China Needs to Make a Military Strike Now - My Personal Assessment

[janon]

It's all about the momentum.
In the earlier decades in Hong Kong, we had a system similar to the one now in the Mainland, or Singapore.
Now it is different. Hong Kong is already developed, and we lost our momentum.
What I see in the Mainland now is the same energy which once built Hong Kong, just look at Shanghai to see an example.

I am aware of all that. The point is that the mainland's earlier economic policies were keeping people in poverty (just as in India). Then mainland China underwent massive reforms. But HK always had a good economic system that made people prosperous, even without any natural resources to exploit. So why not adopt that good system that has always worked, and continues to work? Even today, when Chinese economists and policy makers talk about further reforms, what they are advocating is moving further towards HK's economic model.

The Mainland government has brought what, 800 million people out of poverty? More than any other country in the history of the world.

Could the current HK system do the same thing? That would be a huge risk, and why take that risk when the Mainland system has already proven it can.

If HK's system was followed, there would have been no poverty in the first place. Look at S Korea's or Japan's astonishing rise since the 50s, and India's and China's pathetic poverty in those days. China later raised millions out of poverty only because they brought their economic model closer to what HK followed from way back.

 

[Aepsilons]

If you're asking for my personal opinion as a Hong Konger, I never liked the "One country two systems" policy.

I have always advocated "One country one system".

There is so much corruption in Hong Kong, I want the Mainland government to start performing clean-up duty on all the corrupt local politicians.

Did you know, in our last HK elections, two out of three candidates for Chief Executive were openly corrupt?

Unfortunately, I'll have to wait until the "One country two systems" policy expires.

But, that does not change the fact that Hong Kong is probably one of the largest importers of Chinese exports. They (mainland) have to respect your city's rights and view, since HK is a major driver of mainland's economy.

 

[IND151]

We already proved this, when we seized the Scarborough shoal in 2012, and America didn't do anything to stop it, despite them having a "mutual defense treaty" with the Philippines.

As for a military first strike in the SCS, that is not a good idea. If we strike first, that will give the USA a chance to try and sanction us.

Whereas if Vietnam/Philippines strikes first, we will be able to strike back massively without worrying about sanctions.

Currently, we are gaining the most from the status quo, we have the fastest rate of economic development among all the major players.

And we are currently drilling for oil near the Xisha islands. The status quo benefits us, those who are unhappy with the oil rig are the ones who would be motivated to make the first strike.

I believe US will intervene in such scenario; to which extent, is the question.

If Vietnam and Philippines go to war against China, US will try to put pressure on China. It is foolish to think that US will sit idle.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

If HK's system was followed, there would have been no poverty in the first place. Look at S Korea's or Japan's astonishing rise since the 50s, and India's and China's pathetic poverty in those days. China later raised millions out of poverty only because they brought their economic model closer to what HK followed from way back.

That is possible, maybe even likely. But we'll never know if that would have happened in practice, 7 million is a lot easier than 1.3 billion.

What I know is that I like the Mainland's economic model now, and that it has already proven itself in lifting Chinese people out of poverty on a mass scale.

Anyway, the Xi-Li Administration are pushing insanely hard for some truly massive economic reforms over the next few years.

Hopefully we will get a "best of both worlds" situation. Hopefully.

 

[janon]

That is possible, maybe even likely. But we'll never know if that would have happened in practice, 7 million is a lot easier than 1.3 billion.

What I know is that I like the Mainland's economic model now, and that it has already proven itself in lifting Chinese people out of poverty on a mass scale.

Anyway, the Xi-Li Administration are pushing insanely hard for some truly massive economic reforms over the next few years.

Hopefully we will get a "best of both worlds" situation. Hopefully.

See, that's my point. Whenever Chinese (or for that matter, even Indian) leaders talk about economic reforms, they are asking for bringing the system closer to the free market, low regulations model prevalent in HK. World history (and common sense) tells us that HK's system can bring more prosperity to people than whatever India and China used to follow, or even follow now.

And population should only work in our favour, because with a large population, many things are possible that just ain't possible for a Singapore or even a Japan. (Bigger consumption based economy, bigger domestic market, better military strength...)

The USA has a massive population (third largest in the world), and they live in prosperity, following pretty much the same economic system that HK does. (Free markets, low regulations, low central or govt command and control etc.)

If sensible economic policies are followed, we could prosper, despite our large populations. That is why I have high hopes for India and China over the next few decades. In India's case, it remains to be seen whether the new govt will bring further much needed economic reforms and liberalization. All BJP supporters seem to think they will.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

But, that does not change the fact that Hong Kong is probably one of the largest importers of Chinese exports. They (mainland) have to respect your city's rights and view, since HK is a major driver of mainland's economy.

I think they do respect my rights and my views as a Hong Konger.

The national leadership especially.

Or at least it seems that way to me?

Maybe it's because their politics are more unified, but I have always considered the Beijing government more trustworthy, compared to my own squabbling HK local government.

See, that's my point. Whenever Chinese (or for that matter, even Indian) leaders talk about economic reforms, they are asking for bringing the system closer to the free market, low regulations model prevalent in HK. World history (and common sense) tells us that HK's system can bring more prosperity to people than whatever India and China used to follow, or even follow now.

And population should only work in our favour, because with a large population, many things are possible that just ain't possible for a Singapore or even a Japan. (Bigger consumption based economy, bigger domestic market, better military strength...)

The USA has a massive population (third largest in the world), and they live in prosperity, following pretty much the same economic system that HK does. (Free markets, low regulations, low central or govt command and control etc.)

If sensible economic policies are followed, we could prosper, despite our large populations. That is why I have high hopes for India and China over the next few decades. In India's case, it remains to be seen whether the new govt will bring further much needed economic reforms and liberalization. All BJP supporters seem to think they will.

I agree, the big Chinese economic reforms that have been announced, are about liberalizing the interest rates, currency reform and capital account reform. Which will be implemented within the next few years.

The HK model and the Mainland model do seem to be converging, on the Mainland at least.

Hopefully they will manage to do it in a much more controlled way than we did it, and leave less room for corruption and inefficiency.

 

[Aepsilons]

I believe US will intervene in such scenario to which extent, is the question.

If Vietnam and Philippines go to war against China, US will try to put pressure on China. It is foolish to think that US will sit ideal.

Vietnam and the Philippines cannot go to war with China. It is in neither of their national interests to engage the PRC militarily. And we abscond such provocations; and encourage diplomatic resolution while maintaining territorial patrol and resolve. War brings no solution to either party.

 

[NiceGuy]

Vietnam and the Philippines cannot go to war with China. It is in neither of their national interests to engage the PRC militarily. And we abscond such provocations; and encourage diplomatic resolution while maintaining territorial patrol and resolve. War brings no solution to either party.

If China fire the first shot to VN ships, then war will happen. Why can not we ?? We even defeated enemies that far stronger than China

 

[Carlosa]

Some Chinese people are so drunk with their so called economic success and their expectation that they will be the next superpower that they forget that right now, China is not the superpower, USA is the superpower. Tomorrow? Who cares about tomorrow? You can get killed today, in which case tomorrow will never come for you.

China is behaving much like Japan before WW2; right now US is quite averse to conflict with China, they are not being trigger happy, they just let China dig itself into the hole. Obama is well known for not wanting to take risks or enter into wars, they are not looking for conflict.

It was much the same way before WW2, at that time the american people was overwhelming pacifist and that tied the hands of the government, but Japan pushed........... and we all know what happened next and how it ended up for Japan. China is following the same steps, push and provoke USA at your own peril.

I think Chinese people better reflect on that before its too late.

 

[Aepsilons]

If China fire the first shot to VN ships, then war will happen. Why can not we ?? We even defeated enemies that far stronger than China

I have no doubt of Vietnam's military prowess, and her military history. But it is not to your country's interest to make war now. Military action is only a last resort, my friend, you must allow diplomacy and communication work out.

 

[William Hung]

We already proved this, when we seized the Scarborough shoal in 2012, and America didn't do anything to stop it, despite them having a "mutual defense treaty" with the Philippines.

Well that was true somewhat, but the action in the Scarborough shoal was still soft. China only sent coast guards and CMS to patrol the area. The Phil/Viet/Japanese didn't backed down, one went to court, one invite the indians to drill on disputed area and the last tried to change their pacifist constitution. The action in the Scarborough shoal wasn't strong enough for them to question the commitment of the US. Hence, the decision to drill.

As for a military first strike in the SCS, that is not a good idea. If we strike first, that will give the USA a chance to try and sanction us.

Whereas if Vietnam/Philippines strikes first, we will be able to strike back massively without worrying about sanctions.

Ofcourse ideally VN would make the first strike and China can strike back without the threat of any sanction or condemnation. But it doesn't look like that's going to happen. VN have decided to wage a PR war and play the victim.

Suppose China fires the first shot. Sanctioning China is alot more harder than you may think. Sure the US would love to sanction and isolate China, but that santion is also going to hurt them and Europe. China is not Russia where its trade relationship with the world is primarily through oil and gas. The US and Europe can sanction Russia and don't have to worry about their oil or gas supply. On the other hand, can western companies and corporations survive if China is sanctioned? yes, but they are going to get hit hard. This is not going to be desirable when they've only just recovered from the financial crisis.

When the western economy recovers stronger and other emerging countries such as Brazil, Mexico and India plays a more significant role in the manufacuting chain and have more middle class consumers, then a sanction against China at that time would be an easier decision than it is now. This is one reason why I think a military strike should be now rather than a lot later.

But yes, there is still a risk of a sanction now. As long as no civilians are killed and only military facilities targeted, the risk of a sanction is lower now than later on.

Currently, we are gaining the most from the status quo, we have the fastest rate of economic development among all the major players.

And we are currently drilling for oil near the Xisha islands. The status quo benefits us, those who are unhappy with the oil rig are the ones who would be motivated to make the first strike.

There are no oil or gas around the Xisha islands. CNOOC officials have spoken about this. The rig operation is political. All the oil and gas in down further south and VN malaysia and Brunei is already drilling there. Anyway, this is not primarily about oil, its about the strategic location of the SCS that needs to be secured to complete the string of pearls.

 

[NiceGuy]

I have no doubt of Vietnam's military prowess, and her military history. But it is not to your country's interest to make war now. Military action is only a last resort, my friend, you must allow diplomacy and communication work out.

We can not take back our lost islands from China just by lip services. War will happen soon or later, and the whole East Asia-South east Asia will get in big trouble when war between China-VN happen in SCS(east sea) coz No ship can pass through the war zone , no merchants ships from Middle east and Africa can reach to China's land.

This war will drag the economy of all East Asia-South east Asia nations back to stone age , and it will make China economy collapse too . When China economy collapse, then thats the time to take back our lost islands from China

 

[AKIRAKUMA]

I think i've fallen in Love. She's so beautiful...!

hahaha she's 33? i thought she's 23 or 21!!! beautiful zhonguoren...

She is a cartoonist,I like her paintings,too.Japanese girls are very nice, I think Takizawa Rola ~

 

[Aepsilons]

She is a cartoonist,I like her paintings,too.Japanese girls are very nice, I think Takizawa Rola ~

he he he, beautiful girl, indeed. Very pink lips...!

 

[xesy]

If China fire the first shot to VN ships, then war will happen. Why can not we ?? We even defeated enemies that far stronger than China

Nihonjin1051 is right. If China were to fire the first shot, the best we could do is actually move our navy there and surround the firing ship. If the ship keeps firing, then we can sink it and both Vietnam and China go back to quarelling. If the ship tried to run away, then we could immobilize them, capture the ship sailors and use them as chips to negotiate with China. Either way we should avoid war. Remember Vietnam should never be the one who go around and start war.