China Must Reform or Die.

[huzihaidao12]

I was actually not talking about privatization specifically when I said



I was thinking about diversifying manufacture and reducing export dependence. The world has too much excess production capacity in my opinion.

I do not have the answer. However, all the way in China are "crossing the river by feeling the stones", a new situation to find new ways, in fact, China's domestic demand is a serious underestimate, and growing rapidly. At the same time, China's great efforts to develop foreign markets (free trade zone in Southeast Asia, Africa, and even Europe, the United States), overcapacity is not a solution really can not see the prospects, so, 不要自乱阵脚。

 

[huzihaidao12]

I can say it any damm way I please, they call it freedom of speech.

Yes, freedom of speech, I think it was a joke for what you said.

 

[Nomenclature]

(btw if you don't mind, are you older or younger than that generation?)

I'm younger than that generation.

At least domestic people against privatization, I mean the people, not the number of interest groups. If privatization is likely to cause confusion, is not conducive to China's development. The actual situation in China is getting better, all, some things are actually just as news of a more open and exposed the more. The actual situation is getting better. Really needed is two, public opinion and the legal system, the other can be developed in China for at least another 20 years, and then look at need.

Yeah I think juridical reform is the most urgent task. Building a functioning legal system needs a huge number of qualified lawyers and judges and China is plainly not producing enough of them.

Given the complete mess that is the current judicial system, one can hardly expect bright young man and woman to study law and become judges and lawyers. If we do not begin legal reform now, we'll still have this shortfall of qualified legal professionals ten years, twenty years down the track.

But I do not think an independent juridical system or a free press will thrive without at least some political reform at local level.

 

[Nomenclature]

I do not have the answer. However, all the way in China are "crossing the river by feeling the stones", a new situation to find new ways, in fact, China's domestic demand is a serious underestimate, and growing rapidly. At the same time, China's great efforts to develop foreign markets (free trade zone in Southeast Asia, Africa, and even Europe, the United States), overcapacity is not a solution really can not see the prospects, so, 不要自乱阵脚。

Reforms are needed in the domestic capital market. It's ridiculous all China's successful Internet companies are listed aboard or in Hong Kong.

Also local protectionism has to stop. There are too many flowers blooming in China. Every city wants its own auto industry. Every town want its own semiconductor industry. No country other than China has more than 100 car makers and more than 500 fabless semiconductor design houses scattered across the country. I don't want China to go down the road of Taiwan, having tons of medium and small companies that's unable to build strong brands like the South Koreans did.

 

[CAPTAIN AMERICA]

Yes, freedom of speech, I think it was a joke for what you said.

more just teaseing some of the Chinese Fan Boys a little....but I think this is incredible that a Chinese that is part of the system would and could come out with this kind of statement and not be shot or put in an insane asylum or re-education camp. The first step in solving a problem is recognizing that you have a problem.

My hopes for the Chinese people just went up several 100 percent, if all this is to be belived.

China does not have to follow the road of Russia, they can still do it their way. China must be changing much more then I gave them credit for.

They should make Lt General Liu president.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Ignore Captain America, he is trolling again.

On topic: Some degree of reform is necessary in the long-term, I think we all knew that since the beginning.

However an "immediate overhaul" of the entire system could have dangerous consequences.

Reform must be done slowly if we are to maintain stability.

 

[chauism]

As the newly promoted Political Commissar (PC) of the PLA's National Defense University, (a rank just one level shy from the CMC). Lt General Liu is once again delivering his provocative view on the same theme since his Chengdu Air Force days -- embracing US-style democracy or accept a Soviet-style collapse.

Lt General Liu's free airing of provocative views on both foreign and domestic issues, especially his calls for political reform and the freedom of expression, is unprecedented. Thus far, his views not only strengthen his career but also allowed him to became one of the most covered personalities by the PLA-watching community in the West. He was a visiting scholar at Stanford University from 1986 to 1987, a fact might help to explain his "Pro-Western" view.

In addition of being the PC for the National Defense University, Lt General Liu is also serving as a member of the CCP's Central Commission for Disciplinary Inspection, China's top anti-graft watchdog.




What do you guys make of this?

This actually cleared couple things.

First, Chinese government or the party is not scared of the concept of democracy. The real debate is when and how much of it should be implemented when the timing is right.

Second, the party know the internal problems that has tremendous social cost from the current system, and the reform is needed to address those problem.

Third, freedom of speech does exist in China to certain degree.

 

[chauism]

more just teaseing some of the Chinese Fan Boys a little....but I think this is incredible that a Chinese that is part of the system would and could come out with this kind of statement and not be shot or put in an insane asylum or re-education camp. The first step in solving a problem is recognizing that you have a problem.

My hopes for the Chinese people just went up several 100 percent, if all this is to be belived.

China does not have to follow the road of Russia, they can still do it their way. China must be changing much more then I gave them credit for.

They should make Lt General Liu president.

Apart from his view on democracy, he also has a very militaristic view from his previous books. In his view, the political reform is to strength the nation both for its people and military. The end game is for China to confront US whether it is with a carrot or a stick. His view on the relationship of Japan is even more provocative and aggressive. His way of thinking is more in tune with what the leaders in the west thinks due to his education background.

If he indeed become the leader of China, he might succeed in his reform and China will become more powerful due to those reforms. Then what the world will see is a beast of hegemony that will dwarf what US is today in every way possible.

The idea that a democratic China will be more friendly towards the west is fantasy and will always remain so. So my question is whether the world is prepare for a democratic China?

 

[CAPTAIN AMERICA]

Ignore Captain America, he is trolling again.

On topic: Some degree of reform is necessary in the long-term, I think we all knew that since the beginning.

However an "immediate overhaul" of the entire system could have dangerous consequences.

Reform must be done slowly if we are to maintain stability.

If I recall right thats the same thing the USSR said, we have to do this slowly if we are to maintain stability. Evidently the citizens of the USSR did not see it that way. When things start to change they take on a life of thieir own, on a down hill course and there is little in the way of brakes.

 

[lcloo]

China must not blindly reform following western model, Russian experience is a lesson that must be avoided. I agree with reform but it must be done on a steady rate, one that does not cause destructive damages politically and economically.

Politically I mean no bloody clashes for fighting over idealogy, and economically trying to avoid building larges disparity between the rich and the poor.

The most urgent refor should be on corruption in both public and private sectors, and abuse of power by local government officials. An China badly needed an effective anti-corruption agency.

The one party government is doing well for the time, multi party political scenario will come but not now, the common people are busy trying to make money and improve their living standard and happy as it is at this moment.

The interest group has minimum to nil influence on the people. Until the time when people have earned enough money, food on table and own shelter, then they will naturally turn to politics.

The real scence in China now, people don't care about politics, my grass root Chinese friend don't even know who is Premier Wen or President Hu, they simply do not have interest.

 

[TorontoNoctis]

If I recall right thats the same thing the USSR said, we have to do this slowly if we are to maintain stability. Evidently the citizens of the USSR did not see it that way. When things start to change they take on a life of thieir own, on a down hill course and there is little in the way of brakes.

Many do now. Talk to any Russian who lived through the "lost decade" and they will tell you it was hell. Ambulances not answering emergency calls unless you paid first, supermarket shelves completely bare and the need to carry a firearm everywhere to avoid the mafia. And it is only a half truth when you say USSR citizens supported the downfall of the USSR. Most of the downfall was orchestrated by rich fat cats, oligarchs who proceeded to make Boris Yeltsin their puppet. For example one oligarch spread lies about party members having sex with prostitutes with fake video evidence. It took Putin to finally put them in their place. If it wasn't for Putin, these oligarchs would have stripped Russia dry.

It will be a hundred times worse if democracy comes to China too early. The difference between China and Russia is the Chinese government won't be shy about putting a bullet into oligarch's brains if they try what they did in China like Russia.

 

[CAPTAIN AMERICA]

Apart from his view on democracy, he also has a very militaristic view from his previous books. In his view, the political reform is to strength the nation both for its people and military. The end game is for China to confront US whether it is with a carrot or a stick. His view on the relationship of Japan is even more provocative and aggressive. His way of thinking is more in tune with what the leaders in the west thinks due to his education background.

If he indeed become the leader of China, he might succeed in his reform and China will become more powerful due to those reforms. Then what the world will see is a beast of hegemony that will dwarf what US is today in every way possible.

The idea that a democratic China will be more friendly towards the west is fantasy and will always remain so. So my question is whether the world is prepare for a democratic China?

Thats fine the USA needs a strong enemy if we are not to become weak, though true democracys usually get along pretty good, but if China wants a war, cold or hot, I am sure that the USA will oblige them.

But I think the chances of war will lessen, China's hope right now
is if they have an enemy it will make the people pull togather more. An age old trick of totalitarian government goverments run by a dictators.

You might want to refer to Quincy Wright, and his monumental A Study of War:[26]

"To sum up, it appears that absolutist states with geographically and functionally centralized governments under autocratic leadership are likely to be most belligerent, while constitutional states with geographically and functionally federalized governments under democratic leadership are likely to be most peaceful."
DEMOCRACY AND WAR

 

[conworldus]

In all fairness I think in China there is actually more freedom than the USA. True that the USA has a bit more freedom of political speech ("Note: only political speed, otherwise they throw you in jail for being a terrorist). In China, you are allowed to do more things without getting monitored all the time. Plus, in China the government is lenient on financial issues. You don't have a tax authority breathing down your neck unless you are operating a large business. In the US they look into every single number in your bank account to make sure that you pay every cent.

I lived in the U.S for many years and this is my honest opinion.

 

[Solomon2]

"What do you guys make of this?"

Just going by my brief and inadequate study of Chinese history, China doesn't need democracy if it is willing to subject itself to periodic violent revolutions from within or conquests from without.

''The American system is said to be 'designed by genius and for the operation of the stupid'.

He sure got that right. I would add that there may be no finer moments in America than when the "geniuses" in office yield, in accordance with the will of the voters, their power to the "stupid". (A test which Pakistan has failed on multiple occasions.)

''A bad system makes a good person behave badly while a good system makes a bad person behave well. Democracy is the most urgent thing, without it there can be no sustainable rise.''

Compare this insight with that from one of America's most effective statesmen, Chester Bowles, an advertising executive who was Chief of the Office of Price Administration during WWII:

[Bowles said] he found that 2 to 3 percent of the American people were inherently dishonest and would cheat on any OPA rule, 20 percent would obey the rules regardless of what anyone else did, and the other 75 percent were willing to be honest but not willing to be suckers if they thought they were being deceived by the bureaucrats.

(Washington Goes to War, David Brinkley, p.136.)

he argues that China will never have strategic reach by relying on wealth alone. ''A nation that is mindful only of the power of money is a backward and stupid nation,''

Something I learned from studying Chinese history. The Mongols conquered the much richer nation-state of southeast China because its ruler was both benevolent and superstitious.

General Liu inverts the lesson that Chinese politicians have traditionally drawn from the collapse of the Soviet Union - that it was caused by too much political reform - by arguing that reform arrived too late.

Also correct; in the USSR political collapse followed economic collapse. If the USSR had really reformed in the late 50s or early 60s - if its political elite had truly embraced Solzhenitsyn, Sahkarov, and Grossman and been willing to yield power rather than reverting to repression - then the USSR would have been far stronger, for the political abuses and extremes that led to total economic failure would not have happened.

General Liu returned to the subject of Tiananmen in his Phoenix article, saying ''a nationwide riot'' was caused by the incompatibility of traditional power structures with reform.

That's very different from one very smart Chinese I know who traveled to America after Tiananmen and told me, "I was in Beijing at the time, and nothing happened there!"

 

[CAPTAIN AMERICA]

In all fairness I think in China there is actually more freedom than the USA. True that the USA has a bit more freedom of political speech ("Note: only political speed, otherwise they throw you in jail for being a terrorist). In China, you are allowed to do more things without getting monitored all the time. Plus, in China the government is lenient on financial issues. You don't have a tax authority breathing down your neck unless you are operating a large business. In the US they look into every single number in your bank account to make sure that you pay every cent.

I lived in the U.S for many years and this is my honest opinion.

In the USA you are suppose to pay every cent, if you dont some one else has too.