China Needs to Make a Military Strike Now - My Personal Assessment

[Chinese-Dragon]

Why don't you share profits with VietNam? That might improve relations.

They are currently not interested in any kind of sharing agreement.

Maybe they will change their mind later.

 

[NiceGuy]

We aren't invading anyone.

We are the ones benefitting most from the status quo. We are adding more to our economy every year than anyone else on Earth.

It's up to those who are not satisfied with the status quo, to make the first strike. Until then, we'll keep drilling.

Good, we like the status quo too, US-Russia-India-Japan-France-SK r helping VN to get rich now, and if we make more trouble with China, US may transfer more technology to us .

We r happy to get rich when siting and watch China economy falling day by day

so, i actually showed this thread to my room mate(who's Chinese), and we both laughed.
.

Yeah, u can laugh more bcz its still not happen yet, but it surely will happen to China coz VN -Phil will get stronger and we will take a revenge to China .

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Good, we like the status quo too, US-Russia-India-Japan-France-SK r helping VN to get rich now, and if we make more trouble with China, US may transfer more technology to us .

We r happy to get rich when siting and watch China economy falling day by day

You know we add a trillion dollars to our GDP every single year. I don't think it's possible for you to catch up.

Even my small city alone (Hong Kong) has double the GDP of Vietnam, you guys still have a long way to go.

 

[dlclong]

Go china!
前进 中国

 

[NiceGuy]

You know we add a trillion dollars to our GDP every single year. I don't think it's possible for you to catch up.

Even my small city alone (Hong Kong) has double the GDP of Vietnam, you guys still have a long way to go.

Despite of all effort China make, ur export in Q1 still tumbling badly, and for an export oriented country like u, export tumbling is serious disater

 

[Genesis]

so, i actually showed this thread to my room mate(who's Chinese), and we both laughed.



Why don't you share profits with VietNam? That might improve relations.

The SCS is not so simple as oil, sovereignty and such, there's a lot of things that needs to be taken into consideration.

For example, did it ever occur to you that China also needs a reason to justify a massively expanding fleet and capabilities? Even the old dynasties needs to justify its actions, the same is more so today.

Did it ever occur to you that China wants to stir the pot? We want to see who can do what, and is willing to do what, and who's involved. As of today China is in no real danger of going into war. But the situation is much clearer today than say some time ago.


Did it ever occur to you that drilling for oil may not go as smoothly as some may have predicted? Why open a can of worms when you don't have to?


Right now ASEAN is divided, not all fear China, not all wants a weak China, to rearrange the landscape takes time. Without going into battle, we are letting ASEAN + US + Japan + Korea seeing how difficult it is to actually unite. Everyone has an agenda. Alliances never work, if it comes down to it, SCS is not as important, ASEAN + US actually has more problems with each other than with China, the problem with China is rivalry, rivalry can become friendship in an instant.

What's brewing in ASEAN is centuries of history.

The US will not be kicked out of Asia by China, but by her allies. This can't happen if we don't stir the pot.

 

[Aepsilons]

You know we add a trillion dollars to our GDP every single year. I don't think it's possible for you to catch up.

Even my small city alone (Hong Kong) has double the GDP of Vietnam, you guys still have a long way to go.

OT: What's your view on the HK government voting for more independent decisions and the PRC reigning them in?

 

[gambit]

I mentioned before that the events occuring in the SCS is playing into the hands of the US. If the current event just keep on going as it is, China will loose in the long run.........unless they make a military strike now and capture all the islands in the spratly. Although a military conflict is unlikely, I still think it is the best option for China now. Here are my assessments:

The rig operation was a calculated move. Here are the pros (or the intended pros of the move) of the move:

-The rig was moved there to play a game of Chicken with the US. China want to show that the US asian pivot and commitment is fake. US can only pay lip service to their friends but aren't willing to do anything more. China correctly predicted this.

-This will send a message to Japan, VN and Phil to stop being hawkish because US is not going to support you like they said they would.

-In theory, this should make Vietnam less anti-Chinese and start negotiating. It also discourage Vietnam (or the Philippine) to unilaterally explore for oil/gas or invite a third party into fields within the 9-dash line. If Vietnam (or the Phil) accuse China of being aggressive and destabilizing the SCS by drilling in disputed area, China can also say the same in the future if Vietnam drills within the 9-dash line. Therefore, the world will see that Vietnam (or the Phil) is having double standard.

However, this is what is really going on and the cons of the rig operation:

-It is now a PR (public relation) battle between Vietnam/Phil and China. China is loosing. It is clear that the US is working overtime to give China a bad image (not just in the SCS, but also in the G7 and trade such as the hacking accusations) .Most western media paints China as the agressor in the SCS. CCP are now aware of this and trying to (hopelessly) rectify it in the UN.

-Japan has become more militarized. Abe succeeded in modifying the arms export ban. With the blessing of the US, Japan nominated itself to become a military leader in Asia and Phil/Vietnam are happy to accept this. CCP did not foresee this 5-6 years ago.

-Philippines is also becoming militarized. They no longer mind spending money on military arms.

-Vietnam becomes more hardened and stubborn. Instead of becoming less anti-Chinese and start negotiating, they've become even more pro-US and pro-Japan.

-Vietnamese civilian is quite unruly and extremely anti-Chinese. The country is quite unstabe and prone to a colour revolution.

-So when August come and the rig goes home, nothing will be achieved. China will gain no new island or territory. Her image will take a bit hit. If the rig stay longer, her image will even be more damaged and Phil/Viet will be more hardened.

-The US will be welcomed back to Asia more than ever by the Phil and VN. VCP will become very pro-US or the country may even have a colour revolution. With a pro-US government and military support from the US, it will even be harder to take back the VN-occupied Island in the SCS.

-With a US-backed Phil and VN who occupies most of the islands, the SCS can be a choke point for China. This is what the asian pivot is all about and why I think the events is playing into the hand of the US. The SCS can now become one more tool for the US to bring down China. It can choke China or it can be used to trigger an arms conflict between China and VN/Phil in the future or it can be used to control Japan and S.Korea should they want to be more independent from the US (SCS is also the main trading route and lifeline for Japan/S.Korea). All of this is not good for the stability and growth of China.

If you take all this into account, the best option for China is to make a quick and effective military strike against Vietnam to take back all the occupied Islands, destroy their airforce and naval assests and facilities. No need to occupy or enter their country. Here are the reasons why this is the best option and needs to happen now:

-this post is getting too long and I need to go.

Correct...China should attack Viet Nam now to prove to Asia that China have nothing but 'peaceful rise' in mind.

 

[NiceGuy]

They are currently not interested in any kind of sharing agreement.

Maybe they will change their mind later.

No, we never change, No sharing , dude.

U will be kicked out of VN's territory like Mongol-Manchus-French colony- Imperial US

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

OT: What's your view on the HK government voting for more independent decisions and the PRC reigning them in?

If you're asking for my personal opinion as a Hong Konger, I never liked the "One country two systems" policy.

I have always advocated "One country one system".

There is so much corruption in Hong Kong, I want the Mainland government to start performing clean-up duty on all the corrupt local politicians.

Did you know, in our last HK elections, two out of three candidates for Chief Executive were openly corrupt?

Unfortunately, I'll have to wait until the "One country two systems" policy expires.

 

[NiceGuy]

If you're asking for my personal opinion as a Hong Konger, I never liked the "One country two systems" policy.

I have always advocated "One country one system".

There is so much corruption in Hong Kong, I want the Mainland government to start performing clean-up duty on all the corrupt local politicians.

Did you know, in our last HK elections, two out of three candidates for Chief Executive were openly corrupt?

Unfortunately, I'll have to wait until the "One country two systems" policy expires.

Do u know why Chinese professor calls Hong Kong people r 'dogs' of the West ?? Bcz its True

But ur Govt. needs money from HKer, thats why it must be "One country two systems"

 

[janon]

If you're asking for my personal opinion as a Hong Konger, I never liked the "One country two systems" policy.

I have always advocated "One country one system".

There is so much corruption in Hong Kong, I want the Mainland government to start performing clean-up duty on all the corrupt local politicians.

Did you know, in our last HK elections, two out of three candidates for Chief Executive were openly corrupt?

Unfortunately, I'll have to wait until the "One country two systems" policy expires.

Hong Kong's system has brought massive prosperity to itself, has it not? The average income in HK is several times that of mainland China. In fact, HK's per capita GDP is number 6 in the world, right below US. China as a whole ranks number 93. So if you want a single system, why not go for the system that has brought more prosperity for people?

(On another thread earlier today, you told me that that is the only factor that an average person cares about.)

 

[Pinoy]

I mentioned before that the events occuring in the SCS is playing into the hands of the US. If the current event just keep on going as it is, China will loose in the long run.........unless they make a military strike now and capture all the islands in the spratly. Although a military conflict is unlikely, I still think it is the best option for China now. Here are my assessments:

The rig operation was a calculated move. Here are the pros (or the intended pros of the move) of the move:

-The rig was moved there to play a game of Chicken with the US. China want to show that the US asian pivot and commitment is fake. US can only pay lip service to their friends but aren't willing to do anything more. China correctly predicted this.

-This will send a message to Japan, VN and Phil to stop being hawkish because US is not going to support you like they said they would.

-In theory, this should make Vietnam less anti-Chinese and start negotiating. It also discourage Vietnam (or the Philippine) to unilaterally explore for oil/gas or invite a third party into fields within the 9-dash line. If Vietnam (or the Phil) accuse China of being aggressive and destabilizing the SCS by drilling in disputed area, China can also say the same in the future if Vietnam drills within the 9-dash line. Therefore, the world will see that Vietnam (or the Phil) is having double standard.

However, this is what is really going on and the cons of the rig operation:

-It is now a PR (public relation) battle between Vietnam/Phil and China. China is loosing. It is clear that the US is working overtime to give China a bad image (not just in the SCS, but also in the G7 and trade such as the hacking accusations) .Most western media paints China as the agressor in the SCS. CCP are now aware of this and trying to (hopelessly) rectify it in the UN.

-Japan has become more militarized. Abe succeeded in modifying the arms export ban. With the blessing of the US, Japan nominated itself to become a military leader in Asia and Phil/Vietnam are happy to accept this. CCP did not foresee this 5-6 years ago.

-Philippines is also becoming militarized. They no longer mind spending money on military arms.

-Vietnam becomes more hardened and stubborn. Instead of becoming less anti-Chinese and start negotiating, they've become even more pro-US and pro-Japan.

-Vietnamese civilian is quite unruly and extremely anti-Chinese. The country is quite unstabe and prone to a colour revolution.

-So when August come and the rig goes home, nothing will be achieved. China will gain no new island or territory. Her image will take a bit hit. If the rig stay longer, her image will even be more damaged and Phil/Viet will be more hardened.

-The US will be welcomed back to Asia more than ever by the Phil and VN. VCP will become very pro-US or the country may even have a colour revolution. With a pro-US government and military support from the US, it will even be harder to take back the VN-occupied Island in the SCS.

-With a US-backed Phil and VN who occupies most of the islands, the SCS can be a choke point for China. This is what the asian pivot is all about and why I think the events is playing into the hand of the US. The SCS can now become one more tool for the US to bring down China. It can choke China or it can be used to trigger an arms conflict between China and VN/Phil in the future or it can be used to control Japan and S.Korea should they want to be more independent from the US (SCS is also the main trading route and lifeline for Japan/S.Korea). All of this is not good for the stability and growth of China.

If you take all this into account, the best option for China is to make a quick and effective military strike against Vietnam to take back all the occupied Islands, destroy their airforce and naval assests and facilities. No need to occupy or enter their country. Here are the reasons why this is the best option and needs to happen now:

-this post is getting too long and I need to go.

Well, I hope the Chinese are satisfied now. Given the psychotic behavior of our big bully neighbor that ratchets up its threats, what do you think the best way to go ? China has pushed all the neighbors around in the area, now they see the US reasserting itself into the region. And this time the US is overwhelmingly welcomed back. China has only itself to blame for this predicament. Your bullying has fully driven our country back into the American embrace. Pretty sure, the next Philippine President will focus on investing heavily in military hardware. We will not let you harass our future generations. We may be being harassed for now but someday somehow, Filipinos will rise up soon, since our economy is also doing very good.

We already proved this, when we seized the Scarborough shoal in 2012, and America didn't do anything to stop it, despite them having a "mutual defense treaty" with the Philippines.

As for a military first strike in the SCS, that is not a good idea. If we strike first, that will give the USA a chance to try and sanction us.

Whereas if Vietnam/Philippines strikes first, we will be able to strike back massively without worrying about sanctions.

Currently, we are gaining the most from the status quo, we have the fastest rate of economic development among all the major players.

And we are currently drilling for oil near the Xisha islands. The status quo benefits us, those who are unhappy with the oil rig are the ones who would be motivated to make the first strike.

The last time I checked, we are not yet under attack, so there is no "defense" needed, we are actually waiting for your first shot. The US can send troops if undisputed territories will be attacked. By virtue of the MDT, an attack on the Philippines will be considered an attack on the US. And the President can send troops to foreign soil if the US was attacked up to 90 days without the blessing of the Congress.

And as far as I know, the Philippines suggested to China that they both leave Scarborough to ease the tension, China agreed. As a gesture of good faith, we left first, but China has other plans. After we left Scarborough China remained, they then broadcast through their propaganda network that Philippines left Scarborough, hinting that Philippines abandoned their claim. So went back to Scarborough, China tried to scare away our small ships but our ships remained. China then sent word that they are ready to leave Scarborough if we leave first, we agreed. We again left Scarborough and broadcast that it was due to bad weather.China hasn't left Scarborough up to now, this a reflection that China can never be trusted. You have no word of honour. You appreciate the pull out of our ships. That leaves you sole control of the area. But make no mistake, our withdrawal doesn't actually change the FACT that we own the shoal and we believe it is part of our territory, no matter how much your nine dots claim wish as yours. And since we are a peaceful country, we want to end this dispute peacefully, after exhausting all administrative remedies, the next thing to do through arbitral court which is UNCLOS, the perfect place to settle disputes for all law abiding nations. We have a solid legal ground and we seek you to clarify your claims. One that is on the side of truth should not be afraid of it but one on the side of evil is always afraid of the truth. After all, the truth will always prevail in the end.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Hong Kong's system has brought massive prosperity to itself, has it not? The average income in HK is several times that of mainland China. In fact, HK's per capita GDP is number 6 in the world, right below US. China as a whole ranks number 93. So if you want a single system, why not go for the system that has brought more prosperity for people?

(On another thread earlier today, you told me that that is the only factor that an average person cares about.)

It's all about the momentum.

In the earlier decades in Hong Kong, we had a system similar to the one now in the Mainland, or Singapore.

Now it is different. Hong Kong is already developed, and we lost our momentum.

What I see in the Mainland now is the same energy which once built Hong Kong, just look at Shanghai to see an example.

In fact, HK's per capita GDP is number 6 in the world, right below US. China as a whole ranks number 93. So if you want a single system, why not go for the system that has brought more prosperity for people?

HK has 7 million Chinese people, the Mainland has over a billion. The Mainland system is bringing more prosperity to more Chinese people.

The Mainland's GDP is $9.3 trillion, and still a developing country, whereas the GDP of Hong Kong is less than even Shanghai alone.

The Mainland government has brought what, 800 million people out of poverty? More than any other country in the history of the world.

Could the current HK system do the same thing? That would be a huge risk, and why take that risk when the Mainland system has already proven it can.

 

[OCguy]

I think OP should prove his commitment and volunteer for the front line.