China Needs to Make a Military Strike Now - My Personal Assessment

[Mr.S.Singh]

What about other manufacturing giants in the west that grew without any closed economic system?

None ... all of them were protected .. they liberated in the 80's ... they had their protection era

Yes, it is true that India needs to increase manufacturing. But the thought process that we need a closed system to bring that about is flawed, and has been proven so by history. It was that thinking that made us close our markets and abolish all foreign products. What happened? Neither did Indian manufacturing flourish, nor did Indians get access to affordable manufactured goods. Manufactured goods became a priviledge of the rich. Since we opened up our markets, our manufacturing has only improved - although, not as much as needed. And the common person's purchasing power has grown by leaps and bounds.

okay i'll tell you the economic reasons nothing to do with being an India, more India companies ... less lose to forex reserves .. they MNC do take their money back which hits our reserves. Why do you think china has such huge reserves ?

See ... Why india lacks in product innovation is because we do not encourage entrepreneurs. Indians can challenge indians itself ... provide them with easy capital first. We will open out market ... but first we need to nurture our breed of entrepreneurs who actually will drive your economy forward

 

[AKIRAKUMA]

The World will happy to see China economy collapse, eight nations alliance can dominate and enslave weak China again

Have you never considered refugees?A large number of Chinese refugees...Vietnamese border with China.China has a complete industrial system,want full-scale war with China...This is definitely a disaster . Economically, let the China country collapse only the United States can.
Modern warfare, the first attack enemy airports, ports, and then rocket bombardment, you need is strategic depth.
East Asia War, the last benefit may be the United States, Russia, India.

 

[TaiShang]

It is now a PR (public relation) battle between Vietnam/Phil and China. China is loosing. It is clear that the US is working overtime to give China a bad image (not just in the SCS, but also in the G7 and trade such as the hacking accusations) .Most western media paints China as the agressor in the SCS. CCP are now aware of this and trying to (hopelessly) rectify it in the UN.

The Western media has never been warm to China; this is not the thing of last month. So, nothing new on that front. PR is PR, it is not the law of relativity; perception can be altered. No one really wastes all their energy to maintain a perception forever good. You can act on your national interest first, and then work to straight up your image. Did the US care a bit about their perception when their national interest demanded that Saddam should go and Iraq should be divided?

This is not to say that China should ever start a skirmish. China should (and will) never shoot first.

Japan has become more militarized. Abe succeeded in modifying the arms export ban. With the blessing of the US, Japan nominated itself to become a military leader in Asia and Phil/Vietnam are happy to accept this. CCP did not foresee this 5-6 years ago.

That was destined to happen. Again, that's a process not a singular development. So what of the Viet and Phil are happy to accept; does their opinion really matter? Would Japan care if they disagreed? It is Japan's sovereign (hopefully) decision to decide to do whatever they want with their national defense. So long as not embedded in the US, this is not a concern for China. if Mr. Abe is able to liberate Japan's foreign policy from the US yoke, that's even encouraging.

Philippines is also becoming militarized. They no longer mind spending money on military arms.

Vietnam becomes more hardened and stubborn. Instead of becoming less anti-Chinese and start negotiating, they've become even more pro-US and pro-Japan.

Vietnamese civilian is quite unruly and extremely anti-Chinese. The country is quite unstabe and prone to a colour revolution.

Phil and Viet can militarize; who would care about that? Does not Venezuela or Bolivia buy arms? Probably on a larger scale than the dirt poor Phil or Viet. Would that bother the US even a bit?

Color revolution in Vietland is not a concern, either. The worst would be a Thailand-like scenario since I do not believe that the military would really allow that to happen.

It is in China's interest to see Vietnam become liable economic powers (a larger market for Chinese goods) but this cannot come at the cost of China's sovereignty.

So when August come and the rig goes home, nothing will be achieved. China will gain no new island or territory. Her image will take a bit hit. If the rig stay longer, her image will even be more damaged and Phil/Viet will be more hardened.

Where the rig will go from there is not clear. Besides, the area is already under Chinese sovereignty. That will not change when the rig leaves. Those waters will be monitored by the Navy.

The US will be welcomed back to Asia more than ever by the Phil and VN. VCP will become very pro-US or the country may even have a colour revolution. With a pro-US government and military support from the US, it will even be harder to take back the VN-occupied Island in the SCS.

The rebalance is an old story. US is not any more entrenched than it was a month ago. The US will not do anything when it comes to taking the islands back. They will have to fire at the Chinese Navy to stop it from monitoring the areas.

It can choke China or it can be used to trigger an arms conflict between China and VN/Phil in the future or it can be used to control Japan and S.Korea should they want to be more independent from the US (SCS is also the main trading route and lifeline for Japan/S.Korea). All of this is not good for the stability and growth of China.

US is already in control of the chokepoints all the way from the Hormuz to Malacca. So, practically, even without the Pinoy and Viet, they have the capability. If SK and JP (hopefully) adopt a more independent policy, they US will only have to listen to their demand. SK or JP are not pushovers. They are under US control because of their sold-out leadership, not because they are weak.

If you take all this into account, the best option for China is to make a quick and effective military strike against Vietnam to take back all the occupied Islands, destroy their airforce and naval assests and facilities. No need to occupy or enter their country. Here are the reasons why this is the best option and needs to happen now.

Should never happen. China should never be the one to fire the first shot. Lip service is OK, but keep war out of the picture. As long as China does not fire first, others will not dare it. Russia is under even greater strain with a much smaller economy but they are able to hold and actually deliver some good strategic points. China can win on the table, no need to go to the battlefield.

Note to the members: Take every poster's ideas as their own, but not as reflective of their nation. Nation is too big a concept to represented here. And no country actually share its foreign policy strategy with posters on PDF or CDF or others. We are, at best, making educated guesses. Online forums are not the holy grails of eternal truth.

 

[xesy]

Phil and Viet can militarize; who would care about that? Does not Venezuela or Bolivia buy arms? Probably on a larger scale than the dirt poor Phil or Viet. Would that bother the US even a bit?

I have to disagree with you on that. As Philipine and Vietnam militarize, China will also take steps to counter that. For example, if Vietnam buys more submarines, China will also build or buy more submarine hunter to send to SCS. The arm race will put extreme burden on all countries economy.

That also make the US happy, since they are the major weapon seller. Phillipine will certainly buy weapons from US, and Vietnam is convincing US to lift the ban to buy some advanced navy airplane.

 

[Raphael]

OP sounds like he's swallowed too much Western propaganda about Vietnam's 'moral' victory and how letting some cheap VN-PH alliance materialize is some huge strategic blunder, just like how they presented the Crimean crisis as some 'moral' victory for the West. In reality, the facts on the ground were that Ukraine got dismembered, the US couldn't do anything about it, and Russia annexed Ukraine and secured mastery over the Black Sea, turning it into a Russian lake. Same case here: China is drilling away, and Uncle Sam is paying lip service to the delusional Viets but won't dare do anything. There's no need to fire any more shots when we are winning handily.

 

[TaiShang]

I have to disagree with you on that. As Philipine and Vietnam militarize, China will also take steps to counter that. For example, if Vietnam buys more submarines, China will also build or buy more submarine hunter to send to SCS. The arm race will put extreme burden on all countries economy.

That also make the US happy, since they are the major weapon seller. Phillipine will certainly buy weapons from US, and Vietnam is convincing US to lift the ban to buy some advanced navy airplane.

China will modernize its army with Vietnam arming itself or not. And, at least for the foreseeable future, Chinese modernization will be both qualitatively and quantitatively superior to that of Vietnam. Thus, Vietnam's weapons procurement will not change the strategic standing of the two nations. This is because the two nations are on completely separate leagues.

Most Chinese modernization is indigenous; so, whatever money spent will stay at home. It will create a strong military industrial complex and that, hopefully, will translate into innovative civilian technology. Vietnam, to the contrary, will have to pay in cash to the foreign coffers. Real, hard earned money will go to foreign hands. That will come at the cost of many civilian/social programs.

That's because China and Vietnam's economies of scale are not uniform.

 

[NiceGuy]

No, this is not true. Japan and China are too intertwined economically. A destruction of China's industrial sector will damage Japan as well. We have over 4,000+ multi-billion dollar businesses invested and imbedded in China. And it is very difficult to divorce that. I'm talking about Zaibatsu's such as Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toyota Heavy Industries, Toyota Motor Corporation, Honda, Nissan, Mitsui Heavy Industries, Sumitomo , Yasuda, Nomura, Okura , Riken, Nakajima , Suzuki Shoten etc....

So, a destruction of China's industry and economy would also affect Japan, severely.

Then shift ur companies to other nations , coz we will find the way to destroy China economy to take back our islands. U can see how mad we r in the last Riot, right

 

[NiceGuy]

An ultra nationalist, aren't you? China sunk our fishing boat does not mean we are ok to sink their merchant ships. Don't go around destroying Vietnam image like that.

And don't make statement like "most VNese want war". We are ready for war, but never want it. You must get it right. Keep your head cool, don't fall for troll baits and provocations, use logic and reason to fight back. If you cannot do that, then I am sure there are more useful activities out there other than quarelling with Chinese members and threatening about war.

When war happen, we can sink anything that moves, merchant ship can be a disguised warships with missile inside container.

Have you never considered refugees?A large number of Chinese refugees...Vietnamese border with China.China has a complete industrial system,want full-scale war with China...This is definitely a disaster . Economically, let the China country collapse only the United States can.
Modern warfare, the first attack enemy airports, ports, and then rocket bombardment, you need is strategic depth.
East Asia War, the last benefit may be the United States, Russia, India.

If we sink all China merchant ship passing through SCS(east sea), China economy surely collapse coz u can not get raw material to produce goods and u can not trade with ASEAN-Africa-Middle east region too.

China army suck, u have No chance to defeat VN on land and sea. Our army is perfect on land war and we r expert in using missile to take down enemies air craft and warship.

 

[xesy]

When war happen, we can sink anything that moves, merchant ship can be a disguised warships with missile inside container.

If we sink all China merchant ship passing through SCS(east sea), China economy surely collapse coz u can not get raw material to produce goods and u can not trade with ASEAN-Africa-Middle east region too.

China army suck, u have No chance to defeat VN on land and sea. Our army is perfect on land war and we r expert in using missile to take down enemies air craft and warship.

To be precised, we put up a warning to the sea where conflicts can happen, same goes to the airspaces. Any vehicles which pass through can be attacked as they are on a warzone. Of course we must scout before hand. Can't let uninvolved parties be harmed there.

China will modernize its army with Vietnam arming itself or not. And, at least for the foreseeable future, Chinese modernization will be both qualitatively and quantitatively superior to that of Vietnam. Thus, Vietnam's weapons procurement will not change the strategic standing of the two nations. This is because the two nations are on completely separate leagues.

Most Chinese modernization is indigenous; so, whatever money spent will stay at home. It will create a strong military industrial complex and that, hopefully, will translate into innovative civilian technology. Vietnam, to the contrary, will have to pay in cash to the foreign coffers. Real, hard earned money will go to foreign hands. That will come at the cost of many civilian/social programs.

That's because China and Vietnam's economies of scale are not uniform.

Vietnam does not have much choice. We still have to deal with porverty. Vietnam and China are on different leagues but hey, Vietnam can still pose a threat to China.

 

[Zero_wing]

I have to disagree with you on that. As Philipine and Vietnam militarize, China will also take steps to counter that. For example, if Vietnam buys more submarines, China will also build or buy more submarine hunter to send to SCS. The arm race will put extreme burden on all countries economy.

That also make the US happy, since they are the major weapon seller. Phillipine will certainly buy weapons from US, and Vietnam is convincing US to lift the ban to buy some advanced navy airplane.

Let me stop you there first we are now taking arms from other countries and sir its Phillipines dont be like the imperial SOBs here ok most of our new equipment are from South Kkorea, Israel, and Croatia, Turkey, and Indonesia and Brazil (if the Super Tacanos will still be bought) and lastly British and European mostly German or Poland equipment and weapons we are only buying limited guns and equipments from America due to higher maintiance and upgrading fees we have to pay plus a long waiting list and conditional agreements we have to follow and it cost a lot added along with old US equipment that we are incurrently processing for upgrading or refurbishing or phasing out of service.

 

[TaiShang]

Vietnam does not have much choice. We still have to deal with porverty. Vietnam and China are on different leagues but hey, Vietnam can still pose a threat to China.

That's I agree. Anything poses threat to anything. Like, everyday we commute to our workplace, we are under constant threat of external forces. Vietnam would pose a threat, just as Iraq used to pose a threat to the US in the form of IEDs and snipers.

In war, national survival is preferred over individual survival.

But I know Vietnamese leadership will not start a war over some islands that they have lost and know they will never have control again.

 

[xesy]

Let me stop you there first we are now taking arms from other countries and sir its Phillipines dont be like the imperial SOBs here ok most of our new equipment are from South Kkorea, Israel, and Croatia, Turkey, and Indonesia and Brazil (if the Super Tacanos will still be bought) and lastly British and European mostly German or Poland equipment and weapons we are only buying limited guns and equipments from America due to higher maintiance and upgrading fees we have to pay plus a long waiting list and conditional agreements we have to follow and it cost a lot added along with old US equipment that we are incurrently processing for upgrading or refurbishing or phasing out of service.

My mistake.

But I know Vietnamese leadership will not start a war over some islands that they have lost and know they will never have control again.

I agree on that. From the first place Vietnamese citizens do not lose much when China first took control of the island. T
However the rig stirs things up as China place a no fishing zone around the rig for Vietnam ==> No place to fish for Vietnam ==> Vietnam civilians lose something here ==> The crowd is angry and want the govt to do something.
The tension is not about the island anymore but about the water around them.

 

[cnleio]

When war happen, we can sink anything that moves, merchant ship can be a disguised warships with missile inside container.

If we sink all China merchant ship passing through SCS(east sea), China economy surely collapse coz u can not get raw material to produce goods and u can not trade with ASEAN-Africa-Middle east region too.

China army suck, u have No chance to defeat VN on land and sea. Our army is perfect on land war and we r expert in using missile to take down enemies air craft and warship.

Whatever... just do it as possible as u can.

 

[l'ingénieur]

No they don't.

 

[jkroo]

The mighty Vietnam is ready for fight. They trvelled more than 150 miles to the place to swap ships of China where Our Zhongjian island is just nearby.
They claim that they had defeat USA, France, Jappan and China. Maybe they also caused Soviet Union collapsed who knows. How dare you to fight the strongest country on earth?! It's crazy, man!