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The stark gap in numbers, technical capabilities and experience mean that China's aircraft carrier will be a "burden" as opposed to a "weapon" in a hypothetical head-to-head naval battle with the United States, says the Kanwa Defense Review, a Chinese-language military magazine based in Canada.
The magazine's March issue said it will not matter that China will have three aircraft carriers within the next 10 years after adding two more carriers to its one and only carrier so far, the Liaoning.
By then, the US will still maintain a significant advantage with its fleet of 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, though the bigger problem for China is that the US will always have operational and technical superiority in any carrier confrontation.
According to the report, the situation would be similar to that of the Falklands War between Argentina and the United Kingdom in 1982. In the 74-day conflict in which the UK retook the islands following the Argentine invasion, Argentina's ARA Veinticinco de Mayo aircraft carrier more or less became a burden because of a sizable gap in carrier combat capabilities and experience.
The UK deployed at least two nuclear submarines — the biggest threat to aircraft carriers — one of which, HMS Conqueror, sank the Argentine light cruiser General Belgrano, after which the remainder of the Argentine fleet returned to port and ceded naval control to the British task force for the rest of the conflict. The UK won because it was much better at protecting its aircraft carriers and took advantage of Argentina's lack of anti-submarine capabilities, the report said, adding that the UK also had far more operational experience and air saturation attack capabilities, which is lethal for aircraft carriers in modern combat.
If China were to take on the US in a naval conflict today, the Liaoning would be as ineffective as the ARA Veinticinco de Mayo proved to be, the report said. The US has nearly 90 years of experience with aircraft carrier task forces, more than any other country in the world, and despite its rapid advancements, China's anti-submarine capabilities and carrier protection techniques will still be behind the US and Japan after 10 or even 20 years.
China's anti-submarine aircraft are more than a generation behind in terms of technology compared to the US and Japan. Japan has more than 80 P-3 Orion four-engine turboprop anti-submarine aircraft, while the US has the more advanced P-8 Poseidon. China on the other hand has only two Y-8GX6 — or Gaoxin-6 — anti-submarine aircraft.
Furthermore, US aircraft carriers can carry five to eight S-3B sub-hunting aircraft and five to eight SH-60F/R anti-submarine helicopters, while China only started testing the Changhe Z-18 anti-submarine helicopter last July.
Beneath the waves, the US has 61 nuclear submarines, while Japan has about 16 world-class conventionally powered subs. All of them are equipped with long-range anti-ship missiles.
In the air, the US will be switching over the next 30 years to the highly advanced F-35C/B, which has better stealth capabilities and long-distance attacking power than any of China's fighter jets.
In terms of functionality, the US has a diverse range of anti-ship missiles including the 370-kilometer-range AGM-158, the 130-km-range AGM-154 and the 270-km-range AGM84H/K, with long-range anti-ship missiles capable of hitting targets nearly 1,000 km away still in development. In a saturated air attack, the US can launch more than a hundred warheads in under a minute, more than any current missile defense system can fend off.
Accordingly, the report said the only move for China in a hypothetical naval conflict would be to avoid an aircraft carrier battle, but it also means that the PLA will need to substantially improve its air defense and anti-submarine capabilities as well increase its land-to-air firepower and number of fighter jets.
Liaoning carrier would be a liability in a war with US: Kanwa|Politics|News|WantChinaTimes.com
The magazine's March issue said it will not matter that China will have three aircraft carriers within the next 10 years after adding two more carriers to its one and only carrier so far, the Liaoning.
By then, the US will still maintain a significant advantage with its fleet of 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, though the bigger problem for China is that the US will always have operational and technical superiority in any carrier confrontation.
According to the report, the situation would be similar to that of the Falklands War between Argentina and the United Kingdom in 1982. In the 74-day conflict in which the UK retook the islands following the Argentine invasion, Argentina's ARA Veinticinco de Mayo aircraft carrier more or less became a burden because of a sizable gap in carrier combat capabilities and experience.
The UK deployed at least two nuclear submarines — the biggest threat to aircraft carriers — one of which, HMS Conqueror, sank the Argentine light cruiser General Belgrano, after which the remainder of the Argentine fleet returned to port and ceded naval control to the British task force for the rest of the conflict. The UK won because it was much better at protecting its aircraft carriers and took advantage of Argentina's lack of anti-submarine capabilities, the report said, adding that the UK also had far more operational experience and air saturation attack capabilities, which is lethal for aircraft carriers in modern combat.
If China were to take on the US in a naval conflict today, the Liaoning would be as ineffective as the ARA Veinticinco de Mayo proved to be, the report said. The US has nearly 90 years of experience with aircraft carrier task forces, more than any other country in the world, and despite its rapid advancements, China's anti-submarine capabilities and carrier protection techniques will still be behind the US and Japan after 10 or even 20 years.
China's anti-submarine aircraft are more than a generation behind in terms of technology compared to the US and Japan. Japan has more than 80 P-3 Orion four-engine turboprop anti-submarine aircraft, while the US has the more advanced P-8 Poseidon. China on the other hand has only two Y-8GX6 — or Gaoxin-6 — anti-submarine aircraft.
Furthermore, US aircraft carriers can carry five to eight S-3B sub-hunting aircraft and five to eight SH-60F/R anti-submarine helicopters, while China only started testing the Changhe Z-18 anti-submarine helicopter last July.
Beneath the waves, the US has 61 nuclear submarines, while Japan has about 16 world-class conventionally powered subs. All of them are equipped with long-range anti-ship missiles.
In the air, the US will be switching over the next 30 years to the highly advanced F-35C/B, which has better stealth capabilities and long-distance attacking power than any of China's fighter jets.
In terms of functionality, the US has a diverse range of anti-ship missiles including the 370-kilometer-range AGM-158, the 130-km-range AGM-154 and the 270-km-range AGM84H/K, with long-range anti-ship missiles capable of hitting targets nearly 1,000 km away still in development. In a saturated air attack, the US can launch more than a hundred warheads in under a minute, more than any current missile defense system can fend off.
Accordingly, the report said the only move for China in a hypothetical naval conflict would be to avoid an aircraft carrier battle, but it also means that the PLA will need to substantially improve its air defense and anti-submarine capabilities as well increase its land-to-air firepower and number of fighter jets.
Liaoning carrier would be a liability in a war with US: Kanwa|Politics|News|WantChinaTimes.com