotgunner51]

That is exactly what I said. Read my first sentence, particularly then "when" part. I said now being a creditor to US is a loser because Federal Reserve is flooding the market with US dollars and US government is piling up more and more debts, covered by the printed money. On the other hand, if US is practicing sound money and has strong fiscal disciplines, then I would say being a creditor to US is a winner. But that is not happening.

By the way, I am following the same guideline myself as I am gradually offloading US treasure in my own portfolio. I am more than happy to sell it to you.

There is no "when" bro, cos under no circumstances your negative position does you any good, unless you tell me that's your goal. And yes bro you better offload those T-bills cos the return is too low, unless you wanna sink further from your already negative position (winner) now.

 

[Stranagor]

Dongguan expected to become 24th city in China with over 1 trillion yuan GDP

chinadaily.com.cn · | January 13, 2022

The local authority in Dongguan, Guangdong province, projected the city's economy to surpass 1 trillion yuan ($160 billion) for the first time in 2021.

http://t.m.china.org.cn/convert/c_ytTKkWCw.html