China is the fulcrum of Pakistan's National Security Policy

[TheSolution]

frankly most Indians don't even understand the Indian obsession in Pakistan.
Modi is a convenient scapegoat now but he came into power in 2016 , the Congress was in power for most of the other 75 years. All our conflicts and bad blood were under the liberal Congress rule.
Pragmatically China would be stupid not to use the indo pak animosity to advance its strategic goals , which are mostly economic.
I feel the recent friction between China and India is a gambit to divert India from its economic goals and Pakistan ofcourse is a ever ready participant.
But in the process Pakistan is feeling the blowback both from the west and India.
How a country can allow its own interests to be so easily compromised is mystifying ?

What blowback from India? The situation with India would remain as it is regardless of anything, your hostility is no secret and is an inherent issue.

Also Pakistan maintains a neutral policy between China and the West.

But it's clear what side the West leans towards due to their threat perception of China.

Pakistan will not become hostile to China or choose sides, that's something you simply cannot expect.

 

[MH.Yang]

A very good discussion.
Only thing I would add is that extreme positions are not needed.
Pakistan doesn't have to hate the west to prove its loyalty to the Chinese.
Even the Chinese understand the attraction the west ,with its standard of living has for any developing country.
The Pakistan governments understood this well and maintained ok relations with both.
Though now I am not too sure where this government is headed.
Ofcourse as a Indian I would prefer that so much energy and attention of 2 countries was not focused on us , but that's something we can't control, can only react to it.


you were doing well but then you slyly inserted a imaginary India usa split. Carry on.

The economic base determines the superstructure. This is why countries such as Pakistan cannot live without USA, which is Pakistan's largest exporter. This is also why foreign Pakistanis generally tend to USA, their personal interests are tied to the U.S. economy. This is also the reason why Germany, Hungary, Poland and other EU countries abandoned Lithuania.
The Chinese economy and the US economy are deeply complementary, just look at the increasing trade volume between the two countries every year. This is why the two countries are hostile to each other and their economies cannot always be decoupled.

Well, I know what you're trying to say that is what I'm saying is nonsense. The question you blame is why I say USA and India are bound to break up. You think India, like China, has a population of 1.4 billion, and its economy is complementary to that of USA.

First of all, I want to tell you that the nature of China's economy is different from that of India's economy. China is an export-oriented economy and India is an inward oriented economy. China's industry accounts for more than 50% of the economy, while India's service industry accounts for more than 50% of the economy. USA is also an inward looking economy, with its service industry accounting for about 80% of the economy.
Export oriented economies rely on exports, while inward oriented economies rely on imports, so the US economy does not need India. On the contrary, both the Indian economy and the US economy need China. You might say that India can also transform into an export-oriented economy, but this is almost impossible.
The reason why China is an export-oriented economy is determined by China's social conditions. Similarly, India's social conditions determine that India must be an inward oriented economy.
In fact, India's efforts to reform its outward facing economy began in 2006, not 2014. Although India's manufacturing industry has made progress with the development of economy, the development of service industry is faster, the nature of India's economy has not changed.
India's social problems have restricted the development speed of India's manufacturing industry. Even in 2018, China took the initiative to transfer labor-intensive industries abroad because of population stop growth, Modi and Indian media vigorously publicized the Indian market, and trump and Japan actively supported India. Joint efforts in the three directions, but the reality is that the low-end manufacturing industry represented by garment manufacturing, agricultural product processing and electronic product assembly line is transferring to ASEAN, Bangladesh and other countries, not India. Like the problems encountered by China when implementing CPEC in Pakistan, India has the same and more serious problems, such as weak infrastructure, low education level of workers, poor physical quality&low life expectancy, low status of women&insufficient labor liberation, frequent terrorist attacks&insecure investment security, strong local forces&corrupt and cumbersome investment channels, etc.
Solving these problems requires social reform based on agricultural reform, continuous investment and a lot of time. However, western capital is different from Chinese capital guided by the government, they lack patience and long-term planning, and Pakistan needs far less investment than India, so Pakistan still has hope of success.
So subsequently, modi started agricultural reform ahead of schedule, which was almost the last effort of India's industrialization transformation and modi's last gamble. Because every industrialized country has completed social reform through agricultural reform, which is the basis of a country's industrialization. However, under the interference of the combination of vested interest groups in India and foreign political forces, modi still failed.
Now, India's transformation efforts have completely failed, even if India's economy will continue to grow, most of it is based on the growth of services rather than manufacturing. The continuously depreciating Indian currency, countries such as Japan that no longer give support (turning to countries such as Vietnam), and the low rated Indian economy and debt show that the world has given up its efforts to India.

I know you will begin to talk about the common values and similar social systems of USA and India, but this is precisely the reason why USA is bound to break with India.
With a population of 1.4 billion, India's final economic scale is bound to be close to or even surpass USA. However, you need to understand one truth:
China's economic surpassing the United States will not end American hegemony, and China's and India's economic surpassing USA together will inevitably end American hegemony.
Do you think common values mean you must have a geopolitical allies?
You may not know that after WW II, USA first attacked the colonial problems of European countries such as Britain and France and disintegrated their overseas forces, USA even did not hesitate to join hands with USSR to seize British and French control of the Suez Canal.
After the end of the Korean War, USSR soon asked for troops to be stationed in China in an attempt to control China. After being rejected by China, USSR immediately severed diplomatic relations with China.

I think you should understand something: Trump can only prevent Biden from becoming president of USA, but Sanders can turn Biden into a second-rate politician in USA. Similarly, when India's economy grows to a certain extent (in 1985, the Japanese economy was equivalent to 40% of the US economy, and USA began to suppress Japan), USA must give priority to attacking the Indian economy. This will also lead to a break between the two countries or India's submission.

 

[satyamev]

Most Chinese including myself know little about Indian politics so I can't comment much, what we've seen is the widespread loyalty towards the west and extreme hostility towards China & Pakistan in mainstream India (government, media, social app, etc), let alone physical conflicts. You are right, economy is the ultimate goal, and a prosperous regional economic future can't be achieved in a dangerous presence. That's why in my opinion actions should be taken asap for the sake of all peace-loving people in the region, not to cure the symptoms but to eradicate root of the problem.

Don't believe a word about your ignorance of Indian politics. You are just being cute.
Till the late 90s India was under sanctions by the US , including our civilian space agency, while Pakistan was ofcourse a longterm American and British ally.
Some sanctions were put on Pakistan as a eyewash but the Pakistani nuclear weapons program is as much a western gift as it's a Chinese collaboration. The Americans certified yearly for nearly a decade in the 80s that the Pakistanis were not developing nukes , to further their Afghanistan interests.
Funnily while the indian space agency was under sanctions, the Chinese were getting assistance in analysis of their launch failures in the 90s from the Americans.
The Pakistan hostility started from kargil, that converted a lot of Indians to the dark side , while the Chinese were not in the Indian consciousness except as a manufacturer of cheap goods. Ofcourse now its different.

 

[TheSolution]

The Pakistan hostility started from kargil, that converted a lot of Indians to the dark side , while the Chinese were not in the Indian consciousness except as a manufacturer of cheap goods.

Are you sure it wasn't after 1948? When we invaded Kashmir one year after our independence?

 

[xyxmt]

It's split actually, I'd say it's 50/50, don't underestimate how much some can hate America, I'd even say it's in favour of China. Keep in mind PDF has a large portion of foreign nationals, not Pakistani citizens.

But what matters is the policy makers' opinion, which will be neutral. We are not in a position to be choosing sides.

Pakistanis including majority ex-pats living in the western countries do hate West for their attitude towards Muslims. They are not in love with China because they are looking at China from outside Pakistan thru their interaction with Chinese living among them. Those living in the west know more about Westerns then about Chinese mainly because they all belong to abrahamic religion whereas we know nothing about Chinese history and religion baring Chinese new year.

 

[satyamev]

The economic base determines the superstructure. This is why countries such as Pakistan cannot live without USA, which is Pakistan's largest exporter. This is also why foreign Pakistanis generally tend to USA, their personal interests are tied to the U.S. economy. This is also the reason why Germany, Hungary, Poland and other EU countries abandoned Lithuania.
The Chinese economy and the US economy are deeply complementary, just look at the increasing trade volume between the two countries every year. This is why the two countries are hostile to each other and their economies cannot always be decoupled.

Well, I know what you're trying to say that is what I'm saying is nonsense. The question you blame is why I say USA and India are bound to break up. You think India, like China, has a population of 1.4 billion, and its economy is complementary to that of USA.

First of all, I want to tell you that the nature of China's economy is different from that of India's economy. China is an export-oriented economy and India is an inward oriented economy. China's industry accounts for more than 50% of the economy, while India's service industry accounts for more than 50% of the economy. USA is also an inward looking economy, with its service industry accounting for about 80% of the economy.
Export oriented economies rely on exports, while inward oriented economies rely on imports, so the US economy does not need India. On the contrary, both the Indian economy and the US economy need China. You might say that India can also transform into an export-oriented economy, but this is almost impossible.
The reason why China is an export-oriented economy is determined by China's social conditions. Similarly, India's social conditions determine that India must be an inward oriented economy.
In fact, India's efforts to reform its outward facing economy began in 2006, not 2014. Although India's manufacturing industry has made progress with the development of economy, the development of service industry is faster, the nature of India's economy has not changed.
India's social problems have restricted the development speed of India's manufacturing industry. Even in 2018, China took the initiative to transfer labor-intensive industries abroad because of population stop growth, Modi and Indian media vigorously publicized the Indian market, and trump and Japan actively supported India. Joint efforts in the three directions, but the reality is that the low-end manufacturing industry represented by garment manufacturing, agricultural product processing and electronic product assembly line is transferring to ASEAN, Bangladesh and other countries, not India. Like the problems encountered by China when implementing CPEC in Pakistan, India has the same and more serious problems, such as weak infrastructure, low education level of workers, poor physical quality&low life expectancy, low status of women&insufficient labor liberation, frequent terrorist attacks&insecure investment security, strong local forces&corrupt and cumbersome investment channels, etc.
Subsequently, modi started agricultural reform ahead of schedule, which was almost the last effort of India's industrialization transformation and modi's last gamble. Because every industrialized country has completed social reform through agricultural reform, which is the basis of a country's industrialization. However, under the interference of the combination of vested interest groups in India and foreign political forces, modi still failed.
Now, India's transformation efforts have completely failed, even if India's economy will continue to grow, most of it is based on the growth of services rather than manufacturing. The continuously depreciating Indian currency, countries such as Japan that no longer give support (turning to countries such as Vietnam), and the low rated Indian economy and debt show that the world has given up its efforts to India.

I know you will begin to talk about the common values and similar social systems of USA and India, but this is precisely the reason why USA is bound to break with India.
With a population of 1.4 billion, India's final economic scale is bound to be close to or even surpass USA. However, you need to understand one truth:
China's economic surpassing the United States will not end American hegemony, and China's and India's economic surpassing USA together will inevitably end American hegemony.
Do you think common values mean you must have a geopolitical allies?
You may not know that after WW II, USA first attacked the colonial problems of European countries such as Britain and France and disintegrated their overseas forces, USA even did not hesitate to join hands with USSR to seize British and French control of the Suez Canal.
After the end of the Korean War, USSR soon asked for troops to be stationed in China in an attempt to control China. After being rejected by China, USSR immediately severed diplomatic relations with China.

I think you should understand something: Trump can only prevent Biden from becoming president of USA, but Sanders can turn Biden into a second-rate politician in USA. Similarly, when India's economy grows to a certain extent (in 1985, the Japanese economy was equivalent to 40% of the US economy, and USA began to suppress Japan), USA must give priority to attacking the Indian economy. This will also lead to a break between the two countries or India's submission.

Your assumption that economic competition equals military or strategic animosity is wrong.
USA , Europe and Japan were in deep economic competition and are in deep competition even now.
But their is no real sign of that transforming into a military conflict.
Trump was very vocal against India due to our tariffs but still our strategic relationship showed a steady uptick.
Even china with it's very aggressive economic and military stance maintains a more or less stable economic relationship with the west.
Pakistan somehow feels it has to belong to a particular camp , or it's being disloyal, is childish behavior. And this is exploited by others.
The Pakistan military understands this well but the present civilian government has too many opinionated people , disturbing the balance with their loose comments.

Are you sure it wasn't after 1948? When we invaded Kashmir one year after our independence?

You are being facetious but in 1948 our relations were in anycase bad.
Kargil and then Mumbai were watershed moments for neutral indians. All before bjp under modi came to the centre. Actually these accelerated his rise to the PM ship.

 

[etylo]

they'll try to as much as they can unless US pushes pak into a corner of "choosing"
where you know choice is obvious

(also PDF isn't exactly representitive of Pak society as many are from Pak-western diaspora)

judging by the animosity and some hatreds shown by some Pakistani PDF members under Pakistani flags shown towards China, it's not surprising that Chinese nationals have been under terrorists attacks many times in the past years in Pakistan. There is definitely a significant percentage of religious extremists population of Pakistan who are totally against China, otherwise there wouldn't be any fertile grounds in the country for the terrorists to carry out their activities against Chinese.

 

[AZMwi]

unfortunately the pakistani elite is still in love with USA.

 

[khansaheeb]

Just brother... "Big" is insulting and sounds hegomonic

Bigger in every way and China has respect of a big brother,

 

[Maula Jatt]

judging by the animosity and some hatreds shown by some Pakistani PDF members under Pakistani flags shown towards China, it's not surprising that Chinese nationals have been under terrorists attack many times in the past years in Pakistan. There is definitely a significant percent of religious extremists of Pakistan who are totally against China, otherwise there wouldn't be any futile grounds in the country for the terrorists to carry out their activities against Chinese.

Unfortunately Happens because we live in a bad, hostile neighborhood sharing a very long border with Afghanistan

Chapter 4. Views of China

China’s overall image is positive in most of the nations surveyed, with European views, in particular, improving over the past year. In Asia, opinion is

www.pewresearch.org

Bigger in every way and China has respect of a big brother,

It's hegomonic and disrespectful, small brother is meant in subservient way

 

[etylo]

The economic base determines the superstructure. This is why countries such as Pakistan cannot live without USA, which is Pakistan's largest exporter. This is also why foreign Pakistanis generally tend to USA, their personal interests are tied to the U.S. economy. This is also the reason why Germany, Hungary, Poland and other EU countries abandoned Lithuania.
The Chinese economy and the US economy are deeply complementary, just look at the increasing trade volume between the two countries every year. This is why the two countries are hostile to each other and their economies cannot always be decoupled.

Well, I know what you're trying to say that is what I'm saying is nonsense. The question you blame is why I say USA and India are bound to break up. You think India, like China, has a population of 1.4 billion, and its economy is complementary to that of USA.

First of all, I want to tell you that the nature of China's economy is different from that of India's economy. China is an export-oriented economy and India is an inward oriented economy. China's industry accounts for more than 50% of the economy, while India's service industry accounts for more than 50% of the economy. USA is also an inward looking economy, with its service industry accounting for about 80% of the economy.
Export oriented economies rely on exports, while inward oriented economies rely on imports, so the US economy does not need India. On the contrary, both the Indian economy and the US economy need China. You might say that India can also transform into an export-oriented economy, but this is almost impossible.
The reason why China is an export-oriented economy is determined by China's social conditions. Similarly, India's social conditions determine that India must be an inward oriented economy.
In fact, India's efforts to reform its outward facing economy began in 2006, not 2014. Although India's manufacturing industry has made progress with the development of economy, the development of service industry is faster, the nature of India's economy has not changed.
India's social problems have restricted the development speed of India's manufacturing industry. Even in 2018, China took the initiative to transfer labor-intensive industries abroad because of population stop growth, Modi and Indian media vigorously publicized the Indian market, and trump and Japan actively supported India. Joint efforts in the three directions, but the reality is that the low-end manufacturing industry represented by garment manufacturing, agricultural product processing and electronic product assembly line is transferring to ASEAN, Bangladesh and other countries, not India. Like the problems encountered by China when implementing CPEC in Pakistan, India has the same and more serious problems, such as weak infrastructure, low education level of workers, poor physical quality&low life expectancy, low status of women&insufficient labor liberation, frequent terrorist attacks&insecure investment security, strong local forces&corrupt and cumbersome investment channels, etc.
Solving these problems requires social reform based on agricultural reform, continuous investment and a lot of time. However, western capital is different from Chinese capital guided by the government, they lack patience and long-term planning, and Pakistan needs far less investment than India, so Pakistan still has hope of success.
So subsequently, modi started agricultural reform ahead of schedule, which was almost the last effort of India's industrialization transformation and modi's last gamble. Because every industrialized country has completed social reform through agricultural reform, which is the basis of a country's industrialization. However, under the interference of the combination of vested interest groups in India and foreign political forces, modi still failed.
Now, India's transformation efforts have completely failed, even if India's economy will continue to grow, most of it is based on the growth of services rather than manufacturing. The continuously depreciating Indian currency, countries such as Japan that no longer give support (turning to countries such as Vietnam), and the low rated Indian economy and debt show that the world has given up its efforts to India.

I know you will begin to talk about the common values and similar social systems of USA and India, but this is precisely the reason why USA is bound to break with India.
With a population of 1.4 billion, India's final economic scale is bound to be close to or even surpass USA. However, you need to understand one truth:
China's economic surpassing the United States will not end American hegemony, and China's and India's economic surpassing USA together will inevitably end American hegemony.
Do you think common values mean you must have a geopolitical allies?
You may not know that after WW II, USA first attacked the colonial problems of European countries such as Britain and France and disintegrated their overseas forces, USA even did not hesitate to join hands with USSR to seize British and French control of the Suez Canal.
After the end of the Korean War, USSR soon asked for troops to be stationed in China in an attempt to control China. After being rejected by China, USSR immediately severed diplomatic relations with China.

I think you should understand something: Trump can only prevent Biden from becoming president of USA, but Sanders can turn Biden into a second-rate politician in USA. Similarly, when India's economy grows to a certain extent (in 1985, the Japanese economy was equivalent to 40% of the US economy, and USA began to suppress Japan), USA must give priority to attacking the Indian economy. This will also lead to a break between the two countries or India's submission.

for every country, security or the country's survival always comes before economy and wealth, no exception.

 

[Longhorn]

PDF = mostly diaspora or middle class or higher Pakistanis
Pakistan in reality = large middle and low class who hate west. Upper class sucks off west though. Diaspora living in west is going to naturally favour west.
Pakistanis in Pakistan majority hate west though and see west as enemies of Islam as well. Pakistanis in Pakistan are majority conservative religious and hate west for all the atrocities it’s done against Muslims. In majority Pakistanis in Pakistan prefer China over west

Not necessarily true, IMO.

 

[SaadH]

American demographics are changing heavily in favour of hispanic and blacks because they immigrate to america and have big families. Hispanics and blacks don't give a sh1t about China in fact most respect China. I think China and America will have similar relations to China and Brazil/Mexico in the future.

Hispanic and Black voters will continue to be marginalized and disenfranchised, their votes don't and won't count.

 

[Mentee]

This guy is suspicious, I feel he serves an ulterior purpose here...

Exaggerates a lot of things and severely underplays India's capability

@MastanKhan
The H in the hype clicked with me when Mr paraween quoted a u.s tech guy about the a.i gap gradually shifting in China's favour by 2030 -----

 

[MH.Yang]

I have seen wide cross section of Chinese over the years in UK. One thing they all exhibit - absolute love of western culture. They lap it up like a whale laps up water only they have bigger appetite. Western brands, Western fashion, Western icons of heritage etc are lapped up with money. Your typical Vic Chong, Susie Wong etc will trip around in awe of Western culture and artifacts. Just visit London and they are keeping London's tourism industry floating with crowds of Chinese taking clicks of London sites.

This is a aspect all East Asians display - worship of Western culture and I expect soon the Chinese will follow the Koreans and Japanes in indulging in that priceless product - having surgery to get Western 'eyes'.

Chinese females fetish over white Western guys only can be matched by black man fetish for Blonde bimbos. I have a friend who was a hair stylist in HK of Pakistani descent. I told me a lot about the prevalent racism of Chinese againsat desis but awe of Western people.

These are facts that many smoking the iron brother intoxicant might ovelook but is the REALITY which which will hit most Pakistan over the next decade as long distace love is replaced by close distance familiarity and contempt.

The Chinese on the mainland are very different from the people of Hong Kong and Taiwan. Hong Kong people have been colonized by the British for 99 years. The Taiwan govt has been rejecting Chinese culture by promoting western culture. You should contact Chinese people from the mainland.
I admit that there are great differences between Chinese and Pakistanis. Short term relationship and chatting online may be good friends, but if they are in a residential area, these differences may damage their relationship.